Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Monday, August 10, 2009
Elliott Wave Theory Suggests Bearish Outlook for Silver / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2009
Silver was decimated in last year’s market rout falling by over 80% in just seven months. Part of the reason is that it is not just bought for investment or jewellery purposes but is an industrial metal as well. Most people think of its industrial use in photography, but in fact it has myriad uses in the medical field because of its antibacterial qualities and more recently in creating superfibres for the clothing industry.
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Monday, August 10, 2009
Growing Inflation In Commodity Prices? / Commodities / Commodities Trading
So many economists and government officials are claiming inflation is dead. These are probably the same people that did not see the Great Recession coming. The fact is everyone has an opinion, however everyone is only entitled to the facts. The facts that are evident are multi fold.
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Sunday, August 09, 2009
Silver Relative Strength Signaling Precious Metals Warning / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2009
In the last update it was pointed out that silver looked stronger than gold, and it has since outperformed gold significantly, which in itself is a warning that the uptrend in the broad stockmarket is mature. However, the larger trend for silver must be classified as neutral at this time.
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Sunday, August 09, 2009
Gold Promising Technical's May Give Way to Downside Shakeout / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2009
Gold's technical's have been looking very promising in the recent past, but there have been two worrying developments over the past couple of weeks which suggest that we may be about to see a vicious shakeout rather than the breakout to new highs that so many are anticipating. One of these developments has been the very high number of advisors calling for an upside breakout on public website's, as many of you will be aware, and the other is the trend of COT data, with the latest figures being at levels that have in the past almost always signaled a reversal to the downside.
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Sunday, August 09, 2009
Gold Declined as U.S. Dollar Rallied, What's Next? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2009
The evil nemesis in the 1964 James Bond movie is international bullion dealer Auric Goldfinger who is stockpiling vast quantities of gold. Bond investigates at the request of The Bank of England and soon uncovers a dastardly plan by Goldfinger and Chinese agents to bring economic chaos to the West by irradiating the U.S. gold supply at Fort Knox with an atomic device, rendering it useless for 58 years. This would greatly increase the value of Goldfinger’s own gold supply and give the Chinese increased power following economic chaos in the West. Bond dodges steel-rimmed killer hats, overcomes Goldfinger’s sexy pilot and saves the day.
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Sunday, August 09, 2009
Gold Versus Stocks, the Trade of the Decade / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2009
Stocks have been a terrible investment over the past decade and they are about to get worse. Gold has been one of the best if not the best investment over the past decade and is about to get better. When you examine investments via relative merits, Gold has trounced general equities. Gold has also trounced paper cash, regardless of the fiat currency held, as well as real estate and commodities over the past decade.
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Sunday, August 09, 2009
Gold Closed Flat on the Week, Where Next? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2009
A little bit up, a little bit down but in the end getting nowhere during the week. Gold finished the week just about where it started although silver had a much better time being up 5.0% on the week. So, where are we now?
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Sunday, August 09, 2009
Taking Profits on Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2009
Trade Actions:
Sell both GOLD positions symbol GLD at the Market
Sell the OIL position symbol USO at the Market
Saturday, August 08, 2009
Will Central Banks Start Consficating Gold? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2009
As part of a series we first look at this question: "If the U.S. decides to confiscate gold in the future, what impact might that have on Gold Shares and the COMEX Gold Futures prices?"
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Saturday, August 08, 2009
Helping Investors Navigate Metals and Mining Rocky Road to Riches / Commodities / Metals & Mining
You don't hear a lot about "peak gold," but the fact is that great gold deposits are harder and more costly to find these days. Then getting the few finds into production takes more time and money than ever before. So why bother? Because the occasional success story makes it all worthwhile for the intelligent investor. "It's those few that really keep all of us in this game and keep all the money coming in," renowned exploration analyst and geologist Brent Cook tells The Gold Report readers. Brent, who produces the weekly Exploration Insights newsletter, also offers a few tips for intelligent investing in metals and mining that don't require expertise in mineralogy to put into practice.
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Friday, August 07, 2009
PowerShares DB DoubleShort Oil DTO ETN Expected to Climb / Commodities / Crude Oil
My near-term work indicates that the decline in the PowerShares DB DoubleShort Oil ETN (NYSE: DTO) from its July high (low for crude oil) is at completion, which if accurate will mean that DTO prices climb towards those July highs. Provided that today’s new corrective low at 71.01 contains any further intraday weakness, my first upside target is a climb to test the recent rally peak at 77.47.
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Friday, August 07, 2009
Agricultural Commodities Trading, Retreat in Wheat Does Not Look Complete / Commodities / Agricultural Commodities
The long term Wheat chart has twice tried to overcome its 23.6% recovery level and failed. Notable weakness in June put bulls firmly on the sidelines, and there remains good potential for further shorter term losses.
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Friday, August 07, 2009
SPX Stock Index Driving Gold Price Trend / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2009
Among gold investors, the major drivers of the gold price are well-known. From mine production and central-bank sales to jewelry and investment demand, gold’s fundamentals have been and will continue to be extensively studied. But over the past year, a curious and sometimes dominating new gold driver has emerged.
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Friday, August 07, 2009
Media’s Confusion with Commodity Futures Trading / Commodities / Commodities Trading
There was an interesting article yesterday in the Wall Street Journal. The article spoke about Bluetrend a trend follower & commodity trading advisor who last year earned 43.4%. The article discussing the struggles that Blue trend is currently going through this year ( down 5.5%). The truth is, in commodity futures trading returns like last year are above the norm.
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Friday, August 07, 2009
Crude Oil, Gas, and Gold Seasonal Trend Update / Commodities / Commodities Trading
Commodity speculators and investors (women excluded) can learn a lot by observing the purchasing habits of the “woman of the house.” Obviously it’s not in all cases, and the statement is a generalization of the observations that some of us have which as you’ll read is very complimentary and helps me make a point. Rather than call this a woman’s job, it’s really a job that men are horrible at and women quite frankly have to execute for the household. (Yes, many men can do it, I’m generalizing) Although sometimes women are accused of being big spenders or not careful. However in most cases and I think you’ll agree, when you look really close, most women are very savvy and educated consumers.
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Friday, August 07, 2009
Gold Static Trading Ahead of Non Farm Payroll Data / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2009
Trading in gold has been fairly static this morning with the market looking for direction from the release of non-farm payroll data, due out today. A bullish note for the long term prospects of gold was chimed today on the news that the ECB has agreed to only sell 400 tonnes of gold per annum over the next 5 years, down 100 tonnes per annum from previous announcements. Importantly, the ECB said that, "gold remains an important element of global monetary reserves." With annual demand already outstripping production, this news will bolster the viability of gold as a diversifier and inflation hedge.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, August 07, 2009
The Cobalt Commodity Story / Commodities / Metals & Mining
As a general rule, the most successful man in life is the man who has the best information
What is Happening with Cobalt?
Cobalt became one of the two “major” minor metals in this decade’s metals cycle, the other being molybdenum. Cobalt also made the short list of four metals that the European Union chose to name in its press release as representative of the 40 metals it is classifying as critical:
Friday, August 07, 2009
Silver Market Force / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2009
In this week’s missive I decided to take a clip from the August issue of The Morgan Report and share with readers what others have to say about the silver market.
Begin excerpt…
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Thursday, August 06, 2009
Uranium Will Rebound with Economy / Commodities / Uranium
The Energy Report checked in with Barbara Thomae, Senior Mining Analyst with the MineralFields Group, who says that they believe the economic recovery will spur reinvestment into the uranium sector, especially once uranium prices strengthen in line with other commodities. She says her firm's prudent portfolio picks (overweight in uranium and heavily overweight in gold juniors) have enabled them to have the best performance track record among all flow-through limited partnership groups for the past four years. Read on.
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Thursday, August 06, 2009
Gold Fails at Top of Trend Channel / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2009
This morning’s pop in the SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD) to a new recovery high (for July) at 95.38 was not sustained, and prices have since declined back into negative territory. More importantly, let’s notice that this morning’s high coincides with an attempt to push above the top of the July price channel, which apparently has failed on this attempt. The failure at the top of the channel argues for prices to come in beneath 94.00 towards 93.50 prior to another loop to the upside. It is with this in mind that I move to the sidelines for a while.
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