Thursday, October 24, 2019
Divergence of Gold And Bitcoin – Which Represents A True Safe-Haven? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Recently, Mark Zuckerberg appeared before the US Congress to discuss his new Libra project and to attempt to calm concerns related to his new global alternate currency project. It appears this project is putting global political leaders in a particularly powerful position of either accepting the Libra project as a viable future solution and implementing new laws and regulations in support of it or to shelve the idea while they consider the local and global risks associated with a project that creates a new class of global currency. (Source: https://www.bloomberg.com)
We believe the risks associated with a massive corporate and international backed Crypto/Alternate currency are far too great, at this time, for the US government to attempt to consider with only 12+ months to go before the US Presidential elections. This is almost like opening Pandora’s Box in terms of total global risks and outcomes. It becomes almost impossible for the US government, Federal Reserve or any other global central bank to be able to protect its citizens from the risks associated with any type of technology collapse, fraud, hacking or any other unknown risks associated with such an idea.
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Thursday, October 24, 2019
Stock Market New All-Time Highs By Year End - But, It May Not Be What You Expect / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Avi_Gilburt
This market has been difficult for both the longs and the shorts for months now. While it has been unwilling to break down, it has also been equally unwilling to break out.
What makes me scratch my head even more of late is that the Fed has come to the table with its “not-really-QE-4” of $60 billion a month. For those that remember, QE1 was approximately $100 billion a month on average, QE2 was $75 billion, and QE3 was $85 billion. But, to see the Fed coming forth with this type of liquidity injection when the market is hovering just below its all-time highs is a bit surprising. Yet, the market is still unable to break out.
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Thursday, October 24, 2019
Gold’s Seasonal Outlook for Q4 / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
“What is the best predictor of future behavior? Past behavior.” And while this certainly does not always hold, there is a lesson to be learned from this adage for gold investors. Yup, a saying about behavior might be important for the precious metals market. The basic idea is that behavior can be understood as history here. And so, the best predictor of future developments could be past developments. In other words, past developments might hold some indications as to the fluctuations in the market.
In particular, market patterns might repeat over time. It might just as well be the case that investors behave in a similar manner during specific times in the year. One classic example is the period after New Year – it has been argued that the investors are optimistic at the beginning of the year and that markets could rally then. Another one are the summer doldrums – the old saying is “sell in May and go away” - meaning that people tend to tune out during the summer holidays more than at other times throughout the year. New Year and the summer do not move throughout the year. But Thanksgiving does – it is not always on the same day. The same goes for the market. Some influences could be difficult to pinpoint. The one we focus on is the expiration of derivatives. Futures contracts and options do not always expire on the same day in the month. And so to account for them is slightly more complicated. Even more so if you would like to combine classic seasonal patterns with the expiration of derivatives.
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Thursday, October 24, 2019
The Duel Between Johnson and Parliament. Will Gold Win? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Boris Johnson struggles to push the Brexit agreement through the British Parliament. For it can bite back! Who wins this battle? One could hope that gold, but this is not so certain…
Johnson’s Struggle, Explained
On Thursday, the breaking news came out that the EU and the UK reached agreement on Brexit. The agreement scrapped the Irish backstop that had formed the bulk of the opposition to the former proposals. Naive who believed that it would change something! We have to admit that we thought for a while that finally the Brexit saga was coming to an end.
But the British government still has a long way to go! On Saturday, the Parliament voted for a change to the sequencing of the ratification of the deal. It means that they withheld support on Johnson’s Brexit deal until all the necessary legislation is passed. In this way, the lawmakers forced the prime minister to write a letter to the EU requesting a delay until January 31.
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Thursday, October 24, 2019
How GE Screwed Over Its Retirees / Companies / Pensions & Retirement
By: John_Mauldin
Remember “defined benefit” pensions?
That is the kind of plan in which the employer guarantees the worker a set monthly benefit for life. They are increasingly scarce except for small closely held corporations.
The same rules apply for small closely held businesses as for large corporations.
These plans can be great tools for independent professionals and small business owners. But if you have thousands of employees, DB plans are expensive and risky.
Thursday, October 24, 2019
Making Money Trading Oil: A Slippery Investment or Black Gold? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Boris_Dzhingarov
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Wednesday, October 23, 2019
Stock Market Seasonal Trend Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
SEASONAL ANALYSIS
The basic stock market seasonal pattern is after a weak Jan / Feb, strong March / April, a peak in May, down into June, a Strong July / August peaking in Sept for a wobble into October that sets the scene for a strong rally into the end of the year.
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Wednesday, October 23, 2019
Gold Prices Stand to Rally on Brexit Delay / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Submissions
With the odds of a Brexit deal by the October 31 deadline declining, gold bulls may stand to benefit.
The price of gold has been in a narrow range over the past session with support at $1479 drawing buyers while the shiny metal continues to struggle to rally above the psychological $1500 level.
Gold prices have been held higher by a weaker dollar as of late while at the same time suppressed by positive developments in the US-China trade war and progress in Brexit. But that could change quickly.
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Wednesday, October 23, 2019
What's Wrong With The Stock Market Smart Money? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Troy_Bombardia
Jason Goepfert writes: Another one bites the dust
The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index® is a popular indicator to watch for potential recessions ahead, and the latest reading shows a 2nd consecutive drop month-over-month.
The LEI hasn’t gone much of anywhere for a year, showing signs of plateauing. Its Bollinger Band has tightened to a near-record degree, showing that the index has flattened out over the past year.
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Wednesday, October 23, 2019
US Stock Markets “Roll Over” On Earnings and Economic Data At Channel Highs / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
As we near the end of October 2019, a very interesting price setup is taking place across many of the US market sectors recently. We only have a total of about seven trading days left in October 2019 and the Financial Sector ETF is rolling over with what appears to be an Engulfing Bearish price pattern near price channel highs. Additionally, the tech-heavy NASDAQ (NQ) has been mostly weaker compared to the ES and YM.
On September 30, 2019, we published this research post that highlighted why our predictive modeling systems suggested the S&P 500 and NASDAQ market sectors would become much more volatile than the Dow Jones Industrials: MODELING SUGGESTS BROAD MARKET ROTATION IN THE NQ & ES.
We believe this research is still very valid given the current price rotation near these price channel highs and given the potential that the Dow Jones stocks may become relatively stronger alternatives than the S&P 500 and NASDAQ sector stocks.
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Wednesday, October 23, 2019
Yes, Gold “Just Sits There” and That’s Quite a Feat / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: MoneyMetals
The Wall Street Journal’s Jason Zweig famously referred to gold as a “Pet Rock” in 2015. He was blasted by people who understand that gold is no passing fad, and it serves some very important roles in an investment portfolio.
The valuable roles played by gold have been well covered here. It’s a hedge against both inflation and deflation, it represents true diversification for portfolios stuffed with conventional securities, and it is a way of protecting wealth during tumultuous times.
But Jason Zweig, Warren Buffett and other notable gold critics who complain about the metal “just sitting there” fail to understand the flaw in their basic assertion.
Wednesday, October 23, 2019
Downsizing – What to Watch Out For / Personal_Finance / US Housing
By: Submissions
If you find that your current home is now too big for you, the idea of downsizing can be very appealing. Perhaps your children have moved away and the extra space is making you miss them more. Perhaps you’re starting to struggle with getting up and down the stairs, or with keeping everything clean. Perhaps you just like the idea of having a smaller place in a more convenient location, or of freeing up money so you can live more comfortably. Downsizing isn’t always trouble-free, however. To avoid problems, give some thought to the following.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, October 23, 2019
Gold Price Has Not Corrected Enough / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne
Precious Metals enjoyed a very strong move this past summer. Both Gold and gold stocks broke past multi-year resistance and showed the kind of positive momentum that has been lacking for years.
But strong momentum coupled with major technical resistance set in, along with a temporary shift in fundamentals, thus creating a roadblock and a correction. The precious metals complex has corrected some but our work argues they’ve not corrected enough.
First, let’s take a look at Gold and gold sentiment.
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Tuesday, October 22, 2019
Stock Market VIX Analysis / Stock-Markets / Volatility
By: Nadeem_Walayat
VIX
VIX is in a falling range from 26 to 13. Which should be bullish for stocks. However, the pattern is resembling that of October / November last year, which was a prelude to the Decembers steep sell off. August saw a higher high and September a high low. So we could be witnessing the calm before the storm.
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Tuesday, October 22, 2019
U-Turn or Perfect Storm? Globalization at Crossroads / Economics / Global Economy
By: Dan_Steinbock
Only 12 years ago, globalization peaked. Today, it is in the doldrums and the Trump trade wars have nullified the recovery. We are at a crossroads, where globalization may further stagnate or fall apart.According to the new IMF outlook, global growth is forecast at 3.0% for 2019. That’s the lowest since the global crisis of 2008-9. It is largely due to the US tariff wars, which have contributed to the projected slowdown in the US and China.
The IMF projects growth to pick up to 3.4% in 2020. That, however, is predicated on improvements in a number of emerging economies in Latin America, the Middle East and developing Europe, which, in turn, would require a trade recovery. Thanks to the global slowdown, world growth prospects now hover at levels where they were last in the darkest moments of 2008/9.
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Tuesday, October 22, 2019
Stock Market Indexes Struggle and TRAN suggests a possible top / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Nearing the end of October, traders are usually a bit more cautious about the markets than at other times of the year. History has proven that October can be a month full of surprises. It appears in 2019 is no different. Right now, the markets are still range bound and appear to be waiting for some news or other information to push the markets outside of the defined range.
We still have at least one more trading week to go in October, yet the US markets just don’t want to move away from this 25,000 to 27,000 range for the Dow Industrials. In fact, since early 2019, we have traded within a fairly moderate price range of about 3200 points on the YM – a rotational range of about 11% in total size. Historically, this is a rather large sideways trading range for the YM – nearly 3x the normal volatility prior to 2015.
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Tuesday, October 22, 2019
Fake Numbers Fueling the Wage War on Wealth / Politics / Economic Statistics
By: Rodney_Johnson
I’m stupid about the cost of a lot of things. I don’t mean uneducated, or lacking knowledge. I’m talking about downright dumb as a stump. Thank goodness the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is around to set me straight.Take my television, for instance.
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Tuesday, October 22, 2019
A Look at Peak Debt / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis 2019
By: Harry_Dent
David Stockman, Dr. Lacy Hunt and I agreed on a lot of things last week at the seventh annual Irrational Economic Summit in D.C. In the September issue of Boom & Bust, I talked about corporate debt being the greatest threat globally this time around. The worst is in the emerging world that used cheap printed dollars from the developed countries, primarily the U.S., to fund a debt binge concentrated in the corporate sectors. But our corporate sector also added a lot to their debt and only 39% of their bonds are investment grade, with 39% BBB and 22% junk.
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Tuesday, October 22, 2019
How High Debt Affects Bond Interest Rates / Interest-Rates / International Bond Market
By: Harry_Dent
The only Phd economist I allow to speak each year at the Irrational Economic Summit is Dr. Lacy Hunt. (You can watch his presentation from this year’s conference here.) Lacy can take that complex science and still see the forest for the trees. He can still find reality from all of that great theory to real-life outcomes.It also helps that he advises a $4 billion bond fund at Housington Management and has to get the reality of bond interest rates right or face the consequences – which he has for this entire boom!
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Tuesday, October 22, 2019
The Coming Great Global Debt Reset / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis 2019
By: Richard_Mills
In the first quarter of 2019, global debt hit $246.5 trillion.
Encouraged by lower interest rates, governments went on a borrowing binge as they ramped up spending, adding $3 trillion to world debt in Q1 alone. It reverses a trend that started in the beginning of 2018, of reducing debt burdens, when global debt reached its highest on record, $248 trillion.
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