Monday, July 29, 2019
Trump Debt Deficits Then and Now : What a Difference 3 Years Make! / Politics / US Debt
By: MoneyMetals
As investors look ahead to a likely rate cut next week by the Federal Reserve, gold and silver markets have been consolidating their recent gains.
A big move in metals markets could come after the Fed’s policy meeting next Wednesday. Of course, the magnitude and direction of the move will depend on what Chairman Jerome Powell and company do and say.
Central bankers are under immense political pressure to lower interest rates and resume purchases of government bonds. A recent downturn in manufacturing and home sales data may well give them cover to roll out new stimulus even as the stock market sits near a record high.
Sunday, July 28, 2019
Gold Price Breakout - Trend Forecast 2019 July Update / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Houston we have lift off! So the gold price took off like a rocket in commemoration of the 50th anniversary of the Apollo 11 Launch and Lunar landings. One small step for precious metals one giant leap for gold bugs as the gold price barely paused at a series of resistance levels, $1300, $1350, $1370, $1400, none managed to hold gold in check for more than a couple of days as the price gravitated towards a rendezvous with $1450, which the gold price hit a week ago before retreating to currently stand at $1419.
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Sunday, July 28, 2019
Silver Outperforming Gold Price / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Zeal_LLC
Silver has blasted higher in the last couple weeks, far outperforming gold. This is certainly noteworthy, as silver has stunk up the precious-metals joint for years. This deeply-out-of-favor metal may be embarking on a sea-change sentiment shift, finally returning to amplifying gold’s upside. Silver is not only radically undervalued relative to gold, but investors are aggressively buying. Silver’s upside potential is massive.
Silver’s performance in recent years has been brutally bad, repelling all but the most fanatical contrarians. Historically silver prices have been mostly driven by gold, with the white metal amplifying moves in the yellow metal. Silver has generally leveraged gold by at least 2x in the past. And rarely silver skyrockets as higher prices and bullish sentiment feed on themselves in powerful virtuous circles fueling huge gains.
Silver’s legendary upside is largely the result of it being such a tiny market. Silver’s leading fundamental authority is the Silver Institute. In its latest World Silver Survey covering 2018, it reported that total world demand ran 1033.5m ounces last year. That was worth a mere $16.2b at 2018’s average silver prices, a rounding error in markets terms. That was just 1/11th the size of last year’s world gold demand worth $179.4b!
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Sunday, July 28, 2019
Brexit Politics and Algorithms / Politics / BrExit
By: Raul_I_Meijer
It’s a development that has long been evident in continental Europe, and that has now arrived on the shores of the US and UK. It is the somewhat slow but very certain dissolution of long-existing political parties, organizations and groups. That’s what I was seeing during the Robert Mueller clown horror show on Wednesday.
Mueller was not just the Democratic Party’s last hope, he was their identity. He was the anti-Trump. Well, he no longer is, he is not fit to play that role anymore. And there is nobody to take it over who is not going to be highly contested by at least some parts of the party. In other words: it’s falling apart.
And that’s not necessarily a bad thing, it’s a natural process, parties change as conditions do and if they don’t do it fast enough they disappear. Look at the candidates the Dems have. Can anyone imagine the party, post-Mueller, uniting behind Joe Biden or Bernie Sanders or Kamala Harris? And then for one of them to beat Donald Trump in 2020?
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Sunday, July 28, 2019
Cobalt to Share EV Battery Duties with Nickel / Commodities / Electric Cars
By: Richard_Mills
In the spring of 2018 Tesla came out with a bold prediction: bringing the amount of cobalt used in their Model 3 battery cells down to zero.
“Cells used in Model 3 are the highest energy density cells used in any electric vehicle. We have achieved this by significantly reducing cobalt content per battery pack while increasing nickel content and still maintaining superior thermal stability,” the company stated in its Q1 2018 update letter. “The cobalt content of our Nickel-Cobalt-Aluminum cathode chemistry is already lower than next-generation cathodes that will be made by other cell producers with a Nickel-Manganese-Cobalt ratio of 8:1:1,” Tesla boasted.
In the quest to reduce input costs, be socially responsible and to provide longer driving ranges, like Tesla, those other cell producers are wanting to reduce the amount of cobalt used in their EV batteries and increase the content of nickel. Typically EV batteries use NCA or NMC type lithium-ion - 60% of the world’s cobalt supply comes from the DRC where mining it is controversial.
Tesla is ahead of its competitors with respect to this switch. The company only uses 5% cobalt in their electric vehicle battery metals (the Model 3 uses 2.8% cobalt) versus 30% across the industry (eg. four times less than Volkswagen).
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Sunday, July 28, 2019
How to Find Reliable Lenders / Personal_Finance / Debt & Loans
By: Kavinesh_A
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Saturday, July 27, 2019
Human Life Extension Investing in IBB - iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF - IBB / Companies / BioTech
By: Nadeem_Walayat
We are currently galloping full speed along an exponential curve that unlike the neural nets of the 1990's, that promised a lot but delivered very little, this time it really looks like we are on the verge of AI success, not only that but it heralds changes in every aspect of our lives most of which we cannot even imagine today, hence the term the singularity is often used, the AI event horizon beyond which we cannot see.
My latest analysis in this series focuses on how to profit and capitalise on the unfolding machine intelligence driven mega-trend through investing in leveraged to AI Human Life Extension stocks.
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Saturday, July 27, 2019
3 Stocks You Should Own When the Fed Cuts Rates Next Week / Companies / Investing 2019
By: Robert_Ross
Looks like an interest rate cut could come as early as next week.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted at lower rates earlier this month.
Now investors are pricing in a 100% probability that the Fed will lower interest rates when it meets next week, according to global brokerage company CME Group.
This would be the first rate cut since December 2008, when the Fed cut rates to effectively zero and kept them there for seven years.
The Fed started raising rates in late 2015. Then it pumped the brakes after the stock market fell 20% at the end of 2018.
Saturday, July 27, 2019
Natural Gas Sets Up Two New Trades – Here They Are / Commodities / Natural Gas
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Before we discuss these incredible trade setups in the Energy sector, we have to discuss the continued shifting global economy and how that relates to these setups. Nearly three weeks ago, we posted a research article suggesting Crude Oil would call to levels near $50 over the next 30+ days, then stall for about 45 days before falling further and potentially attempting new lows near $40 ppb. It is important to understand certain aspects of the global economy, economic demand and how it relates to seasonal patterns for Energy.
We believe the move lower is Crude Oil is related to a supply glut that continues to plague the global markets while global economic trade, shipping, and activity continue to weaken. Too much oil supply with weakening global economic activity means Crude Oil will likely waffle lower until this dynamic changes.
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Saturday, July 27, 2019
Gold At 6 Year High In Euros At €1,288 as ECB Says Outlook Is “Worse and Worse” / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: GoldCore
Gold rose to a six and a half year high in euros at €1,288/oz yesterday prior to giving up the gains as it succumbed to profit taking in volatile trading during and after the ECB meeting.
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Saturday, July 27, 2019
Range Bound Financial Markets and Economy in Good Shape / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: QUANTO
Markets at all time highs and considerably calmer option market VIX index suggest that we could be in a slow grind higher for risk markets.
ECB Drahghi hits at easing
Christopher Graham, economist at Standard Chartered, notes that the European Central Bank (ECB) kept rates on hold at its 25 July meeting, but President Mario Draghi sent a strong signal that further easing would be delivered in September as per expectations. Key Quotes “By adjusting its forward guidance to note that rates would remain at current “or lower levels” until at least mid-2020 (in line with our expectations), the ECB has reinforced our view that interest rate cuts will be delivered after the summer break.” “We continue to expect a 10bps deposit rate cut in September and a further 10bps cut in December, to -0.60% by year-end.” “The Governing Council (GC) is also considering a broader package of measures; Draghi noted that committees have been tasked to explore other options, including new net asset purchases (both in size and composition), tiered deposit rates, and ways to reinforce forward guidance on policy rates.” “In a sign that the ECB has become increasingly concerned about the euro-area inflation outlook and persistently low inflation expectations, it also noted its “commitment to symmetry in the inflation aim”, implying that an overshoot of 2.0% would now be tolerated.” “The bar to other policy measures remains higher than for rate cuts, in our view, and Draghi admitted that agreement on the GC was not unanimous. Nonetheless, the likelihood of QE being restarted by year-end has increased considering press release, particularly if euro-area economic activity remains weak or deteriorates further.” “At the same time, we reiterate that a convincing QE programme would need to be open-ended and would require controversial rule changes, most likely a change to issuer limits.
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Friday, July 26, 2019
Silver Investing Trend Analysis and Price Forecast 2019 / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Formulating a Trend Forecast
The long-term picture is of the Silver price being stuck in a trading range of between $21 and $14 pending a breakout higher with the current resistance at $15.25. Then resistance at $16,25, $18.50 and finally $21.
The silver price only really tends to come alive during a monetary crisis of sorts be it financial or inflation, stock market panic etc. So is there a crisis on the horizon? Well whilst Trump's china trade war is stressing the system a bit, it's not exactly reached the point yet where each side is threatening military action and trade embargo's so we are not quite there yet. Whilst many may argue that another financial crisis is brewing out there, perhaps in student and auto loans. But again we are not quite there yet hence Silver remaining in hibernation. Whilst the US economy may be slowing, it's not exactly teetering on the brink of recession yet.
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Friday, July 26, 2019
Precious Metals Continue to Look Higher / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Avi_Gilburt
Last weekend, the important point of note was that silver had basically run out of room. It had a series of 1’s and 2’s set up for it to “melt up,” but it had to do so rather soon. Well, this past week, I would say that silver finally followed through and it took it directly to the level at which I noted on the chart was our next major resistance level. In fact, we were almost able to top tick the high of the week right at our resistance point, at which time I sent out an alert when I suspected that a pullback was imminent. Within minutes after that alert, silver began its pullback within wave iv.
The reason this is a major resistance level is that it is the 1.00 extension off the low we struck in 2018. Oftentimes, this could present us with an a-b-c corrective structure, wherein a=c. And, for this reason, I have been very cautious about silver holding over the 15.90 region. As long as it holds that support, and continues higher, it makes it less likely (but not impossible) that this rally is a corrective rally pointing us down to levels below those struck in 2018 for a final low.
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Friday, July 26, 2019
Trump Kills the Tea Party / Politics / US Politics
By: Peter_Schiff
After claiming to be the greatest at just about everything, Donald Trump has finally found an area where he can stake a credible claim. By negotiating a disastrous budget deal with Democrats, the President could become the greatest creator of government debt in the history of the country. While Trump is selling the two-year deal as a major victory because it increases military spending and removes the possibility of a government shutdown for two years, in reality, the agreement to suspend the debt ceiling and push annual deficits even further above the trillion dollar mark may only succeed in destroying the Republican Party as we know it.
The Tea Party wave of 2009 and 2010, a Republican movement born in reaction to the budget blowouts of the Obama Presidency, is now officially dead. It's ironic that as Trump hammered the final nail into the Tea Party's coffin, no one seemed happier than the corpse itself! There was hardly a word of discomfort from all the Republican Senators and Congressmen who had so loudly railed against debt when the other party occupied the White House. There is simply no legitimate way that Republicans will ever be able to argue again that they are the party of fiscal discipline. They may try, but only the most partisan and credulous voters will buy it.
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Friday, July 26, 2019
Bitcoin Wyckoff Accumulation Pattern / Currencies / Bitcoin
By: readtheticker
Many see a US recession in the first half of the 2020 decade. The first half of many previous decades suffered a recession, it is normal. But this time it may be different, well kinda different bad!
A reminder of US recessions in a first half of a decade: 1953, 1961, 1970-73, 1980-82, 1991, 2001-2002
Of course the 2007 to 2009 GFC was just short of a new decade. Yet the reader can see the trend of recessions in the first half of a decade is established, and not unusual.
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Friday, July 26, 2019
Many Stock Investors & Traders Expect a Correction Over the Next Few Months / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Troy_Bombardia
After a big 7 month rally, many investors and traders are expecting a pullback/correction sometime in the next few months. This begs the question: if everyone thinks this way, will they all be right? Today’s headlines:
- A big 7 month rally.
- “The stock market today is just like 1998.”
- Volatility continues to fall.
- Semiconductors v-shaped recovery
- Gold:silver ratio continues to fall
- U.S. Dollar’s extremely low volatility
These headlines are from CNBC:
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Friday, July 26, 2019
Can Silver Lead Precious Metals Higher Still? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
It’s not true that yesterday’s session in precious metals was uneventful. While gold and mining stocks didn’t do much, silver moved a bit above its previous high, closing at a fresh 2019 high. Sounds pretty remarkable, doesn’t it? In today’s analysis, we’ll put silver’s breakout into proper perspective and examine if the white metal has much more room to run.
Let’s dive in to the silver chart. The situation there seems to have changed - but is it really the case?
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Friday, July 26, 2019
The Stock Chart That Has the Fed in a Panic / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: Graham_Summers
Just what exactly is terrifying the Fed?
Over the last week, multiple Fed officials have surfaced to suggest the Fed needs to start cutting interest rates right now.
Indeed, on Thursday, John Williams, who runs the NY Fed (the branch in charge of market operations) suggested the Fed needs to cut rates to ZERO again.
Not 2%, or 1%, ZERO.
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Friday, July 26, 2019
Gold Is Your Life Insurance / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Jared_Dillian
I have always secretly wanted to work at a precious metals bullion dealer. I love gold. And silver and platinum. I love them philosophically, and I also just like shiny rocks.But if you think about it, trading metals is a really weird business.
Say you are bullish on silver and want to speculate on it, thinking it will appreciate in price. You can buy the ETF, yes, or you can buy silver miners, but the most straightforward way to invest in silver is just to buy coins or bars.
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Friday, July 26, 2019
Next Recession: The Case For A 36% Stock Market Plunge / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Dan_Amerman
If there is a recession in the next one to two years, there is also likely to be another bear market for stocks. Based on their experience over their lifetimes, many investors are expecting a "normal" bear market in that event, perhaps in the 20% to 25% range in terms of losses.
However, we are not in normal times, and we have seen a fundamental change in stock valuations over the last more than twenty years. We have also seen a major change in the losses experienced in bear markets, relative to prior decades.
This analysis takes a detailed visual look at the history of the S&P 500 stock index since 1962, and shows how the fundamentals have changed since the mid 1990s. Using simple averages, it then shows why the base case for a new bear market could be a two year inflation-adjusted loss of 36%, which would exceed anything experienced in the 1960s, 1980s or 1990s.
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