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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Commodities

Thursday, October 06, 2016

Gold’s Second Waterfall Drop this Week / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Michael_J_Kosares

We do not often find ourselves jogging the same track as the redoubtable Dennis Gartman who commands untold premiums for his advice, but now, it seems, he is verifying our suspicion of two days ago (Please see “Gold’s waterfall drop might be associated with the big drop in British sterling”) that something is amiss in London gold trading circles.  Here is today’s chart – a second waterfall move in the gold market coincident with a second swan dive for the pound and Gartman’s take (snipped from ZeroHedge).

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ElectionOracle

Thursday, October 06, 2016

Path to the White House is Paved by Billions of Dollars / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016

By: Walter_Brasch

With a month left before the November general election, Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are trash-talking each other in a financial race to the White House.

According to the latest filing with the Federal Election Commission, Clinton has raised about $516.8 million for her campaign. Total spending by outside groups and SuperPacs supporting her was an additional $31.7 million; the total spent opposing her was about $40.2 million.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, October 06, 2016

Wall Street Earnings Recession is no cause for Worry; Stock Market Bull has been ignoring it. / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Sol_Palha

Irony is the form of paradox. Paradox is what is good and great at the same time.Friedrich Schlegel

We could sum it up in two words as to why earnings recession was, is and will be a non-event; Hot Money.  However, for some strange reason when it comes to the markets individuals happen to love long explanations even though in most cases the long answers reveal a lot less than the short ones do.  So let’s take a look at some of these meaningless statistics.

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Commodities

Thursday, October 06, 2016

Crude Oil Price Double Top or Further Rally? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

Trading position (short-term; our opinion): No positions are justified from the risk/reward perspective. In other words, we think that taking profits off the table and closing the previous long positions is a good idea.

On Tuesday, crude oil gave some of earlier gains after news that Iran and Libya have continued to increase production. In these circumstances, light crude slipped to the previously-broken resistance zone, but then closed the day above it. Is this a verification of the breakout?

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, October 06, 2016

Stocks Extend Their Fluctuations, Topping Pattern Or Just Consolidation Before Another Leg Up? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Paul_Rejczak

Briefly: In our opinion, speculative short positions are favored (with stop-loss at 2,210, and profit target at 2,050, S&P 500 index).

Our intraday outlook is bearish, and our short-term outlook is bearish. Our medium-term outlook is neutral, following S&P 500 index breakout above last year's all-time high:

Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): bearish
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): bearish
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): neutral

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Companies

Thursday, October 06, 2016

China Might Be Deutsche Bank’s Last Hope / Companies / Credit Crisis 2016

By: John_Mauldin

By Olivier Garret: The pressure has been mounting on Deutsche Bank (DB), with the German government spurning the possibility of a bailout and the stock slumping. DB recently hit a record low.

The German titan has been trying to sell assets to raise money to pay the US Department of Justice its record US$14 billion fine. And there have been rumors that Berlin is applying pressure to get the huge fine reduced.

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Politics

Thursday, October 06, 2016

The West Is Playing a Zero-Sum Game with ISIS / Politics / ISIS Islamic State

By: John_Mauldin

ISIS and radical Islamic terrorism are a threat to the Western world. And so far, we have not really developed any serious defense mechanisms to deal with it. Rather, we are mostly just reacting to seemingly random events.

My friend Dr. Woody Brock is one of the most brilliant game theory specialists that I know. He regularly applies game theory to economics and investing. Here, he analyzes the conflict between the West and ISIS. He says that because of our very values, we end up playing the “game” in a way that leads us to continual frustration.

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Commodities

Thursday, October 06, 2016

Gold Price to Rally $80 into October 14th? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Brad_Gudgeon

I admit I missed the GDX move down to 22.93 today, but at the same time it has presented itself with a great opportunity. The chart below is predicting GDX 29.84 by October 14. I am now leveraged, extremely leveraged with options for a strong rally ahead in gold and GDX.

A lot of negative bias now in the precious metals complex has me thinking the other way: and that is a massive short covering rally ahead. The e-wave look and cycles suggest the same. The "nonfarm payrolls report" on Friday could be (likely) the catalyst.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, October 06, 2016

Will the Stocks Bull Market Remain Intact in 2017? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Clif_Droke

The question confronting investors right now is whether the lateral trading range in the major indices represents consolidation of the long-term uptrend, which precedes an eventual upside breakout from the range?  Or does it represent distribution (i.e. selling) which precedes an eventual breakdown of the trend? 

Bulls and bears have assembled evidence to support their respective take on this conundrum, but the most basic and useful evidence suggests the first outcome, namely an eventual upside resolution.  Let’s examine the evidence in support of this conclusion. 

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Commodities

Thursday, October 06, 2016

Projecting The Consolidation in Precious Metals Mining Stock Indices / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2016

By: Rambus_Chartology

Tonight I would like to start off the Wednesday Report by looking at our current bull market in the HUI. I’m going to try and show you how our current setup is what one would expect in a bull market.

A stock or stock market does one of three things. First, it’s building out a reversal pattern that will reverse the current trend. Second, it’s building out a consolidation pattern that is consolidating the current trend. Third, the price action is impulsing after breaking out of either a reversal pattern or consolidation pattern. This is how markets works.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, October 06, 2016

Stock Market Positive Session with Good Technicals / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Harry_Boxer

The stock market indices had another wild session, first gapping up and running to retest the highs, unable to get there, and by midday hit their peak on the Nasdaq 100. The S&P 500 did make a higher high in the afternoon, unconfirmed by the Nasdaq 100. That caused a negative divergence, which sold them off in the last hour.

Net on the day, the Dow was up 112.58 at 18,281.03, 34 points off its high. The S&P 500 was up 9.24 at 2159.73, 4 points off its high. The Nasdaq 100 was up 18.28 at 4877.75, 14 points off its high.

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Commodities

Thursday, October 06, 2016

Gold for When Markets Go Bump in the Night / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Michael_J_Kosares

“Gold has worked down from Alexander’s time. . .When something holds good for two thousand years, I do not believe it can be so because of prejudice or mistaken theory.” – Bernard Baruch

We should not be surprised that the long-standing troubles at Deutsche Bank would appear to be coming to a head now. For global financial centers, October is often the cruellest month – a time when stock markets and whole economies have been known to go bump in the night. The Panic of 1907, the Crash of ’29, Black Monday 1987, the Friday the 13th crash 1989, the Asia Crisis of 1997, the downturn of 2002 and the launch to bear market in 2007 – all took place in the month of October.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, October 05, 2016

TNX, USD and SPX Meet their Respective Turning Points / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2016

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

Bond yields spiked this morning in a retracement of the decline from the September 13 high in an 89.5% retracement to the 2-hour Cycle Top.

ZeroHedge comments, “"Soft" survey data from ISM appears to have trumped "hard" data from construction spending and factory orders, juicing expectations for a rate-hike in November to around 30% - the highest since The Fed began its so-called normalization cycle. The USD Index and bond yields are jumping on the news, stocks are unclear, and silver and gold are slipping further.

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Commodities

Wednesday, October 05, 2016

Gold Buying ‘Opportunity’ After Surprise 3.4% Drop / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: GoldCore

“Gold rebounded after the biggest drop in more than a year as investors reminded themselves of a world that’s beset by risk, from the prospect of further currency weakness to the final stretch of the U.S. presidential election,” according to Bloomberg today.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, October 05, 2016

Stock Market Season of Falling Prices and Percent Index Proves It! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Chris_Vermeulen

It’s a knows fact that Sept and October are typically weak times for US stocks. Going back 37 years shows us the tendency for investors to sell and rebalance their portfolios to try and perform better during the final quarter.

But that’s not really the point of this article. The chart below shows a comparison between the SP500 bullish percent index and the SP500 index.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, October 05, 2016

Stock Market Indices Has Rough Session / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Harry_Boxer

The stock market indices had a rough session. After a gap up and then a move up to resistance, the indices were unable to get much further than that. They had a selloff, a very sharp snapback, but again couldn’t get through the highs, and then started to decline in a distinct down-channel all day. Only in the last hour did they snap back off the lows, but S&P 500 violated key support by a couple points, before the rally. We’ll just have to see whether they were able to hold the fort right here, or going to make lower lows.

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Economics

Wednesday, October 05, 2016

The Hyperinflationary Death Watch / Economics / HyperInflation

By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis

An almost hysterical antagonism toward the gold standard is one issue which unites statists of all persuasions. They seem to sense – perhaps more clearly and subtly than many consistent defenders of laissez-faire – that gold and economic freedom are inseparable, that the gold standard is an instrument of laissez-faire and that each implies and requires the other. – Alan Greenspan

Every hyperinflation is unique. No one wants the chaos it will bring. We are not rooting for it. Monetary crisis is always part and parcel or a extension of the inevitable cycles of history.

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Commodities

Wednesday, October 05, 2016

Gold Price Plunges on Rate-Hike Fears / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: The_Gold_Report

Gold fell below $1,300 today for the first time since the Brexit vote in June, as the dollar index rose to a two-month high.

Gold fell below $1,300 today for the first time since the Brexit vote in June, as the dollar index rose to a two-month high. At press time, gold was down $42, at $1,270.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, October 05, 2016

USD, Gold and USB are testing their Outer Limits / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2016

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

USD came within a hair’s breadth of the upper Broadening Wedge trendline at 96.50 this morning, but now is beginning to sell off after reaching 96.39. Considering the corrective nature of the move, I did not expect the trendline to be broken. Nonetheless, I had monitored it for any unexpected outcome. A decline today beneath 95.26 may create a Bearish Engulfing Candle, which is a strong reversal pattern.

The moves being made here may have a pronounced effect on various markets, which we will discuss further down the page. The main effect of a declining USD may be the withdrawal of foreign investors from risk markets.

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ElectionOracle

Wednesday, October 05, 2016

Mike Pence Beats Tim Kaine to Win VP Debate Triggering Trump Bounce / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Donald Trump has been having a disastrous time following loss of the 1st Presidential debate to Hillary Clinton and then leak of his 1995 tax return as illustrated by the betting market. However, now there is sliver of hope for Trump's campaign as his running mate, Mike Pence beat Tim Kaine in the Vice Presidents debate as the post debate odds have marginally shifted in Trumps favour.

Trump could learn a lesson or two from Pence on how to win debates, which apparently is NOT by going on the defensive as Trump repeatedly did to salvos from Hillary but by just completely ignoring the attacks and instead go on the attack or try to win the audience by telling them what they wanted to hear. Though of course "Mr Know it All" Trump listens to NO ONE!

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