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Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Commodities

Tuesday, June 10, 2014

GOLD Price Could Test $1000 - Elliott Wave Analysis / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: Gregor_Horvat

GOLD Weekly

Gold is in sharp reversal mode from all time highs after a completed big five wave rally, so current pullback is probably corrective. We are tracking two counts, where both suggests another leg down. The primary labeling suggests that market is now in sub-wave 4) of (C) that could bottom around 1000 psychological level at the end of the year, or maybe in 2014.

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Commodities

Monday, June 09, 2014

U.S. Bank’s Silver Short Positions send Buy Signal / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: Submissions

Gold Reporter writes: U.S. Bank’s net short positions have dropped to lowest value in at least 5 years. Could indicate short term anti-cyclic buy signal.

In early June, U.S. banks trading future-contracts at the COMEX, only held a total of 13,234 contracts in net short positions, which equals 2,057 tons of silver forward-sales and depicts the lowest value since Goldreporter started analyzing the monthly data 5 years ago (see chart). For comparison: In February 2013 U.S. banks were 6,249 tons short!

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Commodities

Monday, June 09, 2014

Gold Bullish Summer Seasonals for July, August and September 2014 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: Clive_Maund

Although gold remains on the defensive following its latest breakdown, the longer-term outlook remains very good. We can see why on the 2 long-term charts shown below.

On the 14-year log chart the retreat from the 2011 highs still looks like a correction within an ongoing major uptrend - which is not an unreasonable interpretation given that they have not stopped printing money. Gold looks like it has been basing over the past year above its long-term uptrend line, and at this point it looks like the support level at last year's lows at about $1180 will hold, although there are reasons why we could see near-term weakness towards this support that we will consider shortly.

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Commodities

Monday, June 09, 2014

Silver Price Bottom Targets $37.5 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: Clive_Maund

The public are now extremely bearish on silver, with a widespread perception that it is "done for", but as we will see, even if there is some further short-term weakness, the longer-term outlook for silver is very bright indeed.

On its 14-year chart, which shows all of the bullmarket in silver from its inception, we can see that, although the drop from the 2011 peak has been severe, involving losses of more than 60% from the highs, it has not thus far resulted in a breakdown from its long-term uptrend, which remains intact. Over the past year silver appears to have been basing in the zone of strong support shown with its supporting long-term trendline gradually coming into play to provide additional support. This is in fact the perfect setup for a major new uptrend to begin, and the only further supporting factor required is a favorable COT structure - and that we now have.

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Commodities

Monday, June 09, 2014

Gold and Silver Divergence vs Stock Markets / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: Rambus_Chartology

In this report I would like to look at some charts for the precious metals complex and some stock markets that have been moving opposite to each since the PM sector topped out in 2011.

PRECIOUS METALS

First lets look at a daily chart for gold that shows the bearish blue falling wedge that broke down about two weeks ago. Right now it's in the process of backtesting the bottom rail around the 1265 area, I also drew in a thin black dashed horizontal line under all the previous lows at 1280, which should also act as resistance if the bottom rail of the falling wedge gets strongly backtested. The all important 150 moving average comes in today at 1279.65. As you can see from the March high gold has been making lower lows and lower highs for the most part which constitutes a downtrend.

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Commodities

Monday, June 09, 2014

Negative Interest Rates Fail to Change Trend in Silver - MAP Wave Analysis / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: Marc_Horn

I have found some time to update silver and gold, and last weeks negative interest rate announcement by the ECB managed no more than to affect the centi fractal wave scale, not even putting a blip on the deci wave scale! The downtrend continues and I am beyond words about the stupidity of the decision. WE ARE IN A DEFLATIONAY SPIRAL GLOBALLY and even though critics will argue. This is confirmation of information that we have all known for a long time, however if there is one thing guaranteed - politiicans will only act once it is too late - CRISIS MANAGEMENT! I suspect France was pushing hard, as the French economy is now officially even LESS PRODUCTIVE than Greece!
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Commodities

Sunday, June 08, 2014

Crude Oil Price Turns Bearish / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Gregor_Horvat

Crude Oil has turned bearish recently, away from 104.00-104.50 resistance where we were looking for a wave (d) high. Notice that market turned nicely down, through the support channel line that confirms the bearish view for a three wave drop into wave (e) back to 100-101 area. Once those levels will be seen, we will turn bullish as big triangle since March could then be near completion. At the moment we see wave c) down in progress so triangle can already be in final stages.

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Commodities

Saturday, June 07, 2014

Gold And Silver – Let “Dollar” Collapse Or Choose War. Elites Will Opt For War / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: Michael_Noonan

The world has never been in a position like this before, where all global currencies are fiat and dependent upon central banker power. The push for a New World Order is inexorable, and make no mistake, the monied elites are fully in control, or almost so. We maintain this is why so many in the Precious Metals community have miscalculated the timing for when gold and silver would take off to the upside, collapsing the Fed's fiat "dollar," or as a result thereof.

Ukraine is truly the test where East meets West. It is the US-led coup that is a staging ground for an assault on Russia. Obama is leading the charge, once again, choosing the drums of war to get across the message that to challenge the supremacy of the "dollar" as the world's reserve currency, [as the ATM machine used by the elites to pillage the world's assets and remain in control], can have a serious outcome.

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Commodities

Saturday, June 07, 2014

Gold and Silver Negative Interest Rates Have Arrived / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: Jesse

"We have been silent witnesses of evil deeds; we have been drenched by many storms; we have learnt the arts of equivocation and pretence; experience has made us suspicious of others and kept us from being truthful and open; intolerable conflicts have worn us down and even made us cynical.

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Commodities

Friday, June 06, 2014

Bullish Record Gold and Silver Futures Shorting / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: Zeal_LLC

The precious metals plunged last week, knifing through key support zones to unleash an explosion of bearish sentiment.  This troubling heavy selling wasn’t news-driven, it emerged out of the blue.  Who was dumping gold and why?  Later data confirmed it was American futures speculators short selling gold and silver at record levels.  Extreme shorting is very bullish, as these bets soon have to be covered.

The gold and silver price action has been exceedingly anomalous since early 2013.  That’s when the Federal Reserve fomented a melt-up in the general stock markets, through both monetizing debt and jawboning implying it was backstopping stock prices.  The levitating stock markets gradually sucked all life away from alternative investments including gold, which was crushed by epic selling of gold-ETF shares.

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Commodities

Friday, June 06, 2014

Crude Oil Prices, Opec And Other Peak Oil Stories / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Andrew_McKillop

When In Doubt, Worry About Oil
One of the starkest oil worry pot pourri presentations – ruthlessly mingling fact, fiction and fantasy (but pretending its all fact) – can be had here http://energypolicy.columbia.edu...

Steve Kopits is the Managing Director of a known and still-in-business oil and energy forecasting firm, Douglas-Westwood. Both Kopits and D-W would appear to be (still) employable, but for how much longer we can only guess. The Kopits presentation is showcased by the Dublin sustainable economy and development firm FEASTA, with an even more ghastly presentation by David Knight called 'Peak Oil and Climate Change – Two Sides of the Same Coin?' FEASTA says that, as it perceives things,  Global Warming and Peak Oil are the two largest threats to the planet, human life and civilization.

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Commodities

Friday, June 06, 2014

Clarifying Asian Gold Strategy / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: Alasdair_Macleod

The Russians came up with an extraordinary statement recently, central to why Russia and China are buying gold, the importance of which was missed by the media. President Putin said that “Russia and China need to secure their gold and foreign reserves.” He may have been overstepping the mark in making comments about China’s monetary policy, but he was unlikely to have done so without good reason. Furthermore it is impossible to secure foreign currency reserves, because they are at all times under the control of the issuing central banks. So what Putin was actually implying was that China and Russia need to secure their gold.

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Commodities

Friday, June 06, 2014

Gold in Near-Death Experience on Comex / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: Alasdair_Macleod

Well, it's a bit of an exaggeration, but for the first three days of this week daily turnover in the gold future fell to about 80,000 contracts, compared with a more normal level of 120,000. At the same time volatility fell to as close to zero as you can get. The week started with the gold price at $1241 and until yesterday at 1.00pm UK time stuck to a tight range of $7 centred on $1244. Open interest picked up a little, as shown in our first chart.

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Commodities

Friday, June 06, 2014

Solar Roadways: Turning Pavement into Power / Commodities / Solar Energy

By: Money_Morning

Dr. Kent Moors writes: If you haven’t heard of Scott and Julie Brusaw yet, chances are you will before too long.

They are the founders of a crowd-funded idea that may just revolutionize both transportation and energy.

It is the coolest idea I’ve seen in quite some time. It’s so inventive it could flat-out change everything we think about power.

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Commodities

Friday, June 06, 2014

Gold Price Key Fundamental Driver / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

Barry Ritholtz is out with another article spelling more doom for the precious metals sector and the gold bugs. The self proclaimed “Gold Agnostic” penned a 2500 word missive in January which followed a blog post amid the spring 2013 collapse titled “What are Gold’s Fundamentals.” For the record, Ritholtz’s calls on the markets and Gold have been very good. He was bullish during most of the 2001-2011 advance and sold out prior to the 2013 breakdown. Give credit where credit is due. Yet, while the anti-gold and anti-gold bug mainstream eat up his gold analysis like a lap dog we have to mention some errors and a startling omission of Gold’s key driving force.

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Commodities

Friday, June 06, 2014

The Platinum Supply Shock / Commodities / Platinum

By: Peter_Schiff

Even investors who typically eschew precious metals have been hard-pressed to ignore the platinum industry this year. The longest strike in South African history paired with surging Asian demand is set to push the metal back into a physical deficit in 2014 - and could have repercussions for years to come. While gold remains the most conservative choice for saving, the "industrial precious metal" platinum is a compelling investment for those, like me, who are bullish on global net economic growth.

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Commodities

Thursday, June 05, 2014

Gold - Possession is Nine-Tenths of the Law / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis

"...Even though the property was originally stolen, that if the victim or his heirs cannot be found, and if the current possessor was not the actual criminal who stole the property, then title to that property belongs properly, justly, and ethically to its current possessor." - Murray Rothbard

If you don't hold it, you don't own it. This should be the soothing mantra for all long term precious metals holders. 

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Commodities

Wednesday, June 04, 2014

Gold and Crude Oil Commodities Elliott Wave Analysis / Commodities / Commodities Trading

By: Gregor_Horvat

Gold broke to the downside last week, out of triangle pattern that was placed in wave (b) so current leg down should be wave (c) as part of D of a big triangle from a daily chart. We know that wave (c) is impulsive wave so we need to be aware of a bullish reversal after a five wave drop from wave e) swing high. In the last few sessions market slowed down around 1240-1245 so it's probably wave iv)so decline could extend down to 1230 by the end of the week.

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Commodities

Wednesday, June 04, 2014

The Effect of Monetary Policy on Gold Prices / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: Bob_Kirtley

Background
Gold prices have fallen for 6 days in a row taking the price down to $1243/oz and it now stands about $60/oz above the 2013 June lows. Silver prices suffered the same fate falling from $19.50/oz to $18.75/oz. The gold producers as represented by the Gold Bugs Index the HUI is down to 204 which is lower than the 2013 June lows. We can look to the summer doldrums or the ‘sell May and go away’ investors when we try to account for these falls but the truth is that this tiny sector has been suffering for a couple of years now.

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Commodities

Tuesday, June 03, 2014

When Will Gold Price Bottom? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: Ed_Carlson

Gold lost $46/oz. last week to close at $1,245.60 and, while it might not feel like it, gold is still up $43.70 for the year. My price forecasting model generates a target of 1,206 for this decline. Seasonally, gold tends to make a bottom of undetermined degree in the period from June to July.

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