Thursday, November 07, 2019
Where Is That Confounded Recession? / Economics / Recession 2019
By: F_F_Wiley
“Ah, excuse me. Oh, will ya excuse me. I’m just trying to find the recession. Has anybody seen the recession?”
Ask that question in a roomful of forecasters, and you’ll hear plenty of reasons why the next recession is dead ahead: the inverted yield curve, the tariff war, weak PMIs, the global manufacturing downturn.
Events might eventually prove those recession forecasts to be correct, although I would say not until mid-2020 at the earliest, and a recession at that time remains just a possibility. I say that because we haven’t yet seen enough cause for alarm in the three areas that most reliably predict recessions. Before every recession, we see at least one, usually two and often every one of the following three precursors:
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Thursday, November 07, 2019
Shades of 2007–2008 - Modern Central Banking Is More Vulnerable than We Think / Interest-Rates / Central Banks
By: John_Mauldin
Banks are a place where you store your cash, right? Not exactly.When you deposit money in a checking or savings account, you aren’t just letting the bank hold it on your behalf. You are lending the bank that money and the bank is borrowing it.
That’s why deposits show as a liability on the bank’s balance sheet.
We think of banks as lenders, and they are, but they’re also borrowers. They make money by lending at higher rates than they pay as borrowers, and by leveraging their deposits via fractional reserves.
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Thursday, November 07, 2019
FREE eBook - The Investment Strategy that could change your future / InvestorEducation / Learning to Invest
By: Submissions
Out of 35 closed trades have 31 winners with a return on capital of 17% already."
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Wednesday, November 06, 2019
Is There a Stock Market Breakout Ahead? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Harry_Dent
Somehow the stock market is expecting growth to re-accelerate after a disappointing 2.0% GDP growth in Q2. The only sign of such growth in the stock market is central banks lowering rates and expanding their balance sheets again. Q3 just came in at 1.9%, just below the 2.0% last quarter. And that covers over the bigger decline in consumer spending down from 3.03% in Q2 to 1.93% in Q3. Business investment continues to trickle down as did last quarter.
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Wednesday, November 06, 2019
These Indicators Aren’t Putting to an Economic Resurgence / Economics / US Economy
By: Harry_Dent
When David Stockman spoke at our IES conference in October, he had a whole slew of charts that showed that the main street economy had nothing to do with the Wall Street one – and that there were more signs of weakening growth than strengthening.He recently showed some updates and these were the two that most caught my eye. Both of these are from the more cyclical sectors that most often cause recessions.
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Wednesday, November 06, 2019
Stock Market Ongoing Acceleration Phase / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Ricky_Wen
After Sunday night's grind up, Monday’s regular trading hours session was just a very tight consolidation overall range of 3083-3072.5 on the S&P 500, trapping and baiting traders as it gets ready for the next move. Price action could not gather enough strength yet to break above the 3085 key level and force a mini squeeze towards the 3100 major short-term level.
The main takeaway from this session is that the market is still showcasing the ongoing acceleration phase from last week’s breakout above 3029.5 (prior ATHs). However, the market is battling against the 3085/3100 resistance zone, and based on the current odds showcasing another temporary top setup before ramping higher. If it does not, then it opens up a rare scenario where 3193.75 target could be reached directly with a vertical squeeze to erase all doubts/odds. Know your timeframes because ultimately a temporary top/consolidation setup allows the market to backtest significant trending supports in order to reset the internals and ramp higher at a later date.
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Wednesday, November 06, 2019
Understanding the Different Types of Travel Insurance / Personal_Finance / Travel & Holidays
By: Submissions
Travelers usually find it hard choosing the best type of travel insurance for their trip. Essentially, there are three common types of insurance plans: travel medical plans, specialty plans, and package plans.
Package plans are perhaps the most popular ones since they offer comprehensive coverage- they combine numerous options into a single plan that’s designed to cover all the mishaps plus disasters that could happen on your trip. But at the same time, they’re the most expensive form of travel insurance- costing approximately 6 to 8 percent of your total trip cost. Generally speaking, there are three common types of insurance you may want to consider. The choice you make will solely depend on your budget, travel needs, and personal preferences.
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Wednesday, November 06, 2019
The Biggest Gold Story Of 2020 / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019
By: OilPrice_Com
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Tuesday, November 05, 2019
Best Money Saving FREE Bonfire Night Fire Works Show Sheffield 2019 / Personal_Finance / Sheffield
By: Anika_Walayat
It's Bonfire Night! Forget paying to watch After Dark, instead over 3000 people attended Sheffield's best FREE Bonfire Night Fireworks show of 2019 at Chelsea Park.
The fireworks show went on for a good 15 minutes, so well organised by the local scouts association who get a big thumbs up.
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Tuesday, November 05, 2019
Is the Run on the US Dollar Due to Panic or Greed? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Ellen_Brown
What’s going on in the repo market? Rates on repurchase (“repo”) agreements should be about 2%, in line with the Federal Reserve funds rate. But they shot up to over 5% on Sept. 16 and got as high as 10% on Sept. 17. Yet banks were refusing to lend to each other, evidently passing up big profits to hold onto their cash—just as they did in the housing market crash and Great Recession of 2008-09.
Because banks weren’t lending, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York jumped in, increasing its overnight repo operations to $75 billion, and on Oct. 23, it upped the ante to $120 billion in overnight operations and $45 billion in longer-term operations.
Why are banks no longer lending to each other? Are they afraid that collapse is imminent somewhere in the system, as with the Lehman collapse in 2008?
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Tuesday, November 05, 2019
China Is an Underrated Threat to the World / Politics / China US Conflict
By: John_Mauldin
In Hong Kong, somewhere between 1–2 million people (out of a 7+ million population) have taken to the streets protesting an extradition bill proposed by Beijing.
These protests have been ongoing and persistent. That the extradition bill has now been withdrawn is seemingly not enough to satisfy a smaller but active protest group.
And then came the furor over the NBA. The general manager of the Houston Rockets, Daryl Morey, tweeted out a small and rather innocuous message of support for the Hong Kong protesters.
Tuesday, November 05, 2019
Reasons Why Madrid Attracts Young Professionals / Housing-Market / Spain
By: Travis_Bard
Among the many cities that attract young professionals, Madrid stands tall. The daily routine for an average young professional tends to be strict and full of hard work. Therefore, the last thing a young professional need is to struggle with issues like housing and other benefits that Madrid has to offer.
As a young professional, you need a place or city that allows you to live and stay healthy: physically, mentally, and spiritually. In such a city can you be guaranteed positive results and high productivity. The good news is apartment renting in Madrid offers a wide variety of options as well as convenience. These reasons and others are why Madrid attracts young professionals. Let's take an in-depth look into this.
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Tuesday, November 05, 2019
Time for Investors to Reset Their Portfolios for Inflation / Stock-Markets / Inflation
By: MoneyMetals
As investors reset their clocks to accord with the end of Daylight Savings Time, they may also need to reset their expectations for future returns.
A strong body of research suggests that artificially changing the time twice a year – forward, then backward an hour – does more harm than good. It leads to sleep disruptions, heightened stress, missed appointments, wasted time (ironically), and a diminishment of productivity around these biannual time changes.
As reported in HeadlineHealth, “Circadian biologists believe ill health effects from daylight saving time result from a mismatch among the sun ‘clock,’ our social clock – work and school schedules – and the body’s internal 24-hour body clock.”
Tuesday, November 05, 2019
Larger Bullish Move in USD/JPY May Just Be Getting Started / Currencies / Japanese Yen
By: MarketsToday
Summary
- Once current retracement is complete the USD/JPY has a good chance of exceeding last week’s high.
- Pair still in early stages of following through on bullish breakout of a large head and shoulders bottom.
- Upside target zone around $110.51 to $110.70.
Following an upside breakout of a large head and shoulders bottom pattern several weeks ago, the USD/JPY pulled back to test support of the neckline last week. So far, the area of the neckline has held as support around $107.88. Whether it continues to do so remains to be seen.
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Tuesday, November 05, 2019
Constructive Action in Gold & Silver Stocks / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019
By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne
In our most recent editorial we concluded by observing a few positives in the gold and silver stocks. W concluded with: “Their performance over the weeks ahead could give us an early hint as to how much longer the correction will last.”
Fast forward another week and a few positives has morphed into a handful of positives.
First let’s look at GDX. In the chart below we plot GDX and its advance decline (A/D) line.
GDX has essentially corrected for two months and it has yet to test the previous resistance zone at $24 to $25. It has bounced from $26 several times and established good support there. So it’s holding its gains.
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Tuesday, November 05, 2019
The Boring Industry That Hands +500% Gains / Companies / Sector Analysis
By: Stephen_McBride
Smart hunters prey on the weak.
That may sound heartless, but lions instinctually know not to chase fast, young gazelles. Instead, they run down the old limping gazelle in the back of the pack.
Smart disruptors also target easy prey.
Amazon (AMZN) first went after bookstores like Barnes & Noble and Borders. What could be easier than selling books online? Books are easy and cheap to mail... don’t spoil like food... don’t come in different sizes like clothes... and book buyers rarely demand refunds.
Then there’s Netflix (NFLX). It didn’t challenge mighty Disney (DIS) right away. It went after the limping gazelle known as Blockbuster, a company that hadn’t evolved much in decades.
Tuesday, November 05, 2019
How to Fast Tame New Budgies to Sit on Your Finger - Parakeets Taming & Care / Personal_Finance / Educating Children
By: Anika_Walayat
It's only day 4 and we have already managed to to get our new pet budgie to start sitting on our fingers. So find out how to fast tame your budgie to sit on your finger in our latest Budgie / Parakeet care series video.
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Monday, November 04, 2019
Stock Market Chartology vs Fundamentals / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Rambus_Chartology
I’ve been holding off on writing this Weekend Report for the US stock markets until I got just a little more confirmation that the next impulse move higher is underway. Last weeks price action is strongly suggesting that the nearly 2 year consolidation phase is drawing to a close. Lets say I’m seeing some green shoots sprouting up in many different areas of the markets.
Most investors rely on the fundamentals in which to make their trading decisions because that is how its been since the beginning of trading the markets. Fundamentals do have a place in investing in the long term trend but they usually lag at the beginning of a major turn in the markets. Normally when the fundamentals turn up at the bottom of a bear market the price action has already turned up many months in advance. The same thing is also true at tops. Before the fundamentals turn down the smart money has already gotten out while those looking at the fundamentals are left holding the bag.
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Monday, November 04, 2019
The Fed’s Policy Is Like Swatting Flies with Nuclear Weapons / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: John_Mauldin
The Federal Open Market Committee had an unscheduled meeting on October 4. That happens occasionally and they often don’t reveal it occurred until the next regular meeting. That would mean Oct. 30, in this case.
But for some reason (and you can bet they had a reason) they decided to announce this one on Oct. 11.
In between, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in an Oct. 8 speech that the Fed would soon start growing its balance sheet again.
Monday, November 04, 2019
Stock Market Warning: US Credit Delinquencies To Skyrocket In Q4 / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Farm delinquencies skyrocket +24% year over year as global trade issues and the ability to service credit continues to be a problem. This is a tell-tale sign that the US Fed decreased the Prime Rate recently as a result of broader credit issues related to higher interest rates for corporate and other borrowers. The last thing the Fed wants is another collapse on the lending markets similar to 2008-09.