Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Tuesday, January 06, 2015

Falling Oil Prices and Gold Market / Commodities / Commodities Trading

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

In the last Market Overview we pointed out some signals indicating that recession may be on the U.S. horizon. There is no doubt that a possible outbreak of the crisis would have important implications for the whole global economy, including of course the gold market. Therefore, it is extremely important to analyze gold performance through business cycle.

Tuesday, January 06, 2015

Next Energy Crisis As Early As 2016 / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

Low oil prices today may be setting the world up for an oil shortage as early as 2016. Today we have just 2% more crude oil supply than demand and the price of gasoline is under $2.00/gallon in Texas. If oil supply falls too far, we could see gasoline prices doubling within 18 months. For a commodity as critical to our standard of living as oil is, it only takes a small shortage to drive up the price.

Tuesday, January 06, 2015

This Oil Thing Is The Real Deal / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Raul_I_Meijer

Well! WTI below $50 and Brent below $53 when I start writing this. Who knows where they’ll be by the time I’m finished?! The euro down below $1.20, US stocks flirting with -2%, major European ones off -3%, Italy and Greece over -5%. Welcome to the real world, baby! Didn’t think you’d see it again so soon, did you? Welcome to the world where the Kool-Aid recovery does not reign supreme.

Not that you’re not going to hear that anymore, and 24/7 incessantly so, but there’s no recovery with these oil prices, no matter what anybody says. The damage must be gargantuan by now. Everybody’s invested in oil. Sure, lots of shorts and stuff by now, but that’s not going to do much good. Not for pensions funds, or for governments. This thing will not blow up or over softly.

Tuesday, January 06, 2015

Investing During the Era of Peak Gold Discoveries / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2015

By: The_Gold_Report

We've hit peak economic gold discoveries, but unlike the new fracking technologies that saved the oil industry, there's no fracking technology to coax mineral wealth from ever-deeper deposits. In the face of this shortage, expert geologist Brent Cook of Exploration Insights is scouting out companies that are cashed up and poised to deliver value when other miners may be left scraping the bottom of the barrel. In this interview with The Gold Report, find out what Cook expects for gold exploration in 2015, and why the next few years are going to be very interesting indeed for yellow metal miners.

Monday, January 05, 2015

Oil Price Plunge, When Exactly Are Falling Prices Bad? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Peter_Schiff

The sudden fall in the price of oil provides a unique opportunity to examine the widely held belief that deflation is economic poison. As many governments and central banks have vowed to fight deflation at all costs in 2015, the question could hardly be more significant.

While falling prices may strike the layman as cause for celebration, economists believe that it can kick off a nasty, and often inescapable, negative cycle, which many believe leads inevitably to a prolonged recession, or even a depression. However, these same economists acknowledge that falling energy prices may offer a stimulus, equivalent to an enormous "tax cut," particularly for lower and middle income consumers for whom energy costs represent a major portion of disposable income. They suggest that the money consumers and businesses no longer spend on gasoline and heating oil could be spent on other goods and services thereby creating demand in other areas of the economy. Even Fed Chair Janet Yellen, a staunch advocate of the economic benefits of rising consumer prices, has extolled the benefits of falling oil prices.

Monday, January 05, 2015

Gold Price Was Up 73% Last Year! / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: Jeff_Clark

Dmitry sipped his coffee drink at his favorite café in Moscow, flipping through the newspaper in front of him. It was full of bad news: currency troubles, ongoing sanctions from the West, rising inflation, and more.

But he ignored all that. He turned to the investment section and began to scan the page, looking for the latest price of one specific investment. He went past the headline that screamed Russia’s inflation rate was up to 11.4% last year, as well as the article detailing the ruble’s debilitating 46.5% fall. He knew all those things and had experienced them firsthand.

Sunday, January 04, 2015

Gold Price Looks Ready to Go Higher from Here / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: MarketsToday

The big picture in Gold hasn’t changed much over the past month. For approximately nine weeks now Gold has been consolidating around prior support of 1,182.20, a price first hit back in June of 2013. This price area was then tested as support first in December 2013, then more recently in May 2014. During that 16-month time frame Gold consolidated forming a bearish descending triangle pattern. It broke out to the downside nine weeks ago. However, there has been no follow through as it bounced off 1,132.08 and has crept higher since, closing at 1,189.60 last week.

Sunday, January 04, 2015

PHLX Gold/Silver Index (XAU) and Rare Earths ETF (REMX) Analysis / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2015

By: Austin_Galt

PHLX Gold/Silver Index (XAU) and Rare Earths ETF (REMX) Analysis

XAU
The Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index (XAU) consists of sixteen precious metals mining companies that is traded on the oldest stock exchange in the United States – the Philadelphia Stock Exchange which was purchased by NASDAQ in 2008. Price last traded at $70.51.

Let’s take a top down approach to the analysis beginning with the yearly chart.

Saturday, January 03, 2015

The Energy Sector Takes 2015 by Storm / Commodities / Energy Resources

By: DailyWealth

Rachel Gearhart writes: Stocks are booming, the economy is growing, the job market is strengthening and it’s looking like the prosperity will continue into 2015.

With the bombardment of doom-and-gloom business news, that may feel more like wishful thinking than reality. So let’s allow the numbers to tell the tale.

In 2014, American-based mergers and acquisitions rung in at $1.52 trillion, up from $998 billion in 2013.

Saturday, January 03, 2015

Gold And Silver - 2013, 2014, 2015...Expect More Of The Same / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Michael_Noonan

Each week, we prepare a selection of newsworthy events to which the current market can explained, somewhat. This week is no exception, save one difference, that being so many want to see/hear some kind of look into the prospects for the year ahead. Our look ahead starts with a rear view mirror look back at 2014. In hindsight, we began 2014 with a positive outlook, but that quickly changed into the view that 2014 could turn out to be just like 2013...no big rally. On that score, we were on point.

Before engaging in a review, we have abandoned providing any background news, this week, because for us, the most important news moving forward is found in the six charts that follow. If you are willing to accept the message the market is giving to everyone, you will understand the folly of those who opt to make price "predictions." Keep in mind, a good many of the experts with the largest followings were touting a price breakout by the end of 2014. None called for new recent lows, and if someone did, our apologies for not knowing who you are. Bottom line: predictions are a waste of time.

Saturday, January 03, 2015

2015: Why's the Oil Price Collapsing? Answer: $8+ Trillion Carry Trade / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: DK_Matai

Most in the media are utterly clueless about what's coming in 2015. It is incumbent upon ATCA 5000 to clarify the situation as we did prior to the start of The Great Reset and The Great Unwind during 2007-2008 based on our global intelligence gathering, detailed scenario planning and mathematical modelling of capital allocation and trans-national flows:

Friday, January 02, 2015

Why You Need to Own Gold In 2015 and Beyond / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Submissions

Clint Siegner writes: Debt is a rock, and spending reform is a hard place. The taxpayers of today and tomorrow are saddled with crushing obligations. Yet we must watch helplessly as leadership in Washington DC continues expanding government -- borrowing what they can and simply printing what they cannot.
Each day more Americans sense a reckoning is coming. Our government is increasingly insolvent. The unbacked dollar is certain to be worth less, and it may not survive at all.

Friday, January 02, 2015

Gold Stocks GDXJ Potential Upside Target 2015 / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2015

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

As 2015 begins I’d like to briefly follow up on my most recent article in which I discussed the oversold condition in the miners. Breadth indicators as well as technical indicators (such as distance from the 200-day moving average) showed the miners reaching an extreme oversold condition in November and nearly again only a few weeks ago. Miners essentially were at their third most oversold point since 2001. The other two were during the 2008 financial crisis and during Gold’s spring collapse in 2013. The current oversold condition combined with the failure of most indices to make new lows in December could be the setup for a first quarter rebound.

Thursday, January 01, 2015

Gold Price Trend Forecast 2015 Video / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Gold bug expectations for the Gold price to soar during 2014 once more failed to materialise for a third year with the Gold price ending down on the year at $1180 against $1204 at its start. Will 2015 be any different? Find out in this video analysis that concludes in a detailed trend forecast for 2015.

Thursday, January 01, 2015

Natural Resource investors Resolve to Do Better in 2015 / Commodities / Resources Investing

By: The_Gold_Report

As natural resource investors take stock of their 2014 portfolio shifts and make adjustments for 2015, The Gold Report quizzed top experts in the sector on what resolutions they are making and—perhaps more important—what steps they are taking to make sure they will stick to the hard choices they have vowed. We want to know if you are taking the same steps, have your own plan to make the most of whatever happens in the sector or just plain disagree. Please use the comment section to let us know what you will be investing in as we bravely face a new year.

Thursday, January 01, 2015

Gold Price Targets for 2015 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Rambus_Chartology

Below is a gold chart I worked on this weekend. It has a lot of information on it to digest. First thing to note is the top rail of the black falling wedge. As you can see the top rail comes in around the 1215 to 1220 area. Not that it means anything but the two black rectangles are exactly the same size that measures time and price for the rectangle on top and our current triangle below. If our current triangle plays out as a halfway pattern, I have it measured using the BO to BO and the impulse method with the price objectives at the bottom of the chart. I think we could see a small halfway pattern form during the second impulse move down before the actual price targets are hit. The very bottom price objective is the 2008 crash low at 685 which looks like it would hit the bottom rail in October. Something to watch when the bottom rail gives way.

Wednesday, December 31, 2014

Gold Beat All Other World Currencies in 2014 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: Frank_Holmes

"Gold is money. Everything else is credit."~ J.P. Morgan in 1912

Loyal readers of our Investor Alert and my blog Frank Talk are no doubt aware that the U.S. dollar's rising strength has put pressure on commodities such as oil and gold. I wrote about this as recently as my roundup of the top commodities stories of 2014, which you can read here.

Wednesday, December 31, 2014

Gold and Silver Stocks Could Not Look Better Going Into 2015 / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2015

By: Clive_Maund

In this article we are going to look at compelling evidence that the Precious Metals sector is either at or very close to a major bottom, and see why the chances are high that the sector will rally strongly in the New Year.

You have all heard the old adages about "buying low and selling high" and how the time to buy is when there is "blood running in the streets". Never have these adages been more applicable than they are now to the Precious Metals sector, where even the most diehard bulls have had enough and thrown in the towel.

Wednesday, December 31, 2014

Crude Oil Large Speculators Play Catch a Falling Knife / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Dan_Norcini

Another week – another CFTC report – more of the same, namely the large speculative category, hedge funds and other reportable traders, continue their love affair with crude oil. This, in spite of the fact that the black goo has lost 50% of its price since June of this year.

I have said now for the last few weeks and will say it once more, I am completely mystified and baffled as to how the supposedly smartest and most informed traders on the planet could have gotten this market so wrong. Not only that, but that they continue to stay wrong!

Wednesday, December 31, 2014

Gold Price Trend Forecast 2015 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Nadeem_Walayat

There is no metal quite like gold as history shows that humans have a special attraction towards gold as this metal like a parasite has held power over humanity far beyond any rational importance as a resource, even to the extent that hundreds of thousands have been put to death in its pursuit, even whole civilisations extinguished so that GOLD could adorn the GOD temples of Europe and elsewhere. Today's GOLD obsession manifests itself in the Gold bug army that relentlessly chants its second coming with never changing prophecies of Gold's eventual rise to new highs. And as it was for 2013, so were the expectations for 2014 for the price of Gold to soar into the stratosphere bitcoin spike style with the 2011 high of $1901 merely acting as a stepping stone all the way to $5,000, then $10,000 and beyond.