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Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Commodities

Thursday, May 17, 2018

Silver’s Long Consolidation Looks Like a Launching Pad / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: MoneyMetals

The primary trend for gold and silver over the past year and a half has been the absence of any clear direction in prices. Metals markets have been stuck in consolidation mode. Yet for silver, in particular, that consolidation has formed a clear and potentially powerful pattern.
The silver market’s consolidation has formed a symmetrical triangle pattern. Prices are now nearing the apex of that triangle. The pattern cannot hold much longer – it must soon break in one direction or the other. And when it does, the move that follows should be sudden and sharp in one direction or the other.

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Commodities

Wednesday, May 16, 2018

Key Gold Correlation Is Back! / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

It’s back. The crucial correlation returned to the gold market. Does it herald important shifts in trends?

Real Interest Rates Are Back in Town
One of the biggest developments in the gold market during the first four months of 2018 was the breakdown of the traditional negative correlation between real interest rates and the price of bullion. As one can see in the chart below, the price of gold was uncorrelated or even moved in tandem with long-term, inflation-indexed U.S. Treasury yields in Q1 2018.

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Commodities

Wednesday, May 16, 2018

The Coming Copper Crunch / Commodities / Copper

By: Richard_Mills

Copper had one of it best years ever in 2017, rising 27% on the back of supply disruptions and steady demand from China, by far the largest copper consumer.

Commodities analysts are usually wrong about copper supply, always predicting a glut in the market for the ubiquitous metal used in everything from piping for plumbing to wiring in houses, to components of electric vehicles. What they fail to account for is the inevitable stoppages at the major copper mines due mostly to strikes and weather problems.

In 2017 however they were right. In January last year a collection of analysts - BMI, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup and TD - were all bullish on copper, saying that after a terrible 2015 and 2016, it would be the strongest performing metal of 2017 with predictions of up to $6,200 a tonne come mid-year. By the end of 2017 copper futures trading on the London Metal Exchange (LME) were at their highest in four years, $7,236.50 a tonne or $3.28 a pound. Copper wasn’t the best performing metal of 2017 (that would be cobalt) but it was third behind palladium. 

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Commodities

Tuesday, May 15, 2018

The Missing Link for Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

Last week we discussed the fundamentals of Gold, which do not appear bullish at the moment. Real rates (and yields) are rising and investment demand for Gold is flat. That in itself is a temporary but big missing link. However, we are referring to the missing link in the context of intermarket analysis. Gold is an asset that performs best when its outperforming its competitors. That’s true of any asset but especially Gold because it traditionally has been a counter-investment or an anti-investment. While Gold is firmly outperforming Bonds and showing strength against global currencies, it remains neutral to weak against global equities.  

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Commodities

Monday, May 14, 2018

Gloomy Scenarios for the Fed That Should Boost Precious Metals / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: MoneyMetals

Mike Gleason: It is my privilege now to welcome in Craig Hemke of the TF Metals Report. Craig runs one of the most highly respected and well-known websites in the entire industry and has been covering the precious metals for a decade now, and he puts out some of the best analysis on banking schemes, the flaws of Keynesian economics, and evidence of manipulation in the gold and silver markets.

Craig, it's been entirely too long. Thanks for joining us again, and how are you my friend?

Craig Hemke: Oh, Mike, it's always a pleasure. Thank you for having me back on. I'm a little more grayer, more wrinkles, all that kind of stuff in the last time since we've spoken, but that's what these markets will do to you, that's for sure.

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Commodities

Monday, May 14, 2018

Precious Metals and Miners NUGT – The Sleeping Giant Trade / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Throughout this year, many analysts have focused on the price of Gold, Platinum & Silver markets for insight to the fear levels that exist in the global markets.  Demand for Gold and Silver have been near historically high levels for the past 12+ months and the ratio of Gold to Silver has continued to show that Silver is extremely undervalued in relative value to Gold.  We’ve highlighted these facts in previous articles to our readers.

The recent news regarding economic and political concerns regarding a wide range of Emerging Markets and established economies, we believe, has continued to drive upward price pressures in the precious metals markets.  We feel the Metals & Miners are setting up a unique opportunity for patient and skilled traders/investors.  Possibly, the opportunity of a lifetime if our analysis is correct.

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Commodities

Sunday, May 13, 2018

The Truth About Gold That Neither Bugs Nor Bulls Want to Admit / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Graham_Summers

Let’s talk about Gold as an investment.

Gold is one of the most divisive asset classes on the planet. Stock-centric investors such as Warren Buffett think it’s a worthless “pet rock” that fails to appreciate in value. Gold bugs, on the other hand, revere the precious metal with an almost religious-like ferocity.

Both of these views are misguided particularly when you apply them to a framework that involves TIME.

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Commodities

Sunday, May 13, 2018

Silver Forecast 2018 and Beyond, Investing for the $35+ Price Spike! / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Silver the poor mans gold has so far failed to show any spark of life this year, opening the 2018 at $17.20, and then briefly rallying to a February peak of $17.60 before turning and remaining negative for the year, under performing Gold which has managed to remain positive for the year as both precious metals have effectively flat lined since their February highs, with Silver remaining stuck within a tight trading range of between $16.90 and $16.10 which is a far cry from the bullish expectations of many Silver bugs at the start of the year.

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Commodities

Saturday, May 12, 2018

Trump’s Iran-Decision Did-not and Won’t Affect Oil Prices / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Andrew_Butter

:Unless U.S.A. decides to go to War to Impress Stormy Daniels.

  • By some reports, President Trump’s Iran-decision caused oil prices to “jump 3%”. Actually that was intra-day; the change day-on-day was 1.7%. The probability the mini-jump was not caused by the announcement is 59%; since the null-hypothesis needs less than 5% to be called “statistically-significant”, that’s not.  The probability is 86% if you do four-day changes, i.e. even less probable.
  •  The day after Benjamin Netanyahu made his presentation on Iran, oil prices dropped 2.8%; which, intriguingly, is “statistically significant” (P>[t]=0.0438*); perhaps  the markets’ take; was that they figured the likelihood of an interruption in Iranian oil supplies, or a war, was less likely, after they heard the presentation?
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Commodities

Friday, May 11, 2018

Navigating The Bullish Crude Cycle / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Science_Investing

From A Technical Analysis Perspective
Crude remains short-term bullish as long as the nearest WTI contract trades above the blue dotted horizontal support region.

Oil ran up and made higher highs inside the pale blue trend channel. The progress got confirmed by geopolitical newsflow. Moreover, the most important commodity price gained despite a stronger US dollar. A breakout above the January 2018 high got further traction after being retested at the end of April 2018. Oil prices surpassed the solid blue trendline spanning back to June 2016 this trading week. We asses that as a fake breakout as part of a leading diagonal. Oil prices are likely to correct into the 66.50-67.00 region before resuming the uptrend.

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Commodities

Friday, May 11, 2018

The Precious Metals Conundrum / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Avi_Gilburt

First published on Sun May 6, 2018 for members of ElliottWaveTrader.net: A sideways correction lasting a year and a half certainly does a lot to sour investors on a market. And, even though we have not dropped below 20 in GDX this entire time and the GLD has been consolidating just under its breakout region for months, the bearishness and frustration in the complex is palpable. In fact, I have even seen people calling for sub $1000 gold again, and we have not even broken a single support level yet. For me, this is a head scratcher.

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Commodities

Friday, May 11, 2018

Gold GLD Update…All Aboard ? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Rambus_Chartology

This first chart is a daily line chart for GLD which shows it has completed 5 reversal points so far and is working on the all important 6th reversal point back up to the top rail. This is where the bulls need to step up to the plate.

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Commodities

Wednesday, May 09, 2018

A Bottom in GOLD and a Top in CRUDE! / Commodities / Commodities Trading

By: Enda_Glynn

UPCOMING RISK EVENTS:

USD: PPI m/m, Core PPI m/m.
EUR: N/A.
GBP: N/A.
JPY: N/A.

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Commodities

Wednesday, May 09, 2018

Supercycle May Be Setting Up for Higher Commodity Demand / Commodities / Commodities Trading

By: The_Gold_Report

Conditions may be in place for increased demand and increased prices for a number of commodities. In this interview with Streetwise Reports, Frank Holmes, CEO of U.S. Global Investors, discusses the commodity supercycle and the factors behind it, why some commodities may get more of a boost than others, and ways investors can profit.

The Gold Report: Frank, thank you for joining us today. Let's talk about the commodity supercycle. Would you explain what the supercycle is?

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Commodities

Tuesday, May 08, 2018

Gold’s Fundamentals are Not Bullish…Yet / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

Ask some gold bugs why Gold has not broken out yet and you will probably get the usual answers. Some will say it’s due to manipulation or price suppression. Others will mention the current rally in the US Dollar (while neglecting that the previous decline in the greenback was unable to take Gold to a new high). Few would say the fundamentals are not in place. No one can know for certain but Gold’s fundamentals have not improved over the past year and are not where they need to be to support a breakout.

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Commodities

Tuesday, May 08, 2018

From Trumped Equities to Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Dan_Steinbock

Despite misguided economic policies and rising geopolitical tensions, the long market expansion has prevailed. But times may be changing.

With the Trump fiscal policies and rearmament, America is taking more debt than in decades, even though its sovereign debt now exceeds $21.2 trillion, or 106 percent of the GDP. As fiscal stimulus kicks in (read: Trump’s tax cuts), the deficit will widen.
Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Friday, May 04, 2018

Gold Hit by USDX Squeeze / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Zeal_LLC

Gold was enjoying a solid spring rally until a couple weeks ago, nearing major upside breakouts.  But its nice advance has crumbled since, really weighing on sentiment.  Gold fell victim to a rare major short squeeze in US Dollar Index futures.  The surging USDX motivated gold-futures speculators to flee rather aggressively.  But this will likely prove a short-lived anomaly, after which gold’s assault on highs will recommence.

Gold’s seasonally-atypical weakness over the past couple weeks is very important for speculators and investors to understand.  It had nothing at all to do with fundamentals, but was completely driven by the hyper-leveraged gold-futures traders.  These guys have long been fixated on the US dollar’s fortunes, looking to its benchmark US Dollar Index for trading cues.  That can slave gold’s price to the dollar at times.

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Commodities

Friday, May 04, 2018

Macro Changes for Gold and Stocks / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Gary_Tanashian

Since early 2016 we have been carrying forward a theme illustrating that until the macro trends in place since 2011 change, the situation would be as is, stocks trending up and the precious metals in consolidation/correction. The current trends were kicked off symbolically, and functionally to a degree, by the Fed’s concoction of Operation Twist, a plan with the expressed goal of manipulating the macro (or in the Fed’s word, “sanitizing” inflation signals). Until this year it has been the gift that keeps on giving to unquestioningly bullish stock market participants.

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Commodities

Friday, May 04, 2018

US Dollar Cycle Rotation To Boost Oil & Other Commodities / Commodities / Commodities Trading

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Our recent analysis of the US Dollar has presented a very unique and interesting setup for traders – an opportunity for a general commodity rally with Oil leading the way.

Taking a look at this Daily chart of the UUP (US Dollar Index Bullish Fund) with our Advanced Dynamic Learning Cycles price modeling system applied to it, we can see that the cycle analysis is predicting a rotational top in the US Dollar over the next 2~5+ trading days before a new bearish price trend pushes this US Dollar fund back to below the $24 level.  We have highlighted the Resistance Zone in red and we believe this rotating top will play out fairly quickly as an excellent opportunity for traders.

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Commodities

Friday, May 04, 2018

Platinum Price Cycles Predict Big Upside Move / Commodities / Platinum

By: Chris_Vermeulen

I wanted to take a moment to alert everyone to a price cycle setup that may turn out to be one of the most dramatic price moves we've seen since 2008. The metals markets have recently made some news by breaking to new recent price highs. This price move prompted a number of major firms to announce new bullish directional forecasts for gold with predictions of $2500 to $3000 price levels in the near future. These future price predictions led me to consider what it would take for metals to rally more than 30% from current levels – and the answer became clear to me.

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