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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Interest-Rates

Saturday, December 21, 2019

Farewell Paul Volcker Hello Monetary Madness / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: Michael_Pento

God bless Paul Volcker. He was truly a one of a kind central banker and we probably won't see another one like him ever again. It took his extreme bravery to crush the inflation caused by the monetary recklessness of Arthur Burns and the fiscal profligacy of Presidents Johnson & Nixon. Raising interest rates to 20% by March 1980 was wildly unpopular at the time. But in the end, it was what the nation needed and paved the way for a long period of economic stability and prosperity.

Back in 1971 the world fully had developed a new monetary "technology". Governments learned that money need no longer be representative of prior efforts, or energy expended, or previous production, or have any real value whatsoever. It can be just created by a monetary magic wand; and done so without any baneful economic consequences.
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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, December 10, 2019

Central Planners: Out of Room and Running Out of Time / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: Michael_Pento

One would have to place their trust in unicorns, sasquatch, leprechauns, and the tooth fairy to believe the current economic construct is sustainable. You also need to be woefully ignorant of history. In fact, there has never been a nation that engaged in massive debt monetization and did not eventually face hyperinflation, depression, and mass chaos. There is simply no such thing as magic, and you can’t build an economy on the foundation of debt, asset bubbles, and unlimited fiat money printing.

Perhaps the reason why the market hasn’t imploded yet is that the developed world has coordinated this so-called “strategy” of unbridled central bank lunacy to engage in permanent ZIRP and QE. Therefore, a currency crisis has been averted so far. However, now that these money printers have gone all-in, the next recession or freeze-up in credit markets cannot be averted by a dovish turnaround in monetary policies, as governments already have the gas pedal to the monetary and fiscal floor. The globe now has $255 trillion in debt, and the U.S alone is adding one trillion to that pile each year. The Fed is back in QE, along with the ECB and BOJ. And, no central bank in the developed world has room any longer to cut rates enough to boost consumption. 

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, December 04, 2019

Elephant in the Room: Why Nobody Talks About Ballooning Federal Deficits / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: MoneyMetals

The presidential race will mesmerize Americans over the next 11 months. The country hasn’t been this polarized since the Civil War.

Voters on the left desperately want a story which undermines support for President Trump. They are also searching for a candidate who can actually win.

Many Republicans are outraged about the Deep State and corporate media campaign obsession with unseating a duly elected president – and they worry an avowed socialist could win the Democratic primary and, just possibly, the general election.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, November 29, 2019

Hidden Failure of SIFI Banks / Interest-Rates / Financial Crisis 2019

By: Jim_Willie_CB

Big systemically important banks could be in failure mode. A small group of big Western banks are in deep trouble. The officials might keep it all secret, working feverishly behind the curtains to patch their myriad holes with paper. These SIFI banks are likely major recipients of USFed overnight aid in the form of Repurchase (REPO) and Permanent Open Market Operations (POMO) activity, plus gigantic hidden funny money infusions. Beware the advent of chaos, with lost control. Possibly the main markets will remain tame under tight controls, while the precious metals prices zoom to multiples higher. Always keep in mind then when the POMO volume rises significantly, it means that QE has returned. When the volume is tremendous, it means that Infinite QE is here. Since Chairman Powell admitted in May that QE was a permanent feature with monetary policy, we must conclude that we are at the doorstep of Infinite QE Forever. Thus the Gold price will be required to double and the Silver price triple. All in time. It is written; it will be done.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, November 22, 2019

FOMC Minutes Reveal an Important Shift That’s Key for Gold, Too / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Yesterday, the Fed released minutes from its last meeting. They show an important shift among the meeting participants. In September, the FOMC turned more worried about the state of the U.S. economy, while just six weeks later in October, the Committee felt more optimistic again. Indeed, the central bankers noted that certain downside risks had softened:

Uncertainties associated with trade tensions as well as geopolitical risks had eased somewhat, though they remained elevated (…) Some risks were seen to have eased a bit, although they remained elevated. There were some tentative signs that trade tensions were easing, the probability of a no-deal Brexit was judged to have lessened, and some other geopolitical tensions had diminished.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, November 19, 2019

Interest Rates Heading Zero or Negative to Prop Up Debt Bubble / Interest-Rates / Negative Interest Rates

By: MoneyMetals

Mike Gleason: It is my privilege now to welcome back the one and the only Gerald Celente, publisher of the renowned Trends Journal. Mr. Celente is a frequent guest on the Money Metals Podcast and is perhaps the most well-known trends forecaster in the world. And it's always great to have him on with us.

Gerald, thanks for the time again today, and welcome back.

Gerald Celente: Oh, my pleasure. Thanks for having me on.

Mike Gleason: Well, Gerald, since we spoke last in August, the Federal Reserve has begun propping up the repo markets, and they resumed buying government debt. They tell us the program on bond purchases should in no way be confused with prior bond purchasing programs, also known as Quantitative Easing. They don't want us to worry about it. Just a little extra boost for an economy struggling with some fears over trade and a minor temporary problem in the repo markets is what they're saying. The only trouble is that hundreds of billions of dollars are involved so far, and it could wind up being trillions. So once again, the Fed is shoveling freshly-printed cash at banks and the Treasury Department. What is your guess as to why the Fed has engaged in this stealth bailout, and why aren't more people talking about it?

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, November 14, 2019

Is Yield Emerging Out Of A 38-Year Bear Market? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Mike_Paulenoff

Yield has been in a bear market for 38 years. Is that about to end?

The 10-Year Treasury Yield has backed up from the Sep-Oct lows at 1.43% and 1.51% to a high at 1.97% last week. Is this a mere recovery "rally" in a still dominant 38-year bear market? Or is it a secondary low -- i.e., double-bottom -- 3+ years after the July 2016 historic low at 1.32%?

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, November 13, 2019

What to Do NOW in Case of a Future Banking System Breakdown / Interest-Rates / Global Financial System

By: MoneyMetals

The banking system may not be as sound we’ve been led to believe. It continues to get propped up through central bank interventions, which strongly suggests it wouldn’t be able to stand on its own.

Last Thursday, the Federal Reserve injected another $115 billion into financial markets via “temporary operations.” The Fed is targeting the repo market in particular, through which banks lend to each other on an overnight basis.

For some reason, banks have grown weary of committing liquidity to each other in what should be one of the safest lending markets on the planet.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, November 12, 2019

Fed Can't See the Bubbles Through the Lather / Interest-Rates / Liquidity Bubble

By: Michael_Pento

Recently, there has been a parade of central bankers along with their lackeys on Wall Street coming on the financial news networks and desperately trying to convince investors that there are no bubbles extant in the world today. Indeed, the Fed sees no economic or market imbalances anywhere that should give perma-bulls cause for concern. You can listen to Jerome Powell’s upbeat assessment of the situation in his own words during the latest FOMC press conference here. The Fed Chair did, however, manage to acknowledge that corporate debt levels are in fact a bit on the high side. But he added that “we have been monitoring it carefully and taken appropriate steps.” By taking appropriate steps to reduce debt levels Powell must mean slashing interest rates and going back into QE. The problem with that strategy being that is exactly what caused the debt binge and overleveraged condition of corporations in the first place.
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Interest-Rates

Thursday, November 07, 2019

The Fed Is Chasing Its Own Tail; It Doesn’t Care What You Think / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: Kelsey_Williams

Did you ever watch a dog get caught up in the act of chasing its own tail? It continues to run in a circle as the object of its fascination and intention continues to elude it. The action is quite comical, almost hilarious.

The expectations of the animal are both foolish and amusing. You might feel inclined to want to communicate the unrealistic expectations to the engaged participant, but you know your efforts would be in vain.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, November 07, 2019

Shades of 2007–2008 - Modern Central Banking Is More Vulnerable than We Think / Interest-Rates / Central Banks

By: John_Mauldin

Banks are a place where you store your cash, right? Not exactly.

When you deposit money in a checking or savings account, you aren’t just letting the bank hold it on your behalf. You are lending the bank that money and the bank is borrowing it.

That’s why deposits show as a liability on the bank’s balance sheet.

We think of banks as lenders, and they are, but they’re also borrowers. They make money by lending at higher rates than they pay as borrowers, and by leveraging their deposits via fractional reserves.
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Interest-Rates

Monday, November 04, 2019

The Fed’s Policy Is Like Swatting Flies with Nuclear Weapons / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: John_Mauldin

The Federal Open Market Committee had an unscheduled meeting on October 4. That happens occasionally and they often don’t reveal it occurred until the next regular meeting. That would mean Oct. 30, in this case.

But for some reason (and you can bet they had a reason) they decided to announce this one on Oct. 11.

In between, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in an Oct. 8 speech that the Fed would soon start growing its balance sheet again.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, November 02, 2019

Fed’s Own Forecasts Again Dead Wrong as QE4 Accelerates / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: MoneyMetals

Precious metals markets enter November’s trading with bulls eying a potential year-end rally.

Gold and silver prices did manage to post gains on Wednesday and Thursday after the Federal Reserve announced a quarter point rate cut. But the Fed followed up its move with language suggesting interest rate policy is now on pause.

News Anchor #1: The Federal Reserve cut the benchmark rate by a quarter of a percentage point. It's now at 1.5% to 1.75%. The rate cuts come on a global slowdown; they say. Also muted inflation. Now the Fed does signal in this statement a pause for future rate cuts. The Federal Reserve statement changes the words from “act as appropriate” to “assess.”

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, October 31, 2019

What Has Freaked Out The US Fed? / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Chris_Vermeulen

The US Fed cut rates again by 25 basis points, the third time this year. Prior to the start of 2019, the US Fed gave guidance that 3 to 4 more rate increases were planned for 2019.  What the heck happened to the US Fed and what has them so freaked out that they completely changed direction on their expectations for the US and Global economy so quickly? Source: Yahoo Finance

It is painfully obvious to anyone paying attention that the US Fed expected the many years of near-zero interest rates between 2009 and 2015 to act as a fuel for future growth.  The problem was that no real growth materialized until just before the 2016 US Presidential elections – and even that was relatively muted.  The US Dollar had continued to rally from July 2011 lows well into the 2016 election date.  The expectations for the US economy hinged on who won the election.  After President Trump won, the markets started an immediate rally expecting business-friendly policies and government.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, October 30, 2019

Why Nobody Chants “End the Fed” Anymore / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: MoneyMetals

Americans hated it when the Federal Reserve handed trillions of dollars to crooked Wall Street banks following the 2008 Financial Crisis. Politicians were confronted about the merits of central banking and bailouts.

For the first time in history, college students were chanting “End the Fed” at campaign rallies as Ron Paul took the central bank to task during his presidential campaigns.

Virtually everyone in America vehemently opposed the central bank handing piles of cash to the same bankers whose greed and fraud had caused the Financial Crisis.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, October 28, 2019

What if the Fed Stops Cutting Interest Rates? / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

Fed rate cuts have been the driving force of the recent gains in precious metals.

This is not a surprise to our readers as since 2018 we argued that a shift in Fed policy from rate hikes to rate cuts would springboard the next big move. History argued the same.

The market is showing a roughly 90% chance the Fed will cut rates this week which indicates the market has essentially already priced in the rate cut.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, October 26, 2019

The Fed’s “Not QE” Is Morphing into “QE4ever” / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: MoneyMetals

Another week, another new and expanded repo market intervention by the Federal Reserve. On Thursday, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York intervened twice with fresh liquidity injections. Fed officials raised their offerings for overnight repos up from $75 billion to a staggering $120 billion.

This comes on top of the $60 billion per month in Treasury bill purchases that will extend well into next year and possibly beyond. Over the past month alone, the Fed's balance sheet has soared by $200 billion.

You might think numbers like these should be quite alarming to investors and to anyone who holds U.S. dollars. But the strange thing about these Fed interventions is that hardly anyone seems alarmed. There’s no sense of rising risk being priced into the stock market. And the mainstream media is barely even mentioning these massive transfers of paper wealth.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, October 22, 2019

A Look at Peak Debt / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis 2019

By: Harry_Dent

David Stockman, Dr. Lacy Hunt and I agreed on a lot of things last week at the seventh annual Irrational Economic Summit in D.C.

In the September issue of Boom & Bust, I talked about corporate debt being the greatest threat globally this time around. The worst is in the emerging world that used cheap printed dollars from the developed countries, primarily the U.S., to fund a debt binge concentrated in the corporate sectors. But our corporate sector also added a lot to their debt and only 39% of their bonds are investment grade, with 39% BBB and 22% junk.
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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, October 22, 2019

How High Debt Affects Bond Interest Rates / Interest-Rates / International Bond Market

By: Harry_Dent

The only Phd economist I allow to speak each year at the Irrational Economic Summit is Dr. Lacy Hunt. (You can watch his presentation from this year’s conference here.) Lacy can take that complex science and still see the forest for the trees. He can still find reality from all of that great theory to real-life outcomes.

It also helps that he advises a $4 billion bond fund at Housington Management and has to get the reality of bond interest rates right or face the consequences – which he has for this entire boom!
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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, October 22, 2019

The Coming Great Global Debt Reset / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis 2019

By: Richard_Mills

In the first quarter of 2019, global debt hit $246.5 trillion.

Encouraged by lower interest rates, governments went on a borrowing binge as they ramped up spending, adding $3 trillion to world debt in Q1 alone. It reverses a trend that started in the beginning of 2018, of reducing debt burdens, when global debt reached its highest on record, $248 trillion.

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