Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Tuesday, November 29, 2022
SILVER INVESTORS – MONEY TO BURN? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Kelsey_Williams
Over the past two years, there have been some wild and crazy things happen with regard to premiums charged and paid for various physical silver investment products. For the privilege of owning silver in certain specific forms, investors are paying through the nose; and, apparently, willingly so. WHY? Is the cash burning holes in their pockets?
I just completed a review of current market premiums for both silver and gold products. It shouldn’t be a surprise as to what particular product heads the list for the most expensive premiums. Investors are having a torrid love affair with U.S. Silver Eagles.
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Tuesday, November 29, 2022
Crude Oil: Why You Should Look Beyond Supply / Demand / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: EWI
The primary regulator of the rises and falls in oil's prices is market psychology
As I write on the morning of Friday, Nov. 18, crude oil is on track for its second weekly decline.
The financial media usually finds "reasons" for a market's price action that are rooted in "market fundamentals," and this decline in oil's price was no exception.
On Thurs., Nov. 17, a CNBC headline noted:
Oil falls on easing geopolitical tension, China demand outlook
The gist of the story was that a rising number of COVID-19 cases in China would contribute to a lower demand for crude oil in the world's second largest economy; hence, the falling prices.
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Sunday, November 27, 2022
Why Silver Price 'Should Resume Upwards Path / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Clive_Maund
Expert Clive Maund reviews silver's 4-month, 1-year, and 5-year charts to tell you where he believes the future is headed for this precious metal.
When the dollar broke down over a week ago, silver joined gold in breaking higher, as we can see on its 4-month chart below, and now we are seeing a normal post-breakout reaction as the dollar rallies somewhat to relieve the extreme condition that resulted from its steep lunge.
Once the dollar’s relief rally is done, silver should resume the upward path.
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Sunday, November 27, 2022
US Bond Market and Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Gary_Tanashian
For someone who uses the bond markets as important indicators to the macro analysis, I am the furthest thing from an astute bond trader and am certainly not a bond investor. This probably owes to the fact that my earliest (gold bug) training in the markets was with an eye toward the dangers of debt in a fiat driven system.
In other words, how could I take seriously the debt of a government hopelessly in multi-trillions of dollars in debt and adding to it all the time? That is what a bond as an investment is, a call on the debt of, in this case, a supposedly high quality entity (the US government). No thank you.
Though I am not well liked in some corners of the gold promotion err, analysis business, I consider myself today to be a full on gold bug just as I did 20 years ago. Nothing has changed because gold does not change. It has remained a steady literal and figurative rock within the financial system for years, decades and centuries. It’s what confidence in risk assets – including bonds – is measured by.
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Sunday, November 27, 2022
Gold and Silver Post Breakout Reaction Provides Another Buying Opportunity / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Clive_Maund
With the breakdown of the U.S. dollar, expert Clive Maund reviews charts for gold, copper, and palladium to tell you where he believes the metals are headed and which he thinks you should buy.
The last update was prescient as it called for a major breakdown in the dollar and breakouts by gold and silver, all of which happened just days later. If this were 2010 or 2011, this update would have generated considerable interest and numerous emails, but today nothing — it was greeted with a yawn.
This means one of two things or a combination of the two – either American investors or others are now broke and have no money to invest. Hence no interest or sentiment towards the precious metals sector is now so negative after recent underperformance that there is no enthusiasm for it.
I believe that the explanation is largely the latter reason, in which case it is exceedingly bullish because the more negative the sentiment towards a sector, the more upside potential it has, and I saw an article or video confirming this a few days ago because it described the rally this month as a “bull trap.”
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Thursday, November 24, 2022
Could Bitcoin’s Movements Indicate the Fall of Junior Gold Stocks? / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2022
By: P_Radomski_CFA
While comparing gold and bitcoin gives some idea of the patterns in the market, can the slide of junior miners be predicted by the same method?
Those of you who have been following my analyses for a while may be expecting me to write that it is based on the stock market's rally and thus only temporary, as miners will follow gold sooner rather than later. That’s their ultimate source of revenue (current or expected). While that’s true, right now there is another huge factor that’s likely contributing to the situation.
It's most likely the unfolding crypto-drama.
Remember when I previously commented on the link between juniors and cryptocurrencies? What I wrote back then was particularly important with regard to the less known (obscure?) ones with a shady background. In fact, some even call them “shitcoins.”
Thursday, November 24, 2022
Winter Is About To Wake up the Natural Gas Price / Commodities / Natural Gas
By: The_Energy_Report
An unusually warm October has helped natural gas inventories, but gas prices don't seem to believe it. Oil has seen three days of heavy selling volume ending with a hammer candle stick Monday. Birchcliff, Callon, and Earthstone should benefit.
Gold stocks have started a new bull market. The question is, will the gold price confirm it?
The HUI index ran from a low of 180.41 on November 3, 2022, to a high of 224.88 on November 10, 2022, which is a +24.6% move. The gold stocks often lead to a move in gold, and the gold price did move from US$1631 to US$1775 in the same time frame.
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Thursday, November 24, 2022
Crude Oil Price Predicis the US Economy and Stocks / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Rambus_Chartology
Oil, like just about everything else that is related to the markets, bottomed around the March / April 2020 pandemic crash low. The oil complex had been one of the worst performing areas even underperforming the PM complex if that is possible. When oil did bottom it did so in dramatic fashion capitulating hard to the downside in one last climatic thrust.
I built a few new combo chart this weekend, related to oil sector, to see if I could paint a more clearer picture of what is taking place. Since the 2020 crash low the USO, US oil fund, has had a very strong rally with the high being made back in the middle of June around 93 or so. The USO has been forming a new trading range since the June high and is currently testing the top rail of the blue falling wedge and the bottom trendline the 2020 uptrend channel. So the moment of truth has arrived.
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Tuesday, November 22, 2022
GOLD AND THE NORMALCY BIAS / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Kelsey_Williams
We think we know most (if not, all) of what we need to know about gold. Investors do their research and marketers spin their best yarn(s). Support is offered with an amazing array of fundamental and technical factors on display for all to see. But what are we not seeing?
NORMALCY BIAS DEFINITION
normalcy bias (noun)
“The phenomenon of disbelieving one’s situation when faced with grave and imminent danger and/or catastrophe.” …Wictionary
Here is a better, more complete definition from a different source…
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Monday, November 21, 2022
Gold Price Formed a Bearish Star, and It’s Not Even Christmas Yet / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Last week was full of events, but the most important one clarified after Friday’s closing bell – gold formed a reversal “shooting star” candlestick.
The implications are just as you think they are. After a sharp run-up, the rally has run its course, and the yellow metal is now about to slide again.
Let’s take a closer look.
Friday, November 18, 2022
As inflation eases, Macro grinds favor of Gold Stocks Mining Sector / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Gary_Tanashian
The macro market and economic backdrop continues to pivot favorable for the gold mining sector
The risk/reward for gold stocks has been very good after 2.5 years of correction that, contrary to what a majority of gold bugs think, was very valid amid the post-pandemic cycle of cyclical inflation. I won’t review the details about why here, as it is beyond the scope of this article and I’ve parroted them in several blog posts at nftrh.com. But suffice it to say, the gold stock sector did the work it was supposed to do since August, 2020.
In a previous post we noted the risk/reward of gold (mining product) vs. crude oil (mining cost driver) that is at once very bearish for gold stocks and implying a great risk/reward proposition for gold, and by extension, the gold mining sector. Here is a chart showing the Gold/Oil ratio in a very depressed (bearish) state with nowhere left to go but up. That’s the positive risk/reward that has been hammered out since the high risk days of mid-2020 as the ‘inflation trades’ were just getting underway.
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Friday, November 18, 2022
Can a Gold Stocks Rally Be Bearish? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: P_Radomski_CFA
History tends to repeat itself, and mining stocks appear to be repeating their 2008 performance, which has very interesting implications.
Why do I think that gold miners are repeating their 2008 price patterns? Please take a look at the below chart.
Thursday, November 10, 2022
Why Now 'Is a Great Time To Load up on Silver and Silver Investments / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Clive_Maund
Expert Clive Maund reviews silver's 4-month and 1-year charts to tell you why he believes it is a good time to load up on this precious metal.
Silver has three irresistible attributes at this time, one is that it is very cheap historically, especially when you factor in mounting inflation in recent times. Another is that, in common with metals generally, it looks set to enter a robust bull market as the dollar breaks down into a severe bear market.
The arguments relating to why the dollar looks set to break down have been set out in the parallel Gold Market update, as have the other circumstantial factors supportive of a rising silver price, such as the upside breakouts by copper and oil, so they will not be repeated here.
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Wednesday, November 09, 2022
What the USDX Shows Will Happen to Crude Oil Price Soon / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Submissions
Less than a month from now – on December 5 – an embargo on maritime exports of Russian crude oil to the European Union will come into force, as I explained in my last article.
As a result, global oil supply is expected to tighten significantly, with Russia being the world’s largest exporter of oil and fuels.
Therefore, energy markets are bracing for turbulence, as they may face a new storm of volatility.
On the macroeconomic view, the US Dollar Currency Index – still weakening against a basket of major currencies – starts looking down from the balcony to revisit some lower floors:
Tuesday, November 08, 2022
What Did the US Dollar Have to Do With Gold’s Nov 7th Rally? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Gold, silver and mining stocks’ prices soared on Friday. Let’s see if the dollar may have had something to do with this movement.
Very little happened in the precious metals market yesterday, and what I wrote and said yesterday remains up-to-date.
I got a request to comment on the USD Index (and its link with gold), and I’ll be happy to deliver.
Sunday, November 06, 2022
Yield Curve Flashes Recession Alert! Better Times for Gold? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The key yield curve has inverted, shouting loudly that a recession is coming - and with it, better times for gold.I activated the high-degree recession alert! I’ve been writing about the downturn for some time, but in October, another important indicator flashed a red light. As you can see on the chart below, the key yield curve has inverted.
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Sunday, November 06, 2022
Another Jumbo Rate Hike, Another Decline in Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Mp> The Fed delivered another 75-basis points hike. Gold didn’t like the FOMC meeting and declined further.November’s FOMC gathering is behind us. It was quite boring. You know, another meeting, another 75-basis points hike…
The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 3 to -3-1/4 to 4 percent.
The Fed raised interest rates by that much for the fourth time in a row. It’s quite impressive, given that in the last tightening cycle, they increased the rates only in 25-basis point moves. As a result, the target range for the federal funds rate is now at 3.75-4.0%, the highest level since early 2008, as the chart below shows. Thus, we can say that the interest rates have finally normalized after the Great Recession! Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, November 04, 2022
Is Crude Oil Switching into Bullish Territory Now? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Paul_Rejczak
Oil prices are trading this Friday at their highest in nearly a month, benefiting from the looming tighter supply as an effect of market speculation around potential zero-Covid policy relief in China.
Available to premium subscribers only – New trading projections on Crude Oil Futures DEC22
In addition to the reduction in the OPEC+ production target of 2 million barrels per day for the month of November, the EU embargo and the planned cap on the price of Russian oil add to the pervasive tension in the market.
In addition, the G7 member countries and Australia have agreed to set a fixed cap for the price of Russian oil rather than a variable rate in the interests of clarity, while the United Kingdom has aligned itself with the European Union by prohibiting British ships and service providers from contributing to the maritime transport of Russian oil sold above the fixed price set by the G7 and Australia.
Friday, November 04, 2022
Fed Continues Tough Talk, but Gold & Silver Show Resilience / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: MoneyMetals
Welcome to this week’s Market Wrap Podcast, I’m Mike Gleason.
Precious metals investors remain cautious following the Federal Reserve’s latest jumbo rate hike.
On Wednesday, the Fed announced another three-quarter point bump up on interest rates. It’s the sixth straight hike by central bankers and brings the Fed funds rate up to 4%. That’s the highest it has been since 2008.
Investors fully anticipated the Fed’s latest move but hoped it would be accompanied by a dovish statement from Chairman Jerome Powell. Instead, Powell threw cold water on the idea of a pause or pivot at the FOMC’s next meeting. In his remarks, he sounded less like a dove and more like a grinch who was preparing to severely punish Americans for the Fed’s past mismanagement and impose more pain to financial markets as the holiday season approaches.
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Tuesday, November 01, 2022
Macro changing in favor of the Gold Stocks Sector / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2022
By: Gary_Tanashian
Macro changing in favor of the gold stock sector is and has been a process
The process began with the leveling off of inflation’s momentum and continued as the global economy began to show signs of weakness (e.g. US manufacturing deceleration and developing supply chain slack among several other problem areas as exposed during the current earnings season).
While the nominal sector (HUI or the ETFs, GDX and GDXJ) has been bouncing within its intact downtrend it would be best to track other macro considerations along with the chart TA, which could signal a new bull phase by either completing a daily chart bottom/base (which nearly happened on Wednesday, but at least temporarily failed as the index and ETFs did not take out the October 4th highs) or completing a final decline, preferably amid much fear and angst among whatever inflation bugs may still be infesting the sector.
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