Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Monday, September 16, 2019

What If Gold Is NOT In A New Bull Market? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Kelsey_Williams

What if it’s not a new bull market for gold? What if gold prices are going lower – not higher?

Think it can’t happen? Think again.

In December 1987, gold prices stood at just over $500.00 per ounce. They had been on a tear for the previous three years after hitting a post-peak low of just under $300.00 per ounce in February 1985.

The increase in gold’s price of $200.00 per ounce may not sound like much, but it represents a sixty-seven percent increase over that three year period. Coming on the heels of a similar percentage decline after reaching an all-time high of $850.00 per ounce in January 1980, it was a welcome salve for those who had been wounded so severely.

Sunday, September 15, 2019

Will Draghi’s Swan Song Revive the Eurozone? And Gold? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

It was a hot monetary policy meeting yesterday. Faced with slow inflation and bleak growth, the ECB eased again, delivering a fresh stimulus package. What does it mean for the gold market?

ECB Strikes Back in Response to Subdued Inflation

Amid the continued shortfall of inflation, the ECB cut its deposit rate by 10 basis points from -0.40 to -0.50. Yes, you read it correctly, from negative 0.40 to negative 0.50. The subzero madness has deepened in the Eurozone. What is more, the central bank announced that the ultralow interest rates would remain until inflation reaches the target:

Friday, September 13, 2019

Crude Oil Price Setting Up For A Downside Price Rotation / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Crude Oil has been trading in a fairly narrow range since mid-August – between $52 and $57 ppb.  Our Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) predictive modeling system suggested the downside price move in late July/early August was expected and the current support aligns very well with our ADL predictions of higher price rotation throughout most of September/October.  Please take a minute to review the original research post below :

Friday, September 13, 2019

A “Looming” Recession Is a Gold Golden Opportunity / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: MoneyMetals

It’s the most widely anticipated recession in history. The recession hasn’t arrived yet – and may not do so anytime soon – but the mainstream media still can’t stop talking about it.

Consider this strange article from NBC News. It purports to show that young adults are posting dark, ironic memes to social media in reaction to a “possible recession looming.” It’s a possible, undated, undefined downturn of unknown severity that millennials are supposedly now coping with in advance!

CNN, meanwhile, sees “signs of a potential looming recession” – more severe in scope, presumably, than the network’s actual viewer ratings recession.

Friday, September 13, 2019

Is 2019 Similar to 2007? What Does It Mean For Gold? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The Fed cut the interest rates at the end of July. As the previous easing cycle started in September 2007, many analysts are saying that the current year looks more and more like 2007. We invite you to read our today’s article that compares the current year with 2007 and find out what are the implications for the gold market.

The Fed cut the interest rates at the end of July. As the previous easing cycle started in September 2007, many analysts are saying that the current year looks more and more like 2007. We invite you to read our today’s article that compares the current year with 2007 and find out what are the implications for the gold market.

The recent Fed’s interest rate cut has been the first such since December 2008, when the U.S. central bank slashed the federal funds rate to almost zero. However, the Fed started its previous easing cycle in September 2007, when it cut interest rates by 50 basis points amid the severe slump in housing prices. Is this why many analysts are saying that the current year looks more and more like 2007? Are they right? And what would it mean for the gold market?

Friday, September 13, 2019

Energy Sector Reaches Key Low Point – Start Looking For The Next Move / Commodities / Energy Resources

By: Chris_Vermeulen

The Energy Sector ETF has been on fire recently with big price trends.  We called a bottom/buy trigger in ERY in early July that resulted in a nearly +20% rally.  Then, on August 29th, we called for ERY to rotate lower, targeting the $46 to $47 level – setting up another price momentum base before another attempt to move higher.  You can read that research post here :

Friday, September 13, 2019

Weakening Shale Productivity "VERY Bullish" For Oil Prices / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

After years of improvements in drilling techniques and impressive "efficiency gains," there is now evidence that the U.S. shale industry is reaching the end of the road on well productivity.

A report earlier this month from Raymond James & Associates finds that the U.S. shale industry may struggling to achieve further productivity gains. If these improvements begin to fizzle out, it could result in "an inflection point in future global oil supply/demand balances," the investment bank said.

Thursday, September 12, 2019

Gold under NIRP? | Negative Interest Rates vs Bullion / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Submissions

President Trump today called for the Federal Reserve to drop interest rates to zero and beyond into negative interest rate policy levels. 

Some onlookers might be shocked to see this strong suggestion by the USA's commander and chief.

Thursday, September 12, 2019

Gold at Support: the Upcoming Move / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Gold and gold stocks declined yesterday, but silver hesitated. Does this, plus the fact that gold is up so far in today’s pre-market trading indicate a short-term bottom? Or is the picture even on the verge of turning bullish?

Not at all. Let’s take a look at the chart below for details.

Wednesday, September 11, 2019

Precious Metals, US Dollar: How It All Relates – Part I / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

The recent movement in the precious metals markets, an incredible 33% upside price move since August 2018, has reflected an increased level of fear and greed throughout the global markets.  Particularly, throughout the foreign markets.  Precious metals, specifically Gold, has skyrocketed to some of the highest levels in recent times as foreign currencies devalue against the US Dollar.  Still, consumers, institutions and central governments/banks are buying as much as they can right now.

Wednesday, September 11, 2019

Bank of England’s Carney Delivers Dollar Shocker at Jackson Hole meeting / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Michael_J_Kosares

Bank of England governor Mark Carney, in something of a shocker, told the recent Jackson Hole central bankers’ conference that the world’s reliance on the US dollar ‘won’t hold’ and needs to be replaced by a new international monetary and financial system based on many more global currencies,” according to a Financial Times report. The greatest impact of Carney’s bombshell, though, came not from his opinion on the look and feel of some futuristic global monetary system. It came instead from his seeming tacit approval of the escalating movement to dethrone the dollar as the world’s reserve currency in the here and now. A good many in that audience were no doubt surprised – even rattled – by Carney’s remarks.

“Something is going on,” said St. Louis Fed President James Bullard in a Financial Times report, “and that’s causing I think a total rethink of central banking and all our cherished notions of what we think we’re doing. We just have to stop thinking that next year things are going to be normal.” To which FT added: “Interest rates are not going back up anytime soon, the role of the dollar is under scrutiny – both as a haven asset and as a medium of exchange – and trade uncertainty has become a permanent feature of policymaking.”

Wednesday, September 11, 2019

Gold and Silver Wounded Animals, Indeed / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Clive_Maund

Sector expert Michael Ballanger offers his observations of recent activity in the gold and silver markets. "The permabulls will tell you that the bullion banks and their treasury department conspirators have lost all power in this 'new paradigm' and we should relax and refrain from worry. I tend to disagree because wounded animals are the singular most dangerous of all creatures on this debt-ravaged planet, and with gold at $1,552, these cartel cretins are now wounded, angry and very desperate animals." —Michael Ballanger, Sept. 2, 2019; silver at $19.00 one day before the top

OK, so now that there is zero doubt surrounding the recent demise of the bullion banks, I was reminded yesterday (amidst the gnarling and gnashing of many a silver bulls' incisors) of a famous Mark Twain quote surrounding rumors of his passing: "The reports of my death are greatly exaggerated."

That is exactly the reply of the criminal cartel last week as bullion bank shenanigans took a page out of the Carpe Diem playbook and absolutely pounded the precious metals with such feral ferocity that they quite predictably set off a retail panic of the highest order. One very prominent gold and silver bull tweeted out, "It should be noted that Crimex silver is still up on the week!", to which I quickly and cynically replied, "Tell that to my margin clerk."

Wednesday, September 11, 2019

Gold Significant Correction Has Started / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Clive_Maund

Technical analyst Clive Maund discusses the factors he sees pulling gold down. Although a major precious metals sector bull market has certainly started, various fundamental and technical factors came together last week to suggest that a significant correction to the recent strong run-up has now started.

The main fundamental development was the announcement that there will be a Trade War summit between China and the U.S. early next month, with hopes being expressed that this may lead to compromise or some kind of truce. Whilst the chances of improvement may be slim, the market has got what it wants for now which is hope, and this hope should continue at least until this meeting, which provides the excuse for the markets to go "risk on" until then, which is why the stock market broke higher last week, delaying but not eliminating our crash scenario.

A return to "risk on" is clearly not good for the precious metals, which, until last week, had been benefiting from a flight to safety as had the dollar, creating the unusual situation where the dollar and gold were rising at the same time. Now, in a risk on environment they are suddenly out of favor again.

In addition to this fundamental argument we have a range of technical indicators pointing to a correction in the precious metals sector that we will now look at. They include its overbought status, overly bullish sentiment readings and COTs showing extreme readings.

Wednesday, September 11, 2019

Silver's Sharp Reaction Back / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Clive_Maund

Silver reacted back sharply on Thursday and Friday after a parabolic blowoff top. This was not a final top, but it does indicate that silver needs to take a rest and consolidate/react back, probably for at least several weeks.

Tuesday, September 10, 2019

Gold to Correct as Stocks Rally / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

It has taken a few weeks to play out but our warning of a correction in precious metals (first on August 18) is coming to pass. 

Last week Gold, Silver and GDX all formed big bearish reversals at multi-year resistance levels. Yes, these resistance levels (Gold $1550, Silver $18.50, GDX 31) date back to 2013.

Bonds and precious metals have benefitted from the shift in Fed policy as well as fears of recession and growth in negative interest rate bonds. 

These drivers could pause or shift temporarily and that would be supportive of stocks and not precious metals. Let me explain.

Monday, September 09, 2019

Buying Pullbacks in Silver & Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Avi_Gilburt

By Andy Hecht : After a very bullish summer, it was a week of reversals in the metals markets. The impact of gravity hit the gold and silver markets late last week after both had made new highs. Meanwhile, copper went the other way as the early week new low led to a significant price recovery by the end of the week.

The daily chart of December gold futures highlights the move to a marginal new high at $1566.20 on September 4 that gave way to the selling that dropped price by over $50. Gold has held the $1500 level so far, but time will tell if the reversal on the weekly chart brings a new wave of selling next week.

Monday, September 09, 2019

Large Drop in Stocks, Big Rally in Gold and Silver / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Brad_Gudgeon

The week ahead, looks treacherous for the stock market, but should be a boon for gold, silver and share mining stocks. The cycles, waves and astro aspects are coming together nicely for a possible quick 6% drop on the S&P 500.

The SPX chart below shows the 16 TD top on Sept 5, along with a first quarter moon and Bradley turn. We are going into the 5/35 week cycle low in a 4 year cycle low from late 2015 due Monday-Friday (9/9-13).  These usually go lower than the previous 10 week low that occurred on Aug 5. I don’t believe we go much below 2780 as an extreme target, perhaps as much as 42 points below the August 5 low of 2822.

Sunday, September 08, 2019

Precious Metals Were Ripe for a Pullback / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Gary_Tanashian

If you hear one peep out of the gold community about a precious metals “take down”, “attack” or any other such aggressive or war-like language you will then be hearing some old fashioned and promotional gold bug orthodoxy. Fortunately, a casual look around the Bug-o-Sphere does not yield too many obvious conspiracy theorists or importantly, cheerleaders.

Indeed, it seems that all too many bugs expected this correction in gold, silver and the miners. That is a good thing because when the real top comes these ladies are going to be out front and greed will be running rampant (quite possibly against a negative fundamental or valuation backdrop as in 2008).

Instead, everybody it seems knew about the high risk Commitments of Traders situation for gold and silver. The CoT is not a timer, but for weeks now it had been a condition that’s been in place for a correction. It’s not a “take down”, it’s a condition of too much speculation that had to be addressed. Now it is. Other CoT data available here.

Saturday, September 07, 2019

Fed’s Cut Puzzle and Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

At the end of July, the Fed trimmed the federal funds rate. However, the dovish U-turn within the FOMC amid solid US economy remains a mystery. We invite you to read our today’s article about the Fed’s cut puzzle and its find out what does it mean for the gold market.

At the end of July, the Fed trimmed the federal funds rate. However, the dovish U-turn within the FOMC – just half a year after an interest rate hike – remains a mystery. After all, the data indicates that the labor market remains strong – unemployment rate is still at the record low – while the GDP has been rising at a moderate rate. While the inflation rate is below the target, it’s still significantly above the deflation zone. So why the heck did the Fed cut rates? The answer to this question is of great importance as long-term implications for gold differ depending on the possible reason.

First, the U.S. central bank could lower interest rates because Powell could not stand the pressure of the White House and the merciless tweets of Donald Trump. The Fed is, of course, nominally independent, but investors should not be naïve. The past presidents and policymakers also applied pressure on the Fed. The most famous example is the story how in 1965, President Lyndon Johnson summoned William McChesney Martin, the Fed Chairman, to his Texas ranch where Johnson physically shoved him around living room, yelling in his face, “Boys are dying in Vietnam, and Bill Martin doesn’t care.” The only difference is that past presidents tended to stick to creating pressure behind closed doors, while Trump is simply more public. If true, it would be a very positive scenario for gold prices. The politicians love low interest rates, and Trump is a particularly vocal supporter of cheap money.

Saturday, September 07, 2019

Gold Stocks Very Overbought / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019

By: Zeal_LLC

The gold miners’ stocks have grown very overbought after soaring dramatically higher in recent months.  Blasting really far really fast has left this sector really stretched technically and sentimentally.  Excessive gains and greed always soon lead to major corrective selloffs, which are necessary to restore balance.  All bull markets, even the most powerful, flow and ebb.  Big uplegs are inevitably followed by corrections.

With gold and gold stocks plunging hard Thursday morning, the timing of this research thread is certainly lucky.  My weekly-web-essay workflow is well-defined, this happens to be the 877th I’ve written.  I have to decide on each week’s topic by early Wednesdays, to do the research and build necessary spreadsheets and charts that day.  Then I write and proof these essays Thursdays, so they can be published early Fridays.

Even before this latest bout of selling erupted, the serious downside risks facing overbought gold stocks were readily apparent.  According to virtually every technical indicator out there, this sector was looking ever-more extreme in recent weeks.  The longer and farther gold stocks surged, the greater the odds for a selloff.  I warned about this Saturday morning in the conclusion to our latest monthly newsletter for subscribers.