Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Tuesday, October 15, 2019

Market Action Suggests Downside in Precious Metals / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

At present, there could be a number of positive developments for precious metals.

Last Friday, the US Dollar cracked lower and could be at risk of lower levels into year end.

Days earlier the Federal Reserve announced new “QE-like” measures just as they told us it was not really QE. 

In addition, the market is showing a nearly 68% chance of a rate cut later this month. 

Monday, October 14, 2019

Gold Perspective is Everything / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Rambus_Chartology

Perspective is everything when it comes to the markets. It is always most important to look at the long term charts first and then work your way back to the shorter timeframes. Long term charts also show where major support and resistance resides that can have a calming affect on ones emotions when the inevitable corrections take place.

Its been several months or so since we last looked at this 30 year quarterly chart for Gold that gives us very clear roadmap of how the price action may play out over the intermediate to longer term. Looking at the massive double bottom which launched Gold’s 2000’s bull market you can see there were three quarters of price action that took place on the breakout above the double bottom trendline with the final backtest occurring during the 3rd quarter of the breakout.

Monday, October 14, 2019

Gold, Silver Bonds - Inflation in the Offing? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Gary_Tanashian

Let’s take a look at some indicators that can come together to let us know when the next inflationary bout is in the offing.

The spread between 10yr and 2yr yields (the most commonly watched yield spread/curve) is still steepening on the short-term. Live chart available here.

Monday, October 14, 2019

Consider Precious Metals for Insurance First, Profit Second... / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: MoneyMetals

Welcome to this week’s Market Wrap Podcast, I’m Mike Gleason.

Coming up MoneyMetals.com columnist and Senior Analyst at The Morgan Report David Smith joins me for another wonderful conversation on why he thinks the recent correction in metals is creating what may be the last great buying opportunity in the sector, and also why he believes those who do buy should be thinking insurance first and profit second. So be sure to stick around for my conversation with David Smith, coming up after this week’s market update.

As the Federal Reserve prepares more stimulus injections into the financial system, investors continue to flip back and forth from favoring safe haven assets one week to growth stories another. This week markets swung back toward growth, perhaps in hopes of progress on U.S.-China trade talks.

Global equity markets got a bounce mid-week. Industrial commodities including copper and platinum group metals also made gains. Bonds, meanwhile, sold off, and gold and silver struggled to hold significant near-term technical levels.

Sunday, October 13, 2019

Fed Grows Concerned - Should Gold Investors Do the Same? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The Fed released the minutes from its last meeting yesterday. What can we learn from the new light they shine on the U.S. monetary policy? How will it affect the gold market?

Minutes Show That FOMC Members Are More Worried Now

The minutes from the Sep FOMC meeting show that the Fed is more worried about the economy. The Committee members noted that downside risks had become more pronounced due to the increased trade conflicts, more intensified geopolitical uncertainty, and more fragile prospects for global and domestic economic growth:

Saturday, October 12, 2019

Gold Gifts Traders With Another Rotation Below $1500 / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Positive expectations related to the US/China trades negotiations on October 10th prompted a moderately strong upside move in the US major indexes and the stock market. 

Additionally, the precious metals fell in correlation to the upside move in the US stock market and presented another opportunity for skilled technical traders to look for entries below $1500 in Gold and below $17.75 in Silver. 

We can’t stress the importance of this critical $1500 price level in Gold as a key level for all traders to watch.  It has continued to provide key support for Gold since the price rally that initiated in late April 2019.  We believe this level will act as a relatively strong price “floor” going forward and any price activity below $1500 could represent a very opportunistic entry area for skilled traders.

Friday, October 11, 2019

The Allure of Upswings in Silver Mining Stocks / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019

By: P_Radomski_CFA

The entire precious metals sector rallied yesterday, but the upswing was particularly visible in case of silver and (especially) mining stocks. Both: silver, and miners moved to new October highs. Silver’s breakout was tiny, but miners rallied relatively significantly and that’s the part of the current long trade that’s particularly profitable. Of course, these profits are near to nothing compared to what’s likely ahead in case of the big short trade that we plan to profit on in the following months, but they add their part to the overall results. Please note that a small long position here also means staying temporarily out of the short position, which brings the likelihood of re-entering them at higher prices.

Let’s take a closer look at what happened.

Thursday, October 10, 2019

3 Tips for Picking Junior Gold Stocks / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

As the correction in gold stocks continues and as it’s likely to endure for the time being, we take a step back and share some tips for selecting individual junior gold companies.

The current correction may provide the last chance to buy before the bull market in Gold is confirmed and capital pours into the junior sector and pushes up prices.

Here are three of our best tips to help you spot the big winners before the crowd.

Thursday, October 10, 2019

Employment Data, Rate Cut Speculations and Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

If you look at the manufacturing data only, the relative strength of the jobs figures surprised. Another positive development were the upward revisions for August and July. The unemployment rate again dropped, this time to 3.5 percent. What will that mean for the Fed and gold?

September Payrolls Slow Down, but Unemployment Rate Drops Anyway

The U.S. created only 136,000 jobs in September, following an increase of 168,000 in August (after an upward revision). The nonfarm payrolls were short of the analysts’ forecast of 150,000. The gains were widespread, spearheaded by education and health services (+40,000) and professional and business services (+34,000). Manufacturing, which is in recession, and retail trade, which faces overcapacity, cut jobs.

Thursday, October 10, 2019

What Makes this Gold Market Rally Different From All Others / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Michael_J_Kosares

1.  It is led by institutions and funds, not private investors. Global quantitative easing created a huge and mobile pool of capital in constant need of a place to call home. As the need for a safe haven became apparent among the stewards of that capital, the demand for gold flourished. The consistent presence of funds and institutions as buyers in this rally, as represented by the growth in ETF stockpiles, is one of its hallmarks and represents one of the major differences between this gold rally and rallies of the past. Though private investors have been late to the game, the rapid development of the physical market for gold coins and bullion in the United Kingdom is testament to the fact that sentiment can change quickly.

Wednesday, October 09, 2019

Is Bill Gates Right On Energy Investing? / Commodities / Energy Resources

By: OilPrice_Com

Not long ago, Bill Gates offered some investment advice. That, in itself, constitutes news, but the content and the reactions make up a more interesting story.

Gates told the Financial Times, in essence, that investors who want to do something about climate change should stop making up lists of companies they do not want in their portfolios based on involvement in fossil fuel production or use. They should, instead, invest in disruptive technologies that will provide actual solutions to climate change.

Wednesday, October 09, 2019

USO United States Oil Fund Longer Term Cycles & Elliott Wave / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: ElliottWaveForecast

Firstly the USO instrument inception date was 4/10/2006. CL_F Crude Oil put in an all time high at 147.27 in July 2008. USO put in an all time high at 119.17 in July 2008 noted on the monthly chart. The decline from there into the February 2009 lows was in three swings. An a-b-c in red although it was a very steep pullback.

The bounce from the 2009 lows is a complex double three combination with a triangle “y”. This is w-x-y in red to end the blue wave (x). In either a bullish or bearish market this particular structure always makes a high or low in the initial wave “w”. Structures like this will be followed by a contracting or running triangle. In this case the structure ended in June 2014. The decline from those highs were very sharp again. However, this was in three swings again a-b-c in red to end the blue wave (y). This completed a three swing correction  (w)-(x)-(y) in blue from the July 2008 highs. That is labeled ((b)) in black at the February 2016 lows.

Wednesday, October 09, 2019

Gold in the Negative Real Interest Rates Environment / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Many believe that negative interest rates will never arrive to the United States. This can’t possibly happen here. The discussions of their theoretical benefits almost remind you of the not-in-my-backyard mentality. But this is not true – they are already present in America. Hard to believe it? Hiding in plain sight, let’s take it a step further and look at gold in the negative real interest rates environment.

Many people believe that negative interest rates are the ailment of Europe and Japan, and that they will never materialize in the United States. But this is not true. They are already present in America. Can’t believe it? Please take a look at the chart below.

Tuesday, October 08, 2019

Is There Life Left In Cannabis / Commodities / Cannabis

By: Joshua_Rodriguez

Tuesday, October 08, 2019

Gold It’s All About Real Interest Rates Not the US Dollar / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Michael_Pento

The Federal Reserve’s recent need to supply $100’s of billions in new credit for the overnight repo market underscores the condition of dollar scarcity in the global financial system. This dearth of dollars and its concomitant strength has left most market watchers baffled.

Since 2008, the Fed has printed $3.8 trillion (with a “T”) of new dollars in an effort to weaken the currency and boost asset prices--one would then think the world should now be awash in dollar liquidity. Yet, surprisingly, there is still an insatiable demand for the greenback, leading many to wonder what is causing its strength.  And importantly for precious metals investors, there is a need to understand why this dreaded dollar strength has not served to undermine the bull market for gold.

Monday, October 07, 2019

Silver Is Cheap – And Getting Cheaper / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Kelsey_Williams

Silver is definitely cheap. By almost any standard of measurement, the price of silver is cheap. It is cheap relative to gold, it is cheap compared to its recent peak in 2011, and it is cheap historically. For some, that apparently means that silver is a bargain, too. I’m not so sure.

Those who tell us silver is cheap relative to gold say that silver’s price is likely to rise higher, relative to gold, going forward.

But a currently higher gold-to-silver ratio could also drop, favoring silver relative to gold, even if prices for both declined from here, rather than moving higher. In that case, silver’s price would not drop as much relative to gold.

Monday, October 07, 2019

Four Fundamental Reasons to Buy Gold and Silver / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Avi_Gilburt

By Andy Hecht : Starting and June and through the beginning of September, gold and silver prices were back in bullish mode. Gold rose to its highest price since 2013 and silver to its peak since 2016. The nearby gold futures contract traded up to a high at just under $1560 per ounce. Silver peaked at just under $19.54.

Markets rarely move in a straight line, and corrections can be healthy for bull markets. A price retracement cleans out stale long positions and creates an environment that brings in new buyers. Some market analysts and traders believe that the two precious metals will experience a deeper correction, and lower prices are on the horizon. I believe that any price weakness in the gold and silver markets will turn out to be a buying opportunity. I remain bullish on the two metals that are the world’s oldest forms of currency. Gold and silver are means of exchange that have been around a lot longer than any of the legal tender in circulation around the world today.

Monday, October 07, 2019

Gold and Silver Taking a Breather / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Richard_Mills

This year at AOTH we have tackled a number of reasons for gold and silver’s rise, aiming to explain “in layman’s terms” what is behind the seemingly relentless move upward - despite the trend-busting reality of a high US dollar. We’ll get to that further down this article, but for now, we are summarizing all that we know about why now might be, in our opinion, an excellent time to be beefing up our gold/ silver bullion hoard, and doubling down on promising juniors exploring for precious metals. 

Gold 

Impeachment safe haven

Washington, DC is once again in turmoil. The talking news heads are all a-twitter over a whistleblower’s statement that President Donald J. Trump had a conversation with the president of Ukraine, about former vice-president Joe Biden, who is seeking the Democratic nomination to run against Trump in 2020. 

Sunday, October 06, 2019

Natural Gas Reloads For Another Price Rally / Commodities / Natural Gas

By: Chris_Vermeulen

As a technical trader, one has to really learn to appreciate when a trade “reloads” for another move higher.  Much like the Gold base/bottom in April 2019 below $1300 that we called back in October 2018.  When a trend confirms and we can see the potential for upside profits, but price performs a “deep pullback” withing that initial trend setup – it is almost like we're dreaming.

After the downside rotation in Gold setup in April 2019, the next move higher pushed Gold prices up to $1550 from levels near $1275 – what a great move that was.  Now, imagine Natural Gas may give us another chance to get long below $2.30 with an upside target near $3.00 before mid-November?  Incredible – right?

Sunday, October 06, 2019

Craig Hemke: Ignore the Elliott Wave “Buffoons” Calling for a Gold Crash / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: MoneyMetals

Mike Gleason: It is my privilege now to welcome back Craig Hemke of the TF Metals Report. Craig is a well-known name in the metals industry and runs one of the most highly respected websites in our space and provides some of the very best analysis on banking schemes, the flaws of Keynesian economics, and evidence of manipulation in the gold and silver markets that you will find anywhere.

Craig, welcome back, and thanks for joining us again. How are you today?

Craig Hemke: Mike, my friend, it's always a pleasure. Thanks for the invite.

Mike Gleason: Absolutely. Love to get you back on and thanks for the time. Well, the recent smash in the metals prices was reminiscent to what we saw in the markets in 2016, at least in silver. Prices ran higher up to about $20 an ounce and then got hammered back down where they continued trading in a range between about $14 and $17 until this year's breakout. Do you think we'll see the metals once again be put back into their box here or do you think it will be different this time around? I guess that's the million-dollar question for silver bugs, what do you think?