Monday, May 11, 2020

Finding Winners in the Wreckage of the Coronavirus Economic Downturn / Economics / Coronavirus Depression

By: Frank_Holmes

While the broader markets have seen sharp declines, Frank Holmes, CEO and chief investment officer of U.S. Global Investors, homes in on gold, gold stocks and bitcoin, and gives his prognosis for the airlines.

Streetwise Reports: Let's start with gold, which has seen an impressive rise in the last few months as the broader markets have declined on the back of the coronavirus pandemic. What do you think is ahead for the metal?

Frank Holmes: There is a short-term view and a long-term view. What's really hard for so many investors and asset allocators to recognize is that gold bullion since 2000 has far outperformed the S&P 500. In fact, of the last 20 years, in 16 of those years gold has been positive. So if we look at the numbers, it's double what the S&P 500 has done for the past 20 years.

Monday, May 11, 2020

We Are On The Verge of the Entire World Becoming Like East Germany / Politics / Pandemic

By: Jeff_Berwick

Only You Can Stop It

East Berlin citizens woke up on 13 August 1961 to more than 30 miles of barbed wire barrier through the heart of Berlin. Overnight they were forbidden to pass into West Berlin, and the number of checkpoints in which Westerners could cross the border was drastically reduced. And when it became clear that there would be no major action to protest the closing, the tyranny of East German authorities became silently ratified.

Monday, May 11, 2020

Brave New Corona World – A heated Debate between Steven Pinker and Aldous Huxley / Politics / Pandemic

By: Submissions

Aldous Huxley: Did I not make sufficiently clear what I think about principled optimists and ideological perfectionism when I wrote a masterpiece of world literature on the subject? Don’t believe that a man of the mind ever takes leave of thinking and simply retires. Instead I’m anxiously following what you’re doing down there – and certainly that gives me no rest. Coronavirus is only one among many threatening forebodings. Homo sapiens insapientissimus seems to do everything in his power in order to put himself on the red list of species without a future. And you don’t even know what you are doing! *0*

Steven Pinker: Here you go, I don’t talk to the dead; you’ve had your time, now the living are calling the shots. What you delivered in your great masterpiece was after all nothing but poetry, that is to say nothing but fantasy. But I can prove – figures at hand – that almost everything is much better today than it has ever been in the past. People live longer, they kill themselves less, they eat better, they have fewer illnesses than ever before – even though their numbers have increased sevenfold during the last two hundred years. *1* What better proof is there to reduce all your objections to absurdity – together with those of all other naysayers and prophets of doom, both living and dead?

Sunday, May 10, 2020

Coronavirus Catastrophe Stock Market Implications / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This analysis is the final part in my following series of analysis -

• Rabbits in the Headlights
• Paving the Way for War with China 
• The Coronavirus Greatest Economic Depression in History?
• Crude Oil Prices Go NEGATIVE!
• UK Coronavirus Catastrophe Current State
• US Coronavirus Catastrophe Current State
• Stock Market Implications and Forecast

The whole of which was first made available to Patrons who support my work: Is the Stock Market Correct to Ignore The Great Coronavirus Economic Depression?

Sunday, May 10, 2020

US Stock Prices are Ignoring the Economic Meltdown, Wait for it… / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Many months ago, our research team suggested any future collapse in the global markets would likely prompt a global capital shift in how capital identifies and is deployed for ROI.  We’ve continued to suggest that the more mature, global economies will become beneficiaries of any massive global collapse event and that capital will actively seek out security and safety while attempt to attain moderate returns.  We suggest reading this past research post on global central banks moves to keep the party rolling.

In 2019, we predicted a major Super-Cycle event would take place on or near August 19, 2019.  We believed this event would prompt a major downside price rotation that would prompt a shift in how capital is deployed throughout the world’s financial markets.  At that time, and still, we believe a long-term price cycle event is taking place which will prompt a deeper price bottom event that will likely complete near August or September 2020.  This raises an interesting setup related to Technical Analysis for skilled traders…

Sunday, May 10, 2020

US ­Rates Eye Negative Territory as Capital Prepares for Slow Death / Economics / Coronavirus Depression

By: MoneyMetals

Precious metals markets appear to be gearing up for another leg higher. On Thursday, the metals complex rose sharply across the board. Gold gained about 2.5% while silver packed on nearly 4%.

Both of the monetary metals showed signs of breaking out of the sideways trading ranges they’ve been stuck in over the past four weeks. Silver closed solidly above its 50-day moving average for the first time since late February.

Bulls will be looking for confirmation with strong weekly closes today and then follow-through early next week.

Sunday, May 10, 2020

Forecasting Crude Oil: This Method Has Been the Undefeated Champion Since 1998 / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: EWI

In case you just landed on Earth via Martian spaceship, 2020 has seen the biggest crash in oil prices ever.

This chart captures crude's three-month, 80%-plus nosedive to 3-decade lows. (Price data as of May 1, 2020 and does not reflect the unprecedented April 20 plunge into negative territory at -$40.32. Yes, minus $40.32).

Sunday, May 10, 2020

Coronapocalypse and Gold - How High Is Too High for the Yellow Metal? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

$2,000, $5,000 or even the Jim Rickard’s $50,000 as the next target for gold. How realistic are these figures – could we see the yellow metal at $5,000 or even higher amid the coronavirus crisis? We invite you thus to read our today’s article and find out how high gold prices can go in this downturn.

The first quarter of 2020 was clearly positive for the gold market, as the chart below shows. The yellow metal gained 6.2 percent from December 30, 2019 to March 31, 2020, moving from $1,515 to $1,609. In April, the bullion went up even further to $1,693, increasing gains to 11.7 percent in 2020 (as of April 17).

Sunday, May 10, 2020

The Illusion of Owning Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Nick_Barisheff

Gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and similar products account for a significant part of the gold market, with institutional and individual investors using them to implement many of their investment strategies without considering the true risk associated with many aspects of holding non-tangible assets. Gold ETFs are units representing physical gold in paper or dematerialized form, which is very different from owning physical gold. According to the World Gold Council, global gold-backed ETFs added 298 tonnes, or US$23 billion, across all regions in the first quarter of 2020[1]. Total ETF holdings amounted to 3,296 tonnes, representing US$179 billion. The largest ETF is SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) with 1,048 tonnes.

Many investors and financial advisors may be surprised to learn that owning shares in a gold ETF is not the same as owning physical gold. As one of the largest ETFs, GLD states in its prospectus: “…designed to track the price of gold.” Is it wise to choose convenience over holding physical gold?

Since their introduction in 2003, gold-backed ETFs have transformed the gold investment market into an illusion, diverting attention from ownership of physical gold. This is like a magician that has you focused on a distraction while they perform a trick.

Sunday, May 10, 2020

The Financial Crisis Will Continue To Lurk Even If the Lockdown Gets Eased / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2020

By: Submissions

Saturday, May 09, 2020

Right Now, the Bullish S&P 500 Ride Goes On No Matter What / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Yesterday, we’ve pointed out the many bullish signals going for stocks, and saw them open higher, and extend their gains. Well, that was true about the first half of the session, as the S&P 500 returned to trading close to unchanged before the closing bell. Is the upswing over now?

In short, we doubt that.

S&P 500 in the Short-Run

Saturday, May 09, 2020

Silver Offers A Great Opportunity / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Hubert_Moolman

The stock market has had a great run during the last decade. It has made some people a good stack of money.

However, the March crash has many wondering what it will do next. Will it continue to crash, or will it continue the bull market?

Is it really worth spending time and effort contemplating its next move? I think not.

The market is currently presenting a great opportunity to lock in those stock market profits, and then even growing it much more.

Saturday, May 09, 2020

Will Gold Decline As Economies Gradually Reopen? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Half the US States and countries like Italy and Germany are gradually easing lockdowns. Taking measured steps, the moves are broadly cheered. Rightfully so? And what does the reopening mean for the gold market?

Epidemics: Bad, Good, and Ugly

By May 6, 2020, more than total 3.6 million of confirmed cases have been reported in the world and more than 250,000 have already died from the COVID-19. In the United States, about 1.2 million of cases have been identified so far, and more than 71,000 people have died. This is bad news.

Friday, May 08, 2020

Junior Gold Miners Ready To Run / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Both Gold and Silver Futures have been struggling to rally above recent high levels since the start of the global stock market collapse related to the COVID-19 virus event.  Yet, the Junior Gold Miners appear to be telling us the Precious Metals market is boiling hot.

Gold, the bell-weather safe-haven asset, initially collapsed when the US stock market started the massive selloff in late February 2020, then recovered to higher price levels near $1785 recently.  Since reaching these levels, Gold has stalled into a sideways price flag near major resistance.

Silver, on the other hand, is trading near $15.60 and has yet to really recover to anywhere near the levels it had achieved in early January 2020 (near $18.60).

Friday, May 08, 2020

The Giant Presumption behind Re-Opening America / Economics / Coronavirus Depression

By: Patrick_Watson

Newly “liberated” Americans are flocking to beaches, parks, and restaurants, eager to prove the novel coronavirus doesn’t scare them.

In fact, the virus doesn’t care how brave they are. It just wants to spread. I suspect it found many new hosts at those gatherings, and this will be apparent soon.

At the same time, many others are still staying home whenever possible, not yet convinced it is safe to go out. 

But regardless of who’s right, Wall Street people are thrilled. The stock market shot higher in April. Many experts think the economy will soon be back to normal.

Friday, May 08, 2020

RABBITS in the HEADLIGHTS! US and UK Government Response to Coronavirus / Politics / Pandemic

By: Nadeem_Walayat

RABBITS IN THE HEADLIGHTS that's what the UK and US Government response to Covid-19. Nearly always acting about 6 weeks after they should have done so and only then when in the midst of a panic, likely due to being advised by mad scientists who should not have been let out of their ivory towers!

They do not have a clue, not a single clue whatsoever, literally are rabbits in the headlights cannot even understand the most basic aspects of what's taking place. If anything should come out of this crisis than it should be less reliance on governments! Though I fear the exact opposite may transpire as governments use the pandemic to expand their reach into every aspect of ordinary citizens lives which does not bode well for the next crisis!

Friday, May 08, 2020

3 Things to Watch When the Stock Market Fed Jet Fuel Runs Out / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: John_Mauldin

Main Street needs customers. The Fed, for as much as it is trying to flood the markets with money, can’t create them.

And yet, the jet fuel has succeeded in pushing stock benchmarks and valuations back near their old highs. Clearly, and probably rightly, investors are willing to look past the second- and possibly even third-quarter earnings, which everyone acknowledges will be dismal.

But what happens when earnings are dismal in the fourth quarter?

Friday, May 08, 2020

A New Day Has Dawned for Gold and Silver / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: MoneyMetals

Most resource sector writers (including me) have for a long time been "wrong" about gold and silver.

When they ran from $250 and $5 an ounce, respectively, to $1,920 and $49 in 2011, those who listened, acted, and sold a bit did quite well. We argued the "longer time bullish case" as these metals dropped into their final cyclical bear market graves in late 2015.

But that was then… and this is now.

What we DID get right was that when the Big Turn finally came, it would change directions so swiftly and violently that anyone waiting for "the bottom" would miss it, as rising premiums more than offset declining prices.

Friday, May 08, 2020

Stock Market Bears Running Out Of Time / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Ricky_Wen

Tuesday’s session played out as a ‘gap up and go’ structure that faded in the final few minutes of regular trading hours (RTH). If you recall, RTH opened at 2863.25 after Monday’s closing print of 2827.5 on the Emini S&P 500 (ES), so it was a +1.2% gap up. Then price action continued in the trending direction for the majority of the day, forming higher lows and higher highs as the northbound train goes towards the immediate targets.

However, the bears made a counterattack around 2889.75 high, which was right near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 2965-2771 range, and swiftly backtested into our key support of 2850 by the end of the day.

Friday, May 08, 2020

Technical Analysis Points To Key Reversal Of Global Markets / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Recently, we received a number of email messages and comments regarding our recent Bitcoin article and how we attempted to explain the market trend/technical analysis.  It appears we were not making our interpretation very clear for our friends and followers.  This article should help to clear up our interpretation of the major market trends and our advanced technical analysis tools and utilities.

As purely technical traders, there are certain things we want to make clear.  First, we do pay attention to what is happening to the fundamentals and global economic data when it posts.  We’ve authored many previous articles stating our belief that “capital is like a living/breathing entity which attempts to survive (generate ROI with little risk) in various global market environments”.  In order for us, as technical traders, to identify real opportunities for superior trades, we must be aware of what is happening in the “environment” that surrounds us.