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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Interest-Rates

Monday, February 13, 2017

Is the UK An Economy Built on Debt? / Interest-Rates / UK Debt

By: Submissions

It’s fair to say that many experts have been surprised by the performance of the British economy since the historic vote to part ways with the European Union last year. Initially pessimistic growth forecasts continue to be revised upwards, and the outlook seems to brighten by the day – albeit that we are still at the very early stages of what is an unprecedented action.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, February 11, 2017

Greece Debt Crisis Outrageous Malevolence / Interest-Rates / Eurozone Debt Crisis

By: Raul_I_Meijer

Earlier this week I was talking in Athens to a guy from Holland, who incidentally with a group of friends runs a great project on Lesbos taking care of some 1000 refugees in one of the camps there. But that’s another topic for another day. I was wondering in our conversation how it is possible that, as we both painfully acknowledged, people in Holland and Germany don’t know what has really happened in the Greek debt crisis. Or, rather, don’t know how it started.

That certainly is a big ugly stain on their media. And it threatens to lead to things even uglier than what we’ve seen so far. People there in Northern Europe really think the Greeks are taking them for a ride, that the hard-working and saving Dutch and Germans pay through the teeth for Greek extravaganza. It’s all one big lie, but one that suits the local politicians just fine.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, February 10, 2017

Brace Yourself, There May Be An Epic Collision Between Trump and Yellen / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: John_Mauldin

BY JARED DILLIAN : The FOMC recently held its first meeting since Trump took office. But before I get to that, I want to talk about the backdrop to the meeting… Trump’s relationship with Yellen and Yellen’s relationship with Trump.

Trump hasn’t had much good to say about Yellen. He said that her interest rate decisions were politically motivated. Hey, I was saying the same thing at the time. No disagreement out of me. No rate hikes for years, and now that Trump is elected, the Federal Reserve is suddenly keen on hiking with renewed vigor.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, February 02, 2017

Could Cars Be the Death of Us This Time Around? / Interest-Rates / Debt Crisis 2017

By: Harry_Dent

The shining star of the 2009-2016 recovery has been auto sales.

We weren’t surprised. In fact, we saw it coming. After all, cars are the last large purchase people make before stepping quietly into their years of increased saving and decreased spending. From around the age of 57 to 64, one task takes center stage: save for retirement. In the durable goods sector, housing peaks first around age 40, then furnishings at age 46. Only automobiles continue to grow after the peak in spending at age 46.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, January 31, 2017

US 10-Year Bond Yield Transitioning Out of Multi-Year Bear Market / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Mike_Paulenoff

My intermediate and longer term technical set-up work on 10 year U.S. Treasury YIELD argues that benchmark yield is in transition from a 35 year Bear Market (dominant downtrend) into a multi-year Bull Market (dominant uptrend).

From 1981, when 10 year yield peaked at 15.84% amid concerns about rampant, un-containable inflation and stagnant growth ("Stagflation") precipitated initially by the 1973 OPEC Oil Embargo, benchmark yield steadily and relentlessly declined to a post-Financial-Crisis 2016 low at 1.32% (see Charts 1 and 2).

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, January 25, 2017

TLT Update…US Bonds and Gold an Odd Couple / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Rambus_Chartology

Lets start by looking at a weekly chart for TLT, 20 year bond etf, which shows it built out a H&S top last summer. That H&S top is a reversal pattern that showed up at the end of its bull market which has been ongoing for many years. There is a big brown shaded support and resistance zone that has been offering support.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, January 24, 2017

2017’s Real Milestone, Or Why Interest Rates Can Never Go Back To Normal / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: John_Rubino

Forget about NAFTA or OPEC or TPP or crowd size or hand size or any other acronym or stat or concept that obsesses the financial press these days. Only two numbers actually matter.

The first is $20 trillion, which is the level the US federal debt will exceed sometime around June of this year. Here’s the current total as measured by the US Debt Clock:

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, January 24, 2017

Fed Monetary Policy Is Impotent Against These Trends / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: John_Mauldin

Chris Wood of CLSA has a marvelous newsletter called, aptly, GREED & fear. He began his January 5 issue talking about bond yields possibly bottoming out.

For perspective, he starts with this long-term view of the 10-year US Treasury yield.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, January 24, 2017

How Bond Market Investors Were Fooled Twice / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: EWI

The Commercials and Large Speculators are routinely on the opposite sides of trades

Most investors, including large groups of professional money managers, extrapolate financial trends into the future. So they're often completely caught off guard when a trend changes.

[Editor's Note: The text version of the story is below.]

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Interest-Rates

Monday, January 23, 2017

Building Societies are Winning the Mortgage Interest Rate War / Interest-Rates / Mortgages

By: MoneyFacts

With competition still fierce in the mortgage market and many banks claiming to launch the lowest products ever on their records, many borrowers could assume that the mortgage rates from these providers will be significantly lower than those offered elsewhere. However, Moneyfacts.co.uk research shows that building societies are the winners when it comes to the mortgage rate war.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, January 19, 2017

Trump Deficits Will Be Huge / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: Peter_Schiff

There is much we don't know about how the Trump presidency will play out. Will the Wall get built? Who will pay for it? Will it have at least some fencing? Will repeal and replace happen at exactly the same time? Will Trump throw a ceremonial switch? Will there be a Trump National Golf Course in Sochi? It's anyone's guess. But of one thing we can be fairly certain. President Trump is very likely to preside over the largest expansion of Federal budget deficits in our history. Trump has built his companies with debt and I'm sure he thinks he can do the same with the country. His annual budget deficits are likely going to be huge. This development will make a greater impact on the investment landscape than most on Wall Street can imagine.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, January 12, 2017

How Debt Differs in China, the US and Japan / Interest-Rates / China Debt Crisis

By: Dan_Steinbock

Unlike advanced economies, China remains better positioned to overcome its debt challenges, due to the nature of is debt, level of development and economic fundamentals. Change is coming – but after fall.

In recent months, China has managed to stabilize growth. Nevertheless, stabilization has required capital controls, continued lending and repeated interventions. Due to efforts to stabilize the renminbi, for instance, China’s foreign-exchange reserves fell to $3 trillion last month; the lowest since spring 2011.
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Interest-Rates

Sunday, January 08, 2017

China Potentially Threatens a Near Term Us Treasury Bond Market Short Squeeze! / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Gordon_T_Long

Problems in China are looming on top of an already very tenuous and misunderstood situation in the US Financial Markets. Additionally, Federal Reserve Policy has made the situation even more combustible!

As a result of a Trump Victory inspired bond market massacre there are now few places that a yield starved world can presently find better risk-adjusted yields than in US Treasuries. With China now being forced to sell their FX Reserves and thereby creating  the much needed supply so eagerly craved by foreign investors, it is also further depleting an already restricted EuroDollar pool required to buy this supply. There are consequences of this combination of shifting global parameters.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, January 04, 2017

Trumponomics Won’t Trump the Bond Market Bust / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Michael_Pento

Despite the millions of dollars Wall Street plowed into the Clinton campaign in vain, the financial industry has nevertheless now become downright giddy with the prospects of a Donald Trump presidency. The imperative question investors need to determine is will the Trump presidency be able to generate viable growth. And, if he cannot produce robust and sustainable growth imminently, are the markets now priced for perfection that simply may never arrive?

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, January 04, 2017

Increased Fiscal Spending Could Spell Debt Trouble for 2017 / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: John_Mauldin

Over the past 30 years, America’s economic growth and boom-bust market cycles have been fueled with abundant sources of cheap debt. Whether emerging markets or commodity-rich countries, there’s been no shortage of buyers of US debt.

This has allowed the US—and by extension its consumers—to borrow huge sums of capital to spend on fiscal items or for personal consumption. It was a rather symbiotic relationship from which both parties would benefit, even if longer term prosperity was being jeopardized.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, December 26, 2016

Moment of Truth for US Bonds / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Gary_Savage

Moment of Truth for Bonds

Bonds are severely oversold. There should be a bounce but if it’s weak, or doesn’t last very long then prepare for a crash. I’ve never seen a bubble yet that popped gracefully.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, December 25, 2016

Greece’s Debt Problem Has Reached a Dangerous Point / Interest-Rates / Eurozone Debt Crisis

By: John_Mauldin

BY ALLISON FEDIRKA : Before the Italian banking crisis and referendum, before Brexit… there was Greece. Greece’s debt crisis was really the first public crack in the European Union’s armor and one that has yet to be repaired.

Readers who want to understand why anti-EU sentiment and nationalism have developed in many of these countries don’t have to look at migration or other controversial topics. Simply look at Greece and how it has fared after adopting the EU’s austerity terms.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, December 25, 2016

I Bet We’ll Get Four or More Interest Rate Hikes Next Year / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: John_Mauldin

BY JARED DILLIAN : The fed funds target is now 0.50%–0.75%.1 Hooray!

The Fed is finally, after eight years, normalizing interest rates.

The timing is awfully interesting, though—what a coincidence that the rate hike comes right after the election!

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, December 24, 2016

The Italian Banking Crisis: No Free Lunch -- or Is There? / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2016

By: Ellen_Brown

On December 4, 2016, Italian voters rejected a referendum to amend their constitution to give the government more power, and the Italian prime minister resigned. The resulting chaos has pushed Italy's already-troubled banks into bankruptcy. First on the chopping block is the 500 year old Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA (BMP), the oldest surviving bank in the world and the third largest bank in Italy. The concern is that its loss could trigger the collapse of other banks and even of the eurozone itself.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, December 24, 2016

A Broken US Bond Market Bounce Beckons! / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Gordon_T_Long

Historical Correlations Give Us a Clue to What May Be Ahead!


A Falling Global Market Cap Trend Channel

The old adage that the "Trend is Your Friend" has proven to be the one that separates the winners from the losers. The key however is whether you recognize the right trend!

We are being possibly lulled into a false perception and belief of how good things appear if we solely look at the US equity rally. Yes it is temporarily rising but the 600# Gorilla is the Global Bond market and major problems are still lurking.

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