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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Interest-Rates

Monday, November 07, 2016

Thanks to Obamacare, US Government Debt Is Worse Than You Think / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: John_Mauldin

You’re probably aware that the US budget deficit jumped to $590 billion for fiscal 2016. What you might not know is that US government debt rose by $1.4 trillion last fiscal year. That difference between the deficit and debt increases is a huge number.

What did we spend that additional $800 billion on?

My friends Dr. Lacy Hunt and Van Hoisington of Hoisington Asset Management can answer that question and more. Using current CBO projections and the trend in off-budget debt, Lacy and Van estimate that US government debt could grow by an additional $13 trillion in the next 10 years (by 2025). That would put total debt at $33 trillion and push to 150% debt-to-GDP.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, October 27, 2016

The Next Big Shoe to Drop – Student Loans / Interest-Rates / Student Finances

By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis

More than 40 million young Americans carry federal and private student loan debt – amounting to over $1 trillion. Defaults are on the rise and the issue has grown to become a nasty wealth transfer mechanism, as well as sad example of the failure of finance in general.

This week, President Obama announced a new initiative framed as a way of addressing the issue. Sadly, it is far from the mark, and just one more indication that monetary masters are the real puppeteers.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, October 25, 2016

The Current Message of Yield Curves: Inflation or Deflation? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Gary_Tanashian

With the state of post-Op/Twist systemic dysfunction, there are no absolutes, but…

Generally, a rising yield curve (after years of Goldilocks and her favored declining curve) would signal changes in financial markets.  But it is not as simple as stating ‘the curve is rising… it’s bearish!’ or ‘the curve is rising… it’s bullish!’.  It is potentially both of those things and it will have different implications for different markets and asset classes.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, October 25, 2016

Broken Central Banks: 4 Quick Pix / Interest-Rates / Central Banks

By: Jim_Willie_CB

The Western central bank franchise system is totally broken, totally insolvent, and totally corrupt. It invites the Gold Standard return. The entire financial system is built upon a debt-based monetary system. The debt saturation process has run its full course. The central bank heads have been covering the sovereign debt for the last five years, having rendered their balance sheets as ruined. Debt is at obscene levels, like $19.7 trillion for the USGovt. No debt limits are in place anymore, a signal that most likely it has already defaulted. A hidden game is underway, with control lost to the creditors, even as they attempt to salvage their debt holdings. The major central banks continue to manage badly the great game, where money is fake phony and a farce. A titanic battle is underway, where the Eastern nations are discarding their USTreasury Bonds, and doing so in tremendous volume while they set up the many platforms and pieces to the Gold Standard.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, October 24, 2016

Did a Secret Central Banking Cabal Just Turn AGAINST the US? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Graham_Summers

Quietly and with little if any notice, foreign Central Banks have begun DUMPING US Debt.

Take a look at this chart. Does this look like a bull market to you? Because to me it looks like it could be the beginning of a panic sale.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, October 19, 2016

The Fed Has Made Another Massive Policy Error / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: John_Mauldin

I would argue that the Great Recession was a result of a massive monetary policy error. The Fed kept rates too low for too long, which—when coupled with lax or no regulation in the mortgage markets—resulted in a housing bubble and a crash. This then bled over to global markets.

I believe we are again suffering the effects of a massive monetary policy error. The error has already been committed, but we have just begun to endure the consequences.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, October 14, 2016

US T-Bill Rejection At Ports In Progress / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Jim_Willie_CB

World trade has fallen for the second quarter in a row. The decade of stagnation of industrial production in the United States, Japan, and European Union can be blamed on financial engineering, housing bubbles, war, and recently on destructive monetary policy in QE bond purchase program. It is not stimulus, but rather a destroyer of capital. The West contains several nations with heavy industrial emphasis, hardly advanced economies anymore. They risk a fall into the Third World from a generation of outsourcing, asset bubbles, and financial fraud, as soon as the new currency regime is installed as part of the financial RESET.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, October 14, 2016

Our Current Keynesian Nightmare / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: Frank_Hollenbeck

It is not an understatement to say that the economic policy of the United States since 2008 has been purely Keynesian. Interest rates are near zero and the national debt stands at nearly $20 trillion. This is a direct result of applying the policy prescription recommended in Keynes’ General Theory. One day, his book will likely sit next to Karl Marx’s Communist Manifesto as works that generated dangerously false notions of reality with disastrous consequences.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, October 14, 2016

These 2 Debt Instruments Pose Peril to Millions of Investors / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: EWI

A billionaire says the search for yield is overriding credit judgment

In a world of low and even negative rates, bond investors are so hungry for yield they're willing to accept high levels of risk.

For example, bond investors are increasingly embracing debt instruments known as covenant lite loans, which provide minimal protection should the issuer get into financial trouble.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, October 12, 2016

Announcing Trader Education Week -- a Free Event to Help You Learn to Spot Trading Opportunities / Interest-Rates / Learn to Trade

By: EWI

Dear Trader,

You have an opportunity to spend the next week learning how you can spot high-confidence trade setups in the charts you follow every day.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, October 12, 2016

Is The Fed Delaying The Day Of Reckoning? / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: Chris_Vermeulen

The FED and the Corporate World understand that there is NO economic recovery. They need to keep feeding this ‘bull market’ with plenty of accommodative easing or this ‘bull’ will die.  The FED will do whatever it takes to maintain this by cutting rates to near zero and below so as to spruce up the economy. However, these conventional policies that are being applied, by the FED, will not work seeing as the ‘deflationary forces’ have gained momentum. Global economies cannot sustain rate hikes. They will continue to use ‘expansionary monetary policy’, indefinitely: (https://finance.yahoo.com/n...).

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Interest-Rates

Monday, October 10, 2016

Bubble Blind Central Bankers / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: Michael_Pento

Fed Head Janet Yellen is keeping alive the tradition of her predecessors, Messrs. Greenspan and Bernanke, by showing she is equally as blind-sighted to the bubbles central banks are blowing in the bond and equity markets. During her September press conference, Ms. Yellen stubbornly clung to the misconception that it is only possible to tell if a bubble exists after it bursts. And because of this delusion, in Yellen's eyes ninety-six months of a virtual Zero Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP) is merely, and I quote, "a modest degree of accommodation." Her blinders are so opaque that she claims to see, "no signs of leverage building up." And her feckless ability to spot market imbalances even resulted in this doozy of a Yellen quote: "In general, I would not say that asset valuations are out of line with historical norms."

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, October 09, 2016

World Gone Mad: Credit Bubble “Perpetual Preferred” / Interest-Rates / International Bond Market

By: John_Rubino

Towards the end of a credit bubble, ideas that might have seemed crazy in more boring times are not just accepted but embraced by investors desperate to keep the high that comes from effortless bull-market profits.

In the junk bond bubble of the late 1980s, for instance, there was the “PIK preferred,” a kind of stock/bond hybrid that paid its holders in more securities (PIK stood for “payment in kind”). Companies could issue them with zero near-term cash flow consequence while credulous investors bought them for their “high yields.”

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, October 04, 2016

WARNING: the Bond Markets Are Signaling Something MASSIVE is Coming / Interest-Rates / Financial Crisis 2016

By: Graham_Summers

To understand the financial markets, you need to understand the hierarchy of asset classes.

That hierarchy is as follows:

Globally, the stock market is about $69 trillion in size, trading about $191 billion in shares per day.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, October 03, 2016

An Interest Rate Hike Would Be Ugly for US Bonds / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: John_Mauldin

BY JARED DILLIAN : I’ve taken bond math classes out the wazoo. The best of them was in the summer of 2001 at Lehman Brothers. Lehman Brothers wasn’t going to teach a bad bond math class, not at the firm that became synonymous with bond trading itself. I was ready to start whipping ‘em around. Pity I ended up in stocks.

Now, the tables have been turned, and I am the old, wizened professor, dropping some knowledge on the younger generation. I occasionally teach finance to MBA students, and there are a couple of chapters on bonds where the students have to get their calculators out.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, October 03, 2016

Out-of-Touch Fed Is Hurting the Average American / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: John_Mauldin

BY PATRICK WATSON : For the world’s top central banks, “the blind leading the blind” isn’t just a proverb. It’s reality.

A European Central Bank official recently said the ECB wants our Federal Reserve to hike interest rates in December. Why is that? In their twisted minds, it will confirm that years of monetary insanity actually worked.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, September 30, 2016

The Fed Is Leading Us to Economic Hell / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: John_Mauldin

The Fed argues that low rates have worked. The economy emerged from recession. Unemployment drifted back down. “Yay for us,” said the Fed.

Don't buy that statistical economic garbage. The economy recovered in spite of Fed policy, not because of it. The economy recovered because business owners, entrepreneurs, and workers rolled up their sleeves and made things happen.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, September 30, 2016

Today’s Fed Makes Volcker Look Timid / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: John_Mauldin

Let’s look at the Fed’s (and other central banks’) magnitude of monetary manipulation in recent years and the very constrained maneuvering room they now have as a consequence.

Of course, it’s questionable whether they should even be trying to maneuver the economy to the degree that they are. The current problem is a direct result of mistakes made during and after the last financial crisis.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, September 29, 2016

FED Goes from ZIRP to NIRP! / Interest-Rates / NIRP

By: Chris_Vermeulen

The FED has not followed through on their numerous promises of a rate increase that Yellen and other FED officials have made over the past several years. She spoke about purchasing assets of private companies and also mentioned that the FED could modify its inflation target.

Investors will most likely purchase shares in companies whose assets have been purchased by the FED since it is likely that Congress and federal regulators would treat these companies as “too big to fail.” Federal ownership of private companies would also strengthen the movement to force businesses to base their decisions on political rather than economic considerations.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, September 28, 2016

Massive Chinese Debt And Why They Are On A Gold Buying Binge! / Interest-Rates / China Debt Crisis

By: Chris_Vermeulen

China’s debt is a staggering $24 trillion with 247% of annual GDP as of last year, which is, in fact, an increase of an astounding 465% within a decade. The total borrowing by both the financial and non-financial sectors was only 78% of the GDP in 2007 and has since increased to 309% of GDP according to economists at Nomura Holdings Inc. led by Yang Zhao and Wendy Chen.

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