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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Politics

Thursday, August 15, 2019

US Government Is Beholden To The Fed; And Vice-Versa / Politics / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: Kelsey_Williams

We hear quite a bit today about the issue of Federal Reserve independence. The crux of the argument usually centers  on monetary policy executed by the Fed versus opinions of politicians and others who want and expect something different, which they believe will provide more favorable results.

President Trump has been ardently vocal in demanding that the Fed be more aggressive in cutting interest rates.  He also wants, and is encouraging, action that would result in a weaker US dollar. He believes that it would be good for American businesses. His reasoning is that a weaker US dollar would make American-made goods more competitive.

Whether or not the President is correct doesn’t matter for purposes of this article. What is important is that there is a wide difference of opinion between the Federal Reserve and its current policies (re: Jerome Powell) as compared to the wishes of the United States government (re: President Trump).

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Currencies

Thursday, August 15, 2019

GBP vs USD Forex Pair Swings Into Focus Amid Brexit Chaos / Currencies / British Pound

By: Submissions

On July 16th Sterling hit its 2019 low of $1.24 against the US Dollar. It wasn’t the biggest surprise, as GBP has been bouncing around the $1.25-$1.26 mark for most of July, and, indeed, sits around that mark at the time of writing one week later.

The drop in Sterling’s value prompted a bit of a reaction on social media, which soon snowballed into hysteria and misinformation. The latter came from a widely shared story on Twitter, which claimed that GBP had reached its lowest rate against USD since 1985. That was, in fact, incorrect, as the Pound was buying $1.22 in January 2017.
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Interest-Rates

Thursday, August 15, 2019

US Negative Interest Rates Go Mainstream - With Some Glaring Omissions / Interest-Rates / Negative Interest Rates

By: Dan_Amerman

The discussion of negative interest rates in the United States has now officially gone mainstream, with the front page of the August 12, 2019 print edition of the Wall Street Journal carrying a prominent discussion of the possibility.

Most of the article consists of various institutional investors talking about why this could be a real possibility. However, as will be explored herein, there were three glaring omissions in the article.

1) What the real source of the negative interest rates would be.

2) The historically unprecedented profits that would be created by such a move.

3) Who those unprecedented profits would mostly go to (and it isn't to the average investor).

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Commodities

Thursday, August 15, 2019

GOLD BULL RUN TREND ANALYSIS / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This is part 2/2 of my Gold price forecast update Gold Price Breakout - Trend Forecast 2019 July Update.

So the gold price has broken out of it's long-term trading range of $1370 to $1150. Which means $1370 should now act as a floor under the Gold price, else it's back into the range for several more years! Next resistance is at just above $1500 and then $1800 which is my long-term target for the Gold price as of December 2016.

Therefore, as I stated in my May analysis, as the Gold price has now overcome resistance of $1350 to $1370 then the Gold price should be propelled higher towards a target of between $1500 to $1530.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, August 15, 2019

US Stock Market Could Fall 12% to 25% / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

In this last segment of our multi-part research post regarding the US Fed and the global central banks, it is becoming evident that the fear of a further market contraction is resulting in the decrease in rates and the push for additional QE functions.  Our research has shown that the global economy has partially recovered from the 2008-09 credit market collapse, but the process of the recovery has resulted in a “blowout” type of event where shifting capital intents and the transition from the 19th century economic model towards a new 21st century economic model is setting up the global markets for a massive rotation event over the next 12 to 24 months – possibly longer.

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Personal_Finance

Thursday, August 15, 2019

A Level Exam Results School Live Reaction Shock 2019! / Personal_Finance / Education

By: Adnaan_Walayat

It's A Level results day today that sees over 200.000 students across England and Wales off to their local school and colleges to pick up their results, to see if they have met the conditions for their University offers or not. If not then it will spark a series of frantic calls to UCAS clearing in an attempt to get a place at likely a different University.

So we were off early to School to see what Adnaan got, will he get his predicted grades? Will he get enough to get into Warwick University? Or will the results turn out to be a shocker! Find out if it's a good or bad shock!

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Commodities

Thursday, August 15, 2019

It's Time to Get Serious about Silver / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: MoneyMetals

The World Silver Survey 2019 Review, the institute’s annual World Silver Survey said that global silver demand hit a three-year high in 2018, surpassing more than one billion ounces, an increase of 4% from 2017.

At the same time, global silver mine production fell for the third straight year, dropping 2% in 2018 to 855.7 million ounces.

The top 10 silver producing countries are: Peru, Bolivia, Australia, Argentina, Mexico, Chile, Poland, China, Russia and Guatemala.

And get this... in every one of these countries, silver production has been falling for the last 4 consecutive years!

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Currencies

Thursday, August 15, 2019

The EagleFX Beginners Guide – Financial Markets / Currencies / Forex Trading

By: Kavinesh_A

A financial market is a market where derivatives at low transaction costs, commodities, foreign exchange and financial securities (bonds, precious metals and stocks) are traded by people. In elementary terms, they can be described as markets where investors make money, companies reduce risks and businesses approach to raise funds for growth. Bonds and currency trading are done mainly on bilateral basis even though some trade on a stock exchange, also recently electronic systems are being built for stock exchange purposes.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, August 14, 2019

Central Banks Move To Keep The Global Markets Party Rolling – Part III / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

This section of our multi-part article regarding current and past central bank actions, we are going to attempt to look at key elements of the past and present to highlight what we believe may turn out to be an incredible “setup” in the global markets. 

This setup is almost like a complex chess game where two skilled players battle for control and near the end of the game, one player is left with the King, a Rook, and a Pawn while the other player has a dramatic advantage with stronger chess pieces.  Yet, as the game continues, the weaker player is able to remove one or two of the stronger players key pieces and move his pawn to his opponent’s side to recover his Queen – thus altering the dynamic of the game and eventually winning.

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Commodities

Wednesday, August 14, 2019

Fool’s Silver: Why Most “Silver Miners” Don’t Live Up to Their Name / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: MoneyMetals

If you buy shares in a silver mining company, you will have to assume additional market risks compared to ownership of silver bullion. You may wish to do so in order to potentially gain leveraged exposure to silver prices.

What you may not realize, however, is that most of the publicly traded “silver” stocks out there are primarily in the business of mining other metals – sometimes gold, often copper, zinc, lead, and other base metals.

Consider Pan American Silver (NYSE:PAAS), a $3.6 billion company that makes up the largest weighting (13.5%) in the Global X Silver Miners ETF (NYSE:SIL).

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, August 14, 2019

You Have to Buy Bonds Even When Interest Rates Are Low / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Jared_Dillian

Interest rates are currently low.

That is by far the biggest concern among bond investors. They are drowning in worry about low interest rates and their effect on bonds. So let’s address that.

Saying interest rates are currently low is another way of saying that bonds are expensive—which makes people not want to invest in bonds. Fair enough.

Stocks are also expensive—but you invest in those!
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Commodities

Wednesday, August 14, 2019

Gold Near Term Risk is Increasing / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

Last week was another strong one for the precious metals sector. 

Gold gained a whopping $51/oz or 3.5%. The gold stocks (GDX, GDXJ) advanced by roughly 6%. Silver gained 4%.

Momentum in the sector began to build once Gold surpassed resistance at $1420-$1425/oz. We had noted the lack of resistance from $1425 to $1525-$1550/oz. 

Gold has not reached $1550/oz yet but as it inches higher, some technical and sentiment indicators are urging caution.

Gold’s net speculative position of 54% is very close to the peaks of 55% to 60% seen since 2000. It’s possible the commercial hedgers will start covering at somepoint like they did in 2006 and 2010 but for now we have to assume they won’t if $1550/oz holds as resistance.

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Personal_Finance

Wednesday, August 14, 2019

Installment Loans vs Personal Bank Loans / Personal_Finance / Debt & Loans

By: Hillary_Walker

...

 


Companies

Wednesday, August 14, 2019

ROCHE - RHHBY Life Extension Pharma Stocks Investing / Companies / Life Extension

By: Nadeem_Walayat

We are currently galloping full speed along an exponential curve that unlike the neural nets of the 1990's, that promised a lot but delivered very little, this time it really looks like we are on the verge of AI success, not only that but it heralds changes in every aspect of our lives most of which we cannot even imagine today, hence the term the singularity is often used, the AI event horizon beyond which we cannot see.

My latest analysis in this series focuses on how to profit and capitalise on the unfolding machine intelligence driven mega-trend through investing in leveraged to AI Human Life Extension stocks.

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Commodities

Wednesday, August 14, 2019

Gold Bulls Must Love the Hong Kong Protests / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

It appears that the two steps forward, one step backwards approach of mainland China isn’t working as Hong Kong citizens are protesting again. The increasingly violent protests have plunged Chinese-ruled Hong Kong into its most serious crisis in decades, and the situation appears to be getting worse every week. What does it imply for the gold market?

Hong Kongers Protest

On Monday, Hong Kong’s Airport Authority canceled flights as demonstrators poured into its main terminal. What is going on in Hong Kong? The protests began over plans that would have allowed extradition from Hong Kong to mainland China. Although the bill was suspended, the protests continue, as people demand democratic reforms. The problem is that although Hong Kong – as a former British colony – still enjoys freedoms not seen in mainland China, they are on the decline. The protesters say that mainland China is meddling in Hong Kong, citing examples such as legal rulings that have disqualified pro-democracy legislators.

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Commodities

Wednesday, August 14, 2019

Gold, Markets and Invasive Species / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: The_Gold_Report

Sector expert Michael Ballanger draws connections between nefarious non-native species in the natural world and in the world markets. Invasive species: Any kind of living organism—an amphibian (like the cane toad), plant, insect, fish, fungus, bacteria, or even an organism's seeds or eggs—that is not native to an ecosystem and causes harm. They can harm the environment, the economy, or even human health.

In the 1830s, a creature called the "sea lamprey" was first detected in Lake Ontario after it was able to migrate from the Finger Lakes of upstate New York by way of the Erie Canal, which was constructed in 1825. In the 1800s the Great Lakes fishing industry harvested over 100 million pounds of fish for both domestic consumption and export before this incredibly creepy creature laid virtual waste to the fishery stock. Within one hundred years, the harvest had dwindled to approximately one-third of its peak as the absence of natural predators allowed it to feast on the Great Lakes fisheries with reckless abandon and unopposed execution.

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Companies

Wednesday, August 14, 2019

Cannabis Stocks With Millennial Appeal / Companies / Cannabis

By: Joshua_Rodriguez

...

 


Stock-Markets

Tuesday, August 13, 2019

August 19 (Crazy Ivan) Stock Market Event Only A Few Days Away / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Our researchers have created this research post to highlight a big price move based on super-cycle research and patterns that should begin on or near August 19, 2019.  Back in April/May 2019, we started warning of a critical top formation we believed was aligned for July 2019.  In May/June, we altered this date to align more closely with our super-cycle research and determined the August 19, 2019 date.

It is our belief that this date will initiate a breakdown price move that may align with external news related or economic related data.  Our research continues to point to the potential for a large global breakdown in equity prices related to some type of near-crisis event.  It could be related to something within the US or outside the US – but either way, we slice it, August 19 looks to be the date we need to focus on.

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Commodities

Tuesday, August 13, 2019

This is the real move in gold and silver… it’s going to be multiyear / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: MoneyMetals

Welcome to this week’s Market Wrap Podcast, I’m Mike Gleason.

Coming up David Morgan of The Morgan Report joins me to break down the recent move in the metals, explains why he believes the move is a result of something no one is talking about – and he also gives us some key levels for silver, as it looks to gather strength from here. So don’t miss another must-hear conversation with David Morgan, coming up after this week’s market update.

What a wild week it’s been for investors.

The threat of global trade wars and currency wars sparked big swings across all major asset classes. Bond yields dove toward historic lows. Stocks plunged earlier in the week before rebounding sharply by Thursday. And precious metals rode a huge safe-haven wave higher.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, August 13, 2019

Global Central Banks Kick Can Down The Road Again / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

As we continue to explore the events of the past 10 to 20+ years and how the global central banks continue to attempt to navigate through these difficult times, we want to take a few minutes to try to understand and explain how the capital that has exploded into the global markets has been deployed and used to chase returns, risk and opportunity and may continue to be deployed more efficiently going forward. 

Read Part I of this series here: https://www.thetechnicaltraders.com/...

The recent news that the global central banks may begin a new round of stimulus and easing got us thinking – “what next?”.  Over the past 10 to 20+ years, global central banks have attempted to prompt an economic recovery that seems to slip past economic planners and we believe that is because core functions of the global economy are weaker than many expect.  We’re going to try to explore some of these factors and prepare traders for what may come in the future months.

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