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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Interest-Rates

Tuesday, January 24, 2017

Fed Monetary Policy Is Impotent Against These Trends / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: John_Mauldin

Chris Wood of CLSA has a marvelous newsletter called, aptly, GREED & fear. He began his January 5 issue talking about bond yields possibly bottoming out.

For perspective, he starts with this long-term view of the 10-year US Treasury yield.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, January 24, 2017

How Bond Market Investors Were Fooled Twice / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: EWI

The Commercials and Large Speculators are routinely on the opposite sides of trades

Most investors, including large groups of professional money managers, extrapolate financial trends into the future. So they're often completely caught off guard when a trend changes.

[Editor's Note: The text version of the story is below.]

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Interest-Rates

Monday, January 23, 2017

Building Societies are Winning the Mortgage Interest Rate War / Interest-Rates / Mortgages

By: MoneyFacts

With competition still fierce in the mortgage market and many banks claiming to launch the lowest products ever on their records, many borrowers could assume that the mortgage rates from these providers will be significantly lower than those offered elsewhere. However, Moneyfacts.co.uk research shows that building societies are the winners when it comes to the mortgage rate war.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, January 19, 2017

Trump Deficits Will Be Huge / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: Peter_Schiff

There is much we don't know about how the Trump presidency will play out. Will the Wall get built? Who will pay for it? Will it have at least some fencing? Will repeal and replace happen at exactly the same time? Will Trump throw a ceremonial switch? Will there be a Trump National Golf Course in Sochi? It's anyone's guess. But of one thing we can be fairly certain. President Trump is very likely to preside over the largest expansion of Federal budget deficits in our history. Trump has built his companies with debt and I'm sure he thinks he can do the same with the country. His annual budget deficits are likely going to be huge. This development will make a greater impact on the investment landscape than most on Wall Street can imagine.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, January 12, 2017

How Debt Differs in China, the US and Japan / Interest-Rates / China Debt Crisis

By: Dan_Steinbock

Unlike advanced economies, China remains better positioned to overcome its debt challenges, due to the nature of is debt, level of development and economic fundamentals. Change is coming – but after fall.

In recent months, China has managed to stabilize growth. Nevertheless, stabilization has required capital controls, continued lending and repeated interventions. Due to efforts to stabilize the renminbi, for instance, China’s foreign-exchange reserves fell to $3 trillion last month; the lowest since spring 2011.
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Interest-Rates

Sunday, January 08, 2017

China Potentially Threatens a Near Term Us Treasury Bond Market Short Squeeze! / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Gordon_T_Long

Problems in China are looming on top of an already very tenuous and misunderstood situation in the US Financial Markets. Additionally, Federal Reserve Policy has made the situation even more combustible!

As a result of a Trump Victory inspired bond market massacre there are now few places that a yield starved world can presently find better risk-adjusted yields than in US Treasuries. With China now being forced to sell their FX Reserves and thereby creating  the much needed supply so eagerly craved by foreign investors, it is also further depleting an already restricted EuroDollar pool required to buy this supply. There are consequences of this combination of shifting global parameters.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, January 04, 2017

Trumponomics Won’t Trump the Bond Market Bust / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Michael_Pento

Despite the millions of dollars Wall Street plowed into the Clinton campaign in vain, the financial industry has nevertheless now become downright giddy with the prospects of a Donald Trump presidency. The imperative question investors need to determine is will the Trump presidency be able to generate viable growth. And, if he cannot produce robust and sustainable growth imminently, are the markets now priced for perfection that simply may never arrive?

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, January 04, 2017

Increased Fiscal Spending Could Spell Debt Trouble for 2017 / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: John_Mauldin

Over the past 30 years, America’s economic growth and boom-bust market cycles have been fueled with abundant sources of cheap debt. Whether emerging markets or commodity-rich countries, there’s been no shortage of buyers of US debt.

This has allowed the US—and by extension its consumers—to borrow huge sums of capital to spend on fiscal items or for personal consumption. It was a rather symbiotic relationship from which both parties would benefit, even if longer term prosperity was being jeopardized.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, December 26, 2016

Moment of Truth for US Bonds / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Gary_Savage

Moment of Truth for Bonds

Bonds are severely oversold. There should be a bounce but if it’s weak, or doesn’t last very long then prepare for a crash. I’ve never seen a bubble yet that popped gracefully.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, December 25, 2016

Greece’s Debt Problem Has Reached a Dangerous Point / Interest-Rates / Eurozone Debt Crisis

By: John_Mauldin

BY ALLISON FEDIRKA : Before the Italian banking crisis and referendum, before Brexit… there was Greece. Greece’s debt crisis was really the first public crack in the European Union’s armor and one that has yet to be repaired.

Readers who want to understand why anti-EU sentiment and nationalism have developed in many of these countries don’t have to look at migration or other controversial topics. Simply look at Greece and how it has fared after adopting the EU’s austerity terms.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, December 25, 2016

I Bet We’ll Get Four or More Interest Rate Hikes Next Year / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: John_Mauldin

BY JARED DILLIAN : The fed funds target is now 0.50%–0.75%.1 Hooray!

The Fed is finally, after eight years, normalizing interest rates.

The timing is awfully interesting, though—what a coincidence that the rate hike comes right after the election!

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, December 24, 2016

The Italian Banking Crisis: No Free Lunch -- or Is There? / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2016

By: Ellen_Brown

On December 4, 2016, Italian voters rejected a referendum to amend their constitution to give the government more power, and the Italian prime minister resigned. The resulting chaos has pushed Italy's already-troubled banks into bankruptcy. First on the chopping block is the 500 year old Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA (BMP), the oldest surviving bank in the world and the third largest bank in Italy. The concern is that its loss could trigger the collapse of other banks and even of the eurozone itself.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, December 24, 2016

A Broken US Bond Market Bounce Beckons! / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Gordon_T_Long

Historical Correlations Give Us a Clue to What May Be Ahead!


A Falling Global Market Cap Trend Channel

The old adage that the "Trend is Your Friend" has proven to be the one that separates the winners from the losers. The key however is whether you recognize the right trend!

We are being possibly lulled into a false perception and belief of how good things appear if we solely look at the US equity rally. Yes it is temporarily rising but the 600# Gorilla is the Global Bond market and major problems are still lurking.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, December 22, 2016

Social Trading – Different types and Styles / Interest-Rates / Learn to Trade

By: Submissions

Trading based on collective wisdom of a network of traders is the up and coming way to trade.  Social Trading allows one big network of traders to use each other’s wisdom and experience to trade in a new way.  Connecting traders to one another enhances everyone’s trading

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, December 21, 2016

Why Are Foreign Nations Dumping US Treasuries / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Dan_Steinbock

Recently, foreign holders of US treasuries have been dumping their holdings more and at record pace. Optimists see it as a temporary fluctuation. Realists warn about structural change.

According to US Treasury data, major foreign holders of US treasury securities have been reducing their holdings by almost $250 billion since March. The pace of dumping has intensified with some $200 billion reduced in just past two months.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, December 20, 2016

Brace Yourself For Italy’s Bankruptcy / Interest-Rates / Eurozone Debt Crisis

By: John_Mauldin

When Charles Gave of Gavekal chooses to express displeasure over an economic trend, an asset class, or what have you, he does not mince words. Right now, Charles is exercised about Italy.

When Italy adopted the euro in 1999, Charles argued at the time that Italy would change from being an economy with a high probability of many currency devaluations to one with the certain probability of eventual bankruptcy. Now, he says, the fateful moment is not far off.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, December 20, 2016

Trump Appointees Could Make Up The Majority Of The Fed In Two Years / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: John_Mauldin

BY PATRICK WATSON : The Trump administration's economic team is beginning to take shape, but we still don’t have nominees for two Federal Reserve Board vacancies.

Whoever gets them will have a chance to truly disrupt the global economy. That’s a big deal—so why haven’t we heard more about Trump’s plans for the Fed?

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, December 18, 2016

US DEBT - A Total Disregard For Fiscal Responsibility / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: Andy_Sutton

While we aren’t sure the coast is clear – yet – the show must indeed go on. There are topics that need to be discussed. Now with the whole new concept of ‘fake news’ out there for the sole purpose of discrediting anything the establishment wants off the radar we’re going to have to ask you to look at the decade’s worth of work that has been poured into this column and decide if we are fake or not.

For the sake of honesty, it must be pointed out that the mainstream media, in a classic false flag type move, created the whole idea of fake news with its own ridiculous material, then used the whole stunt to say ‘see, we need to be careful because there are lots of phonies out there’. Darn right there are. We’ll allow that there are quite a few shills in the alternative media. Their betrayal will be exposed in time, but for the most part the phonies have three letter network affiliations attached to them.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, December 18, 2016

US Bond Market Implosion Continues / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Gary_Savage

The Bond Implosion Continues

Is the bond market implosion the next black swan event that everyone is ignoring?

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Interest-Rates

Friday, December 16, 2016

Trump Making Deficits and Public Debt Great Again / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Trump’s economic agenda consists of foreign policy, fiscal policy and regulatory policy. We have already commented a bit about Trump’s imprint on geopolitics and uncertainty in the context of the gold market. Now, let’s focus on the domestic policies.

First, Trump wants to reduce regulations hampering business. During the campaign he called for a moratorium on new financial regulations and for a 70 percent reduction in regulations. Importantly, in his 100-day action plan, the president-elect proposed that for every new federal regulation, two existing regulations must be eliminated. Deregulation should stimulate economic growth and the stock market, which is not good for the yellow metal.

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