Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Wednesday, December 27, 2017

Gold Miners Are At Another Inflection Point / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018

By: Avi_Gilburt

For those that follow me regularly, you will know that I have been tracking a set up for the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSEARCA:GDX), which I analyze as a proxy for the metals market. I believe that the GDX can outperform the general equity market once we confirm a long term break out has begun, and I think we can see it in 2018.

Recent price action

In early December, we identified a specific 20.89-21.26 support region, which, if held, could begin that major 3rd wave break out and rally we have been awaiting. But, since it would mean that this 2nd wave would have completed in an unorthodox manner, I noted that I would need to see confirmation that the market has truly bottomed.

Tuesday, December 26, 2017

Gold and Silver Intermediate Cycle Update / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: SurfCity

While we are not out of the woods just yet, evidence it beginning to build, from a Price and Time perspective, that an Intermediate Cycle low has been left behind. Gold’s daily and weekly charts look constructive thus far as are the COT reports but the volume patterns are a bit concerning as volume is declining as we have moved higher and we want to see this pattern reverse as volume should start to increase as we move higher. We have confirmed that Gold has found a short term TCL / DCL, including a failed TCL which is one of the factors we look for when a longer ICL develops.

Saturday, December 23, 2017

5 Charts That Show Historic Value in Gold Stocks / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2017

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

Back in early 2016 as precious metals rebounded, our work showed that gold stocks were arguably the cheapest they had ever been. They had the worst 5-year and 10-year rolling performance ever, they were trading at potentially 40-year lows on a price to cash flow basis, they were the cheapest ever relative to the stock market and Gold and most notably, the Barron’s Gold Mining Index was trading at the same level as 42 years ago! The gold stocks enjoyed a massive recovery in 2016 but it was short lived as the sector corrected and then consolidated (far from the highs) for over a year. Although we have a tendency to be too conservative at times, over a month ago we noted a historical pattern that bodes extremely well for gold stocks over the next few years. That outlook is reinforced by the continued historic value in the gold stocks as exhibited by the following charts.

Friday, December 22, 2017

Gold Stocks Coiled Spring Ready for Massive Breakout Upleg 2018 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Zeal_LLC

The gold miners’ stocks largely ground sideways in 2017, lagging gold’s solid rally.  Being trapped in this vexing consolidation has decimated sentiment, leaving a bearish wasteland bereft of hope.  But contrary to perceptions, this deeply-out-of-favor sector is actually a coiled spring today.  Gold stocks are ready to surge dramatically higher as psychology inevitably shifts, pointing to much higher prices coming in 2018.

The main appeal of gold-mining stocks is their underlying profits’ leverage to gold.  The gold miners are much riskier than gold itself, facing many operational, geological, and geopolitical challenges that the metal doesn’t share.  Thus investors and speculators alike must be compensated for these large added risks with superior returns to gold.  That didn’t happen in 2017, which is why gold stocks are so widely despised.

Friday, December 22, 2017

Fed Unwinds, Gold Market Yawns / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

In October, the Federal Reserve started the unwinding of its massive balance sheet. According to the addendum to the Policy Normalization Principles and Plans revealed in June 2017, Fed officials wanted to reduce the size of its security portfolio by $10 billion in October ($6 billion in Treasuries and $4 billion in the mortgage-backed assets). Let’s analyze whether this is really what happened, how the so-called quantitative tightening has influenced the financial markets so far, and what the Fed’s normalization would mean for the gold market.

Friday, December 22, 2017

Will Tax Bill Sink Gold? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

This week, the U.S. Congress approved the tax bill. What does it mean for the gold market?

So it finally happened. After months of struggle, the U.S. lawmakers passed a tax reform on Wednesday. Now, Trump has to sign it into law. What’s in the final version? The bill maintains current seven tax brackets for individuals, but temporarily lowers most income levels and rates for each one. It also increases the standard deduction.

Friday, December 22, 2017

Short-term CRB Rally Driven Mainly by Oil / Commodities / CRB Index

By: Donald_W_Dony

The recent rebound strength in the Commodity Research Bureau Index (CRB) has been underpinned by only a select few natural resources.

The CRB having completed a basing pattern in Q2/Q3 has rallied largely on the back of a single commodity - Light crude oil.

Copper prices have also contributed to the rebound, but the heavy lifting has gone to WTIC.

As near-term futures contracts point to $61 for oil and $3.25 for copper, the rebound maybe short-lived.

Thursday, December 21, 2017

Some Commodity Charts are Breaking Out / Commodities / Commodities Trading

By: Rambus_Chartology

Today I would like to update some charts for the commodities complex as we are starting to see some action in this sector. Back in the summer months when we first started to get long some of the different commodities sectors, we got many breakouts from some very nice H&S bases. After the initial move up came the first consolidation phase that has been going on for nearly four months or so. We are now starting to see some of these consolidation patterns breaking out which should lead to the next impulse move higher in most cases.

Lets start with BHP, one of the biggest miners on the planet, that shows a good example of where we are at in the bull market. Today the price action broke out with a gap above the top rail of an almost 5 month triangle consolidation pattern. A backtest to the top rail would come in around the 43.50 area.

Thursday, December 21, 2017

GOLD AND CRUDE SETUP IS VERY BULLISH! / Commodities / Commodities Trading

By: Enda_Glynn

My Bias: Long to a new all time high above 1827.
Wave Structure: Impulse structure to a new high.
Long term wave count: wave (3) above 1666.

Wednesday, December 20, 2017

Be a Precious Metals' Winner with a Mind Like Water / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: MoneyMetals

We're in the midst of a massive, transformational change that will redefine where we are, what we think is true, and where we believe the future is headed.

With sensory input from across the political and economic spectrum of the Internet bombarding us 24/7, it's understandably difficult to follow through on a decision once made, even if you've researched carefully and thought things through beforehand.

Nowhere is this more difficult right now than the decision of whether or not to invest in – or add to – one's position in the physical gold and silver space.

Wednesday, December 20, 2017

U.S. Industrial Production in November 2017 and Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Industrial production in the U.S. increased 0.2 percent in November. What does it mean for the gold market?

The U.S. industrial production rose 0.2 percent last month, but it was flat if we exclude oil and gas extraction. It was slightly below expectations, but it was the third monthly increase in a row. Importantly, expenditures on business equipment climbed 5.2 percent over the last twelve months. Moreover, the capacity utilization for the industrial sector increased from 77.0 to 77.1 percent in November, the highest level since early 2015. Another positive in the report was an upward revision to October’s industrial production from 0.9 percent to 1.2 percent.

Tuesday, December 19, 2017

Yellen’s December 2017 Press Conference and Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The latest FOMC meeting was accompanied by Janet Yellen’s press conference. Let’s analyze the implications of her remarks for the gold market.

Solid Growth, Strong Labor Market, and Subdued Inflation

In her opening remarks, Yellen noted that economic activity has been solid recently, the labor market has been strong, but inflation has been running below the Committee’s 2 percent longer-run objective. She, thus, upgraded the macroeconomic outlook, as she used to speak about a moderate pace of economic growth and about a strengthening, but not necessarily strong labor market. Although inflation continued to run below the Fed’s target, Yellen said that the FOMC members “continue to believe that this year’s surprising softness in inflation primarily reflects transitory developments that are largely unrelated to broader economic conditions.” Hence, her introductory remarks sounded rather hawkish, which is not good news for the gold market.

Tuesday, December 19, 2017

New EU Rules For Cross-Border Cash, Gold Bullion Movements / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: GoldCore

– War on cash continues and expands to affect non-criminals including gold owners
– New definitions of “cash” to be drawn up by EU to include gold and precious metals
– Claim cash and gold bullion “often used for criminal activities such as money laundering, or terrorist financing”
– Legislation will allow authorities to seize assets from those ‘without a criminal conviction’
– New rules usurp those currently in existence since 2005

Tuesday, December 19, 2017

Gold Cycle is Down, as the Multimonth Consolidation Continues / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: The_Gold_Report

Technical analyst Jack Chan charts the latest movements in the gold and silver markets, noting speculation has reached 'bull market values'.

Our proprietary cycle indicator is down.

Tuesday, December 19, 2017

If You Listen to Youtube Commenters Gold Is Dead And Crypto Will Never, Ever Go Down In Price / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Jeff_Berwick

If you read the Youtube comments, many people think I am crazy for suggesting that those who have held crypto for the last year, or longer, and who have gains of 2,000-600,000% might want to take some profits and invest in an unloved sector like precious metals and gold stocks.

This is very interesting, because for the last six years, whenever I would mention that people should invest in cryptocurrencies as well as precious metals, many Youtube commenters would jeer me as being crazy for investing in a Ponzi scheme or scam such as bitcoin.

Monday, December 18, 2017

Gold and CPI and Retail Sales in November 2017 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Last week, the reports on U.S. consumer inflation and retail sales were released. What do they imply for the gold market?

Consumer prices jumped 0.4 percent in November, following a 0.1 percent rise in October. However, the move was driven mainly by higher costs of gasoline and fuel oil. The energy index increased 3.9 percent last month. Hence, the core CPI, which excludes food and energy, increased merely 0.1 percent. On an annual basis, the core CPI was 1.7 percent, which means a drop from 1.8 percent in October. The overall index soared 2.2 percent, rising from 2.0 percent in October and exceeding the Fed’s target again. Therefore, there was a slight shift up in the overall index, but a minimal slowdown in core inflation, as one can see in the chart below.

Monday, December 18, 2017

Who Knows What Will Black Gold Do in Coming Week? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

On Thursday, crude oil moved a bit higher as oil investors turned their attention to the North Sea supply disruption. Although the price of black gold increased, the technical picture of the commodity doesn’t bode well for oil bulls. Why? We invite you to check our Oil Trading Alert. Have a nice read.

Yesterday, crude oil came back above $57 as oil investors focused on the Forties pipeline, which carries North Sea oil to Britain. Nevertheless, we should keep in mind that the above-mentioned disruptions will physically mostly affect the North Sea region. In other words, we think that the shale drilling and the last week increase in the U.S. production (which approached the output levels of top producers - Russia and Saudi Arabia) are more important for the price of light crude. Therefore, in our opinion, it is worth waiting for today's Baker Hughes report before we get excited about yesterday's increase and its “bullish” implications. Having said that, let’s examine the technical picture of crude oil (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).

Monday, December 18, 2017

Gold’s Shooting Star and Its Implications / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: P_Radomski_CFA

After three weeks of declines, gold finally moved higher last week. Was this move surprising? Not at all, if you read our analysis of the previous week’s huge decline in platinum. The sizable slide in the latter was likely to trigger at least a small rally and that’s what we saw last week. However, gold reversed quite clearly on Friday and shooting star candlesticks, as these sessions are called, are signs of a reversal. Did we see one?

That’s not likely. There are several reasons not to believe the shooting start in gold. Let’s take a look at yellow metal’s chart for details (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).

Monday, December 18, 2017

Should You Consider Investing/ Buying Gold or Bitcoin? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Recently, we have been asked by a number of clients about the precious metals and what our advice would be with regards to buying, selling or holding physical or trading positions in the metals.  There are really only a few short and simple answers to this question and they are revolve around the concept of providing a hedge against risk, capital preservation and opportunity for returns.  Let's explore the details a bit further.

Monday, December 18, 2017

Gold EFPs: Absolute Proof that the Paper Gold Price is a Fraud / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Stewart_Dougherty

In recent months, the issuance of gold Exchange for Physical (EFP) contracts has surged. EFPs convert a physically deliverable Comex gold contract into an LBMA or LME contract supposedly deliverable at a later date ex London and/or Hong Kong. As an incentive for Comex contract holders to accept EFPs, a cash bonus reportedly is paid. EFPs in silver are also being issued in vast quantities, but we will focus on gold for brevity.

Most gold market observers believe that EFPs are a Comex gimmick designed to prevent, or at least forestall a formal Comex delivery failure. We believe the full story behind the EFPs is more complicated and disturbing, and that it involves collusion, conspiracy, and fraud.