Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Monday, April 23, 2007
COT Warning of possible near-term top in Gold and Breakdown in Resource Stocks / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Clive_Maund
Resource Stock investors have become increasingly excited as gold, silver and oil have advanced over the past 7 weeks or so, with the usual cheerleaders advancing plausible reasons why gold and silver will soon break out to new highs. However, as we will shortly see, big money is positioning itself to fleece the little guy yet again, with the same old music playing over, as it has done countless times in the past.
On shorter-term charts all seems to be OK - gold and silver were wildly overbought after their strong run in late 2005 and early last year, and were entitled to take a lengthy breather to let the extremely overbought condition unwind, and as they now approach the highs of last year they are nowhere near as overbought, and thus on the face of it, they appear to be ready to break to new highs at last.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, April 22, 2007
Gold, Metals and US Dollar Analysis : Sailing the Seas of Liquidity / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Dominick
Oroborean writes “A corrective dollar rally, as short-lived as it might be, could become a hurdle for metals going forward … When support finally kicks in, as it may have on Friday, there could be some correction and consolidation in metals. ”
~ Precious Points: Got Discipline? , April 14, 2007
Everywhere you turn, economists and commentators are talking up the benefit of the weak dollar – how it's good for exports, how it will boost the profit margins of multinational corporations. What you don't hear quite as much of is how it makes your cash savings worse less and less and how your wealth would be more than keeping pace with inflation if it was stored in metals.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, April 22, 2007
Weekly Gold and Silver Technical Analysis Report - Potential Double Top / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Merv_Burak
Lots of speculation about the next great gold boom – or not ? My Composite Index of Precious Metals Indices shows a serious double top. Let's hope it's just a short term aberration.
COMPOSITE INDEX of PRECIOUS METALS INDICES
At the end of most of these commentaries you will find a table of Precious Metals Indices. The table includes the major North American precious metals Indices, the various FTSE Gold Mines Indices, the seven Merv's Indices as well as gold, silver and the US$. Subscribers to my weekly precious metals service get the full expanded table along with a weekly Composite Index chart that shows the average weekly performance of all of these Indices. This week the chart may be giving a very serious warning so I thought I'd show it to all my commentary readers.
Saturday, April 21, 2007
Gold Forecast - The Short-Term Prospects for Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Julian_DW_Phillips
Brown Again ? 
Two of the chief qualifications for a Minister of the Crown in the U.K. are a complete disregard for the opinions of others and absolutely no regard for the consequences of his actions. Mr. Brown is superbly qualified to be Prime Minister in this regard.
Despite the overwhelming evidence of the foolishness of the sale of half Britain 's gold in a manner to guarantee a low price, Mr. Brown unashamedly continues to press for the sale of other people's gold.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, April 20, 2007
Crude Oil and the US Dollar Under the Microscope / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Clif_Droke
Oil and gas stocks had a great run to the upside following the correction low in earlier March. The Amex Oil Index (XOI) rallied nearly 180 points from its March low of 1,100 to its most recent high of 1,280. The Amex Natural Gas Index (XNG) was likewise bullish from March through late April and rallied from its correction trough of 440 to its latest high of 500.
How much energy is left in the oil/gas stock sector after this extraordinary rally? To answer that question we turn to the internal momentum indicator series known as OILMO.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, April 20, 2007
Bring on the Empty Silver ETFs? / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Roland_Watson
This week has been a busy week for silver as announcements of two silver ETFs were made to the media. When I read the words "silver" and "ETF" I was part hoping it was finally the silver stocks ETF I mentioned in the latest issue of my newsletter. However, it was not to be as the third silver ETF was announced by the Zurich Cantonal Bank along with their platinum and palladium ETFs. It will start trading on the 10th May.
I asked for the prospectus and got some documents in German. I ran it through Google translator and got some extra items of information.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, April 20, 2007
Gold: More than Just a TIP, Gold is Money and Store of Wealth / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Michael_Pento
It is still common for market commentators to denigrate gold as a relic of little value. They claim that since it offers no dividend its only appropriate use is for jewelry--never calling to mind the hubris it takes to ignore 5,000 years of civilization that viewed gold as money.
Most market strategists still don't realize that gold is money and its value is as a store of wealth and it holds its value against fiat currencies better than any Treasury asset, including TIPS. So, I thought it may be enlightening to compare the returns of gold versus Treasury Inflation Protected Securities and determine which offers a better hedge against inflation.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, April 20, 2007
Elliott Wave Analysis of Gold - A Word of Caution for Gold Bulls / Commodities / Elliott Wave Theory
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Gold in recent days has flirted with resistance above $690, currently having retraced from the initial attempts at a breakout higher.
From time to time, so as not to get suckered into a wrong analysis or wave count of a market based on relying too much on ongoing 'updated' analysis. I like to take a fresh chart of a market, in this case of Gold, and see what actually stands out clearly at this point in time, a Fresh view so to speak.
What is the 'Fresh' current chart of Gold telling us, especially in terms elliott wave analysis ?
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, April 19, 2007
Risk to the Petro Dollar from Iraq War and Iranian Crude Oil Echange / Commodities / US Dollar
By: Jim_Willie_CB
The focus on gold and the USDollar alone lacks a crucial factor in maintaining the world currency reserve on its fragile pedestal. The PetroDollar is a term used to describe the close relationship between the USDollar and the crude oil export business dominated by Saudi Arabia , manifested in the superstructure of the global banking system. So one could say the oil world provides the pool from which the US $ exchange rate valuation is applied and enforced.
The gold community pays far too little attention to crude oil factors in my opinion, but Adam Hamilton does indeed. Gold investors love to point to Iran war tensions as a factor to lift the gold price, but they might overlook how the associated earthquakes in banking shift the very ground under the world currency reserve.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, April 19, 2007
Silver Update - Under-performs Gold as yet to reach Resistance of $15 / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Clive_Maund
The silver chart looks considerably less inspiring than the gold chart at this juncture, which is perhaps not so surprising as after outperforming gold last year, it has been under performing it so far this year.
On the 10-year chart the trading range that has followed the ramp from September 2005 through April last year does not look to be of sufficient duration to support another strong advance, and the uptrend channel drawn on this chart looks unsustainably steep and for these reasons the chances of a breakdown are considered to be quite high.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, April 18, 2007
Gold Rallies back to Resistance at $700, Though COT Signals Potential Warnings / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Clive_Maund
The gradual uptrend of the past 6 weeks has brought gold once again to a critical juncture. This rise has brought it up to the late February high and within $40 of last year's highs at about $730, raising hopes that it may soon break out to a new high.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, April 18, 2007
The Energy Sector Breaks Out! / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Donald_W_Dony
The recent upward move in the energy indexes signals higher prices can be expected in 2007 and oil will remain firm at current levels. It also shows inflation is still growing and global economies are continuing to expand.
After 10 months of consolidation below the key 1235 resistance level, the Amex Oil Index (Chart 1) has broken out above this important price ceiling. This indicates the main upward trend in the oil sector is now continuing. And as the Amex Oil Index often leads the commodity, it also implies oil prices will remain firm at current levels as the summer driving season draws near.
Technical evidence shows growing upward pressure should continue until the first half of June.
Wednesday, April 18, 2007
A Uranium Feeding Frenzy! Uranium Futures Market on its Way! / Commodities / Uranium
By: Money_and_Markets
Sean Broderick writes: You think the fact that uranium prices have more than doubled in the past 12 months is something? Just wait! I hope you have your safety belt on, because this could be the ride of your life. Here's why …
There's a feeding frenzy going on in Australian uranium stocks right now. For example, two of the best uranium companies in the world, Areva and Paladin Resources, fiercely bid against each other for another company (and its resources).
Larger miners are generally very conservative. So the fact that these two companies are throwing so much money around, tells me that uranium — which recently hit $113 per pound — has a long, LO-O-O-NG way to go.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, April 18, 2007
Gold Thoughts - Gold Outperforms US Stocks by more than 300% / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Ned_W_Schmidt
Much talk about this index or that index making a new high, or near a new high. The level for an index is interesting, but the return being earned is more important. A stock market index could conceivably make a new high each and every day without providing a desirable return. Today's graph compares the return over the past five years of an investment in $Gold and U.S. stocks, as measured by the total return on the S&P 500.
As is readily apparent from that graph, $Gold has substantially outperformed an investment in U.S. equities. Why these results? Gold's price is a mirror reflection of the global purchasing power of the U.S. dollar. As the Federal Reserve has grossly mismanaged U.S. monetary policy over the years, the global forex market has pushed down the value of the dollar. That depreciation of the dollar's value is not reflected in the equity market.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, April 16, 2007
Gold Mega Trend - KEEP FOCUSED / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Aden_Forecast
Gold is on the rise. Investors are excited, especially after last month's volatility, which proved to be nerve wracking for many gold investors. This alone reinforces why it's important to focus on the major trend.
Chart 1 shows gold's mega uptrend and as you can see, the volatility over the past year doesn't look like much. On the contrary, this chart illustrates gold's strength as it sits near the high side of the rise that started in 2001. This is the most important picture to keep in mind when investing in gold. The bull market since 2001 is clearly underway.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, April 16, 2007
Elliott Wave Analysis and Forecast - Gold Boom and US Dollar Bust / Commodities / Elliott Wave Theory
By: Joseph_Russo
Introduction
After a short tirade inspired by the financial alchemy surrounding the world's reserve currency, we will quickly shift our focus to more stable realities.
Through a briefing of price charts, we will speculate on just how far the dollar can fall, and to what heights Gold may climb. In addition, Elliott Wave Technology will share with readers precisely how we have kept our trading clientele on the right side of a rather challenging Gold market from the print high of 730.40 in May 2006, through the violent, and choppy, year-long consolidation experienced since.
Gold Boom / Dollar Bust
As the U.S dollar threatens a two-year double-bottom re-test of its 2004 low, it serves as a timely reminder that the dollar remains firmly entrenched in a century long secular bear market. Some 15-years ago in 1992, the dollar hit it lowest levels striking prints south of 78.50. Last week, it slipped back below 82.00 breaching lows most recently recorded last year in December of 2006.
Monday, April 16, 2007
Trading Thoughts - Gold and Sillver Bullish, Equities at risk on Yen Carry Trade unwinding / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Ned_W_Schmidt
Last weekend we noted that the U.S. dollar had closed out that previous week at a new low, based on the Median U.S. Dollar Index. That weakness suggested that more weakness for the dollar would develop. Such was what happened this week as the dollar was sold against almost all other national monies. The latest valuations have the U.S. dollar closing at another new low on Friday. That condition makes the U.S. dollar over sold in the short-term, but continuing in a major bear market.
The strategic view that precious metals will do well is being confirmed.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, April 15, 2007
Silver Analysis - Trending higher towards Resistance / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Roland_Watson
Here are the latest numbers on silver as of this weekend with changes on the week in parentheses (acronyms are explained at bottom):London Silver Fix Price: $13.88 (+$0.30 on week)
NYMEX Spot Price: $14.01 (+$0.33)
RSI: 64.88 (+5.76) ( 70 overbought/30 oversold - short term top-bottom indicator )
RMAR: 1.02 (+0.01) ( 1.30 overbought - monthly to yearly top indicator )
NYMEX SLI: 1.51 (-0.01) (1.80 overbought - multi-year top indicator )
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, April 15, 2007
Weekly Gold and Silver Technical Analysis Report - Technically Precious with Merv / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Merv_Burak
A couple of ups and downs during the week but mostly ups. Are we heading for new highs ahead?
GOLD : LONG TERM
Sunday, April 15, 2007
Gold, Metals and US Dollar Analysis : Got Discipline? / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Dominick
Joe Nicholson writes “Whether the Federal Reserve tightens incrementally to look tough on inflation for which it is almost entirely responsible, or whether it makes a small cut to support a busted housing market for which it is entirely responsible, precious metals are poised to be the long term beneficiaries of either policy choice.”
~ Precious Points: All I Really Need to Know About the Economy I Learned in Kindergarten , April 01, 2007
The last few updates essentially took the position that the short term fundamental outlook was muddled, but that, nonetheless, precious metals stood to benefit in any likely event. Despite the ebb and flow of rate cute expectations, gold and silver (and platinum, too!) indeed extended their rallies over the past two weeks on steady declines in the dollar and persistent inflation data. An 11.9% increase in M2 over the last six weeks probably hasn't hurt either.
Read full article... Read full article...