Saturday, August 03, 2019

Most Common Mistakes Made in Escape Rooms / Personal_Finance / Holidays

By: Hillary_Walker

Escape room adventures offer refreshing group entertainment. Like any collective activities, they have their own list of typical errors linked to failed collaboration. Consult our list of five escape room sins before embarking on your next adventure. Newbies and fans alike will benefit from bearing these caveats in mind.

More and more escape rooms are opening all around the world. The Japanese invention is now entertaining people in Asia, USA, Australia, and Europe. Britons have also recognized its benefits. You may find an escape room in London UK at https://komnata.co.uk/london/, with many narratives and themes to pick from. Here are the main things you should try to avoid in any kind of escape room adventure.

Saturday, August 03, 2019

1. Introduction to Artificial Intelligence - AI Getting Started Course for Beginners / InvestorEducation / AI

By: Adnaan_Walayat

Want to get started in Artificial Intelligence? We'll here is the first video in my 10 part course for beginners that covers what you need to know to get started in AI. By the end of which you will be ready to progress onto the next level, creating your own neural networks, where I am already working on the next series of videos as a follow from this beginners course covering:

1. Introduction to Artificial Intelligence
2. Defining Artificial Intelligence: what is a neural network?
3. Components of a neural network
4. Gradient descent: how machines learn
5. The Law of Accelerating Returns
6. AI in image recognition
7. Medical uses of AI
8. The Singularity: rise of the super intelligence
9. Public perception of AI
10. AI in society

Friday, August 02, 2019

Trump Trade Tariffs US War with China Mega-trend Impact on Stock Markets / Stock-Markets / China US Conflict

By: Nadeem_Walayat

For some reason there are still mainstream media journalists out there going on about how China is winning the trade war against the US. Perhaps they just want to pump out any propaganda that hurts trumps re-election prospects? Or more likely are clueless automatons whose primary purpose is to regurgitate the editorial line of media out fits they represent. Anyway they are still just as wrong as they have been for the duration of the Trump presidency.

Friday, August 02, 2019

Small Cap Stocks Setup A Very Rare & Interesting Price Pattern / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Our researchers have identified a very rare type of price pattern that is typically associated with explosive trend changes and trends.  We call this type of pattern a “Sandwich” pattern because of how price reacts within a range.  The IWM, Russell 2000 ETF, is illustrating a nearly perfect example of this pattern right now.

Daily IWM chart (Russell 2000 Small Cap Index)

This close up view of the Daily IWM chart highlights the Sandwich pattern over the most recent 5 trading days and how price enters this volatile period, rotates around within a range, then settles near the upper or lower end of the range before a price breakout occurs.  Notice the earlier Sandwich pattern setup and how price settled near the bottom of the range before a downside price leg pushed the price much lower.

Friday, August 02, 2019

Facebook Libra Is Nothing More than a Nice Idea / Currencies / BlockChain

By: John_Mauldin

What kind of money will we use in the future?

The answer might seem obvious: dollars, euros, yen, and other government-issued fiat currencies.

Most of us have never known anything else. Yet these currencies aren’t natural phenomena.

People created them. People can also abandon them for something else, just as they abandoned older currencies.

There are good reasons to think we could once again see some fiat currencies disappear. If so, what “something else” will be money in the future?

Friday, August 02, 2019

Post FED US Bond Market Yield Spread Falls Further: Risk Aversion is at the Door / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: QUANTO

All Powell needed to do was cut rates and to soften the blow on the short end of the curve, he needed to speak of the strong economy and that would have controlled the 1 month and 3 month and 2 year yields. Instead he ended up confusing about recovery and talking of nonsensicall comical terms like insurance cut etc. These are jargons that one should never use.

The reaction from the bond market was immediate as the 1 month and 3 month yield jumped sharply. Money was flowing out to the long end which is exactly what Powell didnt want to happen when he said "inflation gets baked in to bond yields". Even as he was saying, that is what was happening. We take a look at some of the charts which define and go beyond normal technical and trend lines for forex. We have always suggested: NEVER TRADE FOREX ON TECHNICAL INDICATORS. THEY ARE LAGGING. TO LOOK BACK AND TRADE FORWARD IS FOOLISHNESS.

Friday, August 02, 2019

The Stock Market Fell and Volatility Spiked. What’s Next / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Troy_Bombardia

The S&P fell Thursday on trade war-related news and volatility spiked. Today’s headlines:

1. More economic weakness in manufacturing.
2. Long streak of bad economic surprises
3. Stock market’s volatility spiked
4. AAII sentiment
5. Short term bounce ahead for stocks?

Friday, August 02, 2019

No Sign Yet of Cyclical Inflation and the Gold Miners Don’t Mind a Bit / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Gary_Tanashian

Contrary to majority opinion, gold and especially the gold mining stocks that leverage its macro status are not about inflation, especially cyclical inflation that runs with a positive economy.

Making an appropriate return after a few months on hiatus, ladies and gentlemen… the Macrocosm.

Friday, August 02, 2019

After Fed Disappoints, Will Trump Initiate Currency Intervention? / Currencies / US Dollar

By: MoneyMetals

Following months of cajoling by the White House, the Federal Reserve finally cut its benchmark interest rate. However, the reaction in equity and currency markets was not the one President Donald Trump wanted – or many traders anticipated.

The Trump administration wants the Fed to help drive the fiat U.S. dollar lower versus foreign currencies, especially those of major exporting countries.

Instead, the U.S. Dollar Index rallied throughout July ahead of the expected rate cut and continued rallying after Fed chairman Jerome Powell made it official on Wednesday.

Friday, August 02, 2019

Precious Metals React To Fed Shockwaves – Ready For Next Move / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

On July 31, 2019, the US Federal Reserve decreased the Federal Funds Rate (FFR) by 25 basis points.  We believe the US Fed was pushed to take this action for three reasons that are directly related to the fear and greed that is abundant in the global markets.

Reason #1 Fed Had To Cut Rates

First, the US Fed is very concerned that the US housing market has stagnated and weakened over the past 16+ months.  The Fed has pushed the FFR towards our modeling system’s upper boundary (2.0 to 2.25) many months ago and this has pushed the housing market over a supply/demand precipice that may already be too far gone for a substantial recovery.  The US Fed, attempting to prevent another housing market collapse, must attempt to ease lending in an attempt to spark new real estate activity.

Thursday, August 01, 2019

Silver Price Tragets for 2019 - Forecast Update (1/2) / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Silver, the precious metals coiled swing has just given us a taste of what to expect as the price shot higher during July, last trading at $16,56, up 12% since my analysis of 10th June ($14.74). Silver had been lagging the gold price all year, even entering into a downtrend early July that resolved in a $2, 15% surge higher as the following Silver / Gold graph illustrates.

Thursday, August 01, 2019

US Yield Curve Inverted Months Earlier than Most Think / Interest-Rates / Inverted Yield Curve

By: John_Mauldin

The inverted yield curve is one of the more reliable recession indicators.

I discussed it at length last December. At that point, we had not yet seen a full inversion. Now we have, and it appears the curve was “inverted” back then, and we just didn’t know it.

The Powell Fed spent 2018 gradually raising rates and reducing the balance sheet assets it had accumulated in the QE years.

This amounted to an additional tightening. In fact, the balance sheet reduction may have had more impactthan lower rates.

Now if you assume, as Morgan Stanley does, every $200B balance sheet reduction is equivalent to another 0.25% rate increase, which I think is reasonable, then the curve effectively inverted months earlier than most now think.

Thursday, August 01, 2019

Climate Change and the Emergent Global Ideology / Politics / Climate Change

By: Mark_Blair

whether one is or is not convinced of anthropogenic global warming just isn’t the point. The point is that it’s the emergent global ideology, the perfect opportunity for discredited communists and bureaucrats to posture as saviors. (And we’ll discuss below The Other (Actual) Environmental Emergency: species loss, groundwater depletion, plastics, peak oil.)

But there’s a huge fly in the ointment: the west’s economic dependence on China, the brutal capit-ommunist dictatorship that keeps us in tube socks. China is – seems to be – in the final phase of biggie big big currency debasement.

Thursday, August 01, 2019

Stock Market Bearish Signs from the Fed, Economy, and Volume / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Troy_Bombardia

Stocks fell Wednesday as the Fed cut interest rates. Today’s headlines:

1. Rate cut and stocks
2. The economic expansion cycle
3. Manufacturing weakness
4. Stock market’s volume
5. U.S. Dollar breakout

Thursday, August 01, 2019

Next Recession Robust Case For The Largest Stock Market Losses In History / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Dan_Amerman

Stock market indexes are currently at record or near record highs, even as the chances for recession within the next 1-2 years seem to be rising. So how great would the losses be from these record heights, if the business cycle continues and we get another round of recession and bear market?

Thursday, August 01, 2019

US Fed Rattles Global Stock Markets / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Today is the day for the US Fed to announce their rate decision and we believe the 25 basis point rate cut is the only option they have at the moment that will attempt to settle foreign market fears and allow for a suitable “unwinding” of the credit/debt “setup” we highlighted in Part I of this research post.

We believe out August 19 expectation of a global market PEAK and the beginning of a price reversion move is related to multiple aspects of the timing of this Fed move and the current global economic outlook.  The unwinding of this debt/credit bubble will likely take many more years to unravel.  Yet, right now the US Fed is trapped in a scenario they never expected to find themselves in.  Either continue to run policy that supports the US economy (where rates would likely stay between 1.75 to 2.75) over the next 5+ years or yield to the global market and attempt to address a proper exit capability for this debt/credit “setup”.

Thursday, August 01, 2019

Precious Metal Stocks Are Not An Investment They Are A Speculation / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Bob_Kirtley

Preamble

Let's start by defining investment and speculation, and for this purpose, I have used Investopedia:

An investment is an asset or item acquired with the goal of generating income or appreciation.

Speculation refers to the act of conducting a financial transaction that has substantial risk of losing value but also holds the expectation of a significant gain or other major value.

Wednesday, July 31, 2019

Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast and AI Investing Update (2/2) / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This is part 2 of my July stock market trend forecast update. Much as expected the correction ended and resolved in a rally towards the trend forecast. With the Dow currently deviating from the trend forecast by about +1.5%.

Wednesday, July 31, 2019

Gold Awaits as Boris Johnson and the Fed Take the Spotlight / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Last week, Boris Johnson became the PM of the UK. The odds of hard Brexit increased, sending pound lower. Now, markets await tomorrow’s FOMC meeting. Gold closely monitors these events and thinks about which way to go next.

Boris the Brexiteer

Last week, Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson – for the people of the Great Britain known as Boris Johnson with a funny mop of blonde hair – became the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, after Theresa May resigned. And who knows – he might very well be the last prime minister of the Great Britain, as the union comes under increasing internal pressure due to Nicola Sturgeon’s push for a second referendum on Scottish independence. Remember, not all constituent parts of the United Kingdom voted for Brexit – the lion’s share of that vote came from England.

Wednesday, July 31, 2019

Stock Market Expensive: Traumatic Correction Approaching / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: QUANTO

As S&P climbs to new highs and closes another week into 3000s levels, we believe that the ground underneath is starting to slip. The economy per say may not be the problem. However the same cannot be said about valuation. The S&P500 is valued over 100% to its traditional mean and median levels on price to earning ratio. The one month treasury yield is now above US 2 year and 10 year yield thus effectively inverting. Money is often borrowed in the short term markets. A rise in short term rate is a warning signal of the coming mayhem. Rising yield will force models to reset after certain threshold are hit and this automatically converts into equity market cash outs. This sets of a chain reaction as sell momentum can spread across.

THe current S&P earning yield is 4.5% down from 6% thus contracting the returns investors make. This becomes even worrying when the short term yield is closing in on the earning yield at its fastest pace in over 10 years. We believe traumatic correction is on its way.