Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Gold Final Warning: Here Are the Stunning Implications of Plunging Gold Price - P_Radomski_CFA
2.Fed Balance Sheet QE4EVER - Stock Market Trend Forecast Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3.UK House Prices, Immigration, and Population Growth Mega Trend Forecast - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Gold and Silver Precious Metals Pot Pourri - Rambus_Chartology
5.The Exponential Stocks Bull Market - Nadeem_Walayat
6.Yield Curve Inversion and the Stock Market 2019 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.America's 30 Blocks of Holes - James_Quinn
8.US Presidential Cycle and Stock Market Trend 2019 - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Dear Stocks Bull Market: Happy 10 Year Anniversary! - Troy_Bombardia
10.Britain's Demographic Time Bomb Has Gone Off! - Nadeem_Walayat
Last 7 days
BrExit Party EarthQuake Could Win it 150 MP's at Next UK General Election! - 18th May 19
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast 2019 May Update - 18th May 19
US Economy to Die a Traditional Death… Inflation Is Going to Move Higher - 18th May 19
Trump’s Trade War Is Good for These 3 Dividend Stocks - 18th May 19
GDX Gold Mining Stocks Fundamentals Update - 17th May 19
Stock Markets Rally Hard – Is The Volatility Move Over? - 17th May 19
The Use of Technical Analysis for Forex Traders - 17th May 19
Brexit Party Set to Storm EU Parliament Elections - Seats Forecast - 17th May 19
Is the Trade War a Catalyst for Gold? - 17th May 19
This Is a Recession Indicator No One Is Talking About—and It’s Flashing Red - 17th May 19
War! Good or Bad for Stocks? - 17th May 19
How Many Seats Will Brexit Party Win - EU Parliament Elections Forecast 2019 - 16th May 19
It’s Not Technology but the Fed That Is Taking Away Jobs - 16th May 19
Learn to Protect your Forex Trading Capital - 16th May 19
Gold Ratio Charts Offer The Keys to the Bull Market - 16th May 19
Is Someone Secretly Smashing the Stock Market at Night? - 16th May 19
Crude Oil Price Fails At Critical Fibonacci Level - 15th May 19
Strong Stock Market Rally Expected - 15th May 19
US China Trade Impasse Threatens US Lithium, Rare Earth Imports - 15th May 19
Gold Mind Reader's Guide to the Global Markets Galaxy: 'Surreal' - 15th May 19
Trade Wars and Other Black Swan Threats to Your Investments - 15th May 19
Our Long-Anticipated Gold Momentum Rally Begins - 15th May 19
Defense Spending Is Recession Proof - Defense Dividend Stocks - 15th May 19
US China Trade Issues Will Drive Market Trends – PART II - 14th May 19
The Exter Inverted Pyramid of Global Liquidity Credit risk, Liquidity and Gold - 14th May 19
Can You Afford To Ignore These Two Flawless Gold Slide Indicators? - 14th May 19
As cryptocurrency wallets become more popular, will cryptocurrencies replace traditional payments? - 14th May 19
How US Debt Will Reach $40 Trillion by 2025 - 14th May 19
Dangers Beyond a Trade War with China - 14th May 19
eBook - Greatest Tool for Trading? - 14th May 19
Classic Pitfalls for Inexperienced Traders - 14th May 19
Stock Market S&P 500 Negative Expectations Again - 13th May 19
Why Rising Living Standard in China Offers Global Hope - 13th May 19
Stock Market Anticipated Correction Starts On Cue! - 13th May 19
How Chinese Trade Issues Will Drive Stock Market Trends - 13th May 19
Amazon SCAM Deliveries for Fake Verified Purchaser Reviews "Brushing" - 13th May 19
Stock Market US China Trade War Panic - Video - 13th May 19
US Stock Market Leading Macro Economic Indicators Update - 12th May 19
SAMSUNG - BC94.L - Investing in AI Machine Intelligence Stocks - 11th May 19
US Increases Trade Tariffs Against China – Stock Markets, Gold, and Silver - 11th May 19
Who Has More To Lose In A No Deal Brexit? - 11th May 19
Gold at $1,344 Will Start Real Fireworks on the Upside - 11th May 19
Make America’s Economy Great Again - 10th May 19
Big US Stocks’ 2019 Fundamentals - 10th May 19
Stock Market US China Trade War Panic! Trend Forecast May 2019 Update - 10th May 19
Stock Market Shake-Out Continues – Where Is The Bottom? - 10th May 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Interest-Rates

Friday, May 25, 2007

Tremors in the US Bond Market / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Money_and_Markets

I've had plenty to talk about in recent weeks — underperforming REITs … the ongoing problems in housing … risky commercial real estate financing … private equity firms gone wild … overseas profit opportunities. These are truly interesting times in many markets.

But there's been one thing I haven't talked about — interest rates. The reason? They haven't been going anywhere. You ever see one of those EKG machine readouts? That's what the chart of 10-year Treasury Note yields has looked like since last August.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Interest-Rates

Sunday, May 20, 2007

Eau de Liquidity and the consequences of the spectacular boom in securitized lending / Interest-Rates / Liquidity Bubble

By: Michael_J_Panzner

Recent news reports highlight the difficulties some troubled borrowers are facing when trying to renegotiate payment and other terms with lenders. In many instances, the problems stem from the fact that the loans have been sliced, diced, and repackaged into mortgage-backed securities, which have then been sold to investors in the U.S. and around the world.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Interest-Rates

Saturday, May 19, 2007

People's Bank of China Takes With One Hand, Gives With The Other? / Interest-Rates / China Economy

By: Paul_L_Kasriel

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced today that it was raising the required reserve ratio on its constituent banks by 0.5 percentage points to 11.5%. This would be the eighth increase in the required reserve ratio since June 2006 when the ratio was 7.5%. You would think that with the PBOC mandating that banks now hold more reserves, the cost of reserve credit would be moving up. Think again. Chart 1 shows that the Chinese overnight interbank interest rate, the equivalent of the U.S. fed funds rate, stood at 1.57% in March (latest data that I have available) - 12 basis points lower than where it was in June 2006, before the required reserve ratio started its ascent.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Interest-Rates

Thursday, May 17, 2007

Inflation report confirms further rise in UK Interest rates to 5.75% / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates

By: Nadeem_Walayat

With the publication of the quarterly inflation report, Bank of England Governor Mervyn King confirmed that a further rise in interest rates to 5.75% is likely to occur later this summer, in an attempt to bring inflation back under control. He stated "The path of interest rates assumed in this projection anticipates a further rise in the bank rate,"

The inflation report confirmed that a rise in interest rates to 5.75% is required to meet the CPI target of 2% in two years time .

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Interest-Rates

Friday, May 11, 2007

FOMC - The Prospects for the US Interest Rates and the Dollar / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Julian_DW_Phillips

The Fed's Open Market Committee yesterday repeated its assessment from March 21st that persistent inflation remains the predominant policy concern. Interest rates were held at 5.25%. The Fed has just said, "inflation is a predominant risk" but did not raise interest rates, and indicated that it is not likely to do so, as it pointed to lower growth and the ongoing housing price problems.

The impression given is that it will react to higher inflation but will not pre-empt it. The dangers of inflation with falling growth [stagflation] are now apparent. This is gold positive and $ negative as the Trade deficit will continue at excessive levels in a climate that could discourage the investment of surplus $ [Asian nations in particular] back into the States.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Interest-Rates

Thursday, May 10, 2007

ECB Will Hike Interest Rates In June But Second-Half Policy Outlook Is Still Unclear / Interest-Rates / Euro-Zone

By: Victoria_Marklew

As expected, the European Central Bank (ECB) kept its Refi rate unchanged at 3.75% this morning, but signaled that it expects a rate hike at the June 6 meeting. Trichet stated that "strong vigilance is of the essence in order to ensure that risks to price stability over the medium term do not materialize."

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Interest-Rates

Thursday, May 10, 2007

Credit Collapse - May 10th / Interest-Rates / Credit Crunch

By: Paul_Lamont

On May 10 th 1837 , the banks of New York suspended gold and silver payments for their notes. Fear ignited bank runs throughout the United States . The young country fell into a 7 year depression. How could two decades of prosperity end so suddenly? According to America : A Narrative History : “monetary inflation had fueled an era of speculation in real estate, canals, and railroad stocks.” Cracks in the dam were visible much earlier, as the stock market peaked in inflation-adjusted value three years prior. According to Rolf Nef, debt levels in the private sector rose to 150% of GDP. In late 1836, the Bank of England concerned with inflation raised interest rates. As rates rose in England , credit tightened, and U.S. asset prices began to fall.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Interest-Rates

Thursday, May 10, 2007

Bank of England Raises UK Interest Rates by 0.25% to 5.5% / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates

By: Sarah_Jones

As widely expected UK interest rates have been raised to 5.5% at mid-day today.

In a statement the Bank of England stated :

The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee today voted to raise the official Bank Rate paid on commercial bank reserves by 0.25 percentage points to 5.5%.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Interest-Rates

Wednesday, May 09, 2007

UK Interest Rates Expected to Rise to 5.50% Tomorrow / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The rise in UK interest rates to the interim target of 5.50% is expected to occur at mid-day tomorrow. The rises in interest rates towards the Market Oracle target of 5.75% by Sept 2007 are a consequence of the Bank of England failing to control inflation.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Interest-Rates

Monday, April 30, 2007

The Bernanke Bluff on US Interest Rates / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Paul_Petillo

Ben Bernanke, the Federal Reserve chairman seems to be holding his ground when it comes to short-term interest rates – at least in the short-term. His recent testimony before the Congressional Joint Economic Committee offered no additional insight into how the chairman thinks. His testimony before legislators offered no hint as to what he would do with rates in light of some troubling economic news.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Interest-Rates

Sunday, April 22, 2007

UK Interest Rates to Rise to 5.50% on May 10th , What's Next ? / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The money markets have now priced in a rise in interest rates to 5.50% at the May meeting of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee.

In my previous article I discussed the reasons why interest rates have been on the rise during 2007 towards the target of 5.75% (British Pound Finally Awakens to Inflation feeding Rising UK Interest Rates 18th April 07)

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Interest-Rates

Wednesday, April 18, 2007

British Pound Finally Awakens to Inflation feeding Rising UK Interest Rates / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Inflation as measured by the CPI jumped above 3% to 3.1%, which now virtually guarantees a hike in UK interest rates to 5.5% at Mays Bank of England MPC Meeting. The British Pound surged through the $2.00 barrier, having flirted with it for nearly 2 years now, each attempt at a break having held, but no more !

Both the rise to 5.50% at the May meeting and the Pounds jump above $2.00 have been long forecast and expected.

The Story of 2007 has been and will continue to be of higher interest rates across the world. Not just for the UK but for most major economies. The resulting effect is already being seen in the currency markets with a selling of the US dollar especially against the Euro and Sterling.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Interest-Rates

Wednesday, April 11, 2007

Further Hikes in US Interest Rates Possible - But Gold Just Doesn't Buy It. / Interest-Rates / Gold & Silver

By: Adrian_Ash

"...The price of gold, US consumers and the International Monetary Fund all 
agree the US economy is about to slow down dramatically.."

SO FURTHER HIKES in US interest rates could still "prove necessary" according to Ben Bernanke and his team.

Stocks and bonds sold off hard Wednesday on the release of minutes from last month's Fed policy meeting. "They still have their finger on the trigger for raising interest rates," reckons one US fund manager running $23 billion in Los Angeles speaking to Bloomberg in between watching his portfolio wobble.

But gold, on the other hand, just doesn't buy it. Spot gold prices continued to trade in a tight range around $676.50 per ounce. Gold also held steady against the other major currencies, remaining near 6-week highs versus Sterling, the Euro and Japanese Yen.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Interest-Rates

Tuesday, April 10, 2007

Bank of Japan keeps Japanese Interest Rates on hold at 0.50% / Interest-Rates / Japanese Interest Rates

By: Sarah_Jones

The Bank of Japan kept interest on hold at 0.50%, following last Februarys hike from 0.25%.

This follows recent data which showed that inflation (CPI) fell in February to 0.1%, which again raised the specter of deflation that Japan has suffered from since the early 1990's property bubble collapse.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Interest-Rates

Saturday, April 07, 2007

Currency traders hated this week's vote by the Bank of England. But UK savers will hate it more... / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates

By: Adrian_Ash

SO THE BANK of ENGLAND voted to keep Sterling interest rates on hold for another month.

Ahead of the decision, the futures market had put the chances of a further baby-step increase to 5.50% at around fifty-fifty. That would have taken Sterling rates above US Dollar rates for the first time since March last year.

History says that an interest-rate premium for Sterling tends to reward currency speculators with a capital gain, as well as a positive pay-off from the carry. And so, anticipating a hike by the Old Lady, the foreign exchange market got itself increasingly long of Sterling over the last five trading sessions.
Read full article... Read full article...

 


Interest-Rates

Thursday, April 05, 2007

BOE Keeps UK Interest Rates on Hold in April But likely to Rise in May / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates

By: Victoria_Marklew

As expected, the Bank of England's (BoE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) left its policy repo rate unchanged at 5.25% this morning. However, as we've noted before (see Daily Global Commentary, March 21: UK: Rate Hike Expectations Ease but Don't Rule Out Further Tightening ), the BoE concluded in its February Inflation Report that inflation would be slightly above the 2.0% target in two years' time if the repo rate stayed at 5.25%. Given the members' concerns about underlying inflation pressures and about an increase in firms' pricing power, recent data suggest the odds still favor another rate hike in May.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Interest-Rates

Thursday, April 05, 2007

A Fixed Interest Income Bond Market Shock Looms / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Michael_Pento

First it was the NASDAQ stocks in 2000, then real estate prices, and now the third leg of this asset price correction is at the threshold. Recent salvos from China and our own commerce secretary may be the catalysts for this correction.

We have been in a multi-decade bull market in bond prices. From September of 1981 to June of 2003 the yield on the two year Treasury note fell from 16.46% to 1.23%. Likewise from October '81 through June '05 the 30 year bond has declined from 14.68% to 4.29%. Since then, the two and thirty year yield has risen to 4.5% and 4.85% respectively. According to Bloomberg, treasuries are now 1.56 percentage points lower than the 6.21% average of the past 20 years. That means even if you discard the high rates of a quarter century earlier into your calculation, treasuries yields are still about 32% below average!

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Interest-Rates

Wednesday, April 04, 2007

Derivatives Trading Disasters - From LTCM to the 'Ohio Put' in nine years of easy money... / Interest-Rates / Money Supply

By: Adrian_Ash

THIRTEEN YEARS AGO , the giant German industrial conglomerate Metallgesellschaft lost $1.5 billion trading crude oil futures.

It admitted afterwards that it knew little-to-nothing about the oil market.

The next year, in 1995, Barings bank – one of Britain's oldest and most respected financial institutions – went bust thanks to a lone trade in Singapore losing some $860 million on Japanese stock futures.

The head office in London claimed it knew nothing about Nick Leeson's repeated strategy of 'double or quits'.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Interest-Rates

Monday, April 02, 2007

Nolte Notes - What if ? Trade War with China ?, War with Iran ? Still expect lower US interest rates / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Paul_J_Nolte

Former Speaker of the House, Tip O'Neil said that all politics is local. However, today the focus is trained upon everywhere but within our boarders. The hostage “situation” in Iran, the rumblings of protection legislation directed at China as well as the ongoing debate about the war in Iraq. What we need is a good debate about a new stop light in the middle of town! The impact upon the financial markets has been to take their eyes off the economy and play many “what-if” games – what if the hostage crisis lingers in Iran, what will be the impact upon our oil supply.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Interest-Rates

Saturday, March 31, 2007

Draw the Yield Curve, Then Plot the Data / Interest-Rates / Inverted Yield Curve

By: John_Mauldin

This week we look at something which has far more potential to hurt the economy than subprime loans - the US Congress. We muse on inflation data and why the economy may do better than I think.

Let's start with a question from reader Dr. Rick Simon Associate Professor of Mathematics of the University of La Verne. After some very nice comments, he threw in the zinger:

"That said, however, you've gone far into the 'draw the curve, then plot the data' mentality this time. It wasn't enough to 'spin' the data the way you want it; for example, by citing only the Fed's Moskow and ignoring Bernanke and others. You actually state, 'Fewer buyers and those losing their homes will mean more rentals. That means rent prices will go up.' Please do explain how more rentals on the market will cause rent prices to go up."

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Page << | 1 | 10 | 20 | 30 | 40 | 50 | 60 | 70 | 80 | 90 | 100 | 110 | 120 | 130 | 140 | 150 | 160 | 170 | 173 | 174 | 175 | 176 | 177 | 178 | >>