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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Commodities

Thursday, June 10, 2021

Gold’s Inflation Utility / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Gary_Tanashian

Gold is okay, but not yet unique

There are times when gold is an okay inflation hedge, while under-performing the likes of industrial metals, oil/energy, materials, etc. During those times, if you’re doggedly precious metals focused you should consider silver, which, as a hybrid precious metal/industrial commodity, has more pro-cyclical inflation utility than gold.

But as I have argued for much of the last year, if the inflated situation is working toward cyclical progress (as it is currently) then there is a world full of trades and investments out there to choose from, many of which are trouncing gold (which, as I have belabored for the better part of 2 decades now, is not about price but instead, value) in the inflated price casino.

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Commodities

Thursday, June 10, 2021

The Fuel Of The Future That’s 9 Times More Efficient Than Lithium / Commodities / Energy Resources

By: OilPrice_Com

...

 


Commodities

Wednesday, June 09, 2021

Gold Mining Stocks: Which Door Will Investors Choose? / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2021

By: P_Radomski_CFA

With the current situation suggestive of a Monty Hall problem, investors are clinging to the first, bullish door. But what if a different option is more likely?

The Monty Hall problem is a form of a probability puzzle, and what it shows is immensely unintuitive. Suppose you are on a game show, and you need to choose one of three doors. Behind one of them is a car and behind the others, goats. You pick a door, and then the host (who knows what’s behind them) opens one of the remaining doors, behind which there is a goat. The host now asks: “Do you want to change your door choice for the remaining doors?” So, what do you do?

It turns out that if you change the door, the probability of winning the car increases… two times! You have a 2/3 chance, instead of a 1/3. Tremendously unintuitive, indeed, but what if the same is happening on the market now? With a bullish prospect representing the door of the first choice, and the technicals and fundamentals the host’s help, wouldn’t it be safer to switch the door to win eventually?

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Commodities

Monday, June 07, 2021

The Return of Inflation. Can Gold Withstand the Dark Side? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Inflation broke into the economy violently. It’s a destructive, dark force. But gold can resist it, being after all a much stronger asset than Anakin Skywalker.

Last month, I wrote that “inflation is knock, knock, knockin’ on golden door”. I was wrong. Inflation didn’t knock, it broke down the door! Indeed, as the chart below shows, the core CPI surged 3%, while the overall CPI annual rate soared 4.2% in April – this is twice the Fed’s target!
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Commodities

Monday, June 07, 2021

When Markets Get Scared and Reverse / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Monica_Kingsley

S&P 500 wasted another good opportunity to rise – one where the credit markets were largely aligned. Is it a sign of upcoming tremors that the 500-strong index couldn‘t defend the daily gains? Commodities weren‘t under pressure, the dollar wasn‘t surging (looking at the closing prices), precious metals did well, and even lumber enjoyed a white candle again.

Inflation expectations retreated, and so did Treasury yields – what‘s holding stocks then? Neither uncertainty about the Fed policy, nor surging inflation cutting into P&L, nor crashing bonds – what we‘re seeing is run of the mill volatility as stocks move both into a structurally higher inflation environment, and await Fed moves which are much farther down the time line than the markets appreciate. Heck, even the option traders keep undergoing the earlier announced shift to complacency.

Yes, the taper talk has dialed back the inflation trades to a degree, but hasn‘t knocked them off in the least. In a reflation, both stocks and commodities do well, and we‘re still far away from worrying about weakening GDP growth rates (today‘s ADP and unemployment data are a good proof thereof) – in my view, worries about inflation not retreating nearly enough during this Treasury market lull (taking up this summer) would come into the picture first.

Reopening trades aren‘t over, the housing market activity (housing starts, new home sales) has slowed down a little while XLRE keeps running, financials remain as strong as value (yes, there is more juice in that trade still), and no mad rush into tech (growth) is underway. Capacity utilization isn‘t at the top of the pre-corona range exactly, and oil prices (these serve as additional tax, a drag on the economy) aren‘t biting nearly enough. The job market isn‘t at the strongest either, and the hours worked don‘t match prior extremes either. Last but not least, global supply chains haven‘t entirely recovered to meet the reopenings-boosted demand.

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Commodities

Monday, June 07, 2021

Is A New Superfuel About To Take Over Energy Markets? / Commodities / Energy Resources

By: Oilprice_Com

...

 


Commodities

Sunday, June 06, 2021

Stock Market: 4 Tips for Investing in Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Mark_Adan

Investment involves taking a risk. It involves putting your money on something with the hope that it will increase in value. Therefore, it will be difficult for you to participate in the investment if you are not a risk-taker. Anything can happen at any time, and you might end up incurring losses or profits. For someone who only had hopes of making a profit, the losses may discourage him/her.

 Investing in gold can be the best decision to make if you want to diversify your investment. Gold is always considered the safest asset because it does not depreciate. It means that its prices keep increasing with time. Therefore, you are sure of making a profit when you invest in it. Below are some of the tips for investing in gold.

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Commodities

Saturday, June 05, 2021

Money Is Cheap, Own Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: The_Gold_Report

Peter Krauth of the Gold Resource Investor discusses rising inflation and the role of hard assets. Sure Mr. Biden, money is cheap. But whose money is it?

The White House recently sent a $6 trillion budget plan to Congress.

Let that sink in for a moment.

Biden's first wide-ranging budget calls for big spending on infrastructure, education and, of course, climate change. His plan lays out $6 trillion in spending against just $4.2 trillion in revenues. That's an enormous 37% bump up from 2019 spending levels, and it suggests a deficit of $1.8 trillion, nearly double that of 2019.

The idea is to spend now while money is cheap, with interest rates at historical lows. In fact, they're at the lowest levels in 5,000 years of history.

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Commodities

Friday, June 04, 2021

Hedge Funds Getting Bullish on Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: MoneyMetals

The gold market has seen many momentum shifts in recent months. At the end of the day, however, the market really depends on one simple factor: Are the big money inflows trending in a bullish or bearish direction?

Near market lows, speculative interest tends to be heavily on the short (bearish) side. That sets the stage for buying pressure to be released when rallies force short sellers to cover their positions.

As traders shift to taking on more long (bullish) positions, momentum builds for higher prices.

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Commodities

Thursday, June 03, 2021

This Chart Shows When Gold Stocks Will Explode / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2021

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

The rebounds in Gold and Silver exceeded my expectations and closed May in a strong fashion, near the highs of the month.

Gold’s monthly close was the third-highest ever. Silver failed to break resistance at $28.50, but its monthly close at $28 was the second-highest in the last eight years.

As noted last week, Gold and gold stocks have perked up in real terms. 

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Commodities

Wednesday, June 02, 2021

The Meaning Behind Gold’s Triple Top / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Kelsey_Williams

In a previous article I wrote:

“Looking at this chart, it should be apparent that gold at $2000 is fully-priced. Unless you are convinced that the US dollar is going to crash soon, then expectations for much higher gold prices at this point  are unwarranted.”  ($10,000 Gold Or A Triple Top?)

The article was published in August 2020 and the chart is reprinted below…

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Commodities

Tuesday, June 01, 2021

Gold Investor's Survival Guide / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: EWI

Hi,

With Bitcoin losing more than 50% off its April high and retail prices rising across the board, you may be looking for a place to park your cash.

How about something with a bit of a track record in that area, like gold?

In 1975, gold futures were created. From there, opportunities to trade gold have flourished via stocks, ETFs and options.

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Commodities

Tuesday, June 01, 2021

Silver and Copper to Benefit from Global Electrification Push / Commodities / Electricity

By: MoneyMetals

Precious metals markets are making modest advances in this final trading week of May. U.S. markets will be closed on Monday in observance of Memorial Day.

During the extended weekend, millions more Americans compared to last year are expected to hit the roads for travel. They will be confronted with pain at the pump as gasoline prices have risen to over $3.00 per gallon in most parts of the country.

Other signs of a serious inflation problem are building following the massive cash injections into the economy by the Federal Reserve and the Joe Biden administration.

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Commodities

Tuesday, June 01, 2021

Will Gold Shine Under Bidenomics? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Bidenomics is a big departure from sound economics. But when reason sleeps, gold fortunes are born.

Biden’s triumph in the presidential election does not just mean that a new man lives in the White House. It actually implies a fundamental shift in economic policy . Some analysts even see Biden’s agenda as a decisive break with neoliberalism or “Washington consensus”.

You see, in the old orthodoxy, most economists trusted in markets, argued for privatization, deregulation, and liberalization. Taxes and social benefits should be low and don’t discourage work and investments. The governments should run balanced budgets, avoiding large and permanent fiscal deficits , while central banks should hike interest rates to prevent inflation from running out of control.
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Commodities

Monday, May 31, 2021

Is Gold Price Setting Up For A Rally Above $2000 Again? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Chris_Vermeulen

In Part I of this research article, I tried to highlight the major market cycle phases that often drive volatility, uncertainty, and bigger trends in the US/Global markets as well as Precious Metals.  Additionally, my team and I highlighted the technical confluence pattern that has setup as Gold prices have rallied above downward sloping price channels (price Flags) recently.  This confluence of technical patterns, while we are transitioning into a post-COVID-19 global economy, suggests that excess credit/debt issues throughout the global financial markets are seeking safety in preparation for some type of market reversion event.

The recent move above $1900 in gold shows that precious metals are likely entering a new bullish price phase.  We highlighted this in a May 3rd research article suggesting that a new advancing cycle phase may push Gold to levels above $2100.  If our research is correct, Gold may continue to rally higher – reaching a peak sometime near mid-October 2021.

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Commodities

Saturday, May 29, 2021

Silver SIL Global X Silver Miners ETF Fundamentals / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2021

By: Zeal_LLC

The silver miners’ stocks have mostly been consolidating high since last summer.  While they’ve enjoyed some sharp rallies, those have been within that sideways-grind trend.  That lack of overall upside progress has left this tiny contrarian sector out of favor, with apathy reigning.  But as their recently-reported Q1’21 operating and financial results revealed, silver stocks’ fundamentals and upside potential remain good.

There aren’t many major silver miners in the world, and only a handful are primary silver producers that derive over half their revenues from silver.  With such a small population, there are only a few silver-stock ETFs.  The leading one is still the SIL Global X Silver Miners ETF, which is also this tiny sector’s best benchmark.  But nearing the end of Q1’21’s earnings season in mid-May, it only held $1.3b in net assets.

Following a mighty upleg that peaked in early August at SIL $51.53, the silver stocks have largely drifted laterally since.  But their high trading range has been wide, encompassing both corrections and attempts at new uplegs.  Plenty of speculators and investors are still interested in this obscure sector, as evidenced by an amazing episode in late January.  That catapulted SIL a blistering 23.9% higher in just three trading days!

That was when Reddit’s famous wallstreetbets forum appeared to be starting to discuss engineering a silver short squeeze with massive retail buying.  At the time I wrote a whole essay analyzing that.  For our purposes today, that fascinating event proved that the right catalyst can still ignite big inflows into silver and its miners’ stocks.  Unfortunately SIL resumed correcting after that, slumping on balance into late March.

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Commodities

Thursday, May 27, 2021

Are Silver Prices Really Cheap; And Does It Matter? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Kelsey_Williams

Proponents of silver and their expectations for a much higher price have talked for years about the reasons “silver is undervalued” (their words, not mine).

Whether it is a deficit in new production of silver or the gold-to-silver ratio, there is always something to talk about; so let’s talk.

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Commodities

Wednesday, May 26, 2021

Gold: The Past Years Are Often the Best Guides / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: P_Radomski_CFA

As we know, history tends to rhyme. It’s never the same, but when you zoom out, the bigger picture often looks very similar. What does it mean for gold?

Short-term implications

With gold’s back-and-forth price action mirroring its behavior from 2012, the yellow metal is likely destined for devaluation.

Back then, gold zigzagged with anxiety before suffering a material drawdown. In fact, in early October 2012, it moved slightly above the initial highs right before sliding.

Moreover, while the yellow metal has bounced above its declining resistance line (the black line below), the price action mirrors gold’s behavior from early January. If you analyze the blue line below, you can see that investors’ optimism regarding gold’s short-term breakout quickly faded and the yellow metal sunk like a stone. In addition, with gold’s RSI (Relative Strength Index) moving slightly above 70 before the January swoon occurred, an identical development is already playing out in real time.

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Commodities

Sunday, May 23, 2021

Gold Approaches $1,900 amid FOMC Minutes and Crypto Sell-Off / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The latest FOMC minutes were dovish, especially in light of the recent increase in inflation and elevated asset valuations. What does it mean for gold?

Yesterday, the FOMC published minutes from its last meeting in April . They’ve shown two things doing that: first, that some of the central bankers are worried about the inflation and elevated asset valuations; and, second, that the Fed is going to remain dovish despite all these concerns .

Indeed, some FOMC participants noted that the demand for labor had started to put some upward pressure on wages. Moreover, a number of them pointed out the protracted supply disruptions and the insufficient pre-emptive hawkish reaction from the Fed as potentially inflationary factors:

A number of participants remarked that supply chain bottlenecks and input shortages may not be resolved quickly and, if so, these factors could put upward pressure on prices beyond this year. They noted that in some industries, supply chain disruptions appeared to be more persistent than originally anticipated and reportedly had led to higher input costs. (…)
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Commodities

Saturday, May 22, 2021

Cryptocurrency Crash Benefits Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: MoneyMetals

This week has been truly brutal for the entire cryptocurrency sector, with the prices of major currencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum crashing at least 30%. The overall sector has shed trillions of dollars in value.

The recent carnage for holders of digital currencies could be due to a variety of factors including profit taking spurred by Elon Musk, an easing of inflation worries, or concerns about new regulations coming down the pike.

Whatever the case may be, some of the capital that recently left the crypto space has found its way into the gold and silver markets. This trend could continue as well, with precious metals gathering strength and with Bitcoin still having plenty of room to fall further.

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