Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Tuesday, November 14, 2017

Gold on the Ledge, Trend Forecast / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Bob_Loukas

This is my favorite time within any Cycle.  Mostly because it’s one of three points within an Investor Cycle where the probability of getting it right is as favorable as it will ever be.  If played correctly, it’s also the type of setup where your portfolio can be given a significant boost.  In this case, I am of course talking about the final Daily Cycle top, where the move down into the Daily and Investor Cycle Lows is often the most powerful and convincing of events.

Tuesday, November 14, 2017

Silver Sign’s Confirmation & More / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Briefly: In our opinion, full (150% of the regular full position) speculative short positions in gold, silver and mining stocks are justified from the risk/reward perspective at the moment of publishing this alert.

In our previous free analysis we discussed the silver market viewed from the non-USD perspective and we commented on the possibility of seeing a more visible corrective downswing in the USD after it moved closer to the 96 level. In today’s essay, we would like to further elaborate on the white metal – not only because we saw another sign in the non-USD silver price, but also because we would like to reveal a technique that can tell us when the next reversal in silver is likely to take place.

Monday, November 13, 2017

The One Chart All Investors Should See Before 2018 / Commodities / Cobalt

By: OilPrice_Com

Pay close attention to this cobalt chart. Demand could be about to surge from 2k tonnes today... to over 300k tonnes in 2030.  That’s a 14,900% increase in demand.

Saturday, November 11, 2017

Gold Investment Stalled / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: GoldCore

Gold has largely been drifting sideways for the better part of a couple months now, sapping enthusiasm.  Gold investment demand has stalled due to extreme stock-market euphoria.  Investors aren’t interested in alternative investments led by gold when stocks seemingly do nothing but rally indefinitely.  But once stock-market volatility inevitably returns, so will gold investment demand which fuels major gold uplegs.

Like nearly everything else in the global markets, gold prices are heavily dependent on investment capital flows.  When investors are buying gold in a meaningful way, demand exceeds supply which drives gold’s price higher.  When they’re materially selling, supply trumps demand thus gold’s price naturally retreats.  The past couple months have been stuck in the middle, with gold investment flows neutral on balance.

Friday, November 10, 2017

Gold Market 2017 Will We See a Replay of 2015 and 2016? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

In both 2015 and 2016, the price of gold bottomed in December, as one can see in the chart below.

Chart 1: Gold prices (London P.M. Fix) from January 2015 to October 2017.

Friday, November 10, 2017

Oil markets turn bullish with shift to backwardation / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: ElliottWave-Forecast

This week both Brent Crude and WTI (Light Sweet Crude Oil) made a new price high in more than 2 years with Brent Crude rising to $64 per barrel and WTI to $57 per barrel. These price gains come before the OPEC’s meeting later this month on Nov 30. In the past two years, OPEC has imposed production cuts in its member countries in order to remove excess inventory and halt the price drop. In their last meeting on May, the cartel agreed to extend 1.8 million barrel a day cuts into the first quarter of 2018.

Friday, November 10, 2017

The Strange Behavior of Gold Investors from Monday to Thursday / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks 2017

By: Dimitri_Speck

Dear Investor,

You are undoubtedly aware of one or another stock market anomaly, such as e.g. the frequent weakness in stock markets in the summer months, which the well-known saying “sell in May and go away” refers to. Apart from such widely known anomalies, there are many others though, which most investors have never heard of. These anomalies can be particularly interesting and profitable for investors – and there are several in the precious metals sector as well.  Today I am going to introduce one of those to you.

Friday, November 10, 2017

A “Silver” Lining In The Precious Metals Market / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Avi_Gilburt

When I look at the 3 charts that I follow in the metals complex, they seem to be telling a different story today, at least in their micro structures.

Silver seems to have broken out of its downtrend, and can be viewed as having completed wave i of its (c) wave to the target box above. GLD seems to be stuck in neutral, with the same “potential” structure as silver, but without as much clarity to its micro count as silver has potentially presented.

Thursday, November 09, 2017

Psychological Warfare in the Precious Metals Markets / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Rambus_Chartology

For almost a year now the PM stock indexes have been building out a triangle trading range that has yet to be determined if it is going to be a consolidation pattern or a reversal pattern. With big patterns one can lose sight of what is really there, as the longer a trading range develops the more trendlines one puts on a chart, and the more confusing things become.

Tonight I would like to show you, from a Chartology perspective, what the basic patterns are, from the short term to the longer term. The bigger a trading range the more chart patterns can develop before we see the final product. Sometimes it’s totally different from the early stages of the trading range. It’s important to clear ones mind of all the preconceived notions of what they think is happening to just what the charts are suggesting. It’s a hard thing for most investors to do because of all the things we read each and everyday which works on our subconscious. More than anything else we are playing a game of psychological warfare.

Thursday, November 09, 2017

Negative Divergence in the Gold Stocks / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2017

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

After a severe selloff, precious metals have enjoyed a bit of a respite. Corrections are a function of time and/or price. The correction to the recent selloff has been more in time than than price. Metals and miners have stabilized over the past nine trading days but have not rebounded much in price terms. Gold has barely rallied $20/oz while GDX and GDXJ have rebounded less than 4% and 5% respectively. In addition to the weakness of this rally, the gold stocks are sporting a negative divergence and that does not bode well for an end of the year rally.

Wednesday, November 08, 2017

How Much is Too Much: Oil’s Upside Price Target / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

Crude oil’s price continues to soar in a sharp manner, but no asset can move in a straight line without periodic corrections so even if crude oil’s price was about to rally tens of dollars (which doesn’t appear so likely to be seen this year, but that is a discussion for a different day), one should still expect it to form local tops along the way. Where will crude oil top and where can it provide us with a promising trading opportunity?

Wednesday, November 08, 2017

Gold Prices – Inflation vs. Deflation / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Kelsey_Williams

Inflation is the debasement of money by government. The expansion of the supply of money and its subsequent loss in value results in an increase in the general level of prices for goods and services.

Deflation is characterized by a contraction in the supply of money and a decrease in the general price level of goods and services. (What we are currently experiencing is called ‘disinflation’ which is a lower rate of inflation.)

Tuesday, November 07, 2017

How to Protect All of Your Assets (Including Gold) from Government Seizure / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: HAA

Olivier Garret : On April 5, 1933, President Franklin D. Roosevelt issued an executive order making private ownership of gold illegal. The order forced Americans to sell their bullion to the Treasury at the then legal price of $20.32. 

Gold ownership remained illegal in the US until 1974. 

Failure to tender your gold could get you a maximum fine of $10,000 (492 ounces of gold or approximately $625,000 at today’s prices) and up to 10 years’ imprisonment. 

Tuesday, November 07, 2017

World’s Largest Gold Producer Sees Production Fall 10% / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: GoldCore

– Gold mining production in China fell by 9.8% in H1 2017 
– Decreasing mine supply in world’s largest gold producer and across the globe
– GFMS World Gold Survey predicts mine production to contract year-on-year
– Peak gold production being seen in Australia, world’s no 2 producer
– Peak gold production globally while global gold demand remains robust

Tuesday, November 07, 2017

Electronic Gold: The Deep State’s Corrupt Threat to Human Prosperity and Freedom / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Stewart_Dougherty

“There are crooks everywhere you look now. The situation is desperate.” Final blog entry by Daphne Caruana Galizia, 53, renowned Maltese investigative reporter who specialized in exposing state corruption; posted on 16 October 2017, one day before she and her vehicle were blown to bits by a car bomb in Bidnija, Malta

In 2011, gold pulled a “Bitcoin” before anyone even knew what Bitcoin was: its price went vertical to $1,900 per ounce. Inflation-adjusted, the price was still far below its 1980 all-time high, and from all indications, it was going to keep heading north toward its free market print.

Tuesday, November 07, 2017

Silver’s Sign and USD’s Upcoming Reversal / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Most of technical analysis that one can read about gold and gold stocks is based on these markets alone. This is quite strange given the multitude of intermarket relationships, but still that’s the case. While it is true that looking at the performance of a given market is the most important thing that one can do when estimating the future performance of a given asset, it doesn’t mean that it’s all there is to it. Conversely, looking at the bigger picture and considering the less known factors can give investors and traders extra insight necessary to gain the Holy Grail of trading – the edge. So, we thought that you might appreciate a discussion of factors that are not as popular as the analysis of the precious metals market on its own, but that is still likely to have an important effect on its price.

Tuesday, November 07, 2017

German Investors Now World’s Largest Gold Buyers / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: GoldCore

– German gold demand surges from 17 ton-a-year to a 100 ton-plus per year
– €6.8 Bln spent on German gold investment products in 2016, more per person than India and China
– Germans turned to gold during financial crises and ongoing euro debasement
– Evidence of latent retail demand on increased economic concerns
– “Gold fulfils an important long-term, wealth preservation role in German investors’ portfolios”

Monday, November 06, 2017

Precious Metals Blastoff About To Happen / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Chris_Vermeulen

If you’ve followed our analysis long enough, you’ll understand that we have been bullish yet cautious of this market move. Our research team at ActiveTradingPartners.com has been warning our members of the potential for a volatile and possibly viscous retracement in the US majors for weeks. We understand that capital, as a source that requires ROI and degrees of certainty, is moving into US equities at an incredible pace and that the last 8+ months fantastic moves in the US markets are related to expectations of greater economic activities related to President Trump and new policies. Yet, we also understand that the markets just don’t up straight up forever and that capital, once risk is evident, will find other sources of ROI should the globe or the US become more volatile. Hence, our position that “Risk” is relatively high at the moment for any unexpected retracements.

Monday, November 06, 2017

Precious Metals Sector On Major Buy Signal / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: The_Gold_Report

Technical analyst Jack Chan charts the latest moves in the gold and silver markets.

Our proprietary cycle indicator is down.

Sunday, November 05, 2017

Gold Speculators Refuse To Give Up; Another Drop Likely / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: John_Rubino

Normally winter is a good time for gold, with men buying their significant others jewelry for Christmas and lots of New Years Day marriage proposals. Here’s an overview of the dynamic from Adam Hamilton of Zeal Intelligence:

Seasonality is the tendency for prices to exhibit recurring patterns at certain times during the calendar year. While seasonality doesn’t drive price action, it quantifies annually-repeating behavior driven by sentiment, technicals, and fundamentals. We humans are creatures of habit and herd, which naturally colors our trading decisions. The calendar year’s passage affects the timing and intensity of buying and selling.