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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Commodities

Friday, June 27, 2008

Soft Commodities Bull Market: Grains / Commodities / Agricultural Commodities

By: Zeal_LLC

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe great commodities bull of the 21st century has elevated individual commodities and sectors of commodities in various phases over the last eight or so years. Those commodities that are finite (hard commodities) took the lead, with energy and metals breaking out to historic highs.

Growing global demand led by Asia 's industrialization has pinched the supplies of these scarce resources. And this has caused an economic imbalance that has birthed massive secular bull markets across the entire energy and metals complexes.

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Commodities

Friday, June 27, 2008

Fuel Subsidies In Mexico Stimulate Black Market Activity In The US / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Joseph_Brusuelas

Along the frontier between Southern California and Baja California it has always been a tradition for consumers to engage in a bit of arbitrage due to the temporary differences in prices for basic goods. Normally, this has been confined to non-durables and foodstuffs. But, beyond Mexican “cerveza” and other spirits, the changing price of oil has jump-started black market activity north of the border.

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Commodities

Friday, June 27, 2008

Gold Jumps on Crude Oil Breakout Above $140 / Commodities / Gold & Silver

By: Adrian_Ash

SPOT GOLD PRICES jumped higher again in early London trade on Friday, breaking new one-month highs above $926 per ounce as crude oil reached all-time highs near $142 per barrel.

Asian stock markets closed the week almost 3% down while the US Dollar fell to a three-week low vs. the Euro.

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Commodities

Friday, June 27, 2008

Gold has Largest One Day Gaim Since 1985 on Global Inflation Shock / Commodities / Gold & Silver

By: Mark_OByrne

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleGold surged to $912.30 in New York  yesterday and was up $32.70 and silver closed at $17.12, up 64 cents.

Gold surged in what was the largest one day move since 1985 as the dollar weakened, oil prices surged to new record highs and stock markets fell sharply. While gold was up some 3%, most U.S. stock indices were down some 3% and this continued in Asia and early European trading with gold rising to over $920. Although European indices have recovered somewhat as the morning has progressed, gold has continued to remain firm and safe haven demand has reemerged on decreasing risk appetite.

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Commodities

Thursday, June 26, 2008

Peak Oil Truths and Consequences / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Money_and_Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleSean Brodrick writes: I hear that along with Peak Oil, the world is now hitting Peak Fertilizer. Well, there's enough BS being spread about the oil crisis that it could solve our fertilizer problem in a jiffy.

Much of it is — no surprise — coming from Washington. Another load of bull is coming from our so-called "friends" in the Middle East. Even corporate America, where you might expect common sense to hold some sway, is busy shoveling misinformation. As a result, many investors are left neck-deep, choking, and grasping for a lifeline.

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Commodities

Thursday, June 26, 2008

Crude Oil Retesting All-Time Highs / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Mike_Paulenoff

The June triangle consolidation period in the U.S. Oil Fund ETF (AMEX: USO) likely ended yesterday, and has turned up with a vengeance and has propelled the USO towards a retest of the June (all-time) high at 113.00. The pattern itself represents a high-level bullish consolidation pattern that should resolve itself in a thrust into new high territory that projects into the 115.50 to 117.20 target zone. Only a decline that breaks yesterday's low at 106.83 will wreck the still bullish pattern.

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Commodities

Thursday, June 26, 2008

Gold Jumps on Central Banks Failure to Act Against Inflation / Commodities / Gold & Silver

By: Adrian_Ash

THE SPOT PRICE OF GOLD jumped ahead of the Wall Street opening on Thursday after the Federal Reserve left US interest rates some 2.0% below the rate of inflation.

Breaking $908 per ounce, Gold rose above last week's closing level as crude oil bounced and the US Dollar fell hard on the currency markets.

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Commodities

Wednesday, June 25, 2008

Agricultural Commodity ETF Tests Resistance / Commodities / Agricultural Commodities

By: Mike_Paulenoff

Not much of anything going on in the equity or bond markets since the FOMC announcement, however, in general, the equity market appears bid, while the bond market appears offered for the time being. Perhaps the most important reaction to the FOMC statement has been the climb in euro/$ from 1.5540 to 1.5640, which has popped the grains (wheat, corn, beans)... which in turn has popped the DBA (DB Agricultural Commodity, ETF) to test near term resistance at 41.00. If hurdled, let's expect the DBA to surge to retest the June high at 41.42. See our chart.

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Commodities

Wednesday, June 25, 2008

Gold Lower Ahead of US Fed Interest Rate Indecision on Dollar and Inflation / Commodities / Gold & Silver

By: Adrian_Ash

THE SPOT PRICE OF GOLD ticked lower in London on Wednesday, dropping $4 per ounce from last night's close as currency, bond and stock market traders awaited today's decision and statement on US interest rates from the Federal Reserve.

"The Dollar managed to stabilize [overnight] in after-market trading," notes Manqoba Madinane at Standard Bank in Johannesburg , "possibly indicating that investors anticipate hawkish comments from the Fed on inflation today."

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Commodities

Wednesday, June 25, 2008

Alternative Energy ETFs / Commodities / Renewable Energy

By: Richard_Shaw

As you consider alternative energy (solar and wind, in particular) keep their relative size in mind. Solar is currently 1% of 7% of US energy sources. Wind is currently 5% of 7% of energy sources.

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Commodities

Tuesday, June 24, 2008

Agri-Food Bull Markets Driven by Fundamentals / Commodities / Agricultural Commodities

By: Ned_W_Schmidt

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe term “bubble” is thrown around a lot. It is especially used by analysts that do not understand why the price of something is rising. If an analyst failed to forecast the rising price, it must be a bubble. Maybe yes, maybe no. Bubbles have three characteristics. Importantly, bubbles are built on (1)a widely accepted consensus forecast of (2)rising price (3)financed by debt. Such would aptly describe the global housing bubble which has burst. It would also be an apt description of developments in the paper oil market. Only in part does it explain the price developments in Agri-Food.

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Commodities

Tuesday, June 24, 2008

Gold Rallies on Negative Real Interest Rates / Commodities / Gold & Silver

By: Adrian_Ash


SPOT GOLD PRICES
ticked higher in Asian and early London trade on Tuesday, recovering one-third of Monday's 2.7% drop as crude oil pushed higher and European stock markets sank.

The Dollar held flat ahead of tomorrow's Federal Reserve vote on interest rates. It's widely expected to leave the real returns paid to cash 2% below zero.

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Commodities

Tuesday, June 24, 2008

Energy Use Per Unit of GDP by Country / Commodities / Energy Resources

By: Richard_Shaw

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleCountries that require less energy per unit of GDP may fare better during a period of high energy prices.

This table shows the Kg of oil equivalent consumed per unit of GDP on a purchasing power parity basis for 32 countries, as reported by the United Nations.

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Commodities

Monday, June 23, 2008

Gold's Corrective Upleg is Complete / Commodities / Gold & Silver

By: Mike_Paulenoff

Although the weakness in the SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD) has not inflicted much if any meaningful technical damage to the overall pattern off of the 5/1 low of 83.57, today's big gap down certainly argues that the current upleg off of the 6/12 low at 84.83 into Friday's high at 89.61 is complete! In addition, my expectation of an approaching significant low closer to the timeframe of the bottoming of the 15-18 week cycle low between July 7 and 14 suggests that today's weakness is the start of the road towards such a low, which figures to be VERY important indeed. Let's expect the GLD to press towards a test of the rising 200 DMA in the 85-84 target zone in the upcoming hours/days -- and possibly decline into the 82.90/50 area prior to a powerful upside reversal.

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Commodities

Monday, June 23, 2008

China Raises Fuel Prices: Is this the End of the Oil boom? / Commodities / Energy Resources

By: Money_and_Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleLast Thursday, China roiled the oil market, announcing it would raise gas and diesel prices by about 46 cents per gallon in order to reduce demand. In a matter of minutes, oil prices skidded lower.

Before you knew it, America's TV news and finance channels were all over the story. They asked the burning question, "Will higher prices and lower demand in China kill this great bull market in oil?" And they presented a seemingly endless parade of oil bears and stock bulls who almost unanimously proclaimed that oil prices were about to crater.

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Commodities

Monday, June 23, 2008

Gold Remains Firm on Stagflation Fundamentals / Commodities / Gold & Silver

By: Mark_OByrne

Gold closed at $901.70 in New York on Friday and was down 40 cents and silver closed at $17.33, up 1 cent. Gold was up over 4% last week and the close above $900 may prove important from a technical point of view in the coming weeks.

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Commodities

Monday, June 23, 2008

Gold Holds Ahead of US Interest Rate Decision / Commodities / Gold & Silver

By: Adrian_Ash

SPOT GOLD PRICES gave back an early 0.6% rally in London on Monday, trading just shy of last week's close at $902 per ounce as crude oil bounced and European equities held flat.

The world's biggest investment banks, meantime, issued a series of notes accusing each other of ever greater write-downs for the April-June quarter.

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Commodities

Monday, June 23, 2008

Another Gold Attack, then North to $2,000! / Commodities / Gold & Silver

By: Alex_Wallenwein

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleOrdinarily, gold would be right before a major breakout point at this time, which should occur this week or the following week at the latest – but Wall Street and the entire US financial structure are so near a complete breakdown that another attack on gold must be expected. Here are the reasons why:

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Commodities

Sunday, June 22, 2008

Silver Fan and Pennant Corrective Pattern Resolving Towards Breakout / Commodities / Gold & Silver

By: Clive_Maund

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe arguments relating to gold apply in large part to silver, so here we will only detail the important differences and readers are referred to the parallel Gold Market update.

Like gold, silver has been marking out a 3-arc Fan Correction following its March peak, and the chief difference between the two is that silver looks even stronger. On the 1-year chart we can see that silver has marked out a more solid looking base line of support between about $16.20 and $16.50 above its rising 200-day moving average and we can also see that it is closer to breaking out above the 3rd fanline of the fan pattern.

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Commodities

Sunday, June 22, 2008

Gold on the Cusp of a Major Breakout / Commodities / Gold & Silver

By: Clive_Maund

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAlthough gold has remained in the doldrums since the last update, there is plenty of evidence that another strong uptrend is solely a question of when, not if. On the 1-year chart we can see that the reactive phase in force from mid-March is taking the form of 3-arc Fan Correction that is now believed to be quite close to completion. These fan patterns typically start out with a steep, panicky selloff as intermediate traders realize that the game of over for the time being and hit the exits. This is normally followed by a significant bounce and then by a more measured decline that frequently wreaks the most damage because it drags on for alot longer, although that was not the case here. Then, after another bounce renewed decline sets in, but this time there is little selling pressure behind it, and this downleg frequently terminates only a little below the 2nd drop and sometimes at or above it, which is a sign of strength.

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