Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Sunday, January 21, 2024
Which Countries Have the Most Gold? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024
By: MoneyMetals
Which countries have the most gold?
Central banks around the world have aggressively added gold to their reserves over the last several years.
In 2022, central bank gold buying came in at 1,136 tons. It was the highest level of net purchases on record dating back to 1950, including since the suspension of dollar convertibility into gold in 1971. It was the 13th straight year of net central bank gold purchases.
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Friday, January 19, 2024
Gold Builds Support at $2,000; What's Next? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024
By: MoneyMetals
Gold appears to have built solid support above $2,000 an ounce, but momentum to move higher in the short term has eased with uncertainty about the timing of Federal Reserve rate cuts.
But short-term sentiment aside, there are plenty of reasons to remain bullish on the yellow metal.
The Fed appeared to surrender to inflation at its December meeting. While the central bank held rates steady, it signaled three rate cuts for 2024 with another four cuts in 2025. That would lower rates to between 2 and 2.5 percent.
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Friday, January 19, 2024
Bitcoin Is No Substitute for Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024
By: MoneyMetals
With Bitcoin making the news last week when the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) finally approved exchange traded funds, it’s a good time to review the topic again.
Bitcoin still offers the potential to serve as a form of honest money and to end-run the central bankers and politicians who have abused the fiat system so badly.
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Friday, December 22, 2023
Hey, Remember About Gold Price’s Powerful Reversal? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Gold price has been falling in today’s pre-market trading, but… Given the recent (HUGE!) weekly reversal, does it really surprise anyone?
The Historical Context
Well, it might surprise those that easily forget what happened in the previous weeks and focus on just the day-to-day price swings, but the truth is that the context provided by previous weeks, months, and years (and the performance of other markets!) matters a lot.
I previously wrote about some details coming from the broader perspective and some from the immediate-term analysis, and all that remains true. The recent weekly reversal was so huge that its impact on the next weeks really needs to be kept in mind at all times. It’s not likely that a daily price moves in any direction (especially that gold is lower today…) would invalidate the implications of the powerful weekly (!) reversal.
Tuesday, December 12, 2023
Silver Price Still Underperforming Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023
By: Submissions
While the yellow metal hit a new record high, the silver price remains below its post-pandemic peak.
Recession Risks Loom Over Silver
While gold has dominated the headlines recently, silver and mining stocks have been material underperformers. And with the latter better barometers of investors’ enthusiasm, their relative weakness should concern the permabulls.
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Friday, December 01, 2023
Gold Shines as the Economic Outlook Darkens / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023
By: Submissions
While looser monetary policy may seem bullish in the short term, the medium-term ramifications could upend the yellow metal.
Recession Pessimism Ahead
The ‘bad news is good news’ trade continues to dominate the financial markets, as weaker economic data is perceived as bullish for risk assets. In a nutshell: if the Fed pivots and ends QT, all of investors’ problems will disappear. However, while the narrative has helped gold, an ominous economic backdrop should result in much lower prices in the months ahead.
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Tuesday, November 28, 2023
Stocks and Silver Have Something to Say about Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Silver just shot up, and given what the stock market is doing, it makes perfect sense.
Namely, it’s most likely the final part of the rally in them both, and the same is the case for gold and mining stocks.
Tuesday, November 28, 2023
Cameco Uranium Stock Hits All-Time High / Commodities / Uranium
By: The_Energy_Report
Cameco Corp. (CCO:TSX; CCJ:NYSE) — the godfather of the uranium trade — has moved to all-time highs, with the spot price hitting US$80.00/lb.
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Sunday, November 26, 2023
A Golden Setup: Gold Price Trend Forecast Report / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023
By: EWI
Hi,
Gold has long been seen as the refuge for investors who are concerned about economic downturns and inflation. And it's tempting to attribute the metal's price movements to factors like supply and demand, the dollar and interest rates.
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Sunday, November 26, 2023
Gold Stocks Winter Seasonal Rally / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2023
By: Zeal_LLC
Gold stocks have mostly ground lower to sideways since spring, leaving this contrarian sector really out of favor again. Yet both the metal and its miners’ stocks are early on in their strongest seasonal rallies of the year. From late October to late February, gold tends to enjoy excellent gains which the gold stocks leverage. Given 2023’s great winter-rally setup, gold’s bullish seasonals should prove potent tailwinds ahead.
Seasonality is the tendency for prices to exhibit recurring patterns at certain times during the calendar year. While seasonality doesn’t drive price action, it quantifies annually-repeating behaviors driven by sentiment, technicals, and fundamentals. We humans are creatures of habit and herd, which naturally colors our trading decisions. The calendar year’s passage affects the timing and intensity of buying and selling.
Gold stocks display strong seasonality because their price action amplifies that of their dominant primary driver, gold. Gold’s seasonality generally isn’t driven by supply fluctuations like grown commodities see, as its mined supply remains relatively steady year-round. Instead gold’s major seasonality is demand-driven, with global investment demand varying considerably depending on the time in the calendar year.
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Wednesday, November 22, 2023
Copper/Gold Ratio: Still Counter-Cyclical / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023
By: Gary_Tanashian
The Copper/Gold ratio has been indicating an oncoming counter-cyclical environment since breaking down in June, 2022
Copper: Cyclical, inflation sensitive and a material of positive economic progress.
Gold: Much more counter-cyclical, less inflation sensitive and a ‘liquidity haven’ material of long-term monetary value.
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Saturday, November 18, 2023
Silver Price Between a Rock and a Hard Place / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023
By: Submissions
Caught between conflicting forces, will pivot optimism outweigh the economic malaise that should unfold in the months ahead?
A Short-Lived Rally?
From war premiums to pivot hopes, silver sees sunny skies, as the international and domestic fundamental outlooks increase investors’ enthusiasm , as the international and domestic fundamental outlooks increase investors’ enthusiasm. However, the excitement is misguided, as silver often declines precipitously when recessions arrive. And with an economic downturn poised to bite in 2024, the white metal’s recent rally could be short-lived.For example, the University of Michigan released its Index of Consumer Sentiment on Nov. 10. Director Joanne Hsu said:
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Wednesday, November 08, 2023
Gold, Silver, Precious Metals Slide Re-starts / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023
By: P_Radomski_CFA
As the concern with geopolitics peaked, so did gold price. Silver and mining follow. Are you prepared for the likely outcome?
Gold Peaks and Slides
In my yesterday’s analysis, I wrote the following about gold:
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Saturday, November 04, 2023
Gold Stocks Lagging / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2023
By: Zeal_LLC
The gold miners’ stocks are lagging gold’s strong young upleg, their gains falling behind. Their striking performance gap is undermining gold-stock sentiment, leaving traders even warier of this sector. While definitely vexing, this anomaly has only arisen over the past couple weeks. Gold stocks’ precedent during past major gold uplegs implies this will unwind soon, with miners surging fast to catch up with their metal.
Gold has been blasting higher on balance for a month now, confirming a new major upleg is underway. While the sparking catalyst was certainly geopolitical, gold’s upside since has been fueled by the normal sequential buying pattern driving all major uplegs. That’s stage-one gold-futures short-covering buying, then larger stage-two gold-futures long buying, then ultimately vast stage-three investment buying returning.
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Saturday, November 04, 2023
Gold Holds Firms as World Braces for Financial Turmoil, War / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023
By: MoneyMetals
As the Federal Reserve puts a hold on interest rates, investors have to ask themselves whether the elevated inflation rate is also on hold.The Fed’s preferred measure of so-called “core” inflation, which excludes food and energy costs, most recently came in at 3.7%. Despite having fallen substantially since last year’s peak, the official inflation rate has yet to approach the Fed’s 2% target.
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Friday, November 03, 2023
Sad Silver Price Lags Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023
By: Submissions
With the economic backdrop continuing to deteriorate, silver’s bull case has become increasingly fragile.
Ominous Signs Ahead
While silver has bounced off its recent lows, the white metal continues to underperform gold. And when volatile areas of the precious metals market showcase weakness (silver and mining stocks) it’s often an ominous sign for the entire sector.
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Saturday, October 28, 2023
Gold Should Heed Mining Socks Warning / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2023
By: Submissions
While geopolitical conflict has kept gold afloat, mining stocks’ weakness signals trouble ahead.
Economic Recession Looms
While risk assets attempt to break free of their bearish corrections, gold’s relative outperformance has the yellow metal shining bright. Despite that, we’ve booked 11-straight profitable trades, and our 12th (currently open) remains in the green. As a result, our success highlights why mining stocks are often better trading instruments than the yellow metal.
Furthermore, while gold has largely sidestepped the recent risk rout, a recession is bearish for nearly all assets, and gold should suffer mightily if (when) the economic pain unfolds.
For example, S&P Global released its U.S. Composite PMI on Oct. 25. And while the headline results were decent and it outperformed expectations, weakness was present beneath the surface. An excerpt read:
Friday, October 27, 2023
Will Gold Mining Stocks Look Past Q3? / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2023
By: Gary_Tanashian
Gold mining stock charts have not yet confirmed a sustainable rally, and Q3 fundamentals may be a headwind
We have used this daily chart of the gold stock ETF, GDX in written and video updates to keep NFTRH subscribers apprised of the progress of the bounce from the early October low (after previously using the chart to manage the long correction that began with the May double top).
Let’s update the daily technical situation by noting that the GDX rally has halted where it should have halted, as we’ve expected resistance at or below the 200 day moving average (30.49) and/or clear visual resistance at 30. The pullback is in progress and has done a good thing by filling the upper gap as it grinds and tests the 50 day moving average. All normal.
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Friday, October 20, 2023
As Geopolitical Fires Obscure Commodities' Path / Commodities / Commodities Trading
By: EWI
Crisis, crisis everywhere. But objective, free from the noise of the news, forecasting of commodity prices starts here, with our free Special Report ($155 value).
The geopolitical landscape is wracked. War in Ukraine, humanitarian crisis in Syria, and now, what Vox Media on October 15 called the "worst conflict in decades" between Israel and Hamas. For mainstream analysts who use news as the main predictor of price trends, the escalating tensions have "cast a shadow of uncertainty over global financial markets." (Oct. 11 Moneycontrol)
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Sunday, October 08, 2023
Silver Bulls Are the Walking Wounded / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023
By: Submissions
Silver has been a major underperformer in recent months, as the white metal proved no match for higher real yields and a stronger USD Index.
With silver gunning for its 2023 lows, the recent sell-off has done severe technical damage. And while the weakness has been a boon for our GDXJ ETF short position, silver could enjoy a meaningful bounce in the weeks ahead. Yet, the technicals are much better than the fundamentals at uncovering support and resistance, and our premium Gold Trading Alert has all of those details.