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Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Commodities

Sunday, February 04, 2007

The USA and Saudi Arabia Combat the Axis of Oil - Iran, Russia and Venezuela / Commodities / Analysis & Strategy

By: Gary_Dorsch

Crude oil is the key weapon in the battle between Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the UAE, aligned with the United States, against the “Oil Axis” of Iran, Russia, and Venezuela. The Persian Gulf Oil kingdoms fear the emergence of a Tehran-led axis linking Iran, Iraqi Shiites, Syria, Lebanon's Hezbollah, Palestinian Hamas in Gaza, and Islamic militants linked to al Qaeda trying to topple the Saudi royal family.

Earlier this month, Riyadh fired the first shot in the war against Iran, by knocking the price of crude oil to as low as $50 per barrel. The goal is to squeeze Iran's budget and wreck havoc on its economy, as much as possible, before the Ayatollahs can get their hands on the nuclear bomb. According to a Jan 24th report in the UK Telegraph, that indicated North Korea is helping Iran to prepare an underground nuclear test similar to the one Pyongyang carried out last year.

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Commodities

Friday, February 02, 2007

Uranium Bull Market Set to Continue During February / Commodities / Strategic News

By: James_Finch

Buyers have begun to show willingness in paying higher prices for uranium oxide (U3O8). Sellers remain confident they can get even higher prices. The recent six-week stalemate ended when Trade Tech raised the uranium spot price indicator to $75/pound in the consulting firm's month-end report.

Uranium Bull Market set to Continue During February

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Commodities

Wednesday, January 31, 2007

Winning the Global War for Natural Resources / Commodities / Analysis & Strategy

By: Money_and_Markets

Although Hezbollah, al-Qaeda, and the war in Iraq often grab the headlines, I think the global battle for natural resources will probably define the 21st Century when it's all said and done. This war isn't fought with bullets … yet. Instead, it's fought with contracts and trade agreements as countries like China, India, Russia — and, yes, the U.S. — struggle for economic hegemony.

Here are just a few of the latest moves ...

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Commodities

Tuesday, January 30, 2007

Weekly Gold and Silver Technical Analysis Report - Caution ! / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Merv_Burak

Only two up days with three down days but still ending on the plus side. Gold is up against a strong resistance barrier. Will it break through? Ah! The mysteries of life.

GOLD - LONG TERM

GOLD - LONG TERM P&F Chart

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Commodities

Tuesday, January 30, 2007

ELLIOTT WAVE Analysis of Gold and HUI - Triangle Pattern / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Dan_Stinson

Gold is in a triangle pattern and it currently appears to have started wave e down. We should see minor downside for the wave e count, before a reversal and subsequent breakout to the upside. The downside could complete as 3 waves or as 5 waves with further sideways action in wave e towards the apex of the triangle. A break below the lower trendline and the wave c low in the triangle would be short term bearish indicating further downside before a substantial move higher. A break above the wave b high before a pullback could indicate 2 possible scenarios.

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Commodities

Monday, January 29, 2007

Investment Shock and Awe - Opportunities from growing risk of world conflict / Commodities / Investing

By: Money_and_Markets

5 new shockwaves, 5 big dangers and 6 opportunities

A new world war is unfolding with untold consequences for investors. But Wall Street remains largely oblivious. This war is not confined strictly to Afghanistan and Iraq. It is already spreading to Pakistan, Iran, Gaza, Lebanon and beyond. Nor are its protagonists limited to the few countries regularly mentioned in news reports. To the contrary, even considering only those countries that are directly involved with troops or weapons, I count over forty — the U.S., Britain, Germany, and nearly all the members of NATO ... plus Iran, Syria, Pakistan and many other Muslim nations from Morocco to Malaysia.

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Commodities

Monday, January 29, 2007

The Real International Price of Silver / Commodities / Analysis & Strategy

By: Robert_Watson

What is the real price of an ounce of silver and just how widespread should a silver bull market be? We have watched over the last few years as the price of silver in US dollars has marched upwards from the lows of $4 to the recent highs of $15. However, the good luck of silver has been mainly laid at the door of the bad luck of US dollar. The US dollar depreciates and hence the price of silver in US dollars appreciates. Seems a simple enough equation, but surely a real bull market will stand on its own merits and not on the misfortunes of another? With that in mind, is silver worth investing in by lovers of silver from other countries across the globe?

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Commodities

Sunday, January 28, 2007

The Global Warming Resources Boom - Invest in Uranium, Gold, Silver and Diamonds / Commodities / Investing

By: Money_and_Markets

Seeping Giants and Untold Riches! - Look out your window and see if pigs are flying.

Why? Because the impossible is happening: Major corporations are joining forces with environmental groups in an unprecedented, unholy alliance to push for quicker action on global warming. A decade ago, if you'd placed bets on this kind of partnership emerging, you probably could have gotten 100-to-1 pay-offs in your favor.

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Commodities

Sunday, January 28, 2007

Gold Market sectorwide Buy Alert / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Clive_Maund

Gold is looking technically stronger than it has done for the past 16 months. It would have escaped the notice of many that it broke out last week from a little-known technical pattern known as 3-arc Fan Correction. This pattern was not detected earlier because it is rather rare, and instead attempts were made to define the action in gold since last May as some kind of triangle, which could, of course, be bearish. However, a 3-arc Fan was clearly identified in the Streettracks chart last week on www.clivemaund.com, prompting a re-examination of the gold chart, whereupon it became evident that a similar pattern exists in gold. This is very important, because it largely sweeps away lingering doubts about where gold is headed. This is because these patterns are very bullish, and seldom break down.

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Commodities

Saturday, January 27, 2007

Precious Metals Stocks update Gold, Silver : Follow the Money / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Dominick

As we mentioned last week, there are numerous factors weighing on the spot price of precious metals and this fact can make it challenging from week to week to say exactly which forces will predominate and determine the next direction the market will take. The forces include sentiment, interest rates, speculative demand, but, of course, the bottom line is money. If you can follow the money, understanding where it's moving and why, then you'll know what's driving the metals markets. The operative words over the last two weeks have been:

"In the short term, if next week's data continue to nourish the sentiment that the economy has rounded the bottom, a veritable soft landing, then metals have a realistic shot at overtaking resistance. The hotter the economy appears to become, the more willingness investors should have to get back into mining stocks and the greater the inflation concerns will become."

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Commodities

Thursday, January 25, 2007

The Cycle Turn and Trend Indicator Applied to Oils and Copper / Commodities / Cycles Analysis

By: Tim_Wood

If I could only have one indicator it would be the Cycle Turn Indicator. This indicator is primarily used on the intermediate-term weekly charts to tell me the current market direction and to identify intermediate-term turn points. Staying on the right side of the market really is as simple as following this indicator, which we do. The Dow theory, cyclical and statistical work is used to "look over the horizon" and to tell us what we should expect further down the road in the future. My basic philosophy is to use the Dow theory, my cyclical and statistical analysis to develop the longer-term market expectation, all the while using the very important intermediate-term Cycle Turn Indicator in the interim.

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Commodities

Tuesday, January 23, 2007

Silver Market Update - Breakout to follow Gold higher / Commodities / Gold & Silver

By: Clive_Maund

Subtle but important changes in recent days have substantially increased the chances of upside breakouts by gold and silver. The situation is now very finely balanced with an army of traders either sat on the fence, or, depending on which way it breaks, on the wrong side of the trade. When it does break out - and it is beginning to look like it will be to the upside, there will be a stampede and an upside breakout from here could thus easily involve a $1 - $1.50 up day for silver.

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Commodities

Tuesday, January 23, 2007

Gold Market Update - Upside breakout likely - Options straddle opportunity / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Clive_Maund

Subtle but important changes in recent days have substantially increased the chances of upside breakouts by gold and silver. The situation is now very finely balanced with an army of traders either sat on the fence, or, depending on which way it breaks, on the wrong side of the trade. When it does break out - and it is beginning to look like it will be to the upside, there will be a stampede and an upside breakout from here could thus easily involve a $20 - $30 up day for gold.

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Commodities

Monday, January 22, 2007

Gold Analysis - Rumors of Metals' Demise are Greatly Exaggerated! / Commodities / Analysis & Strategy

By: Dominick

Even after last week's rally, there is still talk about the run in commodities being finished. If you watched CNBC, you heard over and over that money had rotated out of commodities and into tech and, later, into retail. But, as we proudly boasted last week, even in the midst of this so-called "collapse", gold and silver never broke their psychological $600 and $12 support levels. And the action since last weekend's update fit the proscription very closely. We said:

The daily charts below reveal that GLD is now very close to resistance at its 50-day moving average. A convincing move to $63 in the ETF would echo the signal that the spot market has cleared a path to $640 gold, but it will take more than technical impetus alone.

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Commodities

Sunday, January 21, 2007

Gold Bull Market set to resume / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Gold has been in a corrective pattern since the May 2006 peak, attempting to build a base in anticipation of the resumption of the bull market. Now finally, Gold appears ready to resume the up trend with clear technical indicators signaling a breakout is imminent.

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Commodities

Saturday, January 20, 2007

Leveraging Silver Investments with Silver Stocks / Commodities / Analysis & Strategy

By: Robert_Watson

I talked a couple of weeks back about how silver could be used to leverage the price of gold but what about silver mining stocks leveraging the price of silver? In that previous article a four-year rolling leverage of silver over gold was calculated to show how silver either out-performed or under-performed gold as bull markets waxed and waned. Applying the same principles, we have the following 4-year leverages for the mining companies that make up The Silver Analyst Stock Composite Index. The stocks are listed according to performance. The record maximum leverage is given to the right as well as the date on which it occurred.

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Commodities

Saturday, January 20, 2007

. / Commodities / Gold & Silver

By: Joe_Nicholson

Even after last week's rally, there is still talk about the run in commodities being finished. If you watched CNBC, you heard over and over that money had rotated out of commodities and into tech and, later, into retail. But, as we proudly boasted last week, even in the midst of this so-called "collapse", gold and silver never broke their psychological $600 and $12 support levels. And the action since last weekend's update fit the proscription very closely.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Friday, January 19, 2007

Commodity Markets Strategic Review - Gold, Silver, Crude Oil and Copper / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Clive_Maund

As an investor, what matters to you more than anything, what is of paramount importance, is determining whether what you have invested in, or are thinking of investing in, is going to go up, down or sideways. If you are long you want the market to go up, if you are short you want it to go down, and if you have written both Call and Put options, you want it to move sideways. All consideration of fundamentals is subordinate to this Prime Objective.

Gold, Silver and Precious Metals stocks have been trading sideways for about 9 months now, following their strong advance to the April - May peak of last year, with many smaller stocks having slithered down a "slope of hope" to plumb low levels in the recent past. Understandably, many investors in the sector are growing increasingly fed up and frustrated with this situation, especially as every time the sector looks set to break higher it has suffered a smackdown. The purpose of this essay is to assess the current situation and to discuss effective tactics for dealing with it.

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Commodities

Friday, January 19, 2007

Silver rally expected to peak in the near term for a possible shorting opportunity / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Clive_Maund

This Silver Market update will be truncated relative to the Gold Market update, as many of the arguments set out in that update apply equally well to silver. Silver suffered a similar New Year smack down to gold, broke down from a similar intermediate Head-and-Shoulders top area, and broke back above the "neckline" of the pattern on Friday, which is as a result also close to aborting.

The strength of the move on Friday indicates that we should see follow through next week, but that the advance will stall out either at the resistance in the $13.25 area, or possibly at the resistance zone in the $13.75 - $15.20 area. At this point, depending on conditions prevailing at the time, we will consider shorting it with a fairly close overhead stop.

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Commodities

Thursday, January 18, 2007

Gold Rally could run out of steam in the near term / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Clive_Maund

We have seen the severe smackdown anticipated in the last Gold Market update, although it did first manage to trip our overhead stops by a whisker before plummeting. This resulted in a breakdown from the intermediate Head-and-Shoulders top area shown on the 6-month chart. On Friday, however, it surged back above the "neckline' of this pattern, which is close to aborting. Although Friday's rally was certainly impressive, we are definitely not out of the woods yet, as will be readily apparent when we look at the 6-year gold chart.

The strength of the move on Friday implies that we will see follow through over the next week or so, with a few down days thrown in. However the advance is likely to be capped once it reaches the $645 - $655 area, where there is substantial resistance - if it succeeds in getting that far. We will then need to review it in the light of what is going on in the T-bill and T-bond market and the dollar, with a view to possibly shorting it again.

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