Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Saturday, March 07, 2020

Gold and Silver Rally Back After Fed Emergency Interest Rate Cut / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Over the past few weeks and months, our research team has continued to sing the praises of precious metals – particularly Gold and Silver.  After last week’s dramatic selloff in precious metals (attributed mostly to margin call sales), both Gold and Silver rallied almost 3% on Tuesday, March 3 – the day the US Fed issued an emergency 0.50% rate cut.

We believe this move by the US Fed solidified a fear in the global markets that the central banks are preparing for a much broader economic contraction and attempting to front-run weakness by moving price rates lower.  This will help to ease capital restrictions, liquidity across global markets and spur some global borrowing at a time when the Coronavirus may continue to weigh on global economies.  Still, for skilled metals traders, this is likely the rocket fuel we need to see Gold rally above $1800 very quickly and for Silver to rally above $21 quickly as well.

Friday, March 06, 2020

Gold Is the Strongest Currency Since the Coronavirus Scare / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: MoneyMetals

Another tumultuous week in equity and interest rate markets has helped fuel a big pop in safe-haven demand for gold and silver.

The major market moving event was, of course, the Federal Reserve’s emergency rate cut on Tuesday. The Fed slashed its overnight funds rate by 50 basis points. But even before the Fed acted, the bond market had already forced its hand as yields on the 10-year Treasury note plunged to record low levels.

By Friday morning, the 10-year treasury yielded less than a paltry 0.90%. That represents almost no reward in exchange for the risk involved. Bond buyers are apparently willing to make a decade-long bet on U.S. government finances remaining solid and inflation remaining extremely low.

It’s still possible for bonds to experience capital appreciation if rates ultimately head to zero or below – as they have already done in other parts of the world. The Fed is almost certain to cut rates again. There is a good chance at least some portion of the yield curve will be at zero later in the year.

Friday, March 06, 2020

Fed Panics over Coronavirus. What’s Next for Gold? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Yesterday, the Fed cut interest rates by 50 basis points. Not during a regular monetary policy meeting, but in a surprising move. But what are the implications for the gold market specifically?

Fed Cuts Interest Rates in Emergency Move

Last week, I wrote that the spread of the new coronavirus to Europe and the inversion of the yield curve make “the Fed more likely to step in and cut the federal funds rate, you know, “just in case”. And in yesterday’s surprise move, the Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate by 50 basis points in response to the coronavirus threat. The decision was unanimous and it was communicated in the FOMC statement as follows:

Thursday, March 05, 2020

Will the Worst of Times for Central Bankers Lead to the Best of Times for Precious Metals? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: MoneyMetals

During turbulent times like these, markets can be melting down one day… and zooming higher the next. Gold may serve as a fantastic safe-haven asset one day… but get hammered by futures traders the next.

The news cycle can be just as volatile. One report may show the coronavirus is receding in China, while another may raise alarms about its spread in other parts of the world.

One poll may show a socialist candidate for President on the rise, while another may show Americans overwhelmingly approve of President Donald Trump’s handling of the economy.

Thursday, March 05, 2020

Gold: Learn from the Actions of the "Smartest on Wall Street" / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: EWI

Deep-pocketed speculators miss the big turns -- but you don't have to

Hedge fund managers are considered to be among the smartest people on Wall Street.

Ironically, as a group, they're notorious for consistently being on the wrong side of major turns in the markets they trade. By contrast, a group of insiders called Commercials are generally on the right side of major market turns.

Wednesday, March 04, 2020

Gold Price Trend Forecast 2020 / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This is the final part of my Gold price analysis that concludes in a detailed trend forecast for 2020 that was first made available to Patrons who support my work. Gold Price Trend Forecast 2020

• Gold Price Trend Forecasts 2019 Review
• SEASONAL ANALYSIS
• QE4EVER
• US DOLLAR
• LONG-TERM TREND ANALYSIS 
• Gold / SIlver Ratio
• Trend Analysis 
• ELLIOT WAVES
• Gold Price Trend Forecast 2020 Conclusion 

Tuesday, March 03, 2020

Massive Reversal in Precious Metals but Fundamentals Improving / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

To underscore the volatility of this past week, consider the price action in Silver. 

Silver, days ago, had a chance to make its highest monthly close since October 2016. That is well over three years ago. Silver closed the week and the month at its lowest levels in six months.

One week, precious metals (specifically gold stocks) are on the cusp of a historic breakout, and the next, they are blowing through support levels. Such can be life in this sector.

Before I get to fundamentals, let’s look at the technicals and critical levels for gold stocks.

Tuesday, March 03, 2020

Physical Gold and Silver Are Safe Havens, Futures Are Not / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: MoneyMetals

Last week’s market activity was another reminder that not all precious metals investments are created equal.

Investors worried about a virus outbreak and watching the blood bath on Wall Street rushed to buy coins, rounds, and bars.

As one of the largest and most respected U.S. dealers, Money Metals saw the biggest surge of buying activity in years. Clients bought the physical metal as a safe haven, knowing it is scarce, intrinsically valuable and carries no counterparty risk.

Meanwhile, the opposite occurred on the COMEX because buying contracts there is anything but safe.

Tuesday, March 03, 2020

Gold Pulled Back, But Coronavirus Did Not / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

While viruses are counted among the simplest forms of life, they have quite a bearing on its advanced forms. And the coronavirus epidemic is, unfortunately, alive and well. What are the implications for the gold market?

Coronavirus Infects Europe

The coronavirus epidemic is, unfortunately, making its presence well known. Actually, it spreads quickly around the globe. The worldwide number of confirmed cases has reached almost 90,000, while the death toll has surpassed 3,000 people.

Tuesday, March 03, 2020

Gold Trend Analysis, Elliott Waves and Silver Ratio / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Gold / SIlver Ratio

Gold price of $1560 divided of by the silver price of $18.07 results in a ratio of 86.3! The historic norm is for around 50. No I am not saying that Silver should trade to a ratio of 50 to Gold anytime soon. I will cover the prospects for the Silver price in a separate analysis.

So either Silver is CHEAP or Gold is EXPENSIVE, probably a mixture of both, which implies to expect Gold price weakness..

Tuesday, March 03, 2020

Everything you needed to know about investing in precious metals / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Sumeet_Manhas

Gold. Silver. Platinum. Palladium. Precious metals mined from the bowels of the earth, refined and valued for their unique characteristics.

Since the beginning of civilization itself, humanity has long held an obsession with what is known colloquially as “bling.” Nowadays rather than adorning ourselves with beads and seashells, we’ve turned to precious metal.

If one thing’s for certain, it’s that investors have always turned to precious metals in times of economic uncertainty. Whether it’s their tangible presence as hard assets or long history as a safe haven, precious metals are a great investment.

Tuesday, March 03, 2020

Gold Sets Up For Another Massive Move Higher / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Our research team believes the recent downward price activity in Gold and Silver are indicative of past price patterns we saw in Gold over the 2007 to 2012 rally.  Throughout almost every rally in precious metals (Gold), there have been a number of moderate to serious price corrections taking place within that extended rally.  The current downside move is moderately small compared to historical price rotation in Gold and potentially sets up a massive upside potential rally to levels above $2100 per ounce.

Weekly Gold Price Pattern from 2007 – 2017

This chart, below, highlights the downside price rotation that took place just before and as the US stock markets collapsed in late 2008 and 2009.  Notice how Gold collapsed nearly 28% right as extreme market weakness began to become present in the US stock market.  Then, pay attention to how Gold rallied from $730 in multiple upside price legs to a peak just below $1900 – well above 110%.  Could the same pattern already be setting up in 2020?

Sunday, March 01, 2020

Could Get Worse for Markets But Is a Gold/Silver Buying Opportunity / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: MoneyMetals

Mike Gleason: It is my privilege now to welcome back our good friend, Greg Weldon, CEO and President of Weldon Financial. Greg has decades of market research and trading experience specializing in the metals and commodity markets and even authored a book back in 2016 titled Gold Trading Boot Camp, where he accurately predicted the implosion of the US credit market and urged people to buy gold when it was only $550 an ounce.

He's regularly been making more great calls right here on our podcast over the years and it's great to have him on with us for the first time in 2020.

Greg, thanks as always for your time and welcome back. How are you?

Greg Weldon: I'm great Michael, thanks for the invite as always.

Sunday, March 01, 2020

Gold Stocks Spring Rally / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020

By: Zeal_LLC

Before their recent surge on gold regaining $1600, the gold stocks spent much of the past half-year or so largely drifting sideways to lower.  That high consolidation really weighed on sentiment, with greed giving way to apathy.  This sector normally tends to suffer a seasonal slump into mid-March, paving the way for gold stocks’ spring rally.  That’s their second-strongest seasonal surge of the year running into early June.

Seasonality is the tendency for prices to exhibit recurring patterns at certain times during the calendar year.  While seasonality doesn’t drive price action, it quantifies annually-repeating behavior driven by sentiment, technicals, and fundamentals.  We humans are creatures of habit and herd, which naturally colors our trading decisions.  The calendar year’s passage affects the timing and intensity of buying and selling.

Gold stocks exhibit strong seasonality because their price action mirrors that of their dominant primary driver, gold.  Gold’s seasonality generally isn’t driven by supply fluctuations like grown commodities see, as its mined supply remains relatively steady year-round.  Instead gold’s major seasonality is demand-driven, with global investment demand varying considerably depending on the time in the calendar year.

Sunday, March 01, 2020

Will Gold Shine Due to Coronavirus Infecting the Global Economy? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

With new cases of COVID-19 outside China rising, the chances of a pandemic and global recession have increased recently. What are the implications for the gold market?

Coronavirus Spreads Over the World

Unfortunately, the new coronavirus remains the hottest topic of the news. Although the COVID-19 epidemic has been slowing down in China since the beginning of February, it has quickly spread to several other countries. The WHO’s situation report from February 26 says that the infections of the new coronavirus has been reported in 37 countries. Actually, for the first time since the beginning of the epidemic on December 8, there have been more new cases reported from countries outside of China than from China. With so many countries, including the Western ones, struggling with the disease, the COVID-19 ceased to be Asian issue and has become a truly global issue. As world inches closer to the real pandemic, the financial markets could become even more nervous, so we could see more safe-haven flows into the gold market.

Sunday, March 01, 2020

Sweden Ends Its Experiment with Negative Interest Rates. Should Gold Be Worried? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

In December, the Sveriges Riksbank, the world’s oldest central bank, has raised the main interest rate from -0.25 percent back to zero, ending its experiment with the negative interest rate policy, as the chart below shows.

Chart 1: Riksbank’s repo rate from January 2010 to January 2020.

Sunday, March 01, 2020

Gold And Stocks Are Both Headed Lower, But… / Commodities / Global Debt Crisis 2020

By: Kelsey_Williams

Gold and stocks are moving south together; but they are not correlated. Nor, are they inversely correlated, as some gold enthusiasts claim.

Reference to gold as a safe haven has some investors buying gold to hedge against a stock market crash. It is almost as if gold has become a pseudo defensive stock.

It seems investors actually expect gold’s price to go up when the stock market goes down; and vice-versa.

If that were the case, how do you explain the extended periods when both moved together; or the price action of gold relative to stocks in the past four days? Gold currently is lower in price than it was before stocks tumbled nearly 4000 points.

Thursday, February 27, 2020

Oil Price Is Now More Volatile Than Bitcoin / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

You know that the oil markets have truly gone to the dogs when they are suddenly riskier than one of the world’s most volatile commodities: bitcoin.  

Bitcoin and most cryptocurrencies are synonymous with extreme bouts of volatility. However, it’s crude oil that is now earning that dubious distinction after exhibiting price swings wilder than even the leading cryptocurrency.

On February 10, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil’s one-month realized, or historical, price volatility stood at 105.3%. In contrast, bitcoin's historical volatility clocked in at 42.3%, its lowest reading since September, according to Skew Markets.

Thursday, February 27, 2020

Gold and Silver The Die Is Cast / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: The_Gold_Report

Sector expert Michael Ballanger charts the latest changes in the markets and prognosticates on when and why silver prices should make a move.

One of my good friends from the 1980s and 1990s was the late Ian McAvity, a superb technical analyst, a founder of Central Fund of Canada, a Bay Street Mover and, most importantly, a humble and thoroughly enjoyable man. He was the first newsletter writer that I came across in my early years as a "registered rep," totally committed to technical analysis but with an undying and near-prophetical emphasis on precious metals.

It was in the 1980s, with gold having entered what would become a 21-year bear market. Many of the newsletter-flogging gloom-and-doomsters were making outrageous claims of "$1,000, $2000, $5,000 gold!!!" in a desperate (and unsuccessful) effort to distract their patrons away from the fledgling new bull market in stocks, which went on to dominate the investment horizons until the century came to its abrupt terminus. I liked Ian's style because in the mid-1980s, his bearish technical assessment of gold turned out to be not only disappointedly spot on, but also quite a refreshingly contrarian approach.

Wednesday, February 26, 2020

Gold Price Long-term Trend Analysis Forecast 2020 / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The gold bull market ended 2019 with a strong gain of 19%. The first half the year was marked with uncertainty as the price after an early year surge to $1350 gave up all of it's gains to drift lower to trade down on the year by early May. However, this was the calm before the bull market storm and that set the stage for a powerful bull run starting early June that saw the Gold price rocket higher to a early September peak of $1566, up over 25% on the year! Igniting Gold bug fever and encouraging prominent gold bugs to get carried away with headlines of Gold heading for $5000 and beyond.