Monday, February 06, 2017

Why the Fed Gets Economics Wrong / Economics / Economic Theory

By: John_Mauldin

Economics (in general) is populated at its core by a lot of bad ideas. And these bad ideas have come to be accepted as the correct interpretation of how the economy functions and thus have become the basis for economic policy. This news shouldn’t come as a shock since I’ve written about this many times over the years in Thoughts from the Frontline.

Economics is an enormously useful tool for those of us who are trying to understand business and investments and government policy. But to paraphrase Dirty Harry, “An economist has to know his limitations.”

Monday, February 06, 2017

A Non-Existent US Economic Recovery! / Economics / US Economy

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Where is this economic boom that Former President Obama and his administration had taken so much credit for?

The Obama Administration, with the assistance of the Federal Reserve and Company, deliberately kept the U.S. economy from creating any growth at all.  The money that flowed from the Federal Reserve, over the last 8 years, had a direct pipeline that flowed only into Wall Street Investment Banks. The American people were sold this false bill of sale that “Quantitative Easing” was going to make lending money to “Main Street America” easier to access. They promised that there would be a boost in hiring which would, in turn, increase aggregate demand and thereby reflect a newly stimulated economic growth!

Monday, February 06, 2017

Health Tourism Cripples NHS, Nationwide Winter Crisis Paralysis / Politics / NHS

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The mainstream press has been reporting on the unfolding NHS crisis over the winter months, one of a building paralysis in the NHS that in large part has its roots in EU out of control immigration and wide spread health tourism abuse that in large part is of african origin. Where people who are ill come to the UK for FREE treatment on the NHS and thus clog up thousands of much needed beds for months at a time, health tourism impacts the NHS across the whole spectrum of services from maternity wards upwards across all age groups costing billions and crippling NHS services.

Monday, February 06, 2017

Carnage of the Middle Class / Politics / Social Issues

By: Michael_Pento

In President Donald J. Trump's inaugural address he promised, "This American carnage stops right here and stops right now." And immediately liberals and the MSM took umbrage to his use of the word carnage, which means the slaughter of a large number of people, claiming it was just too dark a description for America. Maybe so. However, in a recent Bloomberg commentary, Justin Fox cites some sobering statistics that support Trump's statement.

Monday, February 06, 2017

Gold Price Trend Forecast, Where are the Gold Traders? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Bob_Loukas

This is the 3rd piece on gold that highlights how unloved gold remains today.  Considering the 2016 rally in gold and the turbulent times we now find ourselves in, to be honest I'm rather surprised there are not significantly more gold traders all over this market. Part 1 and Part 2 cover the initial stages of this rally from the December lows. Below is an excerpt from the Financial Tap Member weekly weekend report.

I am rather surprised to read across the blogosphere how a majority of Gold Traders appear to discount and undermine the current gold market. I can appreciate that the longer term cyclical outlook remains unresolved, but in the short-term at least, I believe the gold sector looks to be in great shape.

Monday, February 06, 2017

SP500 Index Got Closer To Record High - Will The Uptrend Continue? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: Paul_Rejczak

Briefly: In our opinion, speculative short positions are favored (with stop-loss at 2,330, and profit target at 2,150, S&P 500 index).

Our intraday outlook remains bearish, and our short-term outlook is bearish. Our medium-term outlook remains neutral, following S&P 500 index breakout above last year's all-time high:

Monday, February 06, 2017

US Dollar and Gold Markets Update / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: SurfCity

As longer Cycles typically dominate shorter ones, this update will provide both longer and shorter views on the USD and Gold. Why the two together?  Obviously due to the negative correlation. No correlation works all the time, however, and I fully expect to see periods where the USD and Gold rise and perhaps fall together. That said, the correlation has been fairly strong over the past year so I find it best to sometimes cover these assets together.

Monday, February 06, 2017

CRB Commodities Index Deep Dive / Commodities / CRB Index

By: SurfCity

If you are going to trade the commodity sector, you had best follow the USD, which is why I do. If I am correct that the USD’s longer 15 Year Super Cycle is toping in 2017, then the CRB will be a fun sector where we will focus.

With respect to Weinstein’s 4 Stage Model, here is a great site that is the best I have found that covers his model quite well.

Monday, February 06, 2017

Betting on President Trump Leaving Office Early, Presidency End Date - Betfair Market / Politics / Gambling

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The Trump Reset Tsunami waves continue to wash that which has been built up over the past 40 years away in a manifestation of extreme delirium which I covered both in the run up to the US presidential election of why Trump would WIN, and in my post Trump analysis of why the Trump Reset looks set to culminate in a war with China.

Monday, February 06, 2017

Inflation – What It Is, What It Isn’t, And Who’s Responsible For It / Economics / Inflation

By: Kelsey_Williams

Inflation is the debasement of money by the government.  PERIOD.

It is NOT a general increase in the level of prices for goods and services.

The above statements are critical to an understanding and correct interpretation of events which are happening today – or expected to happen  – that are casually attributable to inflation.  So, let’s go one step further.

Monday, February 06, 2017

How Investors Can Profit From Trumps Military Ambitions / Commodities / Metals & Mining

By: OilPrice_Com

Tesla just activated its battery gigafactory, and China is moving to hoard the world’s cobalt supplies at the same time that Trump promises a military build-up that can only happen with the precious metal. This all means supply panic for everything from the electric car break-out to the military industrial complex.

Right in the middle of this we have small-cap North American explorers—our new potential barons-in-the-making—in whose hands our energy revolution now lies.

Monday, February 06, 2017

Prognosis Of Financial Markets For 2017 And Beyond / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2017

By: Raymond_Matison

The right time to consider our future financial markets for investing

Since the presidential election there have been many reports as how the financial markets of 2017 and beyond may evolve.  Given the acrimonious post election environment, it would be wiser to forecast the direction of markets after we see Mr. Trump’s full team in action for at least a few months, and more fully understand or experience his actual policies.  However, it is clear that at no time in history will a president’s fiscal, trade, national security, or FED’s monetary policies affect our financial markets more, which will determine the future wellness of America’s citizens.  At the same time, however, no policies can fully extricate us from our overbearing debt, and the painful economic consequences which we are to experience in the very near future.

Monday, February 06, 2017

Absolution, Deceit and Renewables / Politics / Renewable Energy

By: Raul_I_Meijer

It’s been a while since the Automatic Earth featured an article from Energy Matters, the site run by our longtime friend Euan Mearns, Honorary Research Fellow at The University of Aberdeen, and his co-conspirator Roger Andrews, a British engineer/geophysicist, semi-retired in Mexico. But I read a piece by Roger yesterday that I like, because it allows me to rant against all the false claims emanating from countries and companies about the share of renewable power in their total energy consumption.

Roger focuses on the railway system in the Netherlands, run by NS, which recently claimed that it operates on 100% wind power. This is of course, if you know anything about electricity generation and the grid, a preposterous claim, and that the company has the guts to make such a claim can only serve to prove how little the general public knows about the topic. Or they wouldn’t dare. Green is still so sexy in certain circles, and actual knowledge so poor, that companies like the NS feel no scruples about stretching their ‘greenness’ into absurd theater territory.

Sunday, February 05, 2017

Retail Prices at wholesale Prices – Next Hot Stocks Sector / Stock-Markets / Sector Analysis

By: Chris_Vermeulen

As we close out the first week of February, I’m writing to illustrate the types of great opportunities waiting for all of us.  All the trades we share are based on our Momentum Reversal Method (MRM) trading system.

There are two key components of this trading strategy; A. identifying recent price rotation, or B. identifying price resumption of existing momentum.  Both examples, today, will focus on two unique examples of the Momentum Reversal Method and two unique setups.  Today’s examples are XRT and AIQ, setups that we believe will result in tremendous opportunities for traders over the next 2-3 weeks.

Sunday, February 05, 2017

Stock Market Testing the High / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX Long-term trend: If the market strength persists, the long-term trend may need to be re-evaluated.

SPX Intermediate trend: SPX intermediate P&F count to 2300 has been reached. A reversal should now occur.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily-basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discuss longer market trends.

Sunday, February 05, 2017

Why Trump’s Economic Justice Warriors Will Crash The US Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar

By: Jeff_Berwick

For the last eight years we’ve seen the rise of the Social Justice Warriors (SJW’s), as they had lobbied their man, Obama, for the political power required to direct the force of government in the name of their own peculiarly relativist brand of “social justice.”

While they are still busy demonstrating the violent soul of what is inherent in all brands of statism by breaking storefront windows (masked), under the Trump epoch a new type of statist “warrior” has emerged… let’s call them the Economic Justice Warriors (EJW’s).

Sunday, February 05, 2017

S&P 500 Pivots Off Support Into New Stock Market Upleg / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: Mike_Paulenoff

In our Wrap last Friday, we noted to expect the S&P 500 to pullback further to support before continuing its next up-leg. The index bounced slightly below our expected target in the 2270 range, and ended the week again challenging 2300.

A big catalyst was Friday's positive reaction to the Jobs Report and to the prospect of repeal of financial regulations, which thrust the S&P 500 into a new upleg.

Sunday, February 05, 2017

Stock Trade-of-the-Week: Pure Industrial Real Estate Trust (AAR/UN) / Companies / Investing 2017

By: Donald_W_Dony

Company Profile: Pure Industrial Real Estate Trust is an independent equity real estate investment trust. The firm acquires, owns, and operates a diversified portfolio of income producing industrial properties in primary industrial markets. It invests in the real estate markets of Canada. Pure Industrial Real Estate Trust was founded in June 2007 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.

Sunday, February 05, 2017

Walkers Crisps Snap & Share Top Tips for Winning Prizes, PS4, Match Tickets / Personal_Finance / Freebies and Comps

By: Anika_Walayat

Walkers Crisps have just started a new promotion in conjunction with UEFA Champions League where you can win prizes including 40 pairs of match tickets, 500 play stations and 7000 footballs. Here are our top tips for how you can maximise prizes whilst minimising costs i.e. it is not necessary to buy loads of crisp packets for codes to win prizes! Find out in our top tips video.

Sunday, February 05, 2017

US Dollar Bulls Surrender? / Currencies / US Dollar

By: Rambus_Chartology

The US dollar has now closed lower for 6 weeks in a row which is testing the patience of the bulls. This week the price action cracked the top rail of the horizontal trading range which is a negative, but not confirmation yet the trend has reversed down. There are several more layers of support that will need to be hit before I throw up the white flag and surrender to the bears.