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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Interest-Rates

Tuesday, March 03, 2015

Bill Gross Says Fed May Raise Rates 25 Basis Points in June / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Bloomberg

Bill Gross of Janus Capital spoke with Bloomberg Television's Trish Regan about the outlook for Federal Reserve policy, the U.S. economy and his objectives at Janus Capital.

On what he aims to do at Janus, Gross said: "I wanted to show clients and to show the world, to the extent that they're interested, that I can continue to produce a track record like I did at PIMCO. I won't have five to 10 to 15 years of leeway like I had at PIMCO in terms of proving that.  But certainly for the next two, three or four years.  I'm a very competitive person and I like to post numbers that are better than the market and better than the competition."

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, March 01, 2015

Subprime Rising - U.S. Debt Breaking Bad Part 2 / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: James_Quinn

‘If you’re committed enough, you can make any story work. I once told a woman I was Kevin Costner, and it worked because I believed it’ Saul Goodman – Breaking Bad

“As calamitous as the sub-prime blowup seems, it is only the beginning. The credit bubble spawned abuses throughout the system. Sub-prime lending just happened to be the most egregious of the lot, and thus the first to have the cockroaches scurrying out in plain view. The housing market will collapse. New-home construction will collapse. Consumer pocketbooks will be pinched. The consumer spending binge will be over. The U.S. economy will enter a recession.”Eric Sprott – 2007

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, February 28, 2015

U.S. Debt Breaking Bad / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: James_Quinn

“At this juncture, the impact on the broader economy and financial markets of the problems in the subprime market seems likely to be contained.”Fed chairman, Ben Bernanke, Congressional testimony, March, 2007

“Capitalism without financial failure is not capitalism at all, but a kind of socialism for the rich.”James Grant, Grant’s Interest Rate Observer

The Federal Reserve issued their fourth quarter Report on Household Debt and Credit last week to the sounds of silence in the mainstream media. There were minor press releases issued by the “professional” financial journalists regurgitating the Federal Reserve’s storyline. Actual analysis, connecting the dots, describing how the massive issuance of student loan and auto loan debt has produced a fake economic recovery, and how the accelerating default rates in auto loans and student loans will produce the next subprime debt implosion, were nowhere to be seen on CNBC, Bloomberg, the WSJ, or any other status quo propaganda media outlet. Their job is not to analyze or seek truth. Their job is to keep their government patrons and Wall Street advertisers happy, while keeping the masses sedated, misinformed, and pliable.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, February 28, 2015

Fed Raising U.S. Interest Rates - Shovelin’ Schmitt Against the Tide / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: John_Mauldin

There is an obsession in the marketplace over the date when the Fed will once again begin to raise rates. As if another 25 basis points is going to change the economics on tens of trillions of dollars of investments. But as we reflect on the issue more deeply, it becomes obvious that a minor bump in the fed funds rate will indeed change a great deal of economics all over the world.

No, it won’t do much to the cap rate on your latest real estate purchase, but it is likely to greatly affect the pricing of the currency and commodity markets. And those markets will affect corporate profits, which will affect the stock market. It’s all connected.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, February 25, 2015

Debt Be Not Proud / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis 2015

By: John_Mauldin

Some things never change. Here is Eugen von Böhm-Bawerk, one of the founding intellectuals of the Austrian school of economics, writing in January 1914, lambasting politicians for their complicity in the corruption of monetary policy:

We have seen innumerable variations of the vexing game of trying to generate political contentment through material concessions. If formerly the Parliaments were the guardians of thrift, they are today far more like its sworn enemies. Nowadays the political and nationalist parties ... are in the habit of cultivating a greed of all kinds of benefits for their co-nationals or constituencies that they regard as a veritable duty, and should the political situation be correspondingly favorable, that is to say correspondingly unfavorable for the Government, then political pressure will produce what is wanted. Often enough, though, because of the carefully calculated rivalry and jealousy between parties, what has been granted to one has also to be conceded to others — from a single costly concession springs a whole bundle of costly concessions. [emphasis mine]

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, February 25, 2015

Lowest Interest Rates For 3000 Years! / Interest-Rates / Global Financial System

By: John_Rubino

Business Insider's Myles Udland just posted a chart, drawn from research by the Bank of England, showing interest rates for the past 3,000 years. And for all those who've been feeling like today's "new normal" is actually profoundly abnormal, here's your proof. It turns out that interest rates, both long and short-term, are lower than they've ever been. Not lower than in this cycle, or post-war or in the past century, but ever, going back to the earliest days of markets.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, February 23, 2015

If Debt Was The Problem... / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis 2015

By: John_Rubino

Confounded Interest just posted a nice summary of a McKinsey report on the growth of global debt during what some persist in calling the "great deleveraging." Turns out that since the crisis of 2008, debt has actually risen by $57 trillion, and the ratio of debt to GDP is up 17 percentage points to 286%. Meanwhile, central banks are monetizing 100% of newly-issued sovereign debt.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, February 19, 2015

Sovereign Debt Monetization Parade - The Debt Heaven Fallacy / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis 2015

By: Jim_Willie_CB

Today marks the Chinese New Year, the day promised for unleashing forces from the East which complete the Global Paradigm Shift. Let it rain; let it pour. For a full generation, the Western central bankers have relied upon debt to solve debt saturation problems as well as economic slowdowns founded within the credit cycle. In the last four years, they have added reliance upon free cost printed money to solve debt saturation and insolvency problems. The USTreasury Bond market has vanished for all practical legitimate purposes, a harbinger of the USDollar death event. With no surprise to the Jackass, the entire Western financial and economic system is not just decaying, but failing.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, February 16, 2015

The Russian Banking Crisis / Interest-Rates / Russia

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

We have shown so far that all ruble crises were accompanied by a strong U.S. dollar and low oil prices. We have concluded that Russia's current problems resemble those from 1998, though possibly even more severe than seventeen years ago, because the biggest country in the world is cut off from the international funding. But what about the following banking crisis in Russia?

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Interest-Rates

Monday, February 16, 2015

Can Europe Recover From Its Easy-Money Obsession? / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: MISES

Brendan Brown writes: The announcement of the euro-QE was not the start of Europe’s monetary Dark Age. That started many years ago with Chancellor Kohl’s undermining of the “hard deutsche mark Bundesbank” in the late 1980s. The darkness further descended when the newly created European Central Bank (ECB) implemented monetary frameworks which essentially tied Europe into a global 2-percent-inflation standard, following the US Federal Reserve.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, February 14, 2015

U.S. Treasury Long Bond Breakdown / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Dan_Norcini

Well, here we go again. I do not know how many times over the past year or so I have noted what looked like a chart breakdown in the US long bond. By that I specifically mean a close BELOW the 50 day moving average. Generally, that will get technicians to sit up and take notice and begin to approach a market from the short side. Each time I have noted this however, the bonds have done a flip-a-roo and back up they have gone continuing the bull streak.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, February 11, 2015

Goldman Sachs’s Cohn: Fed in ‘Tough Position’ on Interest Rate Hike / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Bloomberg

Gary Cohn, President and COO of Goldman Sachs, joined Bloomberg Businessweek reporter Brad Stone for an interview on Bloomberg TV. He spoke about the company's investments in the technology industry, regulation of the financial industry and the outlook for oil prices and Federal Reserve policy

When asked whether we will see a rate increase this year, Cohen said: "The Fed is in a very tough position...They’re going to be constrained by circumstances, going to be concerned about the strength of the dollar, and other countries are going to continue to devalue.”

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Interest-Rates

Monday, February 09, 2015

Sovereign Bonds Mispricing / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2015

By: Alasdair_Macleod

Today’s obvious mispricing of sovereign bonds is a bonanza for spending politicians and allows over-leveraged banks to build up their capital. This mispricing has gone so far that negative interest rates have become common: in Denmark, where the central bank persists in holding the Krona peg to a weakening Euro, it is reported that even some mortgage rates have gone negative, and high quality corporate bonds such as a recent Nestlé euro bond issue are also flirting with negative yields.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, February 08, 2015

Why the Federal Reserve Will Move U.S. Interest Rates / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Money_Morning

Michael E. Lewitt writes: To say that markets are confused about when the Federal Reserve is going to raise interest rates is the understatement of the year.

The confusion is understandable. While the U.S. economy no longer needs crisis-era policies like zero interest rates and quantitative easing, the rest of the world is still struggling.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, February 08, 2015

Feel That? It's the Chill of Deflation / Interest-Rates / Deflation

By: DailyWealth

Chris Mayer writes: That chill in the air? This is what deflation feels like...

Right now, the 10-year U.S. Treasury pays just 1.8%... oil is $50 a barrel... commodity prices drift near to chilling lows... and the dollar is near multiyear highs. These are all deflationary trends.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, February 07, 2015

China Makes the Right Move / Interest-Rates / China Economy

By: Steve_H_Hanke

Yesterday, China’s Central Bank reduced bank reserve requirements for large banks by 50 basis points to 19.5%. The Chinese know that the nominal level of national income is determined by the magnitude of the money supply. They also know that banks produce the lion’s share of China’s money. Indeed, banks produce 77% of China’s M2 money.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, February 07, 2015

The Party Is Likely Over for U.S. Treasury Bonds / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Sy_Harding

U.S. treasury bonds defied the experts last year.

The consensus was that once the Fed began dialing back its massive bond-buying stimulus program last January, bond prices would have to begin plunging. With the stock market so clearly in an ongoing bull market, why would anyone but the Fed buy bonds with their yields at record lows, providing almost no income? The lack of interest in bonds was obvious from their plunge in 2013 even when the Fed was aggressively engaged in its QE bond buying.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, February 07, 2015

U.S. Treasury Bond Yields Soaring ... But not for long / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

It’s time to rethink my outlook (Elliott Wave structure) in Treasuries. I had been concerned that the decline in TNX fell short of my projections. Then it hit me as I was writing about XJY and how high it might go in a panic stock decline. With gold out of the picture, it appears that the only other major asset that might be viewed as a safe haven would be US Treasuries. You can see that I have changed the Elliott Wave structure to reflect that view.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, February 04, 2015

The ECB Fears Deflation, But You Should Not / Interest-Rates / Eurozone Debt Crisis

By: Frank_Shostak

The European Central Bank (ECB) is planning to pump 1.1 trillion euros into the banking system to fend off price deflation and revive economic activity. The ECB president and his executive board are planning to spend 60 billion euros per month from March 2015 to September 2016.

Most experts hold that the ECB must start acting aggressively against the danger of deflation. The yearly rate of growth of the consumer price index (CPI) fell to minus 0.2 percent in December 2014 from 0.3 percent in November, and 0.8 percent in December 2013.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, February 04, 2015

The Swiss 10-Year Bond Illustrates Central Banks` Flawed Monetary Policy / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2015

By: EconMatters

Negative 15 Basis Points

Switzerland`s 10-Year Bond Yield is now negative 15 basis points, yeah that`s right we don`t even have to bring up the notion of inflation and real rates of return, the actual 10 year bond for Switzerland is charging investors 15 basis points for the privilege of buying Swiss debt, and you thought CD rates were bad.

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