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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Interest-Rates

Wednesday, August 15, 2007

Ben, If You're Going to Cut US Interest Rates... / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Tim_Iacono

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke pays pretty close attention to the inflation statistics, so he's probably already figured out that if he's going to cut short-term rates this year, he ought to do it in the next two months.

Just in case he hasn't figured it out already, maybe this explanation will assist in what will likely be a difficult decision-making process.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Interest-Rates

Wednesday, August 15, 2007

GOLD THOUGHTS - Federal Reserves Flawed Monetary Policy / Interest-Rates / Inflation

By: Ned_W_Schmidt

Complete and total intellectual bankruptcy of Federal Reserve was confirmed this past week. Creation and collapse of two financial bubbles in eight years would seem to suggest monetary philosophy of Federal Reserve is fatally flawed. Core rate of inflation as a tool for managing monetary policy should be declared dead, and buried in history books of foolish thinking.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, August 14, 2007

Bernanke Grounded-- for Now / Interest-Rates / Credit Crunch

By: Michael_Pento

The head of the Federal Reserve has so far not lived up to his moniker of “Helicopter Ben.” Unlike what his label suggests, Mr. Bernanke has only addressed the current liquidity crisis with system repurchases—which add temporary cash into the system—instead of coupon passes, which are a more permanent infusion of cash. By leaving the Fed Funds target rate at 5.25%, he has differentiated himself from Alan Greenspan, whose playbook response to a crisis was to devalue the currency without hesitation.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, August 02, 2007

UK Interest Rates Expected to Stay on Hold at 5.75% Today / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The Market Oracle expectations are for the Bank of England to keep interest rates on hold at 5.75% at today's MPC meeting.

Our last analysis (18th July 07) targeted the next rise to 6% to occur at the October 2007 MPC Meeting. More importantly there is increasing probability that 6% will mark a peak for UK interest rates. This is becoming clearer with each passing months economic data on the economy which show a slowing housing market and moderating inflation. Additionally, the series of financial knocks such as the ongoing liquidity squeeze sparked by the failure of Bear Stearns Hedge funds due to excessive positions in the faltering US Subprime mortgage market, are also expected to be taken into account at today's interest rate decision meeting.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, August 02, 2007

Hedge Fund Failures is Fire in the Projection Room / Interest-Rates / Financial Crash

By: Tim_Iacono

Many people in high places continue to assert that problems with hedge funds and subprime lending do not pose a systemic risk to the financial system.

If these important people did think the entire financial system was threatened, do you think they would tell us?

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, July 31, 2007

Hedge Fund Subprime Credit Crunch to Impact Interest Rates / Interest-Rates / Credit Crunch

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The ongoing crisis triggered by the subprime mortgage defaults continues to spiral into new directions, making it difficult for even experienced market watchers to comprehend the complete picture and its implication for the financial markets. Therefore this article attempts to explain the crisis and what it implies for future interest rate trends.

What are Subprime Mortgages?

These are Mortgages made available to those of subprime credit risk (poor credit histories), hence called sub prime mortgages.

Why would financial institutions lend to people with poor credit histories ?

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Interest-Rates

Monday, July 30, 2007

Yield on US 10-Year Note Going Lower / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Mike_Paulenoff

The yield of the 10-Year Treasury note climbed from 4.73% in March to 5.32% in June, at which point it had surged to a six-year resistance line, implying the potential for much higher rates. It then reversed in a big way and plunged to 4.74% into today's low, mostly in response to flight-to-safety concerns.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, July 27, 2007

Central Banks Print Money Whilst Money Market Interest Rates Fall / Interest-Rates / Credit Crunch

By: Submissions

KEEPING OUR EYES PEELED FOR THE SILVER AND GOLD BASIS

Setting up the trip-wire

Gamblers shorting the dollar and bonds beware. Rumors about the imminent demise of the dollar and the bond market are grossly exaggerated. Bear in mind not only that the casino owner rigs your odds. He is also rigging the value of chips in which payoffs are made, thereby confusing the issue further.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, July 27, 2007

Back to Banking Basics - Risk Rating Agencies Assigning AAA to Risky Debt / Interest-Rates / Risk Analysis

By: Adrian_Ash

REMEMBER WHEN banks lent money using the cash deposited with them?

That's how most people still imagine banking works, even today. The banks hope to profit simply by charging more on their loans than they pay out to cash depositors. The art (or science) comes in choosing only the most credit-worthy borrowers, or adjusting the interest rate charged to higher risk debtors accordingly.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, July 24, 2007

Nolte Notes - Sublime to Sub-prime / Interest-Rates / Subprime Mortgage Risks

By: Paul_J_Nolte

The market focus has begun to move from the sublime to sub-prime. Housing was to be well contained, earnings growth (although slowing) was to march inexorably higher and investors mergers and acquisitions were going to (eventually!) remove every stock from the markets. Then Friday happened. Earnings warnings from Caterpillar and a miss by internet giant Google cast doubt about the overall strength of earnings for the quarter.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, July 23, 2007

Bear Stearns / Subprime Crisis - Looking for Contagion in All the Wrong Places / Interest-Rates / Credit Crunch

By: John_Mauldin

This Week in Outside the Box we Join Bill Gross of Pimco in his July 2007 Investment Outlook as he strives to address the implications of the Bear Stearns hedge fund debacle, the toxic waste that is Wall Streets' innovative derivative products and their respective valuation, rather, lack thereof.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Interest-Rates

Friday, July 20, 2007

The State of the Credit Markets / Interest-Rates / Credit Crunch

By: John_Mauldin

In this issue:
Hot Fun In The Summertime
Collateralized Loan Obligations
The Economic Outlook for Leveraged Credits
The New Mickey Mouse Club
Planes, Trains and Automobiles

This week I am already in Maine and getting ready for a weekend of fishing with my son Trey, so I am going to take off a week from writing the letter. I spoke this morning to the Maine chapter of the Chartered Financial Analysts in Portland. The question of the day was about the subprime markets, private equity and the debt markets in general. And these are the right questions, as this is the part of our economic world with the most risk.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Interest-Rates

Wednesday, July 18, 2007

UK Inflation CPI Falls But Interest Rates Set to Rise to 6% By October 2007 / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Yesterday the 'official' measure of UK inflation the Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell from 2.5% to 2.4%, and thus trending in the right direction towards the 2% target after a scare earlier in the year when the CPI breached the upper limit of 3%, prompting the Governor of the Bank of England to write a letter to the former Chancellor Gordon Brown explaining why the Bank had failed to control inflation.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, July 17, 2007

Bear Stearns Yet to Report Mortgage Bond Losses - Bish, Bosh, Loads of Dosh! / Interest-Rates / Credit Crunch

By: Adrian_Ash

"...Wasn't Bear Stearns supposed to report the losses at its two mortgage-bond hedge funds on Monday this week...?"

"BEAR STEARNS Investors Await Tally on Losses," said the Wall Street Journal two weeks ago. The two-week deadline, set by America 's fifth-largest securities firm itself in an email to investors, came and went yesterday.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Interest-Rates

Tuesday, July 17, 2007

Bank of England’s Rate Raising Cycle Is Far From Over! / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates

By: Mario_Innecco

Today we saw the O.N.S. (Office of National Statistics) release the C.P.I. and the R.P.I. for the month of June. The C.P.I. or the consumer price index came out at a 2.4% year on year rate and actually dropped from 2.5% in May but the financial markets were expecting a drop to 2.3%, while the R.P.I. or the retail price index came out at 4.4% year on year which was on the back of an expected decrease from 4.3% to 4.2%.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Interest-Rates

Tuesday, July 17, 2007

US Bond Market and Interest Rates Quarterly Review and Outlook - Second Quarter 2007 / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: John_Mauldin

This week in Outside the Box, we take a closer look at the bond market and its underlying drivers. HMIC's Van Hoisington and Dr. Lacy Hunt anticipate lower inflationary pressures on account of faltering consumer spending and further deterioration in the housing market.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Interest-Rates

Friday, July 13, 2007

When Bad Debts Attack - Japan a Warning to the US Fed / Interest-Rates / Credit Crunch

By: Adrian_Ash

"...Memo to the US Fed: When the Dollar collapse comes, you might not get chance to even give money away..."

BEN BERNANKE has his helicopter. John Maynard Keynes had old bottles buried in coal mines.

And the Japanese government? How can Tokyo dish out free money and put an end to deflation, that horror of falling prices and wages?

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Interest-Rates

Friday, July 13, 2007

Bond Market - Time to Face the Music / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Peter_Schiff

This week, bond rating agencies Moody's and Standard & Poor's finally announced downgrades on billions of dollars of bonds backed by subprime mortgages. Though the cuts will certainly not reflect the full weakness of the bonds, and will not include nearly as many issues as they should, they nevertheless amount to the beginning of the end of the phony mortgage investment market and the unrealistically high home prices that it helped support.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Interest-Rates

Thursday, July 12, 2007

Hyperinflation and the Bond Markets / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: David_Shvartsman

Here's one for all you economic philosophers and "bond market vigilante"-types. The question I'm currently turning over in my mind is this: can the U.S. experience hyperinflation, or will the possibility of such an extreme inflationary spiral be held in check by the bond markets?

The current thinking on the possibility of the United States experiencing hyperinflation seems to be split between those who say it can (and likely will at some point in the future), and those who feel it cannot, for precisely the reason stated above.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, July 12, 2007

CDO - Compound Damage Orgy / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Jim_Willie_CB

Collateralized Debt Obligations are the CDO bonds under fire, soon to suffer huge losses, subject of debt downgrades, object of failed auctions. We are talking about hundreds of billion$ in bond losses. A vicious circle has begun, sure to continue for a length of time ten times greater than what is expected, like into 2010. Home values are on the decline, the basis collateral for such asset-backed bonds, some of which hold car loan portfolios also in trouble. Homeowner defaults are on the decline, the basis income for such asset-backed bonds. The foreclosure process will aggravate the already swollen supply of homes. Hedge fund collapse will aggravate the already shaky supply of CDO & mortgage bonds. This is a worst case scenario unfolding on a horrific scale.

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