Sunday, February 09, 2020
Will CoronaVirus Pandemic Trigger a Stocks Bear Market 2020? Part1 / Stock-Markets / Pandemic
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The stock market is confounding growing Coronavirus fears by recovering all of the late January's drop in the wake of Coronavirus news out of China that started global alarm bells ringing of what could transpire right across the world. The Dow retraced all of its drop from 29400 to 28200 to Thursday's high of 29408, a new all time high! Clearly where the markets are concerned it's a case of virus? What virus? So discounting the Coronavirus as background noise, unlikely to have any significant economic or market events outside of a few cities in China, are the markets wrong?
That and the Democrats busted flush Impeachment of Trump that clearly did not have a hope in hells chances of succeeding given that the Democrats only managed to convince 1 Republican senator (Mick Romney) to vote for Impeachment, so reduced political uncertainties resolves in market calm before the Coronavirus storm? Find out as I chart the prospects for the Dow's trend over the next couple of months.
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Sunday, February 09, 2020
Could Silver Break-out like it did in 2011? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Richard_Mills
Silver is expected to begin the 2020s newly burnished, through a combination of higher industrial and investment demand, and tightened supply owing to mine production issues and output cuts. If it does, it would be the continuation of a trend that started last year.
2019 was an excellent year for gold and silver. Both metals began to run last summer after the US Federal Reserve started cutting interest rates. In July the Fed lowered rates three times before freezing the (benchmark) federal funds rate at a range of 1.5 - 1.75% in November. The market is reportedly expecting multiple cuts in 2020.
That, along with similarly dovish policies among other central banks, a record $17-trillion of negative-yielding sovereign bonds, and fresh safe haven demand due to tensions with Iran, and a lack of progress on trade talks, to name two key issues, powered precious metals to new heights.
Spot gold and silver both peaked in early September at a respective $1,552.00/oz and $19.67/oz. Taking a long-term view of silver and gold prices reveals that the precious metals move in almost identical patterns. Over the last year gold and silver have each gained about 25% (trough to peak); over the last five years gold gained 45% to silver’s 40%.
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Sunday, February 09, 2020
The End of the Global Economy / Economics / Global Economy
By: Richard_Mills
The Trump administration has just granted its Commerce Department sweeping powers to slap tariffs on countries it decides are manipulating their currencies to the detriment of the United States and its exporting companies.
For some this will come as news; at AOTH, it is confirmation that our earlier warning, reported here, has come true.
In our article ‘US prepares for currency war’, we warned readers about these new powers when they were first proposed by the US government several months ago, amid its trade war with China.
The Commerce Department now says it will proceed with the plan, which gives Commerce a wide scope of power to decide whether or not a country is under-cutting US exporters by keeping its currency artificially low. Whereas Commerce normally follows the advice of the Treasury Department - which issues a twice-yearly report to Congress on suspected currency manipulators - on whether to impose trade sanctions, the new rules allow Commerce to slap duties on goods from accused countries and individual businesses, even in cases where the Treasury did not find them to be guilty of currency manipulation. Bloomberg neatly explains what broadening the Commerce Department’s mandate to impose anti-subsidy duties could mean:
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Sunday, February 09, 2020
Fed to Stimulate in Any Crisis; Don’t Let Short-Term Events Bother You / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020
By: MoneyMetals
Mike Gleason: It is my privilege now to welcome in Axel Merk President and Chief Investment Officer of Merk Investments and author of the book Sustainable Wealth. Axel is a well-known market commentator and money manager and is a highly sought-after guest at financial conferences and on news outlets throughout the world and it's always great to have him on with us here on the Money Metals Podcast.
Axel, it's a pleasure to have you back and thanks for joining us again. Welcome.
Axel Merk: Good to be with you.
Mike Gleason: Well, I'd like to start by getting your take on the coronavirus since that has been dominating headlines in recent days. There is an awful lot of speculation about how markets might be impacted. Some people think it is a tempest in a teapot, others think the apocalypse is upon us. Everyone has to rely on data coming out of China, which is always a dodgy proposition, but what are your thoughts about the virus and what it could mean for financial markets in the weeks and months ahead?
Saturday, February 08, 2020
Is The Coronavirus bullish for Stocks? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Earnings volatility has certainly been big. Tesla pushed the markets much higher early this week and the US stock markets have continued the upward momentum after the State Of The Union address and the acquittal of President Trump on Wednesday. Still, we continue to believe this rally may be a “fake-out” rally with respect to the fallout from the Wuhan virus. Certainly, foreign investors are continuing to pour capital into the US stock market as the strength of the US Dollar and the strong US economy is drawing investment from all areas of the globe.
We believe the scope of this parabolic rally in the US stock market should actually concern skilled traders. Markets just don’t go straight up for very long. The last time this happened was in the 1970s and 1980s. Very minor volatility during that time prompted a big move higher in the US stock market that set up the eventual DOT COM collapse.
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Saturday, February 08, 2020
Ryzen 9 3950X Best UK Custom PC Builder 2020 - Scan.co.uk vs Overclockers.co.uk / Personal_Finance / Technology
By: HGR
Which is Britain's best value for money custom builder for a high spec PC that for early 2020 must be based on AMD's Ryzen 9 3950x, a 16 cores 32 thread Zen 2 7nm CPU that blasts everything else away in the market right now in terms of price vs performance.
So I imagine for most contemplating upgrading their ageing desk systems will be wondering should we go down the risky self build route or let the professionals handle it, which could be especially wise if you have either never built a PC before or it has been many, many years since one last plugged in an athlon into a CPU socket, the last thing you want to do is to experiment with £2000+ worth of kit!
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Saturday, February 08, 2020
Warwick University Offer Holders Open Days 2020 - Visitors Car Park 15 Parking / Personal_Finance / Education
By: Sami_Walayat
So you will soon be off to Warwick University to attend the offer holders open day. A must is to book your parking slot at the University, as it can be a nightmare to park if you haven't as single and double yellow lines rule, you won't find a yellow line free curb anywhere!
Anyway you've got your parking pass printed and have arrived at the University, however it's not entirely clear where Car Park 15 is, all you know it's a multi-story one of many and the signs are not clear, so it can be a but daunting on ones first visit. So find out exactly where Car Park 15 is and where your expected to park right at the very top of the multi-story car park, be especially careful towards the end because it's a tight squeeze especially for SUV's!
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Saturday, February 08, 2020
The Historical Impact of Recessions on Gambling Activity / Economics / Gambling
By: Submissions
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Saturday, February 08, 2020
UK Points-Based Immigration and Its Effect on the Job Market / Personal_Finance / Employment
By: Submissions
When the UK exits from the European Union (EU), freedom of movement ceases, and EU citizens will not be able to come in the UK to live, work or study under the existing immigration rules – and vice versa.
This means a new immigration system will be needed to enable those wanting to come and contribute to the UK to do so. As was proposed in Brexit debates and is still favoured today by the UK Government, a points-based immigration system is likely.
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Friday, February 07, 2020
British Pound GBP Long-term Trend Analysis / Currencies / British Pound
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This is part 3 of my British Pound Analysis that concludes in a detailed trend forecast for 2020
- British Pound 2019 Review (Part1)
- Political Implications
- Fundamentals
- US Dollar Index
- GBP Long-term analysis
- GBP Trend Analysis
- Elliott Wave Theory
- GBP 2020 Forecast Conclusion
However the whole of analysis was first made available to Patrons who support my work: British Pound GBP Trend Forecast 2020
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Friday, February 07, 2020
The Case for Buying Precious Metals / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: The_Gold_Report
Maurice Jackson of Proven and Probable speaks with Andy Schectman, president of Miles Franklin Precious Metals Investments, about the rationale for buying precious metals and the best values at this time.
Maurice Jackson: Joining us for a conversation is Andy Schectman, the president of Miles Franklin Precious Metals Investments. Recently we discussed the prudence of implementing ratios as an effective strategy for readers in identifying buy and sale signals for their precious metals portfolio. Today we're going to expand the narrative further on buy signals and discuss the best values right now, what to buy should we experience a broken-down system, and a very important topic protecting your financial legacy. Before we begin, Mr. Schectman, for first time readers, who is Miles Franklin Precious Metals Investments?
Andy Schectman: This month Miles Franklin is celebrating our 30th year in business in Minneapolis. We're a family owned company. We have eclipsed $6 billion in transactions without ever having a customer complaint, ever. We maintain an A+ rating with the Better Business Bureau. We're one of fewer than 25 companies ever approved by the United States Mint as an authorized reseller of their product and in a federally non-regulated industry and we're very proud of that reputation. We really are an association with people like yourself and Rick Rule and other icons in the industry. We're very proud of all of our accolades and of our reputation, but the state of Minnesota where we're located could care less about our reputation.
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Friday, February 07, 2020
Vacuum Cleaner Features You Need To Know / Personal_Finance / Shopping
By: Submissions
A vacuum cleaner is a basic household appliance that is a must-have in most homes. It is a simple appliance yet comes in handy when cleaning dust, debris, as well as other small particles. It uses suction to clean dirt off the carpet and couches.
Over the past few years, vacuum cleaners have undergone some technological advancements. These advancements have changed the overall functioning of vacuum cleaners making them more efficient.
Friday, February 07, 2020
How to Shrink Financial Market "Maybes" Down to a Minimum / Stock-Markets / Elliott Wave Theory
By: EWI
No analytical method can offer 100% clarity about the market's future.
Yet critics of technical analysis, particularly Elliott waves, say that popular technical methods fail if they don't do just that. Of course, that's unreasonable. Perhaps you've noticed that the critics don't hold other analytical methods -- not least of all fundamental analysis -- to such an impossible standard.
However, as the Wall Street classic Elliott Wave Principle explains, Elliott wave analysis does offer what other market assessment methods do not:
What the Wave Principle provides is a means of first limiting the possibilities and then ordering the relative probabilities of possible future market paths. Elliott's highly specific rules reduce the number of valid alternatives to a minimum.
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Friday, February 07, 2020
Stock Market Broad Sector Rotation Starts In 60+ Days – Part I / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
We have been writing about the strong potential for a deeper market rotation in the US and global markets for well over 60+ days. In fact, our researchers predicted an August 2019 breakdown date based on Super-Cycle patterns that, eventually, pushed into 2020 as the US/China trade negotiations and other global news kept global markets in a low volatility bullish trend throughout the end of 2019.
We’ve highlighted some of our research posts over the past 30+ days to help illustrate the technical and price patterns that our research team has identified and shared.
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Thursday, February 06, 2020
Gold Resists Soaring USD – The Show’s Not Over Yet / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: P_Radomski_CFA
The precious metals market didn’t do much yesterday, but – what may seem surprising - that’s quite bullish. It’s bullish, because the USD Index rallied to new yearly highs and this “should have” caused the PMs and miners to decline. It didn’t, which suggests that the decline is not yet ripe for continuation.
In this case, the most likely scenario is that we’ll see another rebound in gold, silver, and mining stocks as soon as the USD Index corrects. Then, PMs could form their final top, and the big decline could begin.
Alternatively, this cycle of back and forth movement could continue a bit longer. Gold could spike, but only if the coronavirus scare gets much worse, as we outlined yesterday. If that happens, silver and miners are not likely to be affected to the same extent as gold – just like what happened in 2014 during the ebola scare.
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Thursday, February 06, 2020
Microsoft Made the Same Move That Launched Amazon 3,848% / Companies / Microsoft
By: Stephen_McBride
Have you seen Microsoft stock lately? It’s shot off like a geyser, tripling in value in the last few years.
You rarely see such humongous companies soar like that. Since 2015, Microsoft has added $800 billion to its market cap—the equivalent of 5.5 Netflix’s!
In this article, I’ll let you in on Microsoft’s “master plan” that’s driving its stock to the moon. As you’ll see, the company has quietly gone “all in” on one lucrative but under-the-radar business. Amazon made this same move in 2006 and leapt 3,848%, as you can see below:
Thursday, February 06, 2020
TESLA vs Bitcoin WTF Chart / Companies / Liquidity Bubble
By: The_Gold_Report
Bob Moriarty of 321gold provides three charts for readers.
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Thursday, February 06, 2020
Is the Stock Market Out of the Woods Now? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Having opened with a sizable gap, stocks scored sizable gains yesterday. The reversal higher makes one think that we’ve seen a bullish turn. And the short-term outlook has certainly turned more to the bullish side of the spectrum. Let’s assess what the recent market developments mean for stocks’ technical outlook.We’ll start by looking at the current week in progress (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).
Thursday, February 06, 2020
In-the-Know Investors Are Making a Killing Off America’s Fast Growing Cyber Crime / Companies / Cyber Crime
By: Stephen_McBride
Last week, news broke that Amazon (AMZN) CEO Jeff Bezos’ phone was hacked by Saudi Arabia.
Rumor has it the hackers sent Bezos a malicious file in a private message. They threatened to steal everything: emails, business secrets, private messages, even nude photos.
You’d think if there was one guy on earth who was “unhackable”, it’d be Bezos. Not only is he the richest person in history, he’s a tech genius, the head of arguably the world’s most powerful tech company.
He has an army of computer geniuses whose sole job is to secure Amazon’s computer systems from hackers. And his iPhone was still hacked!
Thursday, February 06, 2020
Downside Risk in Precious Metals / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne
Last week we noted that the risks in precious metals were primarily technical.
Sentiment and technicals urge caution over the short-term.
The net speculative position in Gold has remained high for months while the 21-day daily sentiment index (DSI) hit 81%. Since the sector peak five months ago, Silver and the gold stocks have corrected in price while Gold has made a new high.
That non-confirmation has persisted and even recently as odds for rate cuts have increased. Last Friday, the market was showing an 89% chance of at least one cut and 61% chance of at least two cuts.
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