Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Sunday, January 05, 2020

Gold 2020 - Let’s Keep It Simple / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Avi_Gilburt

When I peruse the comments on our Elliottwavetrader site alone, I am seeing a myriad of “beliefs” as to what the metals are doing and will be doing. Most of such beliefs seem to be driven by feelings, and quite a number of them have been fighting this metals rally. Yet, some are even driven by various forms of analysis.

Of late, we are seeing so many become fearful of the metals market due to the COT report being so “bearish.” But, I have already dealt with this issue last week, yet I am going to repeat why that report is really of lesser consequence, especially when viewed relative to the structure of the market and support and resistance:

“If you look at the attached chart for the last 20 years, you will see that during the parabolic rally of 2010-2011 in gold, the commercial traders were heavily short gold. In fact, you can see that during that entire period of time, commercial shorts remained at 200,000 or greater. Yet, that was during a period of time where gold rallied $800. For those counting in percentage terms, that means gold rallied 70%+ during a time where commercial traders were heavily short of gold.

Saturday, January 04, 2020

Setting Gold Market Expectations for 2020 Right / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Hooray, the twenties are here! But what will the 2020 bring for the gold market? Shall we see the beginning of the Belle Époque for the yellow metal?

Gold at the End of 2019

The last year was a very good one for the gold bulls, as one can clearly see in the chart below. Despite the soaring equities, the price of the yellow metal rose from $1279 to around $1520, or more than 18 percent. Bravo!

Saturday, January 04, 2020

Crude Oil Prices Have Peaked / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Donald_W_Dony

Following the December 18, 2019 Market Minute titled "Are oil prices at a crest?" oil prices (WTI and Brent) are both finding increasing selling pressure as they moved to the top of their trading range.

Light crude oil found solid selling pressure around $62 and Brent at about $67 (Charts 1 & 2).

Friday, January 03, 2020

The Big Picture Backdrop for Precious Metals Outlook 2020 / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: MoneyMetals

The year ahead promises to be an eventful one. It will, of course, be dominated by political headlines leading up to the 2020 election. It could also be a big breakout year for precious metals.

In the second part of Money Metals' 2020 Outlook, we’ll drill down on the fundamental and technical setup for gold and silver…
However, in this first part, we’ll set the stage by digging into the macro forces at play in the economy, monetary policy, politics, and geopolitics.

Friday, January 03, 2020

Gold and Silver Prediction Targets 2020 / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

The Gold rally we predicted to happen in late 2018 took place, almost perfectly, based on our ADL predictive modeling systems results.  This rally took place in May through September 2019 and pushed  Gold up to levels near $1600.  The rest of the year, Gold consolidated near $1500 as a strong US Stock Market rally took hold in Q4 of 2019.  Our original prediction was that Gold would rally to levels near $1750 before the end of 2019 based on our Adaptive Dynamic Learning predictive modeling system (ADL).  This did not happen in 2019 as out ADL modeling systems suggested, but it appears Gold is setting up for another massive upside rally in 2020.

Friday, January 03, 2020

Crude Oil Price Reverses Lower Faster Than You Can Blink / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

Although oil bulls managed to push the futures higher and broke above the upper border of the rising green trend channel during yesterday’s session, Monday’s upswing turned out only temporary.

Friday, January 03, 2020

Gold in 2019: Lessons for the Year Ahead / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The King is dead, long live the King - 2019 is over, long live the 2020! As tumultuous as they have been, what have we learned about the gold market in the past twelve months? And what can we glean from this knowledge for the times ahead?

Key Lessons For Gold Investors from 2019

Today is the last day of 2019. It was a good year for the gold bulls, as one can clearly see in the chart below. The price of the yellow metal increased from $1279 to $1474 (as of December 18 – yes, we wrote this article before the festive break). It means that gold rose more than 15 percent in 2019. The gold bulls cannot complain!

Thursday, January 02, 2020

Gold Market Update: Precious Metal Up, Dollar Down / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Clive_Maund

Technical expert Clive Maund charts the reasons the precious metals have entered a bull market.

Gold is now a major bull market, as evidenced by its strong breakout from a giant 6-year long base pattern in August. The larger trend is up. We had thought that it might react back closer to the breakout point before turning higher again, but it didn't, and started higher again in recent days over the Christmas period. This is a sign of greater strength.

There is a broad array of fundamental reasons for a bull market of unprecedented magnitude in gold, but by far the most important of them is the ongoing and accelerating destruction of currencies by central banks. They are responding to crushing debt burdens with money creation on a gargantuan scale, and we can expect them to maintain a low or negative interest rate environment and to pump money like crazy, since faced with a choice between a liquidity lockup and systemic implosion, and rampant money creation leading to hyperinflation, they are bound to follow the latter course. It is more gradual and buys them more time. While all central banks around the world are playing the same game, they will find it very hard to keep up with the Federal Reserve of the U.S., which is ramping up money creation at a frenetic pace, the effect of which will be to collapse the dollar, which is already starting to break down—hence last week's rally in gold and silver.

Thursday, January 02, 2020

Gold Investors Wrongly Fear The “COT” / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Avi_Gilburt

As a student of market history, I always find it interesting, and even sometimes quite comical, how certain fallacies about markets are continually propagated by investors and analysts alike. Throughout my career in writing about metals, I have tried to bring many of these to light, and explain why so many of the fallacies should be ignored.

The latest in the string of fallacies relates to the Commitment of Traders report (COT). The common argument suggests that as long as the commercial traders are shorting gold heavily, then gold cannot rally. And, much has been made of late regarding the heavy commercial short positions pointing to a major drop in the gold market. Yet, history suggests otherwise.

Tuesday, December 31, 2019

Precious Metals & Miners Prepare For An Early 2020 Liftoff / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Over the moderately quiet 2019 Christmas holiday season, while the US and global stock markets continue to push higher, precious metals and miners have begun to move dramatically higher as fear settles into the markets.  Our researchers believe this upside move in metals and miners represents a measured increase in investor concern related to early 2020 and the global economy.

Our research team believes the current rally in the US stock market is an enthusiastic upside price move that does not have true fundamental support.  We’ve authored a number of articles and research posts that highlight our belief and we suggest this upside move in Gold and miners is a sign of underlying fear that is growing in the global markets.

Monday, December 30, 2019

Crude Oil Bulls Again Rejected At the Resistance / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

Crude oil futures extended gains, breaking above the upper border of the rising green trend channel during yesterday’s session. This upswing took the futures right to the red gap. Let’s see how this has reflected upon the daily indicators.

They look quite extended, suggesting that the space for additional gains may be limited and that a reversal is probably just around the corner.

Sunday, December 29, 2019

The Ethics of a Gold Standard / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Antonius_Aquinas

The efficacy of a metallic monetary system is beyond dispute at least among real economists which eliminates just about 95% of whom are now engaged in the “profession.” Money, which gold is, allows for specialization, the division of labor, and provides the means for mankind to escape from barter and, thus, a primitive existence. Like free trade, money naturally integrates mankind both among and between peoples.

A system of central banking with an unbacked paper currency is the antithesis of a gold standard. Manipulation of currencies by central banks, mostly through debasement, hinders trade, creates distortions, and ultimately leads to the dreaded business cycle. Murray Rothbard aptly describes the baneful results of state intervention in the monetary system:

Saturday, December 28, 2019

Trump Impeached in the House! Is It Time for Gold Now? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Last week, the House voted to impeach Donald Trump. This is the third time in the U.S. history such an event has happened to the sitting President. What does it imply for the gold market?

Trump’s Impeachment, Explained

On Wednesday, the House of Representatives impeached Donald Trump. He became only the third U.S. president in history to be impeached, following Andrew Johnson in 1868 and Bill Clinton in 1998.

According to the Constitution, the President “shall be removed from Office on Impeachment for, a Conviction of, Treason, Bribery, or other high Crimes and Misdemeanors”. Democrats created two articles of impeachments which refer to these other high crimes and misdemeanors. The first one accuses Trump of abusing his power by pressuring Ukraine to investigate Joe Biden, the former U.S. Vice President, in order to interfere in the 2020 presidential election.

Friday, December 27, 2019

Hi-yo Silver Away! / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Richard_Mills

Silver is expected to begin the next decade newly burnished, through a combination of higher industrial and investment demand, and tightened supply owing to mine production issues and output cuts. 

As December winds down and precious metals trade volumes dwindle, market analysts including us at Ahead of the Herd are crunching the numbers from 2019 and looking ahead to what the New Year might bring. 

Tuesday, December 24, 2019

Gold Upswing and Lessons from Gold Tops / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: P_Radomski_CFA

What a classic day Friday was! Gold moved a bit lower, miners moved significantly lower, and silver rallied. Truly classic and outstanding performance if one enjoys seeing topping patterns that are playing out according to their usual and likely characteristics. And Monday’s early session seems to be an encore.

Let’s start with the examination of the most recent price action in gold.

Monday, December 23, 2019

Crude Oil Bulls Keep Trying But the Technical Headwinds Are Stiff / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

Crude oil futures moved higher once again during yesterday’s session, overcoming the upper border of the rising green trend channel for the third time in a row. While the futures finished the day above this resistance, the bulls didn’t manage to hold gained ground in full.

Earlier today, the futures opened with the red gap. This bearish development means invalidation of yesterday’s breakout, which doesn’t bode well for the bulls.

The daily indicators are still very extended, also supporting the likelihood of upcoming reversal to the downside.

Should the futures extend losses from here, the initial downside target for the sellers will be the Friday’s green gap.

Monday, December 23, 2019

Gold vs Cash in a Financial Crisis / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Richard_Mills

Mattress stuffers or bullion holders? Who fares better in a crisis? North American investors are divided between those who believe the decade-long stock market bull is going to keep running into the 2020s, and investors who, wary of something terrible happening, are hoarding cash and gold. 

The hopeful and the fearful 

The beacon hopeful investors are following is best symbolized by analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, who describe current market conditions as “primed for Q1 2020 net asset melt-up”, based on continued monetary easing (central bank asset purchases, low interest rates) and a pending resolution to the trade war. A first-round trade agreement between the US and China was reached last Friday. 

While roughly two in three investors polled in October said they see the global economy getting worse in 2020, in November a little more than half think the economy will improve next year. 

Friday, December 20, 2019

Gold in Indian Rupees, the USD and the Many Non-USD Currencies / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: P_Radomski_CFA

We started yesterday’s analysis with the investigation of the Euro Index and gold price in this European currency. Today, we’ll take a moment to analyze the gold market from the Indian point of view. Gold has a special place in the Indian history and culture, India is the second biggest “consumer” of gold (right after China). USA’s gold consumption is third biggest in the world, but it’s less than one fourth of the Indian gold consumption. This means that to a considerable extent, the Indian gold buyers can influence gold’s fundamental situation.

Moreover, India is the second-largest English-speaking country (US comes in first with 268 million English speakers, while about 125 million people speak English in India). Since we’re writing in English and about gold, it’s only natural to discuss the Indian side of the gold market. And by that, we mean taking a closer look at gold’s price in the Indian rupee.

In the recent years the value of the Indian currency has declined compared to the value of the U.S. dollar, and so did gold. This mean that if you live in India, you have yet another reason to be holding gold and one less reason to worry that gold is going to decline profoundly. Yet, the situation is not that simple. After all, the huge value increases in the USD Index translated into declines in gold that were even bigger. This means that from the non-USD point of view, for instance from the Indian point of view, gold price still declined. Where does that lead us to?

Friday, December 20, 2019

Gold and Lagarde – Friends or Foes? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

A week ago, Lagarde chaired the monetary policy meeting of the Governing Council of the ECB for the first time. An insightful press conference followed in the footsteps. What will her presidency imply for the ECB’s policy and the gold market precisely?

Key Takeaways From First Lagarde Monetary Policy Meeting as ECB President

Last Thursday, the ECB held its December monetary policy meeting. The central bank maintained its stance steady, keeping the interest rates unchanged. However, the ECB has revised slightly down the outlook for real GDP growth for 2020, while the outlook for HICP inflation went slightly up.

Friday, December 20, 2019

Gold GLD Could Be On The Verge Of a Breakout / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Avi_Gilburt

With many stocks moving higher in breakout fashion already, silver and GLD have been lagging. But, that may come to an end shortly.

You see, silver seems to be setting up in a micro i-ii structure off the recent lows, whereas GLD is still below its last week high. However, even though GLD is below its last week high, the action we have seen lately has been quite corrective. So, this makes me lean towards an imminent break out more so than an imminent break down. But, we still need to see that follow through over last week’s high to confirm that.