Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Monday, December 23, 2019

Crude Oil Bulls Keep Trying But the Technical Headwinds Are Stiff / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

Crude oil futures moved higher once again during yesterday’s session, overcoming the upper border of the rising green trend channel for the third time in a row. While the futures finished the day above this resistance, the bulls didn’t manage to hold gained ground in full.

Earlier today, the futures opened with the red gap. This bearish development means invalidation of yesterday’s breakout, which doesn’t bode well for the bulls.

The daily indicators are still very extended, also supporting the likelihood of upcoming reversal to the downside.

Should the futures extend losses from here, the initial downside target for the sellers will be the Friday’s green gap.

Monday, December 23, 2019

Gold vs Cash in a Financial Crisis / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Richard_Mills

Mattress stuffers or bullion holders? Who fares better in a crisis? North American investors are divided between those who believe the decade-long stock market bull is going to keep running into the 2020s, and investors who, wary of something terrible happening, are hoarding cash and gold. 

The hopeful and the fearful 

The beacon hopeful investors are following is best symbolized by analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, who describe current market conditions as “primed for Q1 2020 net asset melt-up”, based on continued monetary easing (central bank asset purchases, low interest rates) and a pending resolution to the trade war. A first-round trade agreement between the US and China was reached last Friday. 

While roughly two in three investors polled in October said they see the global economy getting worse in 2020, in November a little more than half think the economy will improve next year. 

Friday, December 20, 2019

Gold in Indian Rupees, the USD and the Many Non-USD Currencies / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: P_Radomski_CFA

We started yesterday’s analysis with the investigation of the Euro Index and gold price in this European currency. Today, we’ll take a moment to analyze the gold market from the Indian point of view. Gold has a special place in the Indian history and culture, India is the second biggest “consumer” of gold (right after China). USA’s gold consumption is third biggest in the world, but it’s less than one fourth of the Indian gold consumption. This means that to a considerable extent, the Indian gold buyers can influence gold’s fundamental situation.

Moreover, India is the second-largest English-speaking country (US comes in first with 268 million English speakers, while about 125 million people speak English in India). Since we’re writing in English and about gold, it’s only natural to discuss the Indian side of the gold market. And by that, we mean taking a closer look at gold’s price in the Indian rupee.

In the recent years the value of the Indian currency has declined compared to the value of the U.S. dollar, and so did gold. This mean that if you live in India, you have yet another reason to be holding gold and one less reason to worry that gold is going to decline profoundly. Yet, the situation is not that simple. After all, the huge value increases in the USD Index translated into declines in gold that were even bigger. This means that from the non-USD point of view, for instance from the Indian point of view, gold price still declined. Where does that lead us to?

Friday, December 20, 2019

Gold and Lagarde – Friends or Foes? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

A week ago, Lagarde chaired the monetary policy meeting of the Governing Council of the ECB for the first time. An insightful press conference followed in the footsteps. What will her presidency imply for the ECB’s policy and the gold market precisely?

Key Takeaways From First Lagarde Monetary Policy Meeting as ECB President

Last Thursday, the ECB held its December monetary policy meeting. The central bank maintained its stance steady, keeping the interest rates unchanged. However, the ECB has revised slightly down the outlook for real GDP growth for 2020, while the outlook for HICP inflation went slightly up.

Friday, December 20, 2019

Gold GLD Could Be On The Verge Of a Breakout / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Avi_Gilburt

With many stocks moving higher in breakout fashion already, silver and GLD have been lagging. But, that may come to an end shortly.

You see, silver seems to be setting up in a micro i-ii structure off the recent lows, whereas GLD is still below its last week high. However, even though GLD is below its last week high, the action we have seen lately has been quite corrective. So, this makes me lean towards an imminent break out more so than an imminent break down. But, we still need to see that follow through over last week’s high to confirm that.

Friday, December 20, 2019

Understanding Gold (and Silver) Comes from the Heart, Not the Brain / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: MoneyMetals

The title of this essay is part of a statement made by Stewart Thomson, editor of the investment letter, Graceland Updates. His full comment reads, “It takes more than viewing charts and government debt numbers to understand gold as the world’s ultimate asset. What it really takes comes from the heart, not the brain.”

For thousands of years, humankind has understood the magical draw (and sense of security) that owning precious metal can bring.

It satisfies the core requirements that make it a medium of exchange par excellence.

It's durable. It's divisible. It's consistent. It's convenient. It's intrinsically valuable.

Friday, December 20, 2019

Gold, USD and the Euro: the Signs Ahead / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Brexit has become very likely due to result of the UK vote. But so what (gold- and currency-wise)? The uncertainty dropped significantly, and markets were able to sign a breath of relief (bearish for gold), but on the other hand Brexit itself increases the geopolitical turmoil (bullish for gold). Gold didn’t react decisively in the short run overall, but the European currencies: the euro, and the pound rallied. In the first part of today’s analysis, we’ll focus on what happened in the euro and how the forex situation fits the other gold price predictions.

Let’s start with the long-term chart featuring gold price in terms of the euro.

Friday, December 20, 2019

Here’s the One Gold Chart to Watch / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

In recent weeks we’ve noted the positive developments in the gold stocks despite the sector being in a period of correction. 

Last week we shared the idea that the next impulsive move in gold stocks might begin when the correction in the metals ends. 

In this article, I’m going to share the one chart which I think will help us time that next move higher. 

In recent years I have repeatedly noted the importance of the Gold against the S&P 500 ratio chart. It is going to be challenging to see Gold make a considerable move higher without it outperforming the stock market.

Thursday, December 19, 2019

Gold’s Appeal Now That Brexit Uncertainty and China Trade War for Global Economy Are Gone / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

China and the U.S. have reached a preliminary agreement, which softens their trade war, while the landslide victory of Conservative Party in the UK parliamentary elections clears the path to Brexit. Given that downside risks for the global economy are now significantly lower, how much do investors still need gold?

UK Parliamentary Elections and Gold

On Thursday, the British people voted in another snap parliamentary election (the third such since 2015) called by Boris Johnson in October due to increasing parliamentary deadlock over Brexit. The Conservative Party won a landslide victory. The Tories got 43,6 percent of votes which translated into 365 seats. It means a net gain of 48 seats since 2017 elections. As a result, the Johnson’s party won with a majority of 80 seats, the highest since 1987. The Scottish National Party also gained seats which can lead to the second referendum on Scotland’s independence in the future. In contrast, the Labor Party performed disastrously, losing 60 seats, which was their worst result in more than 80 years. Jeremy Corbyn, the party’s leader, has already said he will step down early next year.

Tuesday, December 17, 2019

Weaponizing the Dollar; Gold Mining Stocks Chart Path to Breakout / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: MoneyMetals

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s comments on inflation last Wednesday added fuel to the contra-dollar trade.

During a press conference following the Fed’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged, Powell said, “In order to move rates up, I would want to see inflation that's persistent and that's significant. A significant move up in inflation that's also persistent...

"To move inflation expectations up from where they are, which appears to be a bit below 2%, will not happen overnight."

In other words, the Fed won’t be satisfied until consumer prices rise much higher over time.

Monday, December 16, 2019

Precious Metals, Copper, CRB Commodity Markets Step By Step , Inch by Inch / Commodities / Gambling

By: Rambus_Chartology

Tonight I would like to update some commodities charts we haven’t looked at in a while. There have been some subtle changes taking place that need to be addressed. Just like the PM complex that topped out in 2011 many commodities also topped out that same year and have been correcting ever since. With the US dollar at an important inflection point it may be time for commodities in general to show some relative strength which they haven’t done for a very long time.

Lets start with this very long term monthly combo chart which has the CRB index on top with the US dollar in the middle and gold on the bottom. Back in April of 2011 the CRB index topped out while the US dollar bottomed out exactly at the same time with gold topping out 5 months later in September. As you can see there is a mild correlation between the CRB and gold with their 2011 trendline both sloping down while the US dollar is sloping up.

Sunday, December 15, 2019

Gold Stocks Vs Gold – Not A Good Bet / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Kelsey_Williams

Earlier this year,  various gold stock indices (XAU, HUI, GDX) gained more than fifty percent in just three months. Most of the negativity associated with the sector was brushed aside and replaced by positive expectations for the future.

Of course, the 90-day rush to this year’s highs did not occur in a vacuum. The price of gold rose by twenty percent over the same three-month period. The mining shares, however were considerably stronger.

Going back to the fall of 2018, the price of gold increased by thirty percent and gold mining shares increased by about sixty-five percent. The resulting differential of more than 2-to-1 in favor of the mining shares lends possible credence to the argument for shares over bullion.

Sunday, December 15, 2019

Silver Price Remains in 'Corrective Downtrend' / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: The_Gold_Report

Technical analyst Clive Maund charts the longer term picture for silver.

Like gold, silver has been in a corrective downtrend following its peak early in September, and it looks like it has further to run before its done, partly of course because we have a downside target for gold in the $1360–$1400 area before it turns up.

On the 6-month month we can see how it has been stumbling lower within a downtrend and it looks like it will break down through the lower boundary of this downtrend to drop to a final downside target probably at support in the $15.30–$15.60 area. It outperformed gold during the summer run up and has underperformed on the subsequent reaction, which is normal, and as we know, silver is weaker than gold during the early stages of a bull market, so this near-term downside target seems reasonable.

Friday, December 13, 2019

Beware Gold Stocks Downside / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019

By: Zeal_LLC

The gold miners’ stocks have largely been consolidating high following last summer’s powerful upleg.  That resilience has left sentiment relatively bullish, with traders mostly expecting this sector to soon start surging again.  But the jury is still out on whether gold stocks will be lucky enough to evade a bigger correction.  Major downside risks still abound, primarily in gold which dominates gold-stock price trends.

The reversal in gold-stock fortunes this year has been radical.  This is readily evident in their leading benchmark, the GDX VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF.  Comprised of the world’s largest gold miners, GDX is this sector’s most-popular trading vehicle.  The gold miners weren’t faring well for most of the first half of 2019, with GDX down 4.4% year-to-date in early May.  Traders wanted nothing to do with gold stocks.

That sector slump reflected a lack of enthusiasm for gold, which was down 0.9% YTD.  The gold stocks are effectively leveraged plays on gold, as their earnings really amplify changes in prevailing gold levels.  But as May ended, some surprising news started sparking life back into the moribund gold realm.  Trump threatened to impose big tariffs on Mexico until it stopped illegal immigration across the US southern border.

Friday, December 13, 2019

Fed Says No Interest Rate Hikes In 2020. What About Gold? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The Fed kept the interest rates unchanged in December. The statement was rather hawkish, while the dot-plot rather dovish. What does such a mix imply for the yellow metal?

Fed Keeps Interest Rates Unchanged

Yesterday, the FOMC published the monetary policy statement from its latest meeting that took place on December 10-11th. In line with expectations, the U.S. central bank left the federal funds rate unchanged at 1.50 to 1.75 percent:

Thursday, December 12, 2019

Silver Miners Pinpoint the Precious Metals’ Outlook / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Very little happened in the precious metals market both yesterday and in today’s pre-market trading – at least so far. We will take this opportunity to discuss something that we haven’t done in a while – silver stocks. To be clear, we’re not going to discuss the silver mining stock selection, as that’s something our proprietary algorithms do on a daily basis. And yes, during the recent long trade, the gain on the individual gold and silver miners was bigger than the one from the GDX ETF.

Instead, we’re going to take a look at this sector’s performance and compare it to one very similar case from the past. Yes, just one, which may not looks like an appropriate base for drawing conclusions, but the level of similarity makes it definitely relevant to the current situation. So, without further ado, let’s take a closer look at the SIL ETF – the proxy for silver miners.

Wednesday, December 11, 2019

Gold ETF Holdings Surge… But Do They Actually Hold Gold? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: MoneyMetals

Gold-linked exchange-traded products are growing in popularity with investors. Assets held by gold ETFs have grown 38% globally in 2019.
In October, according to the World Gold Council, gold ETFs attracted $1.9 billion in net inflows to reach a new record high total gold holding of 2,900 tonnes – at least on paper.

There is good reason to be skeptical of whether all these “gold” vehicles actually hold physical metal sufficient to back their market capitalizations on a 1:1 basis. Some of them very well might; others almost certainly don’t.

Wednesday, December 11, 2019

Gold, Silver Reversals, Lower Prices and Our Precious Profits / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Gold, silver, and mining stocks reversed practically exactly at their double triangle reversal point and the short positions that we opened along with taking profits off the table from the previous long positions, became profitable almost instantly. There’s quite a decline to catch here, and it seems that only a small part thereof had already taken place.

Tuesday, December 10, 2019

Lumber is about to rally and how to play it with this ETF / Commodities / Lumber

By: Chris_Vermeulen

WOOD, one of the Ishares ETF symbols related to the Real Estate and Construction sectors may become the next hottest instrument for skilled technical traders.  Over the past three years, Wood has rallied over 110% between a $40 to $84 range and the trading volume of WOOD has been relatively consistent near an average of about 140k shares per week.  Let’s dig into the opportunities that may present themselves over the next 6 to 12+ months in WOOD.

First, you can get more information about this iShares ETF here.

Second, the WOOD ETF is relatively closely correlated to the US Real Estate and Construction sectors. Thus, when economic data is announced that supports growing Real Estate and Construction activity, traders can easily translate that into forward expectations in price in the WOOD ETF.  For the purposed of this article, we’ll stick with a simple example of New Private Housing Unit Building Permits data from the St. Louis Federal Reserve.

Monday, December 09, 2019

Long-term Potential for Gold Remains Strong! / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: MarketsToday

• Technical analysis update for the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD).
• Long-term bullish continuation anticipated once current correction is completed.
• Looks like a deeper retracement may come in the near-term, before resumption of the rally.