Tuesday, September 03, 2019
The Stock Market Is Not Looking Healthy / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Avi_Gilburt
I am often asked to provide a sample of the analysis I provide to members. So, in this week’s article regarding the stock market, I chose to reproduce the general discussion I provided within my analysis posted to members on Saturday night. Please understand that my detailed charts and the discussion of the specific smaller degree analysis is being left out from this public update, and is only available to members.
Back in the 1930s, an accountant named Ralph Nelson Elliott discovered that financial markets are fractal in nature. This means that they are variably self-similar at different degrees of trend.
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Tuesday, September 03, 2019
Stock Market Trend Forecasts When Mega-Trends Collide / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Dow chart says it all in terms of the volatile month of August we have just witnessed in the count down to the expiry of my 6 month long Dow stock forecast trend forecast as of 1st March 2019. During the month the Dow traded down from near its all time closing high of 27,359 (16th July 2019), trading down to a low 25,300 with the most recent price action attempting to break out of August's trading range of between 26,400 and 25,300 by closing at 26,403.
Tuesday, September 03, 2019
Americans DEMORALIZED, DEPRESSED, DETACHED & DEFIANT / Politics / Social Issues
By: James_Quinn
I’ve now been running The Burning Platform blog for over ten years. It’s been over eleven years since I wrote my first article – Why We Need Ron Paul – in May 2008 during the Republican primaries. I really thought I could change enough minds through my writing to influence voters and help wake up people to the truth about our deteriorating financial situation. I would send op-eds to my local paper, and they would publish them. My articles on Seeking Alpha in 2008/2009 were the most read and commented on their site.
My assessment of the Wall Street banks, coming financial crisis and recession were accurate enough that I was being sought out by Glenn Beck on CNN, Neal Cavuto on Fox, and Maria Bartiromo on CNBC to be interviewed on their shows. I didn’t want that kind of attention, since it would likely have negatively impacted my day job – which actually supported my family.
I had already experienced negative blowback when I predicted the bankruptcy of General Growth Properties in one of my articles. It seems the CFO was a Wharton grad and large donor to the real estate department. He called the Dept. head, who called the Deputy Dean, who called my boss, the CFO. It was at this point where any mention of Wharton was forbidden on my part, or I risked being terminated.
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Tuesday, September 03, 2019
Global Markets Chaos means Precious Metals will Continue to Rise / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Reading the new today of the riots and protests in Hong Kong as well as the military action between Iran and Israel suggests to us that the metals markets are poised for a very big run this week and possibly much further into the future.
This type of Chaos creates a level of uncertainty in the global markets that will prompt a massive surge in the precious metals markets as traders and investors continue to pour into precious metals as a means to hedge against fear and weakness in the global markets. At this point, we believe a move in Gold could easily target $1640 or higher and Silver could target just under $21 over the next 5 to 10 days. This type of move would represent a +7 to 10% rally in Gold and a +10 to 20% rally in Silver.
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Tuesday, September 03, 2019
Looking For A US Bond Market Top / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Avi_Gilburt
Those that have followed my bond analysis since November have made quite a bit of money. While the stock market is basically in the same place it was back in the early fall of 2018 when we went long bonds, TLT has rallied from our entry in the 112/113 region in TLT to a high of almost 149.
Let me take a moment to recap my recent history and perspective on bonds. For those that followed our work over the years, you would know that we called for a top to the bond market on June 27, 2016, with the market striking its highs within a week of our call. Right after that top call, TLT dropped 22%, until we saw the bottoming structure develop in late 2018.
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Tuesday, September 03, 2019
Stock Market in a Holding Pattern / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – Finallong-term phase on the way? How much longer, is the question.
Intermediate trend – We have started a correction of intermediate nature.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
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Monday, September 02, 2019
Could Hong Kong Disrupt China & The Global Markets Further? / Stock-Markets / Chinese Stock Market
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Reading the news this weekend and watching the chaos in Hong Kong, one has to wonder how this violence and disruption in commerce is really affecting the Asian and global markets. Many different news sources are already reporting that Chinese economic data continues to show weakness over the past 4 to 5+ months.
Additionally, Hong Kong, being a strategic source of income and business for the western world, has been disrupted with riots, protests and not violence as a result of a political battle between Chinese rulers and local Hong Kong residents.
It seems obvious to anyone outside of this situation that neither side is about to stop their actions any time soon and that means we are going to experience even further disruptions to the global markets and local markets. Right now, our greatest concern is that the disruption in economic activity in China/Asia will result in a “cold” in the US and other foreign markets.
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Monday, September 02, 2019
U.K. Markets Showing Stable Recovery / Stock-Markets / UK Stock Market
By: Submissions
Recent moves in the U.K market have highlighted deteriorating sentiment levels as a result of continued Brexit uncertainties. However, it can be argued that many in the market have overreacted in response to these events as a limited impact has actually been seen in equities.
As a clear expression of these trends, the U.K. 100 Index retraced some of its prior gains during the trading period that spanned from July to August of this year. In the process of these declines, U.K. stock markets have fallen through their 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages. In most cases, traders will view these types of events as exceedingly bearish.
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Monday, September 02, 2019
Macro Implications, as Silver Takes Leadership From Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Gary_Tanashian
Since we noted the initial move to break the 200 day moving average – and at least temporarily break the downtrend on August 27th – the Silver/Gold ratio (SLV/GLD) has held its breakout, looking to close the week and the month of August on a signal that we have long anticipated.
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Monday, September 02, 2019
Stock Market S&P500 Candlestick Pattern On Friday Signals Price Breakdown / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
As we close out the week and watched the markets trade in a rotational price manner, it became very clear to us that the patterns setting up in price continue to support our overall analysis of the markets and the potential for a bigger downside price move. We issued a call that an August 19th breakdown was expected on or near the trigger date (Aug 19th). We’ve taken some heat from our followers and readers regarding this call and the fact that the markets have yet to really breakdown below current support levels.
As we’ve learned from our experience and previous analysis/calls – the markets can continue to act in ways that run counter to our analysis for much longer and in a much more irrational manner than we can survive the risks associated with any irrational price moves. Yet, at this point, we don’t see anything irrational in the markets – we see opportunity.
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Monday, September 02, 2019
US Housing Market House Prices Trend Forecast Current State / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
It's been a while since my last analysis of the US housing market, in fact a full 3 years, preceded by my original 3 year trend forecast covering November 2012 to early 2016 that forecast a strong a bull market against expectations at the time (and for many subsequent years), for it's forgotten today that in the aftermath of the financial crisis the prevailing view was that the US housing market was dead for a generation, and this not just from the usual perma doom merchants (I don't like to name names but you know who they are!) but was consensus view at the time.
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Monday, September 02, 2019
Back to School Shopping 2019 Money Saving Deals - Tesco vs Morrisons vs Poundland / Personal_Finance / Money Making
By: Anika_Walayat
The best time to get your back to school gear and supplies is to leave your shopping trip to the week before the start of school. The later the better for that's when you can pick up the best discounts, 25%, 50% off school supplies, even discounted by as much as 75%! And then we have the Pound shops that may not discount, but nevertheless stand up well to the super markets.
In this video we take a look at the current money saving deals on school supplies as we count down to the start of School September 2019.
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Sunday, September 01, 2019
Hong King Kong / Politics / Hong Kong
By: Raul_I_Meijer
Of course the notion of addressing Hong Kong has been in my mind for a while, but it’s a bit of a moving target: things change all the time, and seemingly on the fly. However, with today’s fresh developments, it seems silly to wait any longer. Hong Kong Civic party lawmaker Dennis Kwok yesterday expressed the reason way better than I could:
As I said time and again, the use of troops in Hong Kong will be the end of Hong Kong, and I would warn against any such move on the part of the central people’s government.”
He said that before today’s arrests -and subsequent release on bail- of a handful of alleged protest leaders Joshua Wong, Andy Chan, and Agnes Chow. Who, if you read between the lines, didn’t lead much of anything; they may be figure-heads, but that’s not the same thing. The protests are either lacking leaders or everyone’s a leader, depending on who you ask. So why arrest them to begin with? You tell me.
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Sunday, September 01, 2019
Silver is Still Cheap Relative to Gold, Trend Forecast Update / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This is part 2/2 of my Silver Price 2019 trend forecast update - Part1 - Silver Price Tragets for 2019 - Forecast Update
So the Silver big question for 2019 is will the price be capped at resistance at $21 or like the Gold price breakout of its 5 year trading range to target the next resistance area of $25.
Silver is Still Cheap Relative to Gold
6 weeks ago ago the Gold / Silver ratio was trading at an historic extreme of 90.31, at a level not seen for over 25 years! In comparison to the historic average of 50 which on the then Gold price of $1330 would have had the Silver price trading at $26.60. Which illustrated how much of a coiled spring Silver tends to be as it has tendency to swing sharply higher rather than track the Gold price trend.
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Sunday, September 01, 2019
Fed Insider Proposes Using Fed Policy to Punish Trump / Politics / US Federal Reserve Bank
By: MoneyMetals
Everybody knows that President Donald Trump favors larger scale reductions in interest rates. He wants low-cost money injected to help stimulate the economy and stock market ahead of next year’s election.
Of course, Federal Reserve policymakers are supposed to stay out of politics and make their decisions based solely on the economic data before them. But it would be naïve to believe they don’t harbor political biases.
They have been under relentless attack by President Trump. They see his attacks as posing a threat to the so-called “independence” of the Federal Reserve. They may even fear that if he is re-elected he will threaten the existence of the Fed as an institution.
Could the Federal Reserve be deliberately withholding stimulus to try to get Trump defeated?
Sunday, September 01, 2019
Crude Oil’s Failure Leads to a Profitable Opportunity / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Crude oil moved sharply higher yesterday, almost touching the previous August highs, but it didn’t manage to break above them. The resistance that we outlined in the previous Oil Trading Alerts kept the rally in check, and we already see the result. Crude oil simply declines. What’s next? How far can it decline?
In short, the previous outlook remains up-to-date, simply because the situation developed in tune with what we wrote.
Of course, a daily rally appears bullish at the first sight, especially for the inexperienced traders, but this is a false signal. To be clear, a daily rally is not bearish on its own, but it’s not enough to make the situation bullish either. Let’s keep in mind that price tops have to – by definition – happen after a rally, not after a decline… So why is the something-rallied-so-it’s-going-to-rally-again way of thinking so popular? It’s easy to extrapolate the most recent trends into the future as that’s what makes sense… Emotionally. And that’s exactly what makes this business hard in the long run. One of the most difficult trading tips one needs to adhere to in order to make money is that one usually needs to act against what seems so obvious at the first sight.
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Saturday, August 31, 2019
King Dollar Global Reserve Paradox / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Jim_Willie_CB
An intriguing paradox is evident, whereby the USDollar continues to rise despite the global economic recession. In fact, it can be argued that the USDollar is rising in the past several months, because of the global recession. On a worldwide basis, the economy is struggling badly, especially in the West. Worse still, without a doubt, the rising USDollar is destroying the individual economies of smaller nations, one by one. The King Dollar is truly an economic machete. Numerous factors are at work. All contribute toward the continued rise of the USDollar until the systemic breakdown hits both the economy and the financial system. The sign of systemic breakdown is the bond rally, which has taken bond yields into negative territory. Nobody with a working cerebrum can claim that $17 trillion in sovereign bonds sporting negative yields can defend the current system as either normal or stable. The Fed Valuation Model justifies higher stock index values when bond yields are lower, but the model has no modern feature for negative rates. Eventually, and soon, the only beneficiary will be Gold & Silver, along with a few hard assets like diamonds.
Saturday, August 31, 2019
Here’s Why Rising Global Temperatures Are Very Real / Politics / Climate Change
By: Rodney_Johnson
Climate change has continued to be a big topic in the news, especially with record temperatures again this summer. Are humans the primary cause?When this first became a major issue many years ago, I initially was more skeptical of the human impact. I had studied long-term climate cycles and saw how much they’ve varied simply from natural trends. Were we big enough to impact substantially?
The first wake-up call I got was when I looked back at the key very predictable longer-term cycles. Every one of them, from very long to shorter, were pointing towards moderate cooling. Even the shorter-term sunspot cycles keep coming in lower intensity since 1959 – and more so since 1990, which has a cooling effect – and temperatures keep rising anyway!
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Saturday, August 31, 2019
What Do Crashing RV Sales Tell Us About 2020? / Economics / Auto Sector
By: Rodney_Johnson
RV sales are crashing at a year-over-year rate of 20% below sales for the same period last year. 2017 was the peak thus far and 2018 sales were 4% lower. Hence, this year’s crash is making this look like a clear top.RVs are one of our mid-life-to-retirement sectors for Boomers. Sales used to peak at age 63, but the most recent updates to the Consumer Expenditure Survey show them peaking a bit earlier, at age 59-60. That still makes it a strong growth industry into 2020-2021 for aging Boomers.
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Saturday, August 31, 2019
Why Back to School Season Should Scare You / Personal_Finance / Student Finances
By: Rodney_Johnson
It’s that time again – back to school season – when we have to drive a little slower, watch for flashing yellow signs that signal much higher ticket costs, put down our cell phones, and try to remember the rules on when to stop for school buses (always on your side of the road and, if the bus is facing you, when the road doesn’t have a median).But those things aren’t scary, they’re just good safety precautions. The worrisome parts are costs and headcount.
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