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Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Commodities

Monday, March 18, 2019

Best Precious Metals Investment and Trades for 2019 / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

It’s been years since the gold and silver topped out in 2011. We have been waiting for a new bottom form and a new bull market to emerge for nearly 8 years. In this article, I’m going to compare palladium, gold, platinum, and silver and show you which of these precious metals I feel is the best long-term investment and also the best trade for 2019.

The analysis presented below is based on technical analysis using previous significant highs, and Fibonacci extensions. Both of these techniques work exceptionally well for predicting price targets both to the upside and also price corrections to the downside. If you have never used Fibonacci retracement or extensions in your trading I highly recommend learning more about them. I have no doubt it will improve your market price projection targets for your investments. I have found this technique to be the number one best trading tool for projecting future price movements in all asset classes.

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Commodities

Monday, March 18, 2019

Hurdles for Gold Stocks / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019

By: Gary_Tanashian

One problem for the gold stock sector was highlighted here and here evidently a little too obnoxiously for the liking of some bugs. The problem was the aggressive bullhorn sounds emanating from every orifice of the gold community the minute the charts broke upward into an obviously bullish technical state.

But while the HUI/Gold ratio has been a distinctly positive technical indicator and many bullish gold stock charts populated the sector, we had noted back in December that gold’s hysterically overbought performance vs. broad stocks was due to pull back, hopefully in an orderly consolidation. Well, the relief has dragged on and the ratio of gold to SPX and its global fellows has been consolidating alright.

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Commodities

Monday, March 18, 2019

Pento: Coming QE & Low Rates Will Be ‘Rocket Fuel for Gold’ / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: MoneyMetals

Welcome to this week’s Market Wrap Podcast, I’m Mike Gleason.

Coming up Michael Pento of Pento Portfolio Strategies joins me for a must-hear conversation on why he believes central bankers must perpetually keep interest rates near zero -- and the massive inflationary bubble economy that will likely result. Also, find out how Michael is approaching gold and gold related investments for his clients right now. Don’t miss a tremendous interview with Michael Pento, coming up after this week’s market update.

Precious metals markets are trading mixed this week as gold struggles to regain the $1,300 level. Gold prices pushed higher mid week but got pulled back down on Thursday. As of this Friday recording, the yellow metal comes in just above that key physiological level at $1,303 an ounce, up a very slight 0.3% for the week.

Silver looks lower by just a couple cents or 0.3% this week to bring spot prices to $15.36 an ounce. The platinum market shows a weekly gain of 1.6% to trade at $834. And finally, palladium is leading the precious metals pack once again – advancing 2.4% this week to trade at $1,559 per ounce.

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Commodities

Sunday, March 17, 2019

Crude Oil Bulls - For Whom the Bell Tolls / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

The oil bull still managed to score another day of gains yesterday. A meager advance but still an advance, one could say. And be forgiven, as they would not have had examined the full picture. Are we just teasing you now? Come on, there can’t be possibly more to the story... There is. The scenario that we wrote about exactly to the day two weeks ago, has come to fruition. The implications are far-reaching. Time to share.

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Commodities

Sunday, March 17, 2019

Gold Mining Stocks Fundamentals / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019

By: Zeal_LLC

The major gold miners are grinding higher in a solid upleg, fueling growing interest in this small contrarian sector.  They’ve mostly finished reporting their fourth-quarter results, revealing how they are really faring fundamentally.  Collectively the world’s biggest gold miners continue to face serious challenges, which often stem from declining production.  That makes stock picking more important than ever for investment success.

Four times a year publicly-traded companies release treasure troves of valuable information in the form of quarterly reports.  Required by the US Securities and Exchange Commission, these 10-Qs and 10-Ks contain the best fundamental data available to traders.  They dispel all the sentiment distortions inevitably surrounding prevailing stock-price levels, revealing corporations’ underlying hard fundamental realities.

While 10-Qs with filing deadlines of 40 days after quarter-ends are required for normal quarters, 10-K annual reports are instead mandated after quarters ending fiscal years.  Most gold miners logically run their accounting on calendar years, so they issue 10-Ks after Q4s.  Since these annual reports are larger and must be audited by independent CPAs, their filing deadlines are extended to 60 days after quarter-ends.

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Commodities

Saturday, March 16, 2019

Gold Final Warning: Here Are the Stunning Implications of Plunging Gold Price / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Gold has turned vigorously lower yesterday. And not only gold at that. Red, red, everywhere in precious metals you looked. The silent scream we wrote about in the Wednesday’s Alert for our subscribers brought serious repercussions. Immediately and just in time to reap the benefits. Today, we will devote extraordinary attention to the long-term view of the PMs complex.

In yesterday’s Part I, we shared with you the short-term check on precious metals sector health. That article was a limited sample of exclusive care our subscribers get on an everyday basis. Today, we will follow up with more of such a peek under the hood - another sample of what our subscribers already enjoyed yesterday. Whether you are reading this article on our website or elsewhere on the Internet, we will now share today’s full picture with you, the visitor, on the long-term charts and signals. Let’s examine whether the most recent developments changed the long-term view.

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Commodities

Friday, March 15, 2019

Countdown to The Precious Metals Gold and Silver Breakout Rally / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

If you have been following our research over the past few months, you already know that we’ve called just about every major move in Gold over the past 14+ months.  Recently, we called for Gold to rally to  $1300 area, establish a minor peak, stall and retrace back to setup a momentum base pattern.  We predicted this move to take place back in January 2019 – nearly 30+ days before it happened.

Now, we are publishing this research post to alert you that we are about 15~30 days away from the momentum base setup in Gold which will likely mirror in Silver.  Thus, we have about 20+ days to look for and target entry opportunities in both Gold and Silver before this momentum bottom/base sets up.

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Commodities

Friday, March 15, 2019

Shale Oil Splutters: Brent on Track for $70 Target $100 in 2020 / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Andrew_Butter

  • There is a sense of triumphalism in the tag-line, “U.S.A. is now a net oil exporter”. Reminiscent of “Mission Accomplished”; first it’s not true, second; what’s hiding in the wings is sinister.
  • In February, in the Permian,  Initial Production net Legacy-Loss (IPnL), which measures change in production capacity, was down 42% on the peak in May 2018
  • 98.5% of changes in IPnL can be explained by changes in trailing average oil price. That sounds blindingly obvious; but there’s a catch.
  • Shale oil output-growth affects oil prices; so there’s negative feedback-loop. What happened was legacy-loss in shale caught up, shale is still a “swing producer”; but soon they will need $70 WTI.
  • Ten years ago the Saudi’s  said $70-to-$80 Brent was “fair”, that’s what the world could afford, and what producers needed to bring in new oil, they said. They may get that, and more, soon.
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Commodities

Friday, March 15, 2019

Gold Warning - Here Are the Stunning Implications of Plunging Gold Price - Part 1 / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Gold is turning vigorously lower. And not only gold at that. Red, red, everywhere in precious metals you look. The silent scream we wrote about yesterday brought serious repercussions. In this article, we devote extraordinary attention to the short-term picture throughout the PMs complex. Stay tuned as in the coming day(s) we’ll explain here how it affects the long-term charts and the 2012-2013 – now link in gold. That will be so much more than a great and actionable summary.

Yesterday’s Alert was quick and timely as it was important to keep our subscribers informed as gold and silver approached their resistance levels. Today, both metals are moving lower in the pre-market trading- silver erased more than 48 hours of gains and gold more than 24 hours of gains.

Let’s being with a look at the overnight performance. It’s important because it shows prices are already much lower than it might appear based on the daily charts.

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Commodities

Thursday, March 14, 2019

Why the Green New Deal Will Send Uranium Price Through the Roof / Commodities / Uranium

By: Stephen_McBride

Have you heard of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez?

At 29 years old, she’s the youngest Congressperson in history.

Also known as “AOC,” Cortez is quite a sensation among young left-leaning folks. No surprise, she’s often referred to as the Democratic version of Trump. 2.4 million fans follow her on Twitter.

Like any socialist, AOC is full of “ideas.” Most of them involve taking money from one group of people and giving it to another.

She’s calling for a 70% top tax rate, for example. And free college. And giving free money to those “unwilling to work.”

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Commodities

Thursday, March 14, 2019

Gold in the Age of High-speed Electronic Trading / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Michael_J_Kosares

“The best thing you can do is know how to have a balanced portfolio.” Ray Dalio, Bridgewater Associates

“The Flash Boys story put in jeopardy billions of dollars of Wall Street profits and a way of financial life.” Michael Lewis

What’s the line in that popular song. . . .  “Are you happy in this modern world?”

In an article headlined Robots conquered stock markets/Now they’re coming for bonds and currencies, Bloomberg finance reporter Lananh Nguyen tells us: “In the most liquid equity markets, more than 90 percent of trades are executed electronically, according to estimates from Greenwich Associates. That compares with 79 percent in global foreign exchange, 44 percent in U.S. Treasuries and 26 percent in U.S. corporate bonds, with the most room for growth in the latter two markets, according to [Kevin] McPartland at Greenwich.” [Link]

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Commodities

Wednesday, March 13, 2019

NBER’s Recession Indicators and Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The question is not ‘if’ but ‘when’. This is what more and more analysts think about the US recession. We invite you to read our today’s article about the NBER’s recession indicators and find out whether the economic slump is really coming soon – and what it all means for the gold market.

Talks about a possible economic slump are getting louder. More and more analysts forecast the US recession by 2020. For example, according to December JP Morgan’s “real-time quant monitor”, the risk of a recession jumped to 35 percent , the highest in series history and up from 16 percent back in March 2018. Similarly, the respondents to the January CNBC Fed Survey put the probability of a recession in the next 12 months at 26 percent, the third straight increase and the highest since January 2016. And according to the February 2019 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey, the odds of recession starting within the next 12 months was about 25 percent, the highest level (with the exception of January 2019) since October 2011 and up from just 13 percent last year. In Reuters poll, the median probability of a recession in the next year rose from 20 percent in January to 25 percent in February. The outlook for 2020 is even dimmer, as the odds of recession over the next two years is 40 percent. Last but not least, the Philadelphia Fed’s Survey of Professional Forecasters puts the odds that economy will be shrinking in a year’s time at 23 percent, the highest level since 2008.

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Commodities

Tuesday, March 12, 2019

3 Things That Don’t Affect Price of Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

It’s important to understand Gold’s fundamentals as it will help us confirm a new bull market.

To this point, Gold’s rallies have failed to make higher highs and higher lows because, although there has been improvement in fundamentals, the fundamentals have not turned bullish yet.

The technical trigger will be Gold and gold stock outperformance of the stock market which will likely precede the fundamental catalyst of Fed rate cuts. The start of rate cuts will indicate declining real interest rates which is the key driver of bull markets in Gold.

With that said, here are some things that do not impact the price of Gold.

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Commodities

Tuesday, March 12, 2019

Gold Up-to-Date' COT Report: A Maddening Déjà Vu / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: The_Gold_Report

Precious metals expert discusses recent movements in the markets. In life, there are a distant events from one's past that embed themselves in one's memory banks in a manner and forcefulness that is directly related to their personal or historical importance. The birth of one's first child, one's first love affair or an athletic achievement fall into the "personal" category; the end of WWII, the first lunar landing or the assassination of JFK are examples of "historical" events. These events in one's lives are so crystallized in their vividness that one is many times able to recall sounds and scents from those exact points in time. Stated another way, how many times has a person had a certain song come on the radio and been memory-jogged back 20 or 30 years? In my case, the scent of hot dogs and popcorn bring to life hockey arenas and dressing rooms while the song "The Night They Drove Ol' Dixie Down" brings me immediately to the old Hamilton Mountain Arena where the Dixie Beehives won the Ontario Junior "B" championship in 1970. Fast-forward to 2019 and there is yet one more memory-etching that is transpiring: the COT report.

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Commodities

Tuesday, March 12, 2019

Palladium Blowup Could Expose Scam of Gold & Silver Futures / Commodities / Palladium

By: MoneyMetals

Welcome to this week’s Market Wrap Podcast, I’m Mike Gleason.

Coming up we’ll hear a tremendous interview with Craig Hemke of the TF Metals Report. Craig weighs in again and offers a concise and clear explanation on what’s been happening in the broken and rigged silver futures markets. And also tells us why he sees 2019 being a similar setup to what we saw in gold and silver back in 2010 and 2011 when the metals went on an historic run. Don’t miss a fantastic interview with Craig Hemke, coming up after this week’s market update.

Markets got roiled this week on some downbeat economic reports and a surge in the U.S. dollar.

The Dollar Index broke out to a 21-month high on Thursday after the European Central Bank came out swinging with more stimulus measures. The ECB indicated it intends to leave ultra-low interest rates in place at least through early 2020. That coupled with bleak new forecasts for European economic growth helped drag down the euro and give life to the dollar on foreign exchange markets.

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Commodities

Monday, March 11, 2019

Gold Price Chart Feast / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: readtheticker

If the central economic planners (CEP) lose control and the fiat monetary balance is broken, where do you hide! In the most recent years the pendulum as held firm on the side of the CEPs and central bank put (Greenspan Put, Bernanke Put, Yellen Put, Powell Put [just]) was (and is) a real thing. Now in 2019, after being sold the story the easy monetary policy can end and return to normal. The current Fed Chairman Powell even suggested this would see the US 10 yr bond near 4% while they sold down the $4T FED balance sheet at $5OBN a month, while suggesting the US economy would not even notice. 

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Commodities

Sunday, March 10, 2019

Are You Ready for the Next Big Move in Gold? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

If you were following our research, you would have known that Gold had reached a short-term peak in February. On Feb 19th the day gold posted a huge gain for the day and everyone was bullish and feeling like million bucks I did a radio show with HoweStreet’s Jim Goddard and said that strong day and overly positive sentiment was the going to be the top, which it was – Listen Here.

We had been advising our members that Gold would likely retrace below $1300 possibly beeper by and mid-April.  Our advanced Adaptive Learning price modeling systems had warned us that Gold would likely setup a price rotation before the next move higher back in January 2019.  This is what you need to know about the next 4+ weeks in Gold.

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Commodities

Sunday, March 10, 2019

Draghi Won’t Send a Rate Hike Gift to the Gold Bulls / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The ECB eased its monetary stance. It launched another round of cheap loans to banks and promised to keep interest rates unchanged this year. It means that Draghi will not hike during his presidency. What does it all mean for the gold market?

ECB Unveils New Monetary Stimulus in Response to Slowdown

The ECB left its interest rates unchanged. But it pushed out the timing of its first post-crisis rate hike until 2020 at the earliest. As we can read in the monetary policy statement.

The Governing Council now expects the key ECB interest rates to remain at their present levels at least through the end of 2019, and in any case for as long as necessary to ensure the continued sustained convergence of inflation to levels that are below, but close to, 2% over the medium term. 

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Commodities

Saturday, March 09, 2019

Should We Rethink Nuclear Power? / Commodities / Nuclear Power

By: OilPrice_Com

While it seems to fly in the face of everything we believe and have been taught about nuclear power, it may actually be the safest form of power production that we have. Ironically, the immense potency of the power of splitting an atom is simultaneously what makes nuclear weapons so dangerous as well as what makes nuclear power so safe.

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Commodities

Saturday, March 09, 2019

Palladium Hits Record High / Commodities / Palladium

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Gold is no longer the most valuable precious metal! Palladium dethroned it! We invite you, thus, to read our today’s article about that metal and find out what is the fundamental outlook for the palladium market.

We have a new record! Please take a look at the chart below, which displays the palladium prices since the beginning of the year. As one can see, the price of palladium soared in the first two months more than 20 percent, jumping above $1,500!

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