Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Monday, June 13, 2011
Central Bankruptcy, Why QE3 is Inevitable / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing
By: Michael_Pento
As the U.S. economy seemingly limps out of the Great Recession most analysts now assume that the Federal Reserve will soon join the tide of other central banks and bring an end to the current era of unprecedented monetary expansion. Markets expect that Fed will begin withdrawing liquidity this summer, not too long after this latest round of the quantitative easing comes to an end. But this is simply a delusion.
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Sunday, June 12, 2011
It’s The Debt, Dummy / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: James_Quinn
I think charts tell a story that allows you to disregard the lies being spewed by those in power. Below are four charts that tell the truth about our current predicament. The first is from http://www.mybudget360.com/. The austerity and debt reduction storyline being sold by the MSM is a crock. The total amount of mortgage debt outstanding peaked at $14.6 trillion in 2008. The total amount of consumer debt (credit cards, auto loans, student, boats) outstanding peaked at $2.6 trillion in 2008. Today, mortgage debt outstanding stands at $13.8 trillion, while consumer debt stands at $2.4 trillion. Therefore, total consumer debt has declined by $1 trillion in the last three years.
Saturday, June 11, 2011
Time to Get Outraged by the Banks, Is It Time to Buy a House? / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis
By: John_Mauldin
This week we look at data from the Bank of International Settlements, by which (if someone does a lot of work) you can figure out how much US banks have written in credit default swaps to banks in Europe on Greek, Irish, and Portuguese debt. The details should not make you happy. I meditate on whether one should buy a house now, and then discuss "the way out" of all this mess and why we will Muddle Through. Oh, and I'll ask you for help on yet another book project, on creating jobs. And all while trying to finish early enough to go to dinner. So let's get started.
Saturday, June 11, 2011
Revisiting Bernanke’s QE2 October 2010 Speech / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing
By: Asha_Bangalore
The Fed will complete the QE2 purchase plan of $600 billion securities as of June 2011, which is not too far ahead. But there is no assurance that self-sustained economic growth adequate to bring down the unemployment and stabilize the housing market will occur. In fact, the nature of recent economic reports inclusive of the ISM manufacturing survey, auto sales, retail sales excluding auto and gasoline, soft payroll growth, elevated unemployment rate, decelerating factory production, and continued slump in the housing market suggest that economy still needs watching over and support after nearly eight quarters of economic growth.
Friday, June 10, 2011
Bernanke's Credible Irresponsibility: The Logic Behind Cheap Money / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Ben_Traynor
Does Ben Bernanke want us to trust him? Maybe not…
IN THE murky realm of economic policy, things are not always what they seem.
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Friday, June 10, 2011
Why US Debt Ceiling Limit Will be Raised / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: Submissions
Our federal government is spending about $10 billion per day of which about $4 billion is borrowed. If we continue on this path eventually any GDP growth will pale in comparison to the growing debt. We will reach a time when our growing debt will choke off any chance of economic growth. We are in dark uncharted waters. Our debt continues to grow 2-3 times faster than our GDP. This course, if unchecked, will run us right up on the rocks of bankruptcy.
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Thursday, June 09, 2011
Stealth Theft of Wealth by Means of Low Interest Rates and High Inflation Continues / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Bank of England left UK interest rates on hold at 0.5% (for 2 years and 3 months) which compares against an official CPI inflation rate of 4.5% that illustrates the continuing UK government policy (regardless of which party is in power) for the stealth theft of wealth from workers and savers so as to funnel cash onto the balance sheets of bankrupt banks and for the financing of government deficit spending (buying of votes).
Thursday, June 09, 2011
U.S. Longer-Term Interest Rates Surprise Rise Coming / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Mike_Paulenoff
Let's have a look at the bond market from the perspective of 10-year yield, which apart from signs that "the world is falling apart economically," nonetheless, is warning me that longer-term interest rates in the U.S. are vulnerable to a surprise on the upside.
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Wednesday, June 08, 2011
QE2 Has Failed, Time To Move On / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing
By: Mike_Whitney
Was Friday's job's report the final nail in the coffin for QE2?
It should be. After all, how is Fed chairman Ben Bernanke going to convince people that his bond purchasing program is working when payrolls rose by a measly 54,000 and the unemployment rate climbed back to 9.1 percent? It'll take a lot more than fast-talk to sell that load of horse-manure. The truth is, QE2 has been a total bust and the BLS's report is just the icing on the cake. Just look at the data; it's as grim as anything we've seen in the last two years. Here's a clip from an article titled "Disastrous US jobs report points to deepening slump" that will give the reader some idea of how bad things really are:
Wednesday, June 08, 2011
Bernanke - Accommodative Monetary Policy is Still Necessary / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Asha_Bangalore
If financial markets were expecting hints about QE3, Bernanke did not offer it in today's speech. However, he noted that "the Committee also continues to anticipate that economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate for an extended period."
Tuesday, June 07, 2011
The Global Debt Crisis, How We Got In It, and How to Get Out / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis
By: Ellen_Brown
Countries everywhere are facing debt crises today, precipitated by the credit collapse of 2008. Public services are being slashed and public assets are being sold off, in a futile attempt to balance budgets that can’t be balanced because the money supply itself has shrunk. Governments usually get the blame for excessive spending, but governments did not initiate the crisis. The collapse was in the banking system, and in the credit that it is responsible for creating and sustaining.
Tuesday, June 07, 2011
What May Trigger QE3? / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing
By: Asha_Bangalore
Fed President Plosser, a voting member of the FOMC, indicated in his speech in Helsinki today that the "hurdle for QE3" is high. Chairman Bernanke has voiced a similar opinion. There is considerable ink that has been devoted to the soft patch the U.S economy is current experiencing which almost always includes mention of the Fed's view that justification for QE3 is more stringent than QE2. We have been mulling this thought around for a few days and here is the checklist we think is a useful guide to what may trigger QE3.
Sunday, June 05, 2011
CME Lowers Treasury Bond Futures Margins, Signals Shift In Market Direction / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Tony_Pallotta
The CME has been busy the past few months "adjusting" margins. I emphasize adjusting because I suspect it is not in the interest of protecting the speculator from financial ruin or ensuring true price discovery by removing excess speculation.
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Sunday, June 05, 2011
IMF Prepares to Eat Belarus Alive / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis
By: Pravda
The government of Belarus applied to the International Monetary Fund for a stabilization loan. The work of the IMF mission will last during June 1-14. Belarus is not ready either for large-scale liberalization in the currency sphere, or for a considerable reduction of state spending.
Those were the requirements, which the IMF previously set forth as a condition to give a loan to Belarus. The National Bank of Belarus raised the refinancing rate by tow percentage points - up to 16% per annum. The bank has thus met one of the requirements of the international financial organization.
Saturday, June 04, 2011
If Soros Can Bust BoE, Greece Can Bankrupt ECB / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis
By: Andrew_Butter
US And EU Debt Crises Compared - The recent events in Greece are reminiscent of when Soros “busted” the Bank of England. That crisis was caused by an artificial peg of the Pound to the Euro which restricted the ability of UK to print money to inflate away their debts. The current crisis is caused by the inability Greece (and Ireland, and Portugal, and Spain, and perhaps Italy), to print and inflate away their sovereign debt, since it is denominated in Euros.
Saturday, June 04, 2011
Emerging Market Central Banks Continue to Raise Interest Rates / Interest-Rates / Central Banks
By: CentralBankNews
The past week in central banking saw monetary policy announcements from 10 different central banks. Of those announcing interest rate decisions, the following central banks increased their main policy interest rates: Colombia +25bps to 4.00%, Belarus +200bps to 16.00%, Kenya +25bps to 6.25%, Jordan +25bps to 4.50%, and Thailand +3.00%.
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Friday, June 03, 2011
U.S. Treasury Bond Market Bears Continue to Lose / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Adam_Brochert
I understand fundamental convictions when investing. Fundamental convictions have caused me to lose lots of money in the past. What is the point of being intellectually superior in your own mind and then losing money trading? Does it really make you feel better in the end to "be right" and lose money? Personally, I have decided it is better to be agnostic and make money. It has been a journey, believe me.
Thursday, June 02, 2011
Russia’s Interest Rate Hike is Negative for US Dollar / Interest-Rates / US Dollar
By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis
While the US markets were closed to observe Memorial Day, Russia’s central bank acted to raise interest rates to cool inflation. This may have ordinarily registered as a normal event for a central bank, but nothing is normal when the US central bank, the Federal Reserve, refuses to hike rates in the United States.
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Thursday, June 02, 2011
Near-term Correction in U.S. Treasury Bond Market Yield / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Mike_Paulenoff
If the upmove in 10-year yield from the October 2010 low at 2.33% to the February 2011 high at 3.74% represents the first upleg of a new bull phase (higher yield), then all of the action since the February high is a correction that should be bought ahead of a resumption of the prior upmove.
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Wednesday, June 01, 2011
Why Greece Debt Default Could be Worse than the Lehman Collapse / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis
By: Money_Morning
Martin Hutchinson writes:
The 2008 collapse of Lehman Bros Holdings Inc. (PINK: LEHMQ) ignited a financial meltdown that resulted in widespread bank failures and caused the Dow Jones Industrial Average to lose 18% of its value in just one week.
Yet a Greek default - which (even with a bailout) becomes increasingly likely with each passing day - would actually be much, much worse in many respects.
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