Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Monday, February 19, 2007
Gold Analysis : The Best Risk/Reward Trade Available / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Dominick
“The expectation therefore is that the action of a single day will not to buck the larger trend, which is for yields to continue their move lower.”
For the last two weeks, this update has been alerting readers to the fact the U.S. economy needs lower interest rates, in the form of bond yields, and household liquidity, in the form of a higher stock market. The effects of these moves would be to encourage buyers' working off the housing supply glut and to save the mortgage lending industry from collapse. It must be simply a coincidence that the pace of both these trends, lower yields and higher stocks, accelerated last Wednesday on Chairman Bernanke's testimony.
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Sunday, February 18, 2007
Weekly Gold and Silver Technical Analysis Report - 18th Feb 2007 - Technically Precious with Merv / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Merv_Burak
Butting heads with that $675 resistance level gold just couldn't get enough steam to get anywhere this past week. Maybe this coming week – or maybe not.
GOLD : LONG TERM On the long term P&F chart we are now at that $675 resistance level previously mentioned. Depending upon which long term chart one uses ($10 or $15 units) will depend upon what level would be considered the break-out. Since I have switched over to the $15 unit charts some time back, due to the high price level of the activity, that break-out would be on a move to the $690 level. As mentioned last week we do have a bullish upside break by gold's lower resistance break so one would be a cautious long term bull based upon that but still waiting for the next confirmation break.
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Thursday, February 15, 2007
Gold is looking overbought in the short-term and could correct lower to $630 / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Clive_Maund
We have seen the breakout predicted in the last Gold Market update, although so far subsequent gains have been modest as gold continues to be restrained by the strong resistance level shown on the 1-year chart in the $655 - $680 zone. Although we have seen limited gains so far following this breakout, it was nevertheless an important technical development that is viewed as marking the start of a major uptrend which is still in its infancy.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, February 15, 2007
Silver showing signs of weakness as failing to breakout higher / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Clive_Maund
Silver is believed to be slowly limbering up to take out the resistance at and towards last year's highs, an event that can be expected to lead to a major advance. However, shorter-term the picture is not so bright.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, February 15, 2007
Gold, Google Hits and Market Tops / Commodities / Google
By: Roland_Watson
It has been a while since I last published how our gold and silver sentiment indicator has been getting on. To remind readers, for the past year now I have been collecting the number of Google hits on key phrases relevant to the gold bull market. Care has been taken that one does not end up with hits related to the latest fashions in gold jewelry or what the latest theories are on some gold artifacts found in archaeological digs. We are only interested in the gold bull market and I hope the hits collected over that time reflect that.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, February 14, 2007
Metals ready to explode higher ! - Gold, Silver, Uranium / Commodities / Investing
By: Money_and_Markets
I spent last week at the Money Show in Orlando. As usual, I was frantic — trying to race between speakers, my own presentation, and sit-down interviews with some of the best little natural resource companies you never heard of (yet).
And the metals markets were just as frantic last week! Silver was leading gold higher, but gold had such a strong Thursday and Friday that the yellow metal might be taking over as lead dog now.
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Monday, February 12, 2007
Crude Oil - Will it go down to $40 or up to $100 / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Hans_Wagner
If you knew the answer to this one, you could make a lot of money and beat the market . So let's take a look at the issues and see what can be determined. First, demand is going to increase over time as an energy-hungry developing world needs more and more energy. Take a look at this chart from the Bank Credit Analyst showing the percentage of global oil consumption that comes from China and India. It is going from the lower left to the upper right, and only slowed during the slowdown in global growth around 2001.
Sunday, February 11, 2007
Weekly Gold and Silver Technical Analysis Report - 11th Feb 2007 - Technically Precious with Merv / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Merv_Burak
Do you believe the world wide attention the death of Anna Nicole has been receiving? No wonder gold was moving higher and higher almost every day this week.
GOLD : LONG TERM
The long term prognosis is looking better and better every day, except for momentum. It is still under performing the price move but IS moving higher. While the price is just about ready to breach its $677.50 resistance from the June/July rally high, momentum is still some distance below its high level. Volume, however, is ready to move into new all time highs although the daily action still leaves a lot to be desired. The price continues above its moving average line and although the line is only slightly in the positive direction it is turning more so.
Saturday, February 10, 2007
Gold Breakout and HUI Index Set to Advance to between 700 - 900 / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Clive_Maund
The title of this article was designed to get you to click on it and open it, and now that you're here, you should stick around because you are probably going to find this interesting.
In this game the most important things to observe are often the simplest - many people get lost in a quicksand of detail so that they can't see the woods for the trees, and thus end up losing sight of the big picture. So today we are going to keep it simple and to the point, which is easy because the market itself is giving us some very clear indications.
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Thursday, February 08, 2007
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee (GATA) Attack EMail on Article about Gold Price Manipulation / Commodities / Strategic News
By: Clive_Maund
After my article Gold price manipulation - DOES IT MATTER? was posted yesterday on www.clivemaund.com and The Market Oracle, I was somewhat surprised to find myself the subject of a personal attack by a Chris Powell, who is apparently the Secretary/Treasurer of an organization going by the acronym of GATA (Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee), that was delivered in the form of an Email circulated to the "Friends of GATA and Gold", the contents of which are reproduced unedited below.
This unwarranted attack, which was foolishly made not just against myself but against Dennis Gartman of The Gartman Letter and Technical Analysts generally, is something I feel entitled and obliged to respond to, and you will find my response lower down the page, but first read the contents of Mr Powell's Email...
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Thursday, February 08, 2007
Crude Oil Production Means Investment - Iran and Venezuela are Failing to Invest / Commodities / Analysis & Strategy
By: Elliot_H_Gue
Here's a challenge for you: Name the top three largest oil-producing countries in the world.If you're like most investors, you probably know that the world's largest oil producer is Saudi Arabia. In 2005, Saudi Arabia churned out more than 11 million barrels of oil per day, roughly 13.5 percent of the world's total supply. And you may have guessed the world's second-largest producer: the Russian Federation. In 2005, Russia chipped in about 9.5 million barrels per day, a bit more than 12 percent of the total global production.
But guessing the world's third-largest producer is more of a challenge. If you guessed Nigeria, Venezuela, Iraq, Iran, the United Kingdom or Canada, you're incorrect. The third-largest oil producer in the world is the US. The US produced 6.8 million barrels of oil per day in 2005, edging out Iran by more than 2.75 million barrels per day.
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Wednesday, February 07, 2007
Gold Price Manipulation - Does it Matter ? / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Clive_Maund
There has been more talk in recent weeks on the subject of gold price manipulation. The purpose of this article is not to attempt to go into the details of whether or not there is manipulation, or how much there is, or who is doing it or why, because all of this is has been raked over by other writers in considerable detail. The purpose of this article is to examine what difference it makes to us as investors and traders, and how best to live with it.
The first point to make clear is that to whatever degree there is gold price manipulation/suppression, there is nothing much the ordinary investor can do about it - you are going to have to live with it, like taxation - so there's no point in losing any sleep over it.
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Tuesday, February 06, 2007
Market Mania in Crude Oil, Base Metals, Tokyo Gold, Yen and China / Commodities / Analysis & Strategy
By: Gary_Dorsch
The name “Einstein” is synonymous with great intelligence and genius. Albert Einstein was named Time magazine's "Man of the Century,” because he transformed humankind's understanding of nature on every scale, from the smallest to that of the cosmos. Einstein's theory of relativity is embodied in all motion throughout the universe, and the nature of energy, matter, motion, time, and space.Unfortunately, Einstein didn't take a fancy to studying the daily motion of commodity and stock markets, where wild and erratic gyrations often seem to have no logical explanation. Why did the zinc market soar nearly 400% due to fast shrinking supplies, only to surrender a third of its gains, over the past two months? How do some copper miners defy the laws of gravity and climb to record highs, even after the price of copper has dropped by almost 50% below its all time highs?
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Tuesday, February 06, 2007
Market Wrap - Commodities, Gold and Silver / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Douglas_V_Gnazzo
For the week, the CRB index gained 1.8% - still down just under 2% for the year. However, pay heed to the second chart below that paints a whole different picture regarding commodities.
Wheat prices fell 0.5%, the fifth decline in six weeks. However, do not be mislead, as the price of wheat was up 48% last year, reaching a 10 year high of $5.57 in October. We view this as just the beginning of a long term trend.
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Tuesday, February 06, 2007
Market Wrap - Oil & Energy / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Douglas_V_Gnazzo
Crude Oil rose to $59 a barrel based on increased demand due to cold weather finally settling in across most of the nation. In many areas the temperature was colder than normal.
Prior to this snap of cold weather, the winter season has been one of the mildest on record. OPEC also plans on cutting production, which coupled with increased demand results in higher prices.
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Monday, February 05, 2007
Gold and Silver Forecast to Break Higher / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Dominick
Regular readers know last week's update was about the forces moving the precious metals markets and what we could expect to see based on how those forces were likely to interact. We particularly discussed the correlation between stocks and gold, that the stronger economy had been producing a perception of greater demand with more acute inflation expectations, both of which were bullish for the metals. We'd noted previously that this relationship could also be seen with bond yields, which also tend to move upward as stocks and metals appreciate in value. This first chart shows all three asset classes since January 3rd.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, February 05, 2007
Weekly Gold and Silver Technical Analysis Report - Possibility of Breakout Failure / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Merv_Burak
GOLDIt was looking good there for a while but then along came Friday. Why always Friday? Maybe it just seems like sharp moves occur on Friday's. Maybe speculators do not wish to hold contracts over the week-end.
LONG TERM Well, the first thing is the long term P&F chart (see chart in last week's commentary). Thursday's action broke that initial resistance at $645 with a move to $660 to provide a bullish signal. The swift reversal on Friday, however, puts that break-out in doubt. As mentioned last week I think it's best to wait for a move to $690 which would break through the next serious barrier. That would then set up a stronger move that would take us through to new bull market highs and then through the 1980 rally high of $748. After that, the 1980 all time high of $894. But let's take it one step at a time.
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Sunday, February 04, 2007
Stocks & Commodity Markets Elliott Wave Analysis - 4th Feb 07 - Mission Accomplished / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Dominick
It wasn't easy to present yet another update last week that anticipated additional highs in the face of an outside down week, which has a great track record of being correct. The January 28 th update stated:
“Could the reversal looking pattern only be part of a larger correction that's stalling for time? When I look over many of my charts, the answer that pops out is yes. So, even though I can label a top is in, I won't do it yet for several reasons. The sentiment on that drop wasn't what I wanted to see and, believe it or not, I have two very valid setups for additional highs. Another huge leg up isn't in the cards, but I'm not about to be short prematurely into the squeeze of all squeezes and get taken out of the position minutes before it turns.”
Once again, the market had most traders convinced last week the top was in only to leave them on the sidelines or, worse, short. It's amazing the market simply won't pull back and continues to grind upward leaving no one a chance to get in cheap.
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Sunday, February 04, 2007
The USA and Saudi Arabia Combat the Axis of Oil - Iran, Russia and Venezuela / Commodities / Analysis & Strategy
By: Gary_Dorsch
Crude oil is the key weapon in the battle between Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the UAE, aligned with the United States, against the “Oil Axis” of Iran, Russia, and Venezuela. The Persian Gulf Oil kingdoms fear the emergence of a Tehran-led axis linking Iran, Iraqi Shiites, Syria, Lebanon's Hezbollah, Palestinian Hamas in Gaza, and Islamic militants linked to al Qaeda trying to topple the Saudi royal family.Earlier this month, Riyadh fired the first shot in the war against Iran, by knocking the price of crude oil to as low as $50 per barrel. The goal is to squeeze Iran's budget and wreck havoc on its economy, as much as possible, before the Ayatollahs can get their hands on the nuclear bomb. According to a Jan 24th report in the UK Telegraph, that indicated North Korea is helping Iran to prepare an underground nuclear test similar to the one Pyongyang carried out last year.
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Friday, February 02, 2007
Uranium Bull Market Set to Continue During February / Commodities / Strategic News
By: James_Finch
Buyers have begun to show willingness in paying higher prices for uranium oxide (U3O8). Sellers remain confident they can get even higher prices. The recent six-week stalemate ended when Trade Tech raised the uranium spot price indicator to $75/pound in the consulting firm's month-end report.
