Tuesday, July 03, 2018
Is this the Most Hawkish Fed Ever? / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Michael_Pento
My research shows that this is one of the most hawkish Fed rate-hiking regimes ever. It has raised rates seven times during this current cycle and is on pace to raise the Fed Funds Rate(FFR) four times this year and three times in 2019.But what makes its monetary policy extraordinarily restrictive is that for the first time in history the Fed is also selling $40 billion per month of Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) and Treasuries starting in Q3 and $600 billion per year come October. Because the Fed is destroying money at a record pace while the rest of the world’s major central banks are still engaged in money printing (QE) and zero interest rate policies (ZIRP), Jerome Powell’s trenchant and unilateral tightening policy is now causing chaos in emerging markets.
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Tuesday, July 03, 2018
Stock Market Temporary Bottom Set-Up Needs Follow Through / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Submissions
By Ricky Wen : The last week of June was quite weak as the stock market continued the downward momentum from the 3rd week by grinding down into the major weekly trending support zone around 2700-2720 on the Emini S&P 500 (ES) for the backtest.
After Monday's steep sell-off, the rest of the week was mostly consolidation within Monday’s range. The main takeaway from the week was that the market made a temporary bottom setup with the nominal lower low at around 2693 on the ES and back into the 2740 area resistance. It is now waiting for some follow through this week, or invalidation if that was not the low.
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Tuesday, July 03, 2018
Crude Oil – Precious Metals Link and Its Implications / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
In recent days, oil bulls have accustomed us to fresh peaks. However, when we look more closely at the volume, their actions lose some of the glow. When we add the picture, which emerges from the relationship between crude oil and precious metals, doubts about the strength of the rally are getting even bigger. Is it possible that this interesting link tells us more about the future of black gold?
Tuesday, July 03, 2018
Silver Bull Market Is Almost Here / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Hubert_Moolman
Silver is running out of time and space (on the chart) to decide where it will go over the next months and years. The similarity of conditions to the early 80s suggests that silver could go into a multi-year bear market or continue its bull market:
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Monday, July 02, 2018
Stock Market Negative Expectations, but.. / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Paul_Rejczak
Stocks failed to continue their short-term rebound on Friday and they closed virtually flat. The S&P 500 index extended its short-term consolidation, as it remained above the level of 2,700 on the last trading day of the month and the quarter. But was it a bottoming pattern or just some flat correction before another leg lower? There are still two possible medium-term scenarios.
The U.S. stock market indexes gained 0.1-0.2% on Friday, as the investors hesitated following Thursday's rebound off support level. The S&P 500 index extended its week-long consolidation. It currently trades 5.3% below the January's 26th record high of 2,872.87. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.2% and the technology Nasdaq Composite gained 0.1% on the last trading day of the month and the quarter.
Monday, July 02, 2018
England's Lucky Path to Football World Cup Final at Russia 2018 / Politics / Spread Betting
By: N_Walayat
My following video illustrates why England could be set to reach the Football World Cup Finals in Russia, all curtesy of lady luck that has presented England witht he easiest path to football victory in 50 years! The betting markets have also acknowledged this good fortune with odds greatly tightening, currently putting England at 11/10 against Colombia whilst England are at 7 to 1 to win the World Cup (oddschecker), more in my following video:
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Monday, July 02, 2018
Powerful Tips for Successful Gambling that Work / Personal_Finance / Gambling
By: Steve_Marks
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Monday, July 02, 2018
Stock Market Bucks “Sell in May and Go Away”. A Bullish Sign / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
As you probably already know, the stock market’s seasonality is bearish from May – September. That’s where the phrase “Sell in May and go Away” comes from.
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Monday, July 02, 2018
Gold Moving Toward a Reset / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: The_Gold_Report
Rudi Fronk and Jim Anthony, cofounders of Seabridge Gold, discuss the fundamentals behind gold and the markets. Gold is the ultimate safe haven, for two simple reasons. First, its total aboveground supply only grows 1.4% per year, no matter what anyone does (and even this rate of increase is starting to fall as production levels have peaked). Second, gold is final settlement for the payment of obligations; it is universally accepted as itself, in physical form, not needing to be translated into someone else's currency.
In the current financial asset mania, with confidence in markets and central banks very high, markets are not much interested in safe havens and gold has been languishing. When investors become more risk averse, gold will go on its next big run. Current sentiment and market positioning correspond to what is typically a price low historically.
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Monday, July 02, 2018
Mexico’s Historical Election and Obrador’s Triumph / Politics / Mexico
By: Dan_Steinbock
For decades, the specter of Andrés Manuel López Obrador has haunted Mexico’s ruling elites. After July 1, his coalition triumph - after years of contested elections - could change the country’s domestic, regional, even international policies.For a year or two, international media touted the neoliberal reforms of President Enrique Peña Nieto. However, as the “reform” narrative has proved hollow, Nieto’s approval rating has plunged from almost 50 percent to barely 10 percent. So the media narrative has been revised it by downplaying Nieto but focusing on the flawed portrayal of Obrador as Mexico’s Chávez who will undermine Mexico’s future.
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Monday, July 02, 2018
CRB Commodity Index Chart Analysis Trend Forecast / Commodities / CRB Index
By: Austin_Galt
Pattern – price has been in a downtrend since the 2011 high and the current price action looks corrective in nature. An ABC correction looks to be playing out with price still to put in a wave C high.
Bollinger Bands – price is back at the middle band and I am looking for support to kick in here.
Monday, July 02, 2018
Stock Market Step Back / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – The bull market is continuing with a top expected in the low 3000s.
Intermediate trend – Due to recent market action, the intermediate trend from 2873 may be extending its corrective phase.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
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Sunday, July 01, 2018
Stock Market Crash Even if China and the Trump Make Up? Currencies Think So / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Crash
By: Graham_Summers
As we noted earlier this week, China, tired of the “back and forth” with the Trump administration on trade negotiations, has resorted to devaluing the Yuan.
The goal here was to induce another sharp sell-off in stocks, similar to the ones induced by China’s August 2015 and January 2016 devaluations. By the way, those last two devaluations (red boxes) resulted in the S&P 500 dropping 11% and 12% in less than one week.
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Saturday, June 30, 2018
Things To Know About This Week’s CBO US Debt Report / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: F_F_Wiley
Here are six things you might like to know about the Congressional Budget Office’s 2018 Long-Term Budget Outlook, which was released on Tuesday.
- The CBO’s baseline scenario shows federal debt held by the public rocketing upward at a trajectory not seen since 2009, but this time on a sustained basis and breaching 150% of GDP by 2048. Here’s the chart:
Saturday, June 30, 2018
Stock Market’s Price Action Starting to Turn Bullish / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
As always, the economy’s fundamentals determine the stock market’s medium-long term outlook. Technicals determine the stock market’s short-medium term outlook. Here’s why:
- The stock market’s long term is bullish.
- The stock market’s medium term is bullish.
- The stock market’s short term is turning bullish (with Trump’s trade war as a wild card)
Let’s go from the long term, to the medium term, to the short term.
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Saturday, June 30, 2018
Trade Tariff War Akin to Raising Taxes, Recession Looms / Stock-Markets / Protectionism
By: MoneyMetals
Mike Gleason: It is my privilege now to welcome in Frank Holmes, CEO and Chief Investment Officer at U.S. Global Investors. Mr. Holmes has received various honors over the years, including being named America's Best Fund Manager for 2016 by the Mining Journal. He is also the co-author of the book, The Goldwatcher: Demystifying Gold Investing and is a regular guest on CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox Business, as well as right here on the Money Metals podcast.
Frank, welcome back and thanks for joining us again. How are you today?
Frank Holmes: I'm great, and it's great to be chatting with you about this languishing gold market.
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Saturday, June 30, 2018
Climate Change Armageddon / Politics / Climate Change
By: Richard_Mills
In Winnipeg, the hottest day of the year, on average, is nearly 40 degrees Celsius, while in Whitehorse, the mercury blasts past 31.4. A moderating coastal climate means little to Victoria, which averages 33.1 degrees, and Toronto, the most humid city in Canada, becomes even less bearable, with the temperature climbing to a sweltering 38.4.
These are the average hottest temperatures of the year in the new Canada, based on a higher-carbon atmosphere, one of three scenarios put together by The Prairie Climate Centre and graphed by The Globe and Mail in April. For Winnipeg, better known in summer for black flies than sun burns, that’s 4.8 degrees higher than the recent past, 4.5 degrees hotter in Victoria, and 4.9 degrees steamier in Toronto.
If climate change doesn’t stop, Hogtown (Toronto) will see over 100 days of searing-hot weather, according to the University of Winnipeg’s Prairie Climate Institute, which assembled the projected temperatures for Canadian cities as part of an interactive website that allows Canadians to see the likely impact of global warming on where they live. In the graph below, recent past means 1976-2005, while the future, both lower- and higher-carbon, refers to the years 2051-80.
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Friday, June 29, 2018
Stock Markets Hyper Risky / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Zeal_LLC
The lofty US stock markets remain riddled with euphoria and complacency, fueled by an exceptional bull. Investors believe downside risks are trivial, despite long years of epic central-bank easing catapulting valuations to dangerous bull-slaying extremes. This has left today’s markets hyper-risky, with a massive bear looming as the Fed and ECB increasingly slow and reverse their easy-money policies. Caveat emptor!
History proves that stock markets are forever cyclical, no trend lasts forever. Great bulls and bears alike eventually run their courses then give up their ghosts. Sooner or later every secular trend yields to extreme sentiment peaking, then the markets inevitably reverse. Popular greed late in bulls, and fear late in bears, ultimately hits unsustainable climaxes. All near-term buyers or sellers are sucked in, killing the trend.
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Friday, June 29, 2018
Stock Market Window Dressing Day / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
SPX futures went as high as 2737.00 (~2732.00 cash) this morning before pulling back. There is still a probability of the retracement rally probing the mid-Cycle resistance at 2742.03, which is an approximate 50% retracement of the decline. Thus far this quarter has seen nearly a 3% gain in the SPX and today would be an important window dressing day.
Wave [i] of 1 would be considered a Leading Diagonal, while Waves [iii] and [v] appear to be impulsive. There is a cluster of Cycle Pivots starting today and going through the weekend. The first Cycle Pivot occurs around 1:00 pm today.
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Friday, June 29, 2018
Why the Saudis Won’t Prevent The Next Oil Shock / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
Saudi Arabia is starting to panic, and is growing concerned that the growing number of supply disruptions around the world could cause oil prices to spike. Saudi Arabia is moving quickly to head off a supply crunch, aiming to dramatically ramp up production to a record high 11 million barrels per day in July, according to Reuters.
The increase, if it can be pulled off, would be an incredibly rapid ramp up in output, up more than 1 million barrels per day (mb/d) from May levels.
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