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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Economics

Monday, August 05, 2019

FOURTH TURNING ECONOMICS / Economics / US Economy

By: James_Quinn

If you feel you’ve recei“In retrospect, the spark might seem as ominous as a financial crash, as ordinary as a national election, or as trivial as a Tea Party. The catalyst will unfold according to a basic Crisis dynamic that underlies all of these scenarios: An initial spark will trigger a chain reaction of unyielding responses and further emergencies. The core elements of these scenarios (debt, civic decay, global disorder) will matter more than the details, which the catalyst will juxtapose and connect in some unknowable way. If foreign societies are also entering a Fourth Turning, this could accelerate the chain reaction. At home and abroad, these events will reflect the tearing of the civic fabric at points of extreme vulnerability – problem areas where America will have neglected, denied, or delayed needed action.” – The Fourth Turning – Strauss & Howe

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Stock-Markets

Monday, August 05, 2019

Stock Market Intermediate Sell Signal / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX: Long-term trend – Finallong-term phase on the way?  How much longer, is the question.

Intermediate trend –  We have started a correction of intermediate nature.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts.  It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends

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Stock-Markets

Monday, August 05, 2019

Is This The Start Of The Next Stocks Bear Market? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Over the past few days, we’ve received hundreds of emails from our followers and members asking if this is the big breakdown that everyone has been expecting in the markets.  Yes, we’ve warned that it will likely happen before the end of 2019, but we’ve also been very clear that we believe an August 19, 2019 price peak will setup this move and our recent research suggest the NQ will rally to levels above 8200 before this peak in the US market sets up.  So, in order to help our members and followers understand what we believe is actually happening in the markets, we’ve put together this research post to help everyone better prepare for the next few weeks and months.

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Politics

Monday, August 05, 2019

A Tale of Two Cummings / Politics / US Politics

By: Raul_I_Meijer

Last weekend, I noticed that two of the main newsmakers were both named Cummings, one in the US, the other in the UK. At first glance they don’t look like family, but I’ll readily admit I can’t be sure of that. What I do know is that both are symbolic of what’s wrong with the political systems they figure in.

Also last weekend, I saw a comment somewhere, think it was Twitter, that said something in the vein of: let’s hope the British don’t make the same mistake with Boris Johnson that the Americans made -and make- with Donald Trump, that is, labeling every single thing he does as “Bad”, because then they would lose all of their credibility, fast.

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Companies

Sunday, August 04, 2019

GOOGLE Alphabet Deep Mind Stock Investing to Profit from Machine Learning / Companies / Google

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Are you ready for the exponential machine intelligence mega-trend?

In this series of videos I present my Top 10 AI stocks to invest in to profit from the exponential machine intelligence mega-trend.

My Top 10 AI stocks are ranked in terms of risk vs reward and volatility. So I consider my Top 5 stocks as primary, then the next 3 as secondary and the last 2 as far more risky tertiary stocks. And remember that when investing in the stock market that your capital is at risk. There are NO SURE BETS!

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Economics

Sunday, August 04, 2019

Trade Tariff Economic Damage Spreading in US, China within Target in H2 2019 / Economics / China US Conflict

By: Dan_Steinbock

In the second half of 2019, US economic prospects will soften, despite the Fed rate cut, whereas Chinese growth target is likely to prevail. It’s time to prepare for diminished global economic prospects in 2019-20.

After an important meeting of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC), participants said that China seeks to make its fiscal policy more effective and to maintain “reasonably ample” liquidity.

Instead of resorting to a stimulus in the real estate market, the emphasis will be on “proactive fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy.” It is a challenging balancing act, but the right stance in the right time.
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Economics

Sunday, August 04, 2019

Why Trump’s Low-dollar Economic Plan Won’t Work / Economics / US Economy

By: Richard_Mills

The slowdown in the United States, and throughout the world, has led many to speculate that the time has come for an intervention in the US economy. 

Despite a healthy stock market and the economy barreling along at near full employment, persistent negative economic indicators have policymakers twitching for some kind of response. 

On Friday US Gross Domestic Product numbers failed to inspire. American GDP grew just 2.1% in the second quarter, compared to a 3.1% gain in Q1. One of the most important takeaways from the official report card on the economy, was the value of inventories, or goods waiting to be sold. It shrank by $44.3 billion, Marketwatch reported, knocking a full percentage point off GDP. 

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Commodities

Sunday, August 04, 2019

Palladium Collapses After Double-Top From Early July 2019 / Commodities / Palladium

By: Chris_Vermeulen

It was almost like Palladium traders followed our research to the letter when the trend reversed on July 11, 2019.  Our research team issued a report indicating a Double-Top pattern was setting up in Palladium on July 3, 2019.  At that time, our proprietary cycle indicators and our proprietary Fibonacci price modeling systems suggested a large downside price swing was highly likely.

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Companies

Saturday, August 03, 2019

GlaxoSmithKline - GSK Life Extension Pharma Stock Investing / Companies / Investing 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

We are currently galloping full speed along an exponential curve that unlike the neural nets of the 1990's, that promised a lot but delivered very little, this time it really looks like we are on the verge of AI success, not only that but it heralds changes in every aspect of our lives most of which we cannot even imagine today, hence the term the singularity is often used, the AI event horizon beyond which we cannot see.

My latest analysis in this series focuses on how to profit and capitalise on the unfolding machine intelligence driven mega-trend through investing in leveraged to AI Human Life Extension stocks.

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Commodities

Saturday, August 03, 2019

Trade Tariffs, Rate Cuts, and Devaluation Whispers Set Up Gold & Silver / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: MoneyMetals

Welcome to this week’s Market Wrap Podcast, I’m Mike Gleason.

Coming up Frank Holmes of US Global Investors joins me to talk about gold, the key driver that will likely take it higher and why we need to be paying more attention to the trendlines than the headlines. Don’t miss another great conversation with the well-traveled and highly respected Frank Holmes, coming up after this week’s market update.

Well, after months of presidential complaining, tweeting, and pressuring, Donald Trump finally got a rate cut from the Fed.

A lower interest rate was supposed to stimulate the stock market and make the dollar cheaper versus the currencies of exporting countries -- thereby making U.S. products more competitive according to Trumponomics. Instead, stocks fell and the U.S. Dollar Index broke out to a two-year high following the Federal Reserve’s policy move on Wednesday.

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Commodities

Saturday, August 03, 2019

Gold Stocks Seasonal Autumn Rally / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019

By: Zeal_LLC

The gold miners’ stocks have surged dramatically this summer, catapulted higher by gold’s major bull-market breakout.  That atypical strength bucking the normal summer-doldrums slump has carried this sector right back to its traditional strong season.  That begins with a robust autumn rally starting in late summers.  This year’s autumn-rally setup is very unusual, but investment buying could still fuel further gains.

Seasonality is the tendency for prices to exhibit recurring patterns at certain times during the calendar year.  While seasonality doesn’t drive price action, it quantifies annually-repeating behavior driven by sentiment, technicals, and fundamentals.  We humans are creatures of habit and herd, which naturally colors our trading decisions.  The calendar year’s passage affects the timing and intensity of buying and selling.

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Personal_Finance

Saturday, August 03, 2019

Most Common Mistakes Made in Escape Rooms / Personal_Finance / Holidays

By: Hillary_Walker

Escape room adventures offer refreshing group entertainment. Like any collective activities, they have their own list of typical errors linked to failed collaboration. Consult our list of five escape room sins before embarking on your next adventure. Newbies and fans alike will benefit from bearing these caveats in mind.

More and more escape rooms are opening all around the world. The Japanese invention is now entertaining people in Asia, USA, Australia, and Europe. Britons have also recognized its benefits. You may find an escape room in London UK at https://komnata.co.uk/london/, with many narratives and themes to pick from. Here are the main things you should try to avoid in any kind of escape room adventure.

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InvestorEducation

Saturday, August 03, 2019

1. Introduction to Artificial Intelligence - AI Getting Started Course for Beginners / InvestorEducation / AI

By: Adnaan_Walayat

Want to get started in Artificial Intelligence? We'll here is the first video in my 10 part course for beginners that covers what you need to know to get started in AI. By the end of which you will be ready to progress onto the next level, creating your own neural networks, where I am already working on the next series of videos as a follow from this beginners course covering:

  1. Introduction to Artificial Intelligence
  2. Defining Artificial Intelligence: what is a neural network?
  3. Components of a neural network
  4. Gradient descent: how machines learn
  5. The Law of Accelerating Returns
  6. AI in image recognition
  7. Medical uses of AI
  8. The Singularity: rise of the super intelligence
  9. Public perception of AI
  10. AI in society
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Stock-Markets

Friday, August 02, 2019

Trump Trade Tariffs US War with China Mega-trend Impact on Stock Markets / Stock-Markets / China US Conflict

By: Nadeem_Walayat

For some reason there are still mainstream media journalists out there going on about how China is winning the trade war against the US. Perhaps they just want to pump out any propaganda that hurts trumps re-election prospects? Or more likely are clueless automatons whose primary purpose is to regurgitate the editorial line of media out fits they represent. Anyway they are still just as wrong as they have been for the duration of the Trump presidency.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, August 02, 2019

Small Cap Stocks Setup A Very Rare & Interesting Price Pattern / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Our researchers have identified a very rare type of price pattern that is typically associated with explosive trend changes and trends.  We call this type of pattern a “Sandwich” pattern because of how price reacts within a range.  The IWM, Russell 2000 ETF, is illustrating a nearly perfect example of this pattern right now.

Daily IWM chart (Russell 2000 Small Cap Index)

This close up view of the Daily IWM chart highlights the Sandwich pattern over the most recent 5 trading days and how price enters this volatile period, rotates around within a range, then settles near the upper or lower end of the range before a price breakout occurs.  Notice the earlier Sandwich pattern setup and how price settled near the bottom of the range before a downside price leg pushed the price much lower.

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Currencies

Friday, August 02, 2019

Facebook Libra Is Nothing More than a Nice Idea / Currencies / BlockChain

By: John_Mauldin

What kind of money will we use in the future?

The answer might seem obvious: dollars, euros, yen, and other government-issued fiat currencies.

Most of us have never known anything else. Yet these currencies aren’t natural phenomena.

People created them. People can also abandon them for something else, just as they abandoned older currencies.

There are good reasons to think we could once again see some fiat currencies disappear. If so, what “something else” will be money in the future?

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Interest-Rates

Friday, August 02, 2019

Post FED US Bond Market Yield Spread Falls Further: Risk Aversion is at the Door / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: QUANTO

All Powell needed to do was cut rates and to soften the blow on the short end of the curve, he needed to speak of the strong economy and that would have controlled the 1 month and 3 month and 2 year yields. Instead he ended up confusing about recovery and talking of nonsensicall comical terms like insurance cut etc. These are jargons that one should never use.

The reaction from the bond market was immediate as the 1 month and 3 month yield jumped sharply. Money was flowing out to the long end which is exactly what Powell didnt want to happen when he said "inflation gets baked in to bond yields". Even as he was saying, that is what was happening. We take a look at some of the charts which define and go beyond normal technical and trend lines for forex. We have always suggested: NEVER TRADE FOREX ON TECHNICAL INDICATORS. THEY ARE LAGGING. TO LOOK BACK AND TRADE FORWARD IS FOOLISHNESS.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, August 02, 2019

The Stock Market Fell and Volatility Spiked. What’s Next / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Troy_Bombardia

The S&P fell Thursday on trade war-related news and volatility spiked. Today’s headlines:

  1. More economic weakness in manufacturing.
  2. Long streak of bad economic surprises
  3. Stock market’s volatility spiked
  4. AAII sentiment
  5. Short term bounce ahead for stocks?
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Commodities

Friday, August 02, 2019

No Sign Yet of Cyclical Inflation and the Gold Miners Don’t Mind a Bit / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Gary_Tanashian

Contrary to majority opinion, gold and especially the gold mining stocks that leverage its macro status are not about inflation, especially cyclical inflation that runs with a positive economy.

Making an appropriate return after a few months on hiatus, ladies and gentlemen… the Macrocosm.

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Currencies

Friday, August 02, 2019

After Fed Disappoints, Will Trump Initiate Currency Intervention? / Currencies / US Dollar

By: MoneyMetals

Following months of cajoling by the White House, the Federal Reserve finally cut its benchmark interest rate. However, the reaction in equity and currency markets was not the one President Donald Trump wanted – or many traders anticipated.

The Trump administration wants the Fed to help drive the fiat U.S. dollar lower versus foreign currencies, especially those of major exporting countries.

Instead, the U.S. Dollar Index rallied throughout July ahead of the expected rate cut and continued rallying after Fed chairman Jerome Powell made it official on Wednesday.

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