Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Friday, April 05, 2013
U.S. Treasury Bonds / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
As I scanned my charts I thought I’d got a little off the beaten track to highlight something that is deeply affecting us. That is Treasury yields.
The reason I said this is because Treasury yields may have made their Master Cycle low today, or may do so in the next few trading days. The Cycles Model captures this event by showing that yields may have been stopped at the mid-Cycle support line at 17.53. There may be a challenge or a probe lower, but the uptrend line is just beneath it, so we will know very soon whether it is successful in turning Yields back up or not. If so, the uptrend in yields is preserved.
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Friday, April 05, 2013
The First Crack In The Bond Market Is A Fact / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis 2013
By: GoldSilverWorlds
There are two main issues in the Cypriot banking crisis. The first one is related to the general principle of loans: it is axiomatic that all loans get paid either by the borrower or by the lender. This is the fundamental relationship that anyone has with the bank. When you deposit money into the bank, in your mind it is your money. In the bank’s mind, and from a legal point of view, it is a loan to the bank. If the bank makes foolish investments and loses money [including (y)ours], someone has to pay it.
Thursday, April 04, 2013
Zero Interest Rates is Not Economic Stimulus, Rather a Death Knell / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2013
By: Jim_Willie_CB
The propaganda has been thick over the last few years, especially since the US banking system suffered a fatal heart attack in September 2008. It has not recovered since, still insolvent, still wrecked, having returned a zombie center with a USTBond carry trade core and continued money laundering basement lifeline. The Jackass is tired beyond words, beyond description, of hearing that the Zero Percent Interest Policy is being kept as a stimulus measure to encourage continued economic recovery. It is neither a stimulant, nor is the USEconomy in recovery mode. The official 0% rate signals a death knell to the national financial foundation and economic vibrancy, the climax event slow in its pathogenesis following the departure from the Gold Standard in 1971. The official 0% FedFunds rate (call it 25 basis points, no matter) is a direct signal of terminal illness for the entire capitalist structures within both the United States and its Western partners who stupidly or helplessly follow its lead. They followed the US lead in the housing & mortgage bubble disaster with complete wreckage, yet they continue to follow the US monetary lead. They claim to have no choice. They do indeed have a choice, to discard the USDollar and to sell out of the USTreasury Bond, to impose a Gold Standard.
Thursday, April 04, 2013
Is the Fed Creating an Auto Subprime Loan Bubble? / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: Submissions
Terry Allen writes: Loans to subprime automobile borrowers are presently surging as a direct result of the current aggressive stimulus policies imposed by the US Federal Reserve. For example, deals instigated by car dealers soared by over 18% during 2012 involving over 6.5 million high risk borrowers. Reviews of court files by prominent market analysts have disclosed that auto subprime lenders are now one of the main reasons why so many Americans are forced to file for bankruptcy.
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Wednesday, April 03, 2013
The Only Way Forward For Europe Is Splittsville / Interest-Rates / Eurozone Debt Crisis
By: Raul_I_Meijer
Seeing Spanish and Italian bond yields drop over the past few days, it's impossible not to wonder what it is the markets, whoever they're comprised of, can't seem to figure out. Like that the Italian cloud will hang over Europe well into summer, Cyprus is falling to scandalous bits, French president Hollande is hanging on to his job for dear life because his friend and Budget minister Jerome Cahuzac was found to be an ordinary big swindler, and in Spain even the King Carlos' daughter Princess Christina is now a suspect in a financial scandal (PM Rajoy's antics will resurface soon).
Tuesday, April 02, 2013
Japan's Monetary Madness in Times of Unsustainable Deficits / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis 2013
By: Axel_Merk
Unsustainable debt. Depression-era fiscal policy. Monetary madness. Welcome to Japan. You may not live or invest in Japan, but your investments may well be affected by what is unfolding in the Land of the Rising Sun. Be prepared.
Tuesday, April 02, 2013
Central Banks Delay of Game. Five (point eight) Yards / Interest-Rates / Eurozone Debt Crisis
By: John_Mauldin
Grant Williams : Section 6 of the NFL official rulebook contains five articles, all of which deal with infringements that result in a 'delay of game' penalty.
It appears as though the powers that be frown upon the idea of players wasting time in the hope that they can hasten the sound of the whistle whilst holding an advantage.
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Friday, March 29, 2013
Cyprus and the Unraveling of Fractional-Reserve Banking / Interest-Rates / Central Banks
By: Joseph_T_Salerno
The “Cyprus deal” as it has been widely referred to in the media may mark the next to last act in the the slow motion collapse of fractional-reserve banking that began with the implosion of the savings-and-loan industry in the U.S. in the late 1980s.
This trend continued with the currency crises in Russia, Mexico, East Asia, and Argentina in the 1990s in which fractional-reserve banking played a decisive role. The unraveling of fractional-reserve banking became visible even to the average depositor during the financial meltdown of 2008 that ignited bank runs on some of the largest and most venerable financial institutions in the world. The final collapse was only averted by the multi-trillion dollar bailout of U.S. and foreign banks by the Federal Reserve.
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Thursday, March 28, 2013
Why We Can't Avoid Ben Bernanke's "Monetary Cliff" / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: Money_Morning
Martin Hutchinson writes: When it comes to the Federal Reserve, an accurate "reading of the tea leaves" means paying attention to all of the fine print.
And while the markets cheered last week's FOMC meeting with yet another rally, a deeper look at Ben Bernanke's press conference left me with a slightly different take.
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Saturday, March 09, 2013
The Coming Ponzi U.S. Treasury Bond Market Crash / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Casey_Research
It is my contention that the 70-year debt supercycle has come to an end.
To put the current financial situation in perspective, here's a long-term history of the debt-to-GDP ratio, which reached a record high at the beginning of the current crisis. It was a dramatic change in 2009, unlike anything since the aftermath of the Great Depression.
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Wednesday, March 06, 2013
Gentlemen, Start Your Money Printing Presses / Interest-Rates / Fiat Currency
By: John_Browne
In his Congressional testimony last week in Washington, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke took time to downplay the significance of the few dissenting voices on the Fed's Open Market Committee (FOMC). Those statements, combined with an even more dovish statement by Fed Vice Chairman Janet Yellen earlier this week, clearly reaffirm the Fed's indefinite commitment to $85 billion of monthly quantitative easing. (It is surprising that those figures failed to invoke the attention drawn by the $85 billion in annual cuts detailed in the "sequester"). But the stock markets have gotten the message loud and clear and are setting records on a daily basis. The apparent triumphs of the Federal Reserve in pumping up stock and real estate prices, without triggering a sell-off in the dollar or easily visible inflation, have not been lost by observers around the world.
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Saturday, March 02, 2013
What the Bank of Japan, China’s Government and the Fed Have in Common / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing
By: Graham_Summers
As we’ve noted in recent articles, the US Federal Reserve has blown another bubble in stocks and facilitating the exact same risk-taking behavior that brought about the 2008.
The Fed realizing that it’s done this, which is why it’s now trying to manage down expectations of future stimulus (see the multiple suggestions from Fed officials that the Fed might reduce QE before hitting its unemployment target).
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Saturday, March 02, 2013
U.S. Treasury Bond Market's Last Bull Run / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Investment_U
Steve McDonald writes: When the Italians couldn’t agree on one candidate, and the U.S. faced it’s so called sequester, it may have been the last shot of life support for the bond market, for a long time.
This is very likely the last hurrah for the 30-year bond bull market. It may also be the last chance for the multitudes that have been plowing money into bond funds to take profits and save their retirements.
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Friday, March 01, 2013
The U.S. Fed's Tightening Pipe Dream / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank
By: Peter_Schiff
Testifying before the US Senate this past Tuesday, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke made an extraordinary claim about its bloated balance sheet: "We could exit without ever selling by letting it run off." What Bernanke means here is that the Fed could simply hold its Treasuries and agency bonds until they mature, at which point the government would then be forced to pay the Fed back the principal amount. Through this process, the Fed's unprecedented and inflationary position will be gradually and placidly unwound.
Thursday, February 28, 2013
US Treasury Bonds The Biggest Bubble In History About to Pop / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Jeff_Berwick
The US Treasury Bond market is the longest unbroken bull market known to the financial world. For more than 30 years it has trended higher in nominal US dollar terms.
Wednesday, February 27, 2013
No Easy Escape for the Fed / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank
By: Michael_Pento
I've said since the beginning of 2009 that any future "recovery" experienced by the markets and the economy would be derived through massive government spending and Federal Reserve debt monetization. Therefore, the logical conclusion must be that when or if fiscal and monetary austerity is eventually adopted, the economy and markets would crash.
Monday, February 25, 2013
How the Fed Will Crash the U.S. Bond Market / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Submissions
Richard Moyer writes: When you or I buy bonds, we pay a certain amount of money to buy someone elses debt. In return, they pay us a certain amount of interest for a fixed period of time.
Sunday, February 24, 2013
Europe’s Fine… Just Ask Depositors Who Saw Their Savings Go to ZERO / Interest-Rates / Eurozone Debt Crisis
By: Graham_Summers
Anyone who wants to get an inside look at both the European banking system and the politicians in charge of fixing it need to only look at Spain’s Bankia.
Bankia was formed in December 2010 by merging seven totally bankrupt Spanish cajas (regional banks that were unregulated). The bank was heralded as a success story and an indication that European Governments could manage the risks in their banking systems.
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Saturday, February 23, 2013
Euro-zone Debt Crisis - Whatever It Takes / Interest-Rates / Eurozone Debt Crisis
By: John_Mauldin
Lord Melchett: “Farewell, Blackadder [hands him a parchment]. The foremost cartographers of the land have prepared this for you; it's a map of the area that you'll be traversing. [Blackadder opens it up and sees it is blank] They'll be very grateful if you could just fill it in as you go along. Bye-bye.” – From the English comedy series Blackadder (Part 2, Episode 3)
Was it only a few years ago I visited the Emerald Isle of Ireland? So recently had this fair land come to such a sad state. The collapse of its largest banks foreshadowed the demise of many other European banks that had borrowed money from British, German, and other European banks to lend against homes and property. The Irish government had to guarantee deposits and bond holders in order to prevent a bank run. I think I am correct when I state that the Central Bank of Ireland was the first central bank to avail itself of large-scale use of the Emergency Liquidity Assistance (ELA) provision of the European Central Bank. This was before we became so familiar with the process in Greece.
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Saturday, February 23, 2013
The ‘End’ of QE – Hype or Tripe? / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing
By: Andy_Sutton
I am going to say right up front that there is going to be quite a bit of sarcasm in this essay. I say this simply because of the ludicrous nature of our marionette-esque talking heads in the mainstream financial press in this country. They are truly amazing, taking molehills and making mountains out of them and vice versa. In one segment telling us that there in fact will be no criminal charges against anyone involved in the HSBC drug/terrorism money laundering scandal – if they talk about it a all – while in the next advocating holding the next ten generations hostage by supporting the continued subsidy of said corrupt organization et al with fiat money printed from nothing with the debt placed on the taxpayer’s tab.