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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Interest-Rates

Monday, November 20, 2017

Soaring Deficits Force US Treasury into Foolish Debt Gamble / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: Michael_Pento

The Treasury opened the fiscal year 2018 with an October budget deficit of $63.2 billion. That is 37.9% larger than the $45.8 billion deficit in October of last year. The primary reason behind this surge in year-over-year deficits was a 21.6% increase in net interest expenses. The annual red-ink problem looks even greater when recognizing that the national debt is already over 105% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), at nearly $21 trillion, and with an additional $10 trillion projected to be added in the next ten years.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, November 19, 2017

Next-Generation Crazy: The Fed Plans For The Coming Recession / Interest-Rates / Recession 2018

By: John_Rubino

Insanity, like criminality, usually starts small and expands with time. In the Fed’s case, the process began in the 1990s with a series of (in retrospect) relatively minor problems running from Mexico’s currency crisis thorough Russia’s bond default, the Asian Contagion financial crisis, the Long Term Capital Management collapse and finally the Y2K computer bug.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, November 17, 2017

The Fed Isn’t “Confused” About Inflation… It WANTS You In the Dark! / Interest-Rates / Inflation

By: Graham_Summers

The Fed claims it’s “confused” as to why inflation remains so low.

The Fed isn’t confused at all. It intentionally measures inflation in ridiculous ways to guarantee that the “official number” remains nowhere near reality.

On top of this, we have factual evidence that Fed is in fact well aware that inflation is clocking in well above its 2% “target.”

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, November 09, 2017

Prepare For Interest Rate Rises And Global Debt Bubble Collapse / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis 2017

By: GoldCore

– Diversify, rebalance investments and prepare for interest rate rises
– UK launches inquiry into household finances as £200bn debt pile looms
– Centuries of data forewarn of rapid reversal from ultra low interest rates
– 700-year average real interest rate is 4.78% (must see chart)
– Massive global debt bubble – over $217 trillion (see table)
– Global debt levels are building up to a gigantic tidal wave
– Move to safe haven higher ground from coming tidal wave

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, November 08, 2017

If This Bond Market Line Breaks, We’re in Serious Trouble / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Graham_Summers

Let’s talk about Junk Bonds.

Junk Bonds are corporate debt issued by companies that have a significant chance of defaulting (meaning they don’t pay you back).

Why would anyone want to lend these companies money?

Because these bonds are risky, they typically pay very large yields to compensate for the increased risk. Think yields of 8% or even 10%.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, November 08, 2017

Here’s Why The Market Mispriced Jay Powell / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: John_Mauldin

BY JARED DILLIAN : Jay Powell has been named the next Chairman of the Federal Reserve. Provided he survives the confirmation process, it is a done deal.

This wasn’t the easiest pick for Trump. It’s not easy to find a Republican who is also in favor of low interest rates. Powell isn’t exactly a dove, but he’s significantly more dovish than John Taylor.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, November 02, 2017

Bank of England Hikes UK Interest Rates 100%, Reversing BREXIT PANIC Cut! / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The Bank of England with much forewarning hiked UK interest rates by 100% today, raising the base interest rate from 0.25% to 0.5%. However, before everyone starts to panic that this heralds the start towards of rates rising to pre 2008 levels, instead the reality is that all that the Bank of England has done is to reverse the PANIC BREXIT INTEREST RATE CUT of August 2016. Which had seen the Bank of England cut interest rates to there lowest levels in the Bank of England's 320 year history. Which followed over 7 years of rates being held at 0.5% the duration of which had seen virtually ALL economists reveal the true extent of their ineptitude as they had collectively consistently forecast that UK Interest rates were always just about to head higher, that a a series of rate hikes were always just months away, which not only never materialised but culminated in the reality of a RATE CUT last year!

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, November 02, 2017

Who Will Be the Next Fed Chief - And Why It Matters / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: Dan_Steinbock

Janet Yellen's term is ending at the Federal Reserve. With new appointments, President Trump can indirectly shape US monetary policy for years to come - for better or worse. 

Serving as the “epitome of calm,” Fed chief Ben Bernanke responded to the global financial crisis by cutting the federal funds rate to zero and initiating rounds of quantitative easing (QE) soon thereafter.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, November 02, 2017

Government Finances and Gold - Cautionary Tale told in Four Charts / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: Michael_J_Kosares

“President Trump, in complete contradiction to candidate Trump, has praised Yellen for being a ‘low-interest-rate-person.’ One reason Trump may have changed his position is that, like most first-term presidents, he thinks low interest rates will help him win reelection. Trump may also realize that his welfare and warfare spending plans require an accommodative Fed to monetize the federal debt. The truth is President Trump’s embrace of status quo monetary policy could prove fatal to both his presidency and the American economy.” – Ron Paul, Institute for Peace and Prosperity
Editor’s note: This issue of our newsletter features several interactive, live charts offered in conjunction with the St. Louis Federal Reserve and the ICE Benchmark Administration/LBMA. You can access statistical details by moving your cursor over the charts. If the chart does not automatically update, please move the toggle button on the year bar all the way to the right. We invite you to bookmark this edition for future reference.
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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, November 01, 2017

QE’s Untold Story: A Chart That Fed Correspondents Need To Investigate / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: F_F_Wiley

We’ve produced some research over the years that we’d love to see the powers-that-be react to, but none more so than our look at financial flows during the QE programs.

By netting all lending by banks and broker-dealers and then comparing it to the Fed’s lending, we stumbled upon a chart that seemed to show exactly what QE does or doesn’t do. But “doesn’t,” not “does,” was the story, and it couldn’t have been clearer. Or shown a more stimulating pattern. To geeks like us, our Excel click on “Insert, Line” was like stepping from a shady trail to a sunny vista.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, October 31, 2017

US Debt Revelation Numbers / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: Michael_Pento

The federal budget deficit widened in the fiscal year 2017 to the sixth highest on record, creating a budget shortfall of $666 billion. That is up $80 billion, or 14%, from the fiscal year 2016. The overspend resulted primarily from an increase in spending for Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid, as well as higher interest payments on the debt due to rising rates that drove up outlays to $4 trillion, which was 3% higher than the previous fiscal year.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, October 28, 2017

Markets Big Macro Play Ahead / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Gary_Tanashian

At NFTRH, we are about major macro turning points above all else. Of course, it is often years between these turning points or points of significant change so we are also about the here and now, and managing the trends, Old Turkey style.*

Since we are all learning all the time, I have no problem admitting to you that while right and bullish on commodities and stocks in 2009, after becoming bullish on the precious metals in Q4 2008, I completely ignored Old Turkey due to my inner biases. The result has been that after taking excellent profits from the precious metals bull, personally, I have greatly under performed the stock market bull despite holding a bullish analytical view for the majority of the post-2012 period.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, October 25, 2017

Trump May Reappoint Yellen as Fed Chair after All / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: MoneyMetals

By Clint Siegner: Candidate Donald Trump was none too kind to current Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen during his 2016 campaign. However, the President’s tone with regards to Yellen and Fed policy has been softening since his election.

Trump met one on one with Yellen and other top contenders last week and now appears quite open to the idea of reappointing her to another four-year term.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, October 21, 2017

“Great Rotation” Ahead; Will it Be Inflationary or Deflationary? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Gary_Tanashian

[edit] This article ultimately leans toward the view that the reasons for a rising curve will be inflationary. But I woke up in the middle of the night and my thoughts drifted to the components of the article (yeah, that’s pretty sad, I know), and with further consideration I am leaning toward neutral or even a bit into the deflationary camp. The reasons will be the stuff of another article.

Think back to the blaring headlines about the Great Promotion Rotation in the financial media in 2013. Perhaps the media circus started in January of that year when The Economist asked the question of whether the rise in bond yields signaled a “flight” out bonds and into equities. It was probably an earnest and right minded question asked by The Economist, but you know our friends in the greater financial media; get a good story and flog the hell out of it to harvest eyeballs. Reality be damned, man, it’s the eyeballs that matter!

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, October 18, 2017

History Says Global Debt Levels Will Lead to Another Crisis / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis 2017

By: GoldSilver

Jeff Clark : It may feel like we’ll escape a debt crisis since, well, the world hasn’t ended in spite of runaway debt levels. Some of us hard money people feel like we’re taking crazy pills; how the heck can debt be so out of control, so completely unpayable, and yet the financial system keeps chugging along as if nothing’s wrong?

Well, history has a message for us: the current calm won’t last forever, because there is a direct link between government debt levels and the number of financial crises that occur. And since global debt levels are high—the second highest level in the past 150 years—it’s not exactly a stretch to conclude that another financial crisis is coming.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, October 17, 2017

What Happens When the Fed FINALLY Reduces Its $4.5 Trillion Balance Sheet? / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: EWI

So, there we have it. Deflation has started.

The Federal Reserve announced last month that they would start to reduce their $4.5 trillion balance sheet in October, thereby starting the process we call Quantitative Tightening (QT). As expected, they are aiming to do it gently and quietly, by not reinvesting bonds as they mature, starting with sums of around $6 billion of Treasuries and $4 billion in Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS). The scale of non-reinvestment will gradually increase. Once in full swing, the Fed's balance sheet could reduce by up to $150 billion each quarter.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, October 16, 2017

Who Will Be the Next Fed Chief - And Why It Matters  / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: Dan_Steinbock

Janet Yellen's term is ending at the Federal Reserve. With new appointments, President Trump can indirectly shape US monetary policy for years to come - for better or worse. 

Serving as the “epitome of calm,” Fed chief Ben Bernanke responded to the global financial crisis by cutting the federal funds rate to zero and initiating rounds of quantitative easing (QE) soon thereafter.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Interest-Rates

Sunday, October 15, 2017

How to Wipe Out Puerto Rico's Debt Without Hurting Bondholders / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis 2017

By: Ellen_Brown

During his visit to hurricane-stricken Puerto Rico, President Donald Trump shocked the bond market when he told Geraldo Rivera of Fox News that he was going to wipe out the island's bond debt. He said on October 3rd:

You know they owe a lot of money to your friends on Wall Street. We're gonna have to wipe that out. That's gonna have to be -- you know, you can say goodbye to that. I don't know if it's Goldman Sachs but whoever it is, you can wave good-bye to that.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, October 13, 2017

It Would Take A 50% Hike in Income Tax to Fund Current US Budget Deficit / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: John_Mauldin

The projected total US debt will be $30 trillion within 10 years, using the CBO’s own numbers. But the CBO also makes the rosy assumptions that there will be no recessions and that GDP will grow at a 4% nominal rate.

Now, that’s possible; I'm inclined to haircut it a bit.

If you asked me to bet the “over/under” on the debt in 2027, I would bet the over at $35 trillion.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, October 11, 2017

The Profoundly Personal Impact Of The National Debt On Our Retirements / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: Dan_Amerman

In this analysis we will take a look at something deeply personal – which is how the $20 trillion United States national debt may change the day-to-day quality of life for savers and retirees in the decades ahead. That is likely a somewhat unusual perspective for many savers and investors.

On the one hand, we have what are often thought of as abstract economic concepts - such as how large will the national debt be in 10 or 20 years? How will Federal Reserve actions to increase interest rates change future government deficits and debts?

On the other hand, we have something that is typically presented as being entirely different, which is individual financial planning. What are the savings and investment choices that we need to make today that will help determine what our standard of living may be in retirement 10, 20 or 30 years from now?

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