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Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Interest-Rates

Monday, September 17, 2007

Net Commericials and the FOMC Interest Rate Meeting / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: James_West

Everybody is anticipating next week's FOMC decision on federal funds target rate, due this Tuesday, Sept. 18. As of last Friday, according to the 30-day Federal Funds futures, there is a 42% probability of a 25-basis point rate decrease versus a 58% probability of a 50-basis point rate decrease. In other words, a rate-cut is priced into the market already. The only question is: will the Fed cut by 25-basis points or 50-basis points. From the Funds futures, we are leaning towards a 50-basis point cut, but only slightly.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, September 17, 2007

Bernanke's No-Win Interest Rate Decision / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Money_and_Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMartin Weiss and Mike Larson write: We feel sorry for Ben Bernanke. He didn't create the sputtering, explosion-prone tanker truck he's trying to maneuver.

Nor did he get any training on how to shift gears.

But he's certainly getting plenty of not-so-subtle prods and catcalls from a diverse group of back-seat drivers.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, September 17, 2007

Bernanke and US Interest Rates - Between A Rock And A Hard Place / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Captain_Hook

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleBernanke is an academic, and he acts like one, relying on the safety of flawed models all too often. And all too often, it could be argued this is keeping him behind the curve in terms of official measures, looking at backward indicators in setting future policy. Greenspan on the other hand operated more like he came from the school of hard knocks (like a streetwise gangster), where some (neocon types) would argued he had a real feel for what need be done, and was customarily ahead of the curve in official policy measures, or backroom deals for that matter, whatever would get the job done.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, September 15, 2007

Tightening Money - US Interest Rate Cut Not a Done Deal / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Brian_Bloom

Its one thing for the Central Bank to “liquefy” the commercial banks, it's another for the commercial banks to on-lend their cash.

Right now, the commercial banks are so nervous about what is unknown regarding the depth of the sub-prime mortgage debacle that they are not even lending to each other. That's why the Libor rate (London Interbank Offer Rate) has spiked.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, September 14, 2007

Interest Rates & Investing - Investing Simplified – Part One / Interest-Rates / Learning to Invest

By: Investmentscore.com

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIf you were playing a competitive game of chess for a grand prize of a million dollars, would you ask your opponent what strategic move you should take next? No. So why do investors and analysts ridicule and blame the banks for offering poor advice on the future direction of interest rates? If a bank is going to lend you money for their profit, what is their incentive to give advice that is in your best possible interest?

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, September 13, 2007

Fed Policy on Asset Price Bubbles Inflation and Burst / Interest-Rates / Liquidity Bubble

By: Paul_L_Kasriel

Best Financial Markets Analysis Article

Is Mishkin Mishuga* about Asymmetric Monetary Policy Responses?

In his treatise delivered at the Fed's recent Jackson Hole retreat ( Housing and the Monetary Transmission Mechanism ), Fed Governor Mishkin hues to the Greenspan party line of an asymmetric monetary policy response to asset-price bubbles. That is, monetary policy should not be used to prevent asset-price bubbles, but rather should be used to mitigate the effects on real economic performance from the bursting of the price bubbles.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, September 12, 2007

Rise in Mortgage Interest Rates To Impact UK House Prices / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The ongoing credit crunch continued to bite into the mortgage banking sector as two large UK banks announced a rise in their mortgage interest rates, this despite the Bank of England pumping extra liquidity into the money markets and continuing signs that UK Interest Rates have peaked.

Both the Abbey and Halifax have announced rises in their tracker mortgage interest rates of .2% for new borrowers. Other financial institutions are expected to follow suit with further rises expected later this year and into 2008.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, September 12, 2007

Central Banks Reaction to the Credit Crunch - Fraud and Folly / Interest-Rates / Credit Crunch

By: Adrian_Ash

Best Financial Markets Analysis Article"...Given how the Fed has reacted to the credit crunch so far, a Nobel Prize for Dr. Bernanke now seems out of the question..."

"IT IS A FRAUD to accept what you cannot repay," said Publilius Syrus way back in the first century BC.

But Syrus was merely a Roman hack...and a freed slave to boot. So what would he know about collateralized loan obligations? No more or less than today's Bank of England , perhaps.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, September 11, 2007

US Heads for Recession as Foreign Investors Rush for the Exit from US Dollar Holdings / Interest-Rates / Credit Crunch

By: Mike_Whitney

Best Financial Markets Analysis Article"Credit booms do not end in inflation as most people believe. Credit booms ARE inflation that end in deflation. This credit boom is not any different. ”   Mike Shedlock , “Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis”  

The days of the dollar as the world's “reserve currency” may be drawing to a close. In August, foreign central banks and governments dumped a whopping 3.8% of their holdings of US debt. Rising unemployment and the ongoing housing slump have triggered fears of a recession sending wary foreign investors running for the exits. China, Japan and Taiwan have been leading the sell off which has caused the steepest decline since 1992.  

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, September 11, 2007

Would You Rather Have a Interest Rate Cut or a Strong Economy? / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Hans_Wagner

Many investors seeking to beat the market are expecting a Federal Funds rate cut on September 18, 2007 as the Fed Funds Futures market is predicting at least a 25 basis point decrease. Also, it is likely that the rate cut has already been factored into the stock market. Recently, instead of focusing on the strength of the economy and the level of inflation, investors have become so enthralled with a rate cut that they are acting irrationally. When there is good economic news the market goes down. On the other hand the market goes up when the news is considered bad for the economy.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, September 11, 2007

Central Banks Panic Buying Toxic Bonds As Credit Crunch Looms / Interest-Rates / Credit Crunch

By: Gerard_Jackson

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIt appears to be increasingly evident that the recent turmoil in the financial markets was not an aberration. John McFarlane, former ANZ chief executive, noted that 30-day bank bills were rising. Last week the bill rate exceeded 7 per cent as against the cash rate of 6.5 per cent, giving it a premium of 0.5 per cent. It was also reported that the banking system has been importing billions of dollars to cover its exposure. The same thing is apparently happening overseas.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, September 10, 2007

Fed Expected to Cut Interest Rates As US Recession Looms / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: John_Mauldin

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThis week in Outside the Box, good friend Paul McCulley of PIMCO fame addresses the important topic of fed fund easing. Paul addresses the predicament the current Fed finds itself in on account of not wanting to bail out those who took excessive risk in what he dubs the "shadow banking system," - comprising an alphabet soup of levered non-bank investment conduits, vehicles, and structures. The crux of the matter as Paul highlights is that the 50bp discount rate reduction still remains a penalty to the Fed Funds rate, hence simply not an attractive source of funding for real banks, who have access to the Fed funds rate.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, September 10, 2007

Fed September Meeting is Bernanke's Test / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: David_Urban

The September Federal Reserve meeting becomes a major test for Bernanke's reign as chairman. Wall Street responded positively to the discount rate cut but now the addict that we described earlier will be looking for its next fix. It wants it drug and that drug is liquidity. Since the cut, central banks worldwide have injected more than $300 billion dollars of liquidity into their banking systems through repurchase agreements and other arrangements. This tells me that the problems are not over. They have only moved the liquidity crisis to the backburner hoping, like in March, it corrects itself.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, September 09, 2007

Housing Market Impact on the US Economy, Should the Fed Cut Interest Rates? / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: John_Mauldin

In this issue:
Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Shocker in the Employment Numbers
Should the Federal Reserve Cut Interest Rates?
Will A Cut Make Any Difference?
How Housing Woes Hurt the Rest of the Economy
Home Again, Home Again

The unemployment numbers came in today, and if you look under the hood of the data, it is worse than the headline loss of 4,000 jobs. Should the Fed cut the interest rates in two weeks? Will it make a difference? Are we headed into recession (as predicted here in my January 2007 forecast issue)? When do we see a bottom in the housing market? Are we there yet? We look at all this and more. It should make for an interesting letter, if I can get my jet-lagged body to cooperate.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, September 08, 2007

Will the Fed Continue to Cut US Interest Rates? / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Tim_Wood

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIt seems like the hot debate on the upcoming Fed meeting is whether or not they will cut the discount rate. Given that we had a cut in August, I'm not sure if we will see another cut in September. But, I can tell you that at present the charts do in fact say that we have entered into an environment in which rates will continue to be cut over the longer-term. Here's why.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, September 06, 2007

Gold and Subprime US Dollar Backlash / Interest-Rates / Subprime Mortgage Risks

By: Jim_Willie_CB

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleA certain nerve has been struck a few times in recent reading on my part by the description of the USDollar as a subprime currency. How true!!! When a debtor has poor credit history, inadequate income, and shoddy assets, the borrower is deemed to be subprime, which means less than good, not up to snuff, of second rate standard. The entire world is growing in its disgust for having been defrauded. While US banking and economic leaders are smugly claiming containment of the problem, foreign officials are acting according to the opposite conclusion. Every single denial of the problem, whether from press pundits, corporate titans, banking officials, government ministers, agency heads, trade representatives, and central bankers, has been incorrect.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, September 06, 2007

The Bank of England to the Rescue - The Threadneedle Hotline / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates

By: Adrian_Ash

"...The lowest interest rates for 40 years! Employment at a record high! More debt per working family than any other people in history..."

THE BANK OF ENGLAND chose not to raise Sterling base rates on Thursday, despite the UK money supply growing at a two-decade record.

It also made fresh short-term loans available to London 's illiquid money market. But might the UK authorities be considering a more "prudent" response to the credit crunch, too?

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, September 06, 2007

UK Interest Rates on Hold at 5.75% As Financial Sector Crash Continues / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The Bank of England kept interest rates on hold at 5.75%, the move was widely expected as the credit crunch continued to hit the financial sector which has seen sharp drops in stock prices of financial institutions such as Northern Rock as the credit crunch increases financing costs across the sector. This was evidenced by the recent surge in the inter bank LIBOR rate which resulted in the Bank of England to provide additional liquidity.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, September 05, 2007

Bernanke and Bush on Subprime Credit Crunch / Interest-Rates / Credit Crunch

By: David_Urban

Friday was a big day as the markets expected confirmation of a September rate cut in Bernanke's Jackson Hole speech. What they got was confirmation that the Fed is monitoring the situation and stands ready to act if the housing meltdown spills over into the general economy.

‘It is not the responsibility of the Federal Reserve –nor would it be appropriate – to protect lenders and investors from the consequences of their financial decisions. But developments in financial markets can have broad economic effects felt by many outside the markets, and the Federal Reserve must take those effects into account when determining policy.' Bernanke told the markets that it is not the Federal Reserve's job to bail out speculators but they will act if there is a spillover into the general economy.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, September 05, 2007

Fed Wants Mortgage Lenders to Ease Terms and Delay Foreclosures / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Adrian_Ash

Hit to the Head with a Two-by-Four

"...The Fed wants mortgage lenders to ease their terms and delay foreclosures. Yet it's just capped new lending at six state-chartered banks, hoping to restore their 'financial soundness'..."

BUSY DOING NOTHING about asset-price bubbles until after they burst, the Federal Reserve has still been chiding no end of miscreant banks, foreign firms, lenders and brokerages about fraud and money-laundering since the Dot Com Bubble burst.

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