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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Interest-Rates

Sunday, October 14, 2018

Here’s Where the Next Financial Crisis Begins / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis 2018

By: Harry_Dent

The 2008 financial crisis was well overdue, what with predictably slowing demographics, especially in the U.S. at first, and an unprecedented debt bubble in the developed countries.

The trigger was the subprime crisis – a small, but high-risk sector of really bad loans that started to blow up when everyday households started to default on mortgages they could never afford in the first place. But that was only the trigger.

Since early 2009, we’ve seen unprecedented money printing to save the banking system and economy from a depression, and most of the new debt has accumulated in the third world. A McKinsey study shows that emerging markets have taken on $57 trillion in additional debt through 2014, with more to follow.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, October 14, 2018

Fed is Doing More Than Just Raising Rates / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: Rodney_Johnson

Over the past month the 10-year Treasury bond yield has jumped from under 3.00% to 3.23%, sending tremors through the equity markets. By now you’ve heard/read/thought about the usual suspects.

As interest rates move higher, equity investors searching for income finally (finally!) have a viable alternative to stocks.

As interest rates move higher, consumers using borrowed funds to purchase homes, cars, and stuff on credit cards will have to pay more, which should curb their economic appetite.
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Interest-Rates

Thursday, October 11, 2018

Loss Of Yield Curve "Shock Absorber" Could Mean A Rough Ride Ahead For Markets & Housing / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Dan_Amerman

Two important financial cycles are currently converging for the first time in more than ten years, and how they work in combination can provide key information about the future value of our retirement portfolios, the future prices of our homes, and even when the next recession may hit.

A continuing cycle of interest rate increases by the Federal Reserve has pushed Fed Funds rates up 2% from their floor. This same cycle has contributed to rapidly rising long term interest rates, with 10 year Treasury yields rising to 3.22% by the market close on October 5th, 2018.

This sharp surge in interest rates has led not only to falling bond prices, but to tumbling stock prices as well.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, October 07, 2018

The Latest Double Standard from the Fed / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: Rodney_Johnson

Collectively, we just got screwed again, and I bet most people didn’t even know it. It happens so many times, particularly at the hands of the Federal Reserve, it’s hard to keep track.

A new bank called The Narrow Bank, or TNB, recently applied for an account with the Fed.

This would give the bank recognition by a local reserve bank, in this case New York, and access to its services, like distribution of currency, check processing and other forms of electronic payments.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, October 05, 2018

Chinese Credit Collapse Is Imminent / Interest-Rates / China Debt Crisis

By: John_Mauldin

Many good things are happening in China.

Businesses are prospering. Living standards rise. The country’s interior is still quite poor but life is improving.

This progress is welcome news. The problem is how China is financing it. The answer is, “with a lot of debt.”

You often hear about China’s government and corporate debt, but less about households.
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Interest-Rates

Thursday, October 04, 2018

Eurozone Debt Crisis - Italy and the Euro Unplugged / Interest-Rates / Italy

By: Axel_Merk

Why is it that Italy causes such a stir in financial markets when proposing a budget? Is it politics or is the stability of the financial system at stake? In our assessment, the best way to avert a crisis is to allow market forces to play out. Let me explain.

We all “know” Italy is in trouble. Well, before we jump to conclusions, let’s look at a few charts. Above is the Italian unemployment rate; it’s come off a high level, but still elevated. When policy makers call for structural reform, it is a codeword for increasing flexibility in the labor market, i.e. making firing easier. If firing workers is difficult, companies won’t hire workers. It’s also in this context that providing a so-called basic income is criticized by some as providing a disincentive to join the labor force (aside from cementing higher deficits for years to come). Basic income means you get paid, whether you work or not. In practice, the devil is in the details, as European workers have long enjoyed unemployment benefits; streamlining such benefits might actually save the government money. That said, Germany’s low unemployment, to a significant extent, may be due to the fact that welfare benefits were curtailed in 2002 (with a social democrat as chancellor), providing an incentive for workers to join the workforce.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, October 04, 2018

US Bond Yields Positioned for Upside Acceleration / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Mike_Paulenoff

Ten-year Yield has climbed to a new post-July 2016 (1.32%) high at 3.17%, the highest yield since July 2011, over 7 years ago!

From a technical perspective, today's surge above May-Oct 2018 resistance at 3.11% is a reaction to very strong recent data showing strong ADP Payrolls for September (230,000 vs. 185,000 expected), and impressive ISM Non-manufacturing data across the Headline data (61.6 vs. 58 expected), as well as the sub-surveys in Business Activity, Prices, Orders and Employment for September.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, October 02, 2018

Global Central Banks Enter the Danger Zone / Interest-Rates / Central Banks

By: Michael_Pento

Investors are experiencing huge moves in commodities, currencies, equities and in sovereign debt across the globe. And now the fall has arrived. Expect the volatility currently witnessed in markets to only surge.

This is because global central banks have overwhelmingly turned hawkish in a vain attempt to gradually let the air out of the massive bubbles they have spent the last decade recreating. Unfortunately, that is not the nature of asset bubbles—they don’t end with a whimper--and they are about to burst in violent fashion.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, September 25, 2018

Whose Trillion is it Anyway? US Federal Government Shocker! / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: Andy_Sutton

The headline reads ‘Trump adds a trillion dollars to the national debt in 14 months’. Before you stop reading, give us a minute; this isn’t an article about Trump or politics for that matter. It’s about a process, a series of policies, and an approach that has been in place for decades now, irrespective of political parties. What we are going to give you are facts, not opinions. Those of you who read regularly should know us well enough to understand that we have no use for the ‘lesser of two evils / left-right paradigm’ approach to our Republic. Or what is left of it to be accurate.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, September 02, 2018

How Much does the UK Really Owe in Debt? / Interest-Rates / UK Debt

By: Dylan_Moran

We all hear horror stories about debt and how it’s piling up, but few people know the actual numbers. They’re left wondering how much the UK really owes in debt. Those figures don’t look good. In fact, it’s fair to say that the average Brit owes more than they ever have.

British households were spending around an average of £900 more than they earned during 2017, pushing personal debt into a deficit not seen since the credit boom of the 1980s.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, September 01, 2018

US Interest Rates - A Pound of Cure / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Peter_Schiff

This week, as investors and economists fixate on record highs set by major stock market indices, they have ignored much more significant developments that emerged from the Federal Reserve's annual meeting in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell delivered a speech that somehow was almost universally interpreted as a reiteration of his commitment to continue to raise rates throughout the next few years. "Steady as she goes" was the takeaway from just about any news outlet. But the Chairman's actual message was essentially the opposite of what the media reported. From my perspective, it provided evidence that President Trump has succeeded in getting Powell's mind right on the need for the Fed to continue to stimulate the economy, no matter how much evidence emerges that it is already over-stimulated.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, August 31, 2018

Recommendation for Bond Investors: Don’t Fight Financial Repression / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: F_F_Wiley

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released two supplemental reports this month—the first reveals budget scenarios it “did not have enough time” to include in June’s 2018 Long-Term Budget Outlook, and the second shows what needs to happen for policy makers to reach certain government debt targets.

I plan to post a few charts summarizing the new reports, but because I’m sounding off on bonds for now (or in a moment) and don’t need all the detail to support my argument, I’ll share only a short summary of the first report.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, August 26, 2018

How The Credit Market Is Doing in 2018 / Interest-Rates / Financial Markets 2018

By: Dylan_Moran

The credit market is one of the most significant markers of the global economy, to that point that many investors call it a figurative “canary in the mine.” In other words, when the credit market struggles, it means the rest of the economy is about to struggle as well.

Since the performance of the credit market can be a helpful guide in helping determining the health of other aspects of the economy, it's important to understand what it is--and how it's doing. To learn more about how the credit market is doing now, let's take a closer look at what the credit market is and how it is doing in 2018.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, August 21, 2018

US Treasury Bonds $TNX Curveball Update / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Rambus_Chartology

Over the last several months or so I’ve been writing about the bond market throwing us a possible curveball. Instead of continuing rising interest rate we may see falling rates. Today the $TNX, 10 year treasury yield finally broke below the neckline we’ve been following that started to developing back in January of this year. I’ve labeled the H&S top as an unbalanced H&S top as the price action formed a second right shoulder that was a small H&S top. A backtest to the neckline would now come into play around the 28.65 area.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, August 20, 2018

Turkey Debt Crisis is Not Contained / Interest-Rates / Turkey

By: Michael_Pento

During my last appearance on CNBC, before I was banned several years ago, I warned that the removal of massive and unprecedented monetary stimuli from global central banks would have to be done in a coordinated fashion. Otherwise, there would be the very real risk of currency and debt crises around the world.  

However, coordination among central banks is not what is happening. The Fed is miles ahead in its reversal of monetary stimulus, as it has already raised rates seven times; with two more 25bps rate hikes in the pipeline scheduled for later this year. It has also avowed to sell off two trillion dollars’ worth of debt off its balance sheet--while the rest of the world’s central banks are far behind in this monetary tightening course. This has led to a significant increase in the value of the US dollar.
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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, August 15, 2018

A Bullish Bond Argument That Hides in Plain Sight / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: F_F_Wiley

It’s been awhile since I advised anyone to load up on long Treasuries. The bearish bond narrative has been too strong for that, thanks largely to fiscal policy but also to near-4% unemployment rates, quantitative tightening and—maybe most threatening of all—tit-for-tat tariffs.

In fact, I challenge anyone to think of a time during the past two decades when bond bears (read: most mainstream commentators) have possessed a more compelling Powerpoint pack.

But maybe the powerful bear story has become overplayed, maybe it was fully or almost fully priced in by mid-May, when the 10-year Treasury yield reached a six-year high of 3.11%. If so, it might be a good time to revisit the argument that the secular bull is still intact, a time for contrarians to speak up.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, August 14, 2018

The Federal Reserve: Secretly Sticking It to Americans for Over 100 Years / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: MoneyMetals

In the aftermath of the 2008 Financial Crisis, the private Federal Reserve bank cartel was front and center as a target for public outrage.

Former U.S. Congressman Ron Paul’s "End the Fed" message suddenly resonated. Americans hated Fed officials bailing out the banksters – richly rewarding them for crooked and irresponsible behavior which helped create the crisis.

But years have passed. Americans have been enjoying the expansion stage of the next great bubble. The central planners at the Fed and their colleagues at the nation’s largest banks have been busy stimulating the real estate, equity, and bond markets.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, August 13, 2018

72% of the Base Interest Rate Rise Already Factored into Mortgage Fixed Rates / Interest-Rates / Mortgages

By: MoneyFacts

Moneyfacts UK Mortgage Trends Treasury Report data, not yet published, highlights that two-year fixed rates were already on the rise before the Bank of England’s announcement earlier this month, with the average two-year fixed rate having risen by 0.18% since January 2018.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, August 11, 2018

Greek Debt Tragedy is Far From Over / Interest-Rates / Eurozone Debt Crisis

By: Rodney_Johnson

Last week, Greece received $17 billion from its creditors, representing the final installment of the country’s third bailout since 2010.

This is the last one.

Really. Stop laughing.

There’s no doubt the Southern Mediterranean country has endured a lot of pain over the last eight years.
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Interest-Rates

Monday, August 06, 2018

Technical Analysis and Interest Rates Unchanged – Here We Go / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Chris_Vermeulen

The US Federal Reserve is one of the only central banks to attempt to raise rates consistently over the past few years, has possibly learned a very valuable lesson – no good comes from raising rates to the point of causing another market collapse.  The news that the US Fed will leave interest rates where they are, temporarily, is good news for a number of reasons.

First, this allows the markets to shake out weaker players and weaker components of the corporate world.  Where corporate debt levels are concerned, interest rates are tied to debt repayment liabilities and refinancing costs.  Firms that are unable to manage at current interest rates certainly would not be happy about rising rates.  This allows these corporations to either struggle to resolve their debt issues or collapse under the weight of their own debt.  This will also play out in the foreign markets as well.

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