Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Friday, June 10, 2011
Bernanke's Credible Irresponsibility: The Logic Behind Cheap Money / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Ben_Traynor
Does Ben Bernanke want us to trust him? Maybe not…
IN THE murky realm of economic policy, things are not always what they seem.
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Friday, June 10, 2011
Why US Debt Ceiling Limit Will be Raised / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: Submissions
Our federal government is spending about $10 billion per day of which about $4 billion is borrowed. If we continue on this path eventually any GDP growth will pale in comparison to the growing debt. We will reach a time when our growing debt will choke off any chance of economic growth. We are in dark uncharted waters. Our debt continues to grow 2-3 times faster than our GDP. This course, if unchecked, will run us right up on the rocks of bankruptcy.
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Thursday, June 09, 2011
Stealth Theft of Wealth by Means of Low Interest Rates and High Inflation Continues / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Bank of England left UK interest rates on hold at 0.5% (for 2 years and 3 months) which compares against an official CPI inflation rate of 4.5% that illustrates the continuing UK government policy (regardless of which party is in power) for the stealth theft of wealth from workers and savers so as to funnel cash onto the balance sheets of bankrupt banks and for the financing of government deficit spending (buying of votes).
Thursday, June 09, 2011
U.S. Longer-Term Interest Rates Surprise Rise Coming / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Mike_Paulenoff
Let's have a look at the bond market from the perspective of 10-year yield, which apart from signs that "the world is falling apart economically," nonetheless, is warning me that longer-term interest rates in the U.S. are vulnerable to a surprise on the upside.
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Wednesday, June 08, 2011
QE2 Has Failed, Time To Move On / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing
By: Mike_Whitney
Was Friday's job's report the final nail in the coffin for QE2?
It should be. After all, how is Fed chairman Ben Bernanke going to convince people that his bond purchasing program is working when payrolls rose by a measly 54,000 and the unemployment rate climbed back to 9.1 percent? It'll take a lot more than fast-talk to sell that load of horse-manure. The truth is, QE2 has been a total bust and the BLS's report is just the icing on the cake. Just look at the data; it's as grim as anything we've seen in the last two years. Here's a clip from an article titled "Disastrous US jobs report points to deepening slump" that will give the reader some idea of how bad things really are:
Wednesday, June 08, 2011
Bernanke - Accommodative Monetary Policy is Still Necessary / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Asha_Bangalore
If financial markets were expecting hints about QE3, Bernanke did not offer it in today's speech. However, he noted that "the Committee also continues to anticipate that economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate for an extended period."
Tuesday, June 07, 2011
The Global Debt Crisis, How We Got In It, and How to Get Out / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis
By: Ellen_Brown
Countries everywhere are facing debt crises today, precipitated by the credit collapse of 2008. Public services are being slashed and public assets are being sold off, in a futile attempt to balance budgets that can’t be balanced because the money supply itself has shrunk. Governments usually get the blame for excessive spending, but governments did not initiate the crisis. The collapse was in the banking system, and in the credit that it is responsible for creating and sustaining.
Tuesday, June 07, 2011
What May Trigger QE3? / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing
By: Asha_Bangalore
Fed President Plosser, a voting member of the FOMC, indicated in his speech in Helsinki today that the "hurdle for QE3" is high. Chairman Bernanke has voiced a similar opinion. There is considerable ink that has been devoted to the soft patch the U.S economy is current experiencing which almost always includes mention of the Fed's view that justification for QE3 is more stringent than QE2. We have been mulling this thought around for a few days and here is the checklist we think is a useful guide to what may trigger QE3.
Sunday, June 05, 2011
CME Lowers Treasury Bond Futures Margins, Signals Shift In Market Direction / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Tony_Pallotta
The CME has been busy the past few months "adjusting" margins. I emphasize adjusting because I suspect it is not in the interest of protecting the speculator from financial ruin or ensuring true price discovery by removing excess speculation.
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Sunday, June 05, 2011
IMF Prepares to Eat Belarus Alive / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis
By: Pravda
The government of Belarus applied to the International Monetary Fund for a stabilization loan. The work of the IMF mission will last during June 1-14. Belarus is not ready either for large-scale liberalization in the currency sphere, or for a considerable reduction of state spending.
Those were the requirements, which the IMF previously set forth as a condition to give a loan to Belarus. The National Bank of Belarus raised the refinancing rate by tow percentage points - up to 16% per annum. The bank has thus met one of the requirements of the international financial organization.
Saturday, June 04, 2011
If Soros Can Bust BoE, Greece Can Bankrupt ECB / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis
By: Andrew_Butter
US And EU Debt Crises Compared - The recent events in Greece are reminiscent of when Soros “busted” the Bank of England. That crisis was caused by an artificial peg of the Pound to the Euro which restricted the ability of UK to print money to inflate away their debts. The current crisis is caused by the inability Greece (and Ireland, and Portugal, and Spain, and perhaps Italy), to print and inflate away their sovereign debt, since it is denominated in Euros.
Saturday, June 04, 2011
Emerging Market Central Banks Continue to Raise Interest Rates / Interest-Rates / Central Banks
By: CentralBankNews
The past week in central banking saw monetary policy announcements from 10 different central banks. Of those announcing interest rate decisions, the following central banks increased their main policy interest rates: Colombia +25bps to 4.00%, Belarus +200bps to 16.00%, Kenya +25bps to 6.25%, Jordan +25bps to 4.50%, and Thailand +3.00%.
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Friday, June 03, 2011
U.S. Treasury Bond Market Bears Continue to Lose / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Adam_Brochert
I understand fundamental convictions when investing. Fundamental convictions have caused me to lose lots of money in the past. What is the point of being intellectually superior in your own mind and then losing money trading? Does it really make you feel better in the end to "be right" and lose money? Personally, I have decided it is better to be agnostic and make money. It has been a journey, believe me.
Thursday, June 02, 2011
Russia’s Interest Rate Hike is Negative for US Dollar / Interest-Rates / US Dollar
By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis
While the US markets were closed to observe Memorial Day, Russia’s central bank acted to raise interest rates to cool inflation. This may have ordinarily registered as a normal event for a central bank, but nothing is normal when the US central bank, the Federal Reserve, refuses to hike rates in the United States.
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Thursday, June 02, 2011
Near-term Correction in U.S. Treasury Bond Market Yield / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Mike_Paulenoff
If the upmove in 10-year yield from the October 2010 low at 2.33% to the February 2011 high at 3.74% represents the first upleg of a new bull phase (higher yield), then all of the action since the February high is a correction that should be bought ahead of a resumption of the prior upmove.
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Wednesday, June 01, 2011
Why Greece Debt Default Could be Worse than the Lehman Collapse / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis
By: Money_Morning
Martin Hutchinson writes:
The 2008 collapse of Lehman Bros Holdings Inc. (PINK: LEHMQ) ignited a financial meltdown that resulted in widespread bank failures and caused the Dow Jones Industrial Average to lose 18% of its value in just one week.
Yet a Greek default - which (even with a bailout) becomes increasingly likely with each passing day - would actually be much, much worse in many respects.
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Tuesday, May 31, 2011
Record Low Interest Rates Triggers Corporate Bonds Issuance Stampede / Interest-Rates / Corporate Bonds
By: Money_Morning
David Zeiler writes:
With interest rates at or near historic lows, companies have been issuing corporate bonds at a breathtaking pace, setting a weekly record this month.
Excluding financial services companies, corporate borrowing for the week ending May 20 reached $29.7 billion, which beat the previous weekly record of $29.04 billion set last September.
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Monday, May 30, 2011
Euro Debt Crisis, Greece, Portugal, Spain Debts Are Unpayable / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis
By: Bob_Chapman
We hope all of our appearances on Greek TV, radio and in the press have helped the educational process and to allow the Greeks to identify who the real culprits are, and what to do about it. It has just been over a year since this tragedy became reality, but we reported on Greece and Italy ten years ago. They both bent the rules to enter the euro zone. We knew then that Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase were assisting them by creating credit default swaps. There were a few European journalist who reported on the issue, but the elitists control the media and few noticed that Greece and Italy were beyond bogus.
Monday, May 30, 2011
Japan Shows How to Defuse Debt Time Bomb / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis
By: Ellen_Brown
[T]hreatening to default should not be a partisan issue. In view of all the hazards it entails, one wonders why any responsible person would even flirt with the idea. - Alan S. Blinder, Princeton professor of economics, former vice chairman of the Federal Reserve
A game of Russian roulette is being played with the national debt ceiling. Fire the wrong chamber of the gun, and the result could be the second Great Depression.
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Monday, May 30, 2011
Shorting U.S. Treasury Bonds, Wither TBT / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Peter_Navarro
A loyal reader asked me about TBT – the exchange traded fund to short the long bond. As you may remember, I was very bullish on TBT last year; but it turned out to be one of my worst trades.
The best thing to do when a trade goes the wrong way is to learn from it. In this case, TBT serves a dual function for me – as both a potential trade as well as a leading indicator of the business cycle.