Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Saturday, July 08, 2017

Gold Awaits Fundamental Shift / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

Last week we wrote that Gold’s poor performance in real terms could reflect its worsening fundamentals. Real interest rates are rising because the rate of inflation has peaked and bond yields are rebounding. It is a double whammy for precious metals. This is not permanent but something that could last a few quarters. Gold needs inflation to accelerate or bond yields to drop significantly. One historical analog argues that with respect to the Federal Reserve, a change in policy could be part of the fundamental shift needed to drive Gold into a bull market.

Friday, July 07, 2017

Silver Prices Bounce Higher After Futures Manipulated 7% Lower In Minute / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: GoldCore

– Silver prices ‘flash crash’ before rebound
– Silver hammered 7% lower in less than minute in Asian trading
– Silver fell from $16 to $14.82, before recovering to $15.89
– Silver plunge blamed on another ‘trading error’
– Gold similar ‘flash crash’ last week and similar recovery
– Hallmarks of market manipulation as $450 million worth of silver futures sold in minute
– Trading ‘errors’ always push gold and silver lower. Why never higher?
– ‘Flash crashes’ increasingly frequent in precious metals, yet rarely happen in stocks and bonds
– Rapid recovery from frequent raids bodes well for precious metals
– Silver coins and bars accumulated on dips by ‘stackers’

Friday, July 07, 2017

Gold Seasonal - The Golden Age Has Just Begun / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Dimitri_Speck

In recent issues of Seasonal Insights I have discussed two asset classes that tend to suffer performance problems in most years until the autumn, namely stocks and bitcoin.

I thought you might for a change want to hear of an asset that will be in a seasonal uptrend over coming months.

Such assets do of course exist, and one that has particularly good prospects at the moment is gold.

Friday, July 07, 2017

GOLD Flashing Bullish Signals Again, USDJPY Contracting Triangle in Play / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Enda_Glynn

My Bias: LONG
Wave Structure: rally in wave [C]
Long term wave count: wave [C] is underway, upside to above 136.00
Important risk events: JPY: N/A. USD: Non-Farm Employment Change, Unemployment Rate, Fed Monetary Policy Report.

USDJPY has spent the week going sideways in a contracting range.
This price action is beginning to look like a contracting triangle,
Possibly within wave '4' pink.

Thursday, July 06, 2017

6 Things Precious Metals Naysayers Get Dead Wrong / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: MoneyMetals

Stefan Gleason : Answering the Most Common and Current Objections

Gold attracts its fair share of detractors. But the most common objections to gold as money, and as a safe-haven asset within an investment portfolio, are misplaced. Anti-gold myths are ubiquitous.

Mega billionaire Warren Buffett remarked derisively of gold that it “gets dug out of the ground in Africa, or someplace. Then we melt it down, dig another hole, bury it again, and pay people to stand around guarding it. It has no utility.”

Thursday, July 06, 2017

Don’t Hold Your Breath For Deeper OPEC Oil Cuts / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

The rally in oil prices over the past two weeks came to a halt on Wednesday on news that OPEC is actually exporting more oil than previously thought.

A month ago, oil prices appeared to be higher than they should have been, with weak demand, elevated inventories, and a recognition that the nine-month OPEC extension would be inadequate to balance the market. Oil sold off and dropped to the mid-$40s and below. Oil traders then bought on the dip, and bid prices back up over the past two weeks. Now, prices again look like they could be reaching an upper limit.

Wednesday, July 05, 2017

Few People Grasp What Geopolitical Power Shale Oil Gives To The US / Commodities / Shale Oil and Gas

By: John_Mauldin

I know no one else with George Friedman’s breadth and depth of insight into today’s world.

Right at the root of today’s major global issues, we find one little word: oil. So, I’ve asked George to bring us up to speed on the geopolitical implications of a remarkable phenomenon: the US shale oil industry.

There is good news here for the US, but big bad news for Saudi Arabia and Russia—and in fact any country with oil exports as its main source of income.

But without further ado, I’ll let George and his team enlighten you on this development themselves.

Wednesday, July 05, 2017

Enter The Natural Gas Cartel / Commodities / Natural Gas

By: Jim_Willie_CB

The King Dollar is mortally wounded. Many notice but the masses seem largely unaware. Since 1971, the Gold Standard has been removed from its anchor position. But since 1973, the Petro-Dollar has taken its place. It has called for crude oil sales led by the Saudis and OPEC to be transacted in USDollar terms, for oil surpluses to be stored in USTreasury Bonds, and for some kickbacks from the Saudis to the USMilitary complex for weapons purchases. Of course, the US is ready willing and able to create strife and to foment wars whereby the Arab oil monarchs will need more weapons. Since 2014, many events have pointed to the crippled condition of the important link between the USDollar and crude oil. The price has plunged by 50% of more, and not recovered. It is currently lurching in the nether bounds near the $45 level. Anything less than $65 to $70 per barrel is very dangerous for keeping the oil sovereigns afloat and for keeping the US energy sector solvent. Witness the Wall Street banks having tremendous problems with impaired bonds and toxic energy portfolios. They seem not resolvable. They cannot keep the oil price over $50, a sign of their impotence.

Tuesday, July 04, 2017

Gold Price Broke Below Major Support Trend Line / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Franco_Shao

XAUUSD’s downside movement from the June 6 high of 1295.94 extended to as low as 1218.45, breaking below the major support trend line from the January 27 low of 1180.51 to the May 9 low of 1214.17 at 1232 on its daily chart. Gold price is now facing another key support at 1214.17.

Tuesday, July 04, 2017

Gold GLD ETF Recognition Day / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Rambus_Chartology

Today is called a recognition day when it finally becomes apparent that the trading range is ending and you have a massive breakout move. We can still get a backtest to the breakout point which would represent the 2nd area to take a position. Today GLD gapped below the H&S backtest to the bottom rail of the black bearish rising wedge and that very important S&R line which last week I said came into play around the 117 area.

Monday, July 03, 2017

Gold Up 8% In First Half 2017; Builds On 8.5% Gain In 2016 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: GoldCore

– Gold up 8% in first half 2017; builds on 8.5% gain in 2016
– U.S. dollar down 6.5% – worst quarter in seven years
– Gold higher in all currencies except Draghi’s euro 
– Gold outperforms bonds; similar gains as stock indices
– S&P 500 and Dax outperform gold marginally

Monday, July 03, 2017

Precious Metals Sector On Major Buy Signal / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: The_Gold_Report

Technical analyst Jack Chan charts the latest moves in the gold and silver markets.

Our proprietary cycle indicator is down.

Monday, July 03, 2017

Gold: Are We All Dead Wrong? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: The_Gold_Report

The natural resource sector is the most volatile sector to invest in, says Lior Gantz, editor of Wealth Research Group, and he discusses factors to take into consideration when investing.

The fact remains that the natural resource sector is the most volatile sector we can invest in.

In your brokerage account, if you see reds and not greens, as you did between January 2016 and August, then make sure you read today's piece thoroughly.

Monday, July 03, 2017

Copper New Intermediate Cycle : Bullish / Commodities / Copper

By: SurfCity

Copper confirmed a new Intermediate Cycle this week with a breach and close above my Red Yearly Cycle Down trend line (see first two charts). Given that this last Yearly Cycle was extremely Right Translated, cycle methodology would indicate we should expect Copper to make new highs in the year ahead of us.

Sunday, July 02, 2017

Gold Price Trend Line Broken / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Gary_Savage

Gold has closed below its intermediate uptrend line. This is the first confirmation that a larger intermediate degree decline has begun.

Saturday, July 01, 2017

Gold And Silver – Why No Rally? Lies, Lies, And More Lies / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Michael_Noonan

One thing certain of all politicians, no matter where in the world, they all lie.  The US federal government, that captive political body beholding to Wall Street interests, also a subsidiary of the international bankers that controls the West and all fiat-issued currency, is one of the worst when it comes to lies and deceit, primarily because Europe can only play a poor second fiddle to federal US dictates.  South America can offer no resistance, nor can South Africa.

China is beginning to flex its overblown might, and Russia, while in opposition, remains under attack by the West, led by the Neocons [Nazi-types] from the US Deep State trouble makers.  The only thing the federal US government does is start wars, and if there is a war going on anywhere around the globe, the US is either directly or indirectly responsible.  Wars feed the [fading but still formidable] military might as a means of keeping the fiat Ponzi scheme, aka the “dollar,” alive as the [diminishing] world reserve fiat currency.

Saturday, July 01, 2017

Gold is Weak in Real Terms / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

Intermarket analysis is a rather new field in technical analysis but one of my favorites because it is critical in understanding Gold. Asset classes like stocks and bonds are enormous and aren’t as influenced by as many factors as Gold. Trends in stocks, interest rates, commodities and currencies impact Gold in one way or another. We have written many articles over the years analyzing Gold with respect to its outlook and standing in real terms. Gold, when in a true bull market outperforms against all currencies and the global equity market. Unfortunately that is not the case at present. In real terms, Gold is weak, getting weaker and it could be a reflection of the metal’s worsening fundamentals.

Friday, June 30, 2017

Has Gold Production Peaked? / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2017

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

We often hear about ‘peak gold’, i.e. the maximum level of the global production of the yellow metal. According to some analysts, the gold supply already peaked in 2016 or it is likely to peak very soon, offering hope for gold bulls. We do not agree with them. The notion of gold peak is flawed and should not be a basis for investing in gold.

And here is why. It’s extremely difficult – or even impossible – to determine the peak in gold production, as the level of mining depends on many factors, including future discovery of new deposits and technological breakthroughs. Look at the chart below.

Friday, June 30, 2017

How High Could Crude Oil Price Go? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

On Wednesday, the black gold gained 1.13% after encouraging the EIA weekly report. As a result, light crude climbed to the previously-broken lower border of the trend channel, but closed the day below it. Will we see further improvement in the coming days?

Although yesterday’s EIA weekly report showed that crude oil inventories rose by 118,000 barrels in the previous week (missing expectations of a draw), the report also showed that gasoline inventories, dropped by 894,000 barrels (beating analysts’ forecasts), while distillate stockpiles declined by 223,000 barrels and beat expectations of a rise of 453,000 barrels.

Thursday, June 29, 2017

Is A Big Move In Oil Prices Due? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

In options trading, a straddle is literally a sit-on-the-fence strategy. By purchasing a put and a call at the same strike (price of underlying commodity) for the same time period, an investor isn’t making a conventional directional bet; rather the investor is looking for a big move either up or down. The rub is that the big move must be greater than the sum of the two option premia or the bet goes south. But that is in the nature of the trade.