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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Commodities

Thursday, March 11, 2021

An Honest Look at Gold’s Chartolgy / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Rambus_Chartology

As you well know the PM complex has been trading at a very important inflection point for the last month or so looking for the next important move either up or down. I can make a case today for either direction but the Chartology is strongly suggesting the next important move is going to be to the downside. In the very short term, days to maybe a week or so we could see some backtesting to many important necklines that have already given way.

Lets start with a few important moving averages that in the past gave us our first warning that things could start to get a little rough. These aren’t big deals in and of themselves but they do throw up a little red flag that says, pay attention.

During the bull market years I used a ribbon of 4 different moving averages that when they became all properly aligned to the upside they told us that gold was very strong. The 300 day sma was the most important moving average for the long term health of gold. Throughout the bull market that began in 2000 until the high in 2011 the only time the 300 day sma was violated was during the 2008 crash.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, March 11, 2021

Yet Another Bubble And Stock Market Crash Article / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Avi_Gilburt

If I see another article calling this market a bubble, or that the crash is coming, or claiming that “the party is over,” I am seriously going to scream. But, I guess we should thank all these article writers as they are adding bricks to the wall of worry that we will climb in 2021.

I mean, have you ever seen a crash when everyone, and their mother, grandmother, uncle, aunt, and aunt’s cat knew it was coming? In fact, I got calls from many of my relatives asking me whether they should get out of the market since all they are hearing is that we are going to get a repeat of the March 2020 crash.

As an individual investor, you are undoubtedly bombarded by information throughout the internet. While some of it is bullish and most are normally bearish (as bearishness seems to sell better), it is quite a challenge to be able to distinguish the wheat from the chaff. Unfortunately, the great majority of the information resides within the chaff, and often causes investors to focus upon their fear more so than profitable information.

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Economics

Thursday, March 11, 2021

Biden Stimulus And Consumers Are The Keys To Further US/Global Economic Recovery / Economics / US Economy

By: Chris_Vermeulen

At this point in our lives, we are hoping the new COVID-19 vaccines will do their part to help move the world towards more normal consumer and economic activities.  The US Senate recently a new $1.9 Trillion stimulus package that should continue to provide assistance to various levels of consumer, state governments, and corporate enterprises.  The next question in our mind is “what will the recovery look like if/when it happens?”.  We need to look at three critical components of the global economy to help answer this question: Consumer Activity, Debt, and Supply/Demand Functions.

Consumer activity makes up more than 60% of the US GDP.  It also drives money flow as consumers engage in economic activity, create credit for new purchases and help to balance the supply/demand equilibrium functioning properly.  The participation of the consumer within an economy is essential for a healthy growing economy.

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Politics

Thursday, March 11, 2021

Biden’s massive infrastructure plan might be expensive but well worth it / Politics / Infrastructure

By: Richard_Mills

Is America’s infrastructure spending worth it? So far, the answer would lean towards a yes.

A report published by the American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) this week has validated the nation’s recent success in improving its infrastructure, while justifying the need for additional government spending.

The “Report Card for America’s Infrastructure”, published every four years since 1998, gave US infrastructure an average grade of “C-” — up from a “D+” in 2017 — marking the first time in two decades that a “C” range grade was given.

While it appears the US infrastructure programs are on the right track, a lot more work still needs to be done to address those crumbling roads and bridges, says the ASCE, labelling overall US infrastructure in “mediocre condition.”

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Housing-Market

Thursday, March 11, 2021

Debt and Yield Curve and US House Prices Trend 2021 / Housing-Market / US Housing

By: Nadeem_Walayat

One of the reasons why my analysis of April 2019 was more subdued in terms of the prospects for US house prices than it would otherwise have been is because the yield curve was flirting with inversion, that I concluded that the Fed would not allow to take place and thus adopt whatever measures were necessary to PREVENT inversion that tends to foreshadow lower inflation and recessions.

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Commodities

Wednesday, March 10, 2021

Bond Yields Roil Markets, Gold/Silver Drop / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: MoneyMetals

As financial markets sold off this week, precious metals got dragged down in the selling. The culprit, once again, was rising bond yields.

On Thursday, the 10-year Treasury climbed above 1.5%. While still low on a historical range, the upside momentum has investors concerned. Over the past seven months, the 10-year yield has tripled from a low of just 52 basis points.

The 10-year note serves as a benchmark for mortgage rates as well as risk premiums in the equity markets. Elevated price-to-earnings ratios in the S&P 500 are more difficult to justify in a higher interest rate environment.

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Commodities

Wednesday, March 10, 2021

Real US Interest Rates and Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Richard_Mills

Several factors influence gold prices (mainly the US dollar, gold ETF inflows/ outflows, inflation rate, bond yields, safe haven demand, physical gold demand, gold supply) but none is more reliable than real interest rates.

The demand for gold moves inversely to interest rates — the higher the rate of interest, the lower the demand for gold, the lower the rate of interest the higher the demand for gold.

The reason for this is simple, when real interest rates (interest rate minus inflation) are low, at, or below zero, cash and bonds fall out of favor because the real return is lower than inflation. If you are earning 1.6% on your money from a government bond, but inflation is running 2.7%, the real rate you are earning is negative 1.1% — an investor is actually losing purchasing power. Gold is the most proven investment to offer a return greater than inflation, by its rising price, or at least not a loss of purchasing power.

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Commodities

Wednesday, March 10, 2021

Gold Price Momentum Selloff / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Zeal_LLC

Gold has suffered unrelenting selling in the last couple months, hammering it and its miners’ stocks much lower.  Those outsized anomalous losses have left sentiment in tatters, with overpowering bearishness universal.  Gold’s thrashing had nothing to do with fundamentals, it was driven by cascading momentum selling in gold futures and gold-ETF shares.  But such dumping is finite, increasingly likely to exhaust itself.

Last summer, gold rocketed 40.0% higher out of last March’s COVID-19-lockdown-spawned stock panic.  That massive upleg left this metal extraordinarily overbought, guaranteeing a correction to rebalance both sentiment and technicals.  That came right on schedule, with gold dropping 13.9% over 3.8 months into the end of November.  That healthy selloff was in line with this bull’s precedent, leaving gold sufficiently oversold.

Gold’s three prior corrections during this secular bull had averaged 14.3% losses over 4.1 months.  And that was skewed big, with two of those earlier selloffs seriously exacerbated by unique anomalous events.  So the odds swung around to favor gold’s next bull upleg getting underway.  Indeed it soon started marching higher in a strong uptrend, carrying gold up 9.8% by early January.  Then gold went pear-shaped!

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Commodities

Wednesday, March 10, 2021

Gold And US Treasuries – Punctures In The Everything-Bubble / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Kelsey_Williams

Meanwhile, eyes are fixed on interest rates for US Treasury bonds. During the same six-month period (August 2020 – February 2021) during which the price of gold fell by seventeen percent, the price of the 20-year US Treasury bond fell by twenty percent. That IS a huge deal, as it corresponds to sharply higher interest rates from less than 1% last August to as high as 2.26% just the other day.

The rush to proclaim correlation between interest rates and gold has resumed. Also, warnings and predictions of much higher inflation from around the globe are increasing.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, March 09, 2021

This Isn’t Your Father’s Overvalued Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: John_Mauldin

Many analysts contend that current stock valuations resemble the dot-com era. You can see it visually at CurrentMarketValuation.com. Some highlights…

The classic “Buffett Indicator” certainly seems to be in nosebleed territory. Notice that the valuations in 1966, the beginning of a long-term bear market, were also high.

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Commodities

Tuesday, March 09, 2021

3… 2… 1… Let the Gold Corrective Rally Begin / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Folks, it seems that gold has formed an interim bottom, and a short-term corrective upswing is now likely, before the medium-term downtrend resumes.

Any further declines from this point are not likely to be significant for the short-term. The same applies to silver and the miners.

In yesterday’s (Mar. 4) intraday Gold & Silver Trading Alert , I described briefly why I think that the very short-term bottom is already in (or is at hand), and in today’s analysis, I’ll illustrate my points with charts. Let’s start with gold.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, March 09, 2021

US Bond Market Rocks the Richter Scale / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Michael_Pento

The global sovereign bond market is fracturing, and its ramifications for asset prices cannot be overstated. Borrowing costs around this debt-disabled world are now surging. The long-awaited reality check for those that believed they could borrow and print with impunity has arrived. From the U.S., to Europe and across Asia, February witnessed the biggest surge in borrowing costs in years.

Thursday, February 25, 2021, was the worst 7-year Note Treasury auction in history. According to Reuters, the auction for $62 billion of 7-year notes by the U.S. Treasury witnessed demand that was the weakest ever, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.04, the lowest on record. Yields on the Benchmark Treasury yield surged by 26 bps at the high—to reach a year high of 1.61% intra-day--before settling at 1.53% at the close of trading.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, March 09, 2021

Stock Market Great ADP Figures But Things Can Still Turn Nasty / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Submissions

Powell gave a wait-and-see answer to my yesterday‘s rhetorical question about the bears just starting out, indeed. The S&P 500 plunged, breaking far outside the Bollinger Bands confines, illustrating the extraordinary nature of the move. Rebound would be perfectly natural here (and we‘re getting one as we speak) – but will it be more than a dead cat bounce?

Stocks partially recovered from last Friday‘s intraday plunge, and good news about the stimulus clearing House followed after the market close – stock bulls took the opportunity, and Monday‘s session gave signs that the worst is over. Tuesday‘s move partially negated that, but even after Wednesday, the short-term case was undecided (even as tech kept acting relatively weak).

Yesterday‘s session though gives the short-term advantage to the bears, and that‘s because of the weak  performance I see in other stock market indices and bonds. The Russell 2000 got under pressure, negating what by yesterday still looked like a shallow correction there. So did the emerging markets and their bonds. More downside can materialize either suddenly or slowly over the coming say 1-2 weeks. It depends on the tech and its heavyweight names, where these find support.

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Economics

Tuesday, March 09, 2021

Amid Uncertainty, China’s Quest for Bold Development  / Economics / China Economy

By: Dan_Steinbock

At a historical moment of hope and uncertainty, China pledges bold economic development, despite global tensions.

China’s annual “Two Sessions” meeting has approved national priorities for 2021. Delivered by Premier Li Keqiang, the Government Work Report set a growth target of over 6 percent for Chinese economy for 2021, releasing a numeric goal after it was skipped in 2020, due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

China plans to create more than 11 million new jobs in 2021, while keeping inflation rate (CPI) at 3 percent and cutting the deficit-to-GDP ratio to 3.2 percent. The goal is to increase annual R&D spending by more than 7 percent in the next five years, including foreign-funded R&D centers in China.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, March 09, 2021

U.S. Stocks: Here's a Big Sign That "Sentiment Cannot Get Much More Extreme" / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: EWI

The stock exposure of the most bearish active investment managers is revealing

Relatively few investors want to bet against the stock market rally.

As a Feb. 18 financial article says (CNBC):

Short interest in the market has fallen to near-record lows.

Indeed, bullish sentiment is so extreme that even the most bearish among a group of professionals are behaving bullishly.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, March 08, 2021

The AI Stocks Megatrend Big Picture / Stock-Markets / AI

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Stock markets are soaring on the back of vaccines that herald the end game to the Covid nightmare. However the vaccines, covid-19 are all mere blips in the long-term trend trajectory that is being driven by AI and it's full spectrum application. For instance these are the key areas that I identified to focus upon over 5 years ago, though the number is always increasing as AI encroaches into every aspect of our lives which is why my focus primarily on core AI stocks rather than applications of AI.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, March 08, 2021

The Future of FINRA, Regulatory Defense and Bad Stockbrokers / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021

By: Steve_Barker

FINRA stands for the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority. This tends to be the first line of defense against a bad experience with a securities broker, and it also has many other benefits. FINRA is an independent nongovernmental organization that focuses on the root of problems, securities sold to investors, and selling them to investors. It is the single largest independent regulatory body for securities firms operating in the United States. It writes and enforces the rules governing broker-dealer and registered brokers firms in the United States.

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Companies

Monday, March 08, 2021

Almost Everyone Is Online: But Most of the Money Isn’t / Companies / Tech Stocks

By: Stephen_McBride

Ottawa sure is a long way from Silicon Valley. In the summer of 2010, Tobi Lütke met with venture capitalists at Bessemer Ventures. He was looking for a couple million bucks to fund his money-losing Canadian startup. Cash was so tight Lütke’s father-in-law had to write checks to pay the employees.

Bessemer was skeptical at first. A tech startup in bitterly cold Ottawa? But they took the plunge with a $7 million cash injection, valuing the startup at $25 million.

Guess What Shopify (SHOP) Is Worth Today?

It’s Canada’s largest company, valued at $160 billion. Longtime RiskHedge readers know I called Shopify “the next great trillion-dollar stock.”

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Stock-Markets

Monday, March 08, 2021

It is Time for Stock Market Investor Caution? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX Long-term trend:  There is some evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009 and which could continue into the first half of 2021 before coming to an end.

SPX Intermediate trend:  SPX is not likely to end its intermediate trend until it reaches about 4150.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.

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Commodities

Monday, March 08, 2021

Gold Predictive Modeling Suggests A New Rally Targeting $2300+, But When Will it Start? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Chris_Vermeulen

One of our readers’ favorite tools is the Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) predictive modeling system.  This tool maps out technical and price patterns into an array of similar setups using historical data, then applies that data to current and future price bars.  Using the ADL predictive Modeling tool, we can see into the future based on historical technical analysis that maps statistically relevant price activity and shows us the highest probability outcomes. 

Monthly ADL Gold Predictions

In this research article, we’re going to focus on Gold and how current price action suggests a bottom is likely near the $1720 level.  The YELLOW price channels on this Monthly Gold chart highlight exactly where we believe support is located for Gold.  If this $1700 price level is breached to the downside, then the previous lows, near $1400, are the next support level for Gold.

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