Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Thursday, January 02, 2014
Gold Stocks Outlook 2014 / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2014
By: WavePatternTraders
This is an update from the last report, the ideas still appear to be working so little has changed from the last report, and many stocks appear to still need a bit more downside.
I will keep it brief as usual and let the charts explain the ideas, with a little commentary.
The big theme going into 2014 is to be looking for an intermediate low on many Gold stocks, both Gold and Gold stocks in my opinion are much closer to a substantial low and one that traders can look to trade, than more downside, many of the Gold stocks have been completely destroyed, so I suspect we have limited downside based on the patterns and the potential for some decent upside moves. Although we will need to see Gold put in a low and finish a suspected 5 wave decline from the 2011 high, Gold currently appears to be in wave [5], so a target of 1150-1180.
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Wednesday, January 01, 2014
Gold Frustrating 2013 - Optimist or Pessimist for 2014? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Aden_Forecast
Gold's been frustrating, to say the least. Plus, its characteristics changed in September.
Weak Signs
Gold failed to rise during its best seasonal time, and when the dollar was declining. These factors alone were bearish signs.
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Wednesday, January 01, 2014
Western Gold and Silver ETF Inventory Changes 2013 Saw 942 Tonnes Gold Disappear / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Jesse
The drain of gold from the Western ETFs and Funds is apparent. About 942 net tonnes have been removed. This compares to the 856 tonnes that had been removed as of mid-December. That is quite a bit of bullion moving out in just a few weeks.
But even more notably, this is in sharp contrast to silver, which has had about 992 net tonnes added. On a percentage basis silver has had a worse price performance this year compared to gold, so ascribing this to investor preference seems a bit thin.
Note: This is certainly an interesting phenomenon. It will be worth remembering I suspect. As an aside, I would like to address a recurring pet peeve of mine. The financial spokesmodels will often look at the drawdowns in the GLD inventory and say, 'investors were dumping gold today.' All this gold, that no one seemingly wants, and yet the New York Fed cannot find enough bullion to return Germany's gold, and for seven years. What about the gold they hold that no one has yet asked about? Where does this all lead? Follow the yellow brick road, or more appropriately, the river of gold. Judging from the overall import and export numbers, it is quite the golden river, flowing from west to east. It is caught in the tide of history, as are we all. These figures are from 12/31/2012 through 12/30/2013 and are courtesy of Nick Laird at Sharelynx.com. http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com Welcome to Jesse's Café Américain - These are personal observations about the economy and the markets. In plewis roviding information, we hope this allows you to make your own decisions in an informed manner, even if it is from learning by our mistakes, which are many. © 2013 Copyright Jesse's Café Américain - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.
There seems to be little question that the gold market is being manipulated by some big players. And there is certainly quite a bit of precedent for this manipulation. The bigger questions are the motives, and the course of the endgame, this time. All manipulations end, eventually.
Where were they dumping it, into the ocean?
No, the gold has been moving from the custody of GLD as Authorized Participants, aka the usual suspects, redeem bullion from the ETF, and send it elsewhere.
By Jesse
Tuesday, December 31, 2013
Gold and Silver Precious Metals Forecast 2014 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Alasdair_Macleod
Now the New Year reviving old desires The thoughtful Soul to Solitude retires" Rubaiyat of Omar Khayyam
Yes folks, it's that time of year again; but unlike old Khayyam who reflected bucolically on the continuing availability of wine, we must turn our thoughts to the dangers and opportunities of the coming year. They are considerable and multi-faceted, but instead of being drawn into the futility of making forecasts I will only offer readers the barest of basics and focus on the corruption of currencies. My conclusion is the overwhelming danger is of currency destruction and that gold is central to their downfall.
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Tuesday, December 31, 2013
Metals Market Manipulation - What Big Banks Are Hiding from You Now / Commodities / Metals & Mining
By: Money_Morning
Remember the outrage last July when we found out owners of giant metal storage warehouses, folks like Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase, were delaying delivery of stocks of aluminum so that they could collect more rent on them?
We learned that, since Goldman took over some industrial warehouses in Detroit, the delivery time for aluminum went from six weeks to 16 months.
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Tuesday, December 31, 2013
Gold Price and the 120-year Cycle Bottom / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Clif_Droke
Trading volume across all exchanges has been muted lately due to the holidays. Traders are still mostly on vacation which has produced low volatility and a lack of excitement. Not much is going on in the news front, either.
There was one news headline recently that was quite conspicuous, however. A news site known as the Deccan Chronicle (www.deccanchronicle.com) published a story on Dec. 25 entitled, "Lift of import curbs may crash gold prices." The story was in reference to the Indian government's proposal to relax import duties on gold. Dharmesh Bhatia, of Kotak Commodities Services Ltd., was quoted in the article as predicting a gold price crash if the Indian government removes the duties on gold imports or even relaxes the curbs significantly.
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Tuesday, December 31, 2013
Silver Price Forecast to Hit New Highs As Quality Of Analysis Falls To New Lows / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Steve_St_Angelo
The coming explosion in the value of silver will be a shock to the world due to the failure of the analyst community. I am completely amazed at the lack of quality analysis today. Except for a few good analysts, there's a sea of lousy ones who continue to put out work that becomes increasingly worthless each and every passing day.
While we can totally write-off most of the forecasting that comes from the MSM - Main Stream Media, I am quite surprised at the amount of garbage coming from the alternative media. I don't mean to be blunt here, but sometimes it's best to be honest.
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Tuesday, December 31, 2013
Gold's Rally and U.S. Dollar's Decline or Vice Versa? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: P_Radomski_CFA
In our Dec. 20 commentary, we discussed the outlook for the USD Index, Euro Index, and how these currencies were likely to impact gold. We summarized the essay by writing that the situation was bullish for the USD Index, and bearish for the euro. We wrote that the implications for gold were bearish. That was 10 days ago and we haven't seen any big price swings since then (except for an intra-day decline in the USD Index, but we will move to that in just a few paragraphs). Has anything changed? Was there any kind of confirmation or invalidation that would increase the bullishness of the situation for gold? Or, perhaps, the situation is even worse now than it was before (despite a small move higher)? Let's take a look (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).
Monday, December 30, 2013
Bear Market Bottoms: Gold Stocks Once-in-a-Lifetime Opportunities / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2014
By: Toby_Connor
Last week I wrote an article on why I think the bull market in stocks is coming to an end. As usual the retail public is chasing a move that is extremely mature and ripe to reverse, while assuming that the current trend will continue. Amateurs always make this mistake at tops ... and bottoms. Their emotions tell them the move will continue indefinitely. It never does.
As you can see in this next chart, dumb money traders are becoming more and more confident the further this parabolic move progresses. Professional traders, on the other hand, get more and more nervous as the market stretches further and further above the mean.
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Monday, December 30, 2013
The Gold Owner's Price Guide for 2014 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Michael_J_Kosares
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." - Yogi Berra, baseball philosopher
Since the beginning of gold's bull market in the early 2000s, we have recommended an unambiguous course of action: Own the physical metal -- fully paid for and stored nearby -- then sit back and watch the show.
Part of watching the show is the forecast and prediction festivities that greet each New Year. This year's entries will be of special interest to gold owners coming off the first down year for gold in the past thirteen. As our good friend, James Turk, says further on: "One losing year after 12 winning years is not that bad."
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Monday, December 30, 2013
Basic Materials Sector Stocks Investor Opportunities / Commodities / Metals & Mining
By: Rambus_Chartology
Rambus Chartology has been focusing on the Precious Metals for the most part as that is where the most compelling Chartolgy has been.
But tonite I would like to switch gears and visit a different sector which is looking very interesting to say the least.
About every two or three months or so I do a post on the Basic Materials sector just too keep an eye one what is happening there. It has been somewhat mixed for the most part but it now seems to be gaining some momentum. As you know I've taken a couple of position related to the area recently. I tried the shippers a month or so ago but got stopped out on a hard backtest but I could see the potential starting to build for this undervalued area. The latest bout of strength still hasn't shown up in the CCI commodities index as it has been flat lining on top of a long term support and resistance rail that goes all the way back to 2007. So far the CCI has corrected 50% of the move off the 2008 low which it has been holding for some time now.
Monday, December 30, 2013
Bitcoin Volatile Elephant in the Room Takes on Gold, Pros vs Cons / Commodities / Bitcoin
By: John_Browne
Ever since President Nixon broke the US dollar's last link to gold, the world has been set adrift on a sea of fiat currencies that have been increasingly debased, serving the interests of governments and financial elites. For the last five years, central banks have imposed near-zero rates of interest that have helped push up stock, bond, and real estate prices, but have made it nearly impossible for savers to receive meaningful returns on bank deposits.
Saturday, December 28, 2013
Gold And Silver 2014 Sharply Higher Prices? Be Careful What You Wish For / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Michael_Noonan
2013 comes to an end, and with it all those calls for gold and silver to be at much higher price levels. What will 2014 bring? More and more renewed calls for much higher price levels. Will 2014 be the year?
It is a possibility, but as the expression goes, "Be careful of what you wish for." So many who expect gold to exceed $3,000, even $10, 000, while for silver $100 and higher, but what are the expectations for how circumstances will be with PM at the higher end?
Saturday, December 28, 2013
The Mechanics of Gold and Silver Price Manipulation / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013
By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis
Much confusion persists regarding the method, or mechanics, of how the big banks are able to push the price of precious metals around at will for so long.
GATA and Ted Butler have long established and outlined the reasons why this occurs (legally). They have also established the foundation that forms the basis of how the manipulation unfolds. Despite very clear and concise commentary, the message sometimes becomes diluted in its distribution. This situation makes for easy picking from the hard-core opposition who mainly reside, ironically, as part of the professional mining and trading community.
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Saturday, December 28, 2013
Crude Oil Price Corrective Rally / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Gregor_Horvat
Crude oil is still trading to the upside towards $100 per barel. It seems that move from 96.20 is in five waves so we adjusted the wave count as market could already be making wave C, final leg of wave 4) that could turn down from 100-101 resistancea area.
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Friday, December 27, 2013
Silver Stocks ETF's / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2013
By: Zeal_LLC
2013 has been a brutal year for silver. And a brutal year for a metal obviously doesn’t bode well for its mining stocks. Companies that have been exploring for deposits, developing mines, and producing silver have sadly become the pariahs of the markets. But if silver’s fortunes change in 2014, as they ought to, then right now could be one of the best buying opportunities of this entire secular bull market.
Unfortunately silver is currently in a sentiment wasteland. Even contemplating a foray into this metal, let alone its stocks, is a fool’s errand to the majority of mainstream investors. Their mindset is why bother wasting even a cent of precious capital investing in a sector led by an asset that’s down 36% on the year. It’s much more prudent to throw money at the ever-rising stock markets, right?
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Friday, December 27, 2013
Gold Opening / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013
By: Submissions
Thomas Clayton writes: Above red EMA9
Minimal Red Volume Bars
MACD lines crossed positive, Histogram Bars are above Zero,
Stoch RSI Positive Up
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Friday, December 27, 2013
Gold and Silver Tottering Into the End of the Year / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013
By: Jesse
"Oh what a tangled web we weave,
When first we practise to deceive!" - Sir Walter Scott, Marmion
“The arrogance and brutality of empire are not repealed when they temporarily get deployed in a just cause.” - Michael Kazin
When governments intervene in markets, other than occasionally and transparently in currency and interest rate markets in pursuit of clear policy, I do not see how they can expect investors to maintain the confidence in their policies and actions.
Thursday, December 26, 2013
Gold Stocks Bear Market Cycle Bottom Forming Right Now! / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2013
By: David_Banister
Today we take a look at the Bullish Percent Index chart relative to Gold’s cycle and Gold Stocks.
Essentially it tells you what percentage of Gold sector stocks are at or above a moving average, which normally would be 50 days. When 70% or more are above a 50 day moving average, sectors can be peaking out. If you look at our chart at the bottom, we have labeled various incidents with A, B, C, and D.
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Thursday, December 26, 2013
Platinum - Our Favorite Precious-Metals Trade Going Into 2014 / Commodities / Platinum
By: DailyWealth
Brian Hunt writes: Among the most important financial decisions you'll ever make is the decision to buy precious metals like gold and silver.
At Stansberry & Associates, we have been urging investors to buy precious metals for more than 10 years. We own precious metals ourselves. We've even published books on the right ways to invest in them.
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