Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Saturday, May 19, 2018
GDX Gold Mining Stock Fundamentals 2018 / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018
The major gold miners’ stocks are still largely grinding sideways, mired in a bearish sentiment wasteland. Traders tend to assume low stock prices must be righteous, reflecting weak fundamentals rather than poor psychology. But once a quarter earnings seasons’ bright fundamental sunlight parts the obscuring fogs of popular sentiment. The gold miners’ just-reported Q1’18 results prove they remain deeply undervalued.
Four times a year publicly-traded companies release treasure troves of valuable information in the form of quarterly reports. Companies trading in the States are required to file 10-Qs with the US Securities and Exchange Commission by 45 calendar days after quarter-ends. Canadian companies have similar requirements. In other countries with half-year reporting, many companies still partially report quarterly.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, May 19, 2018
Welsh Gold Being Hyped Due To Harry Meghan Royal Wedding? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
– Welsh gold and the misconceptions surrounding it – GoldCore speak to China Central Television (CCTV)
– Welsh gold mired in misconceptions, namely that it is ‘rarest’ and most ‘sought after’ gold in world
– Investors to be reminded that all mined gold is rare and homogenous
– Nothing chemically different between Welsh gold and that mined elsewhere
– Investors led to believe Welsh gold is more valuable, despite lack of authenticity in some Welsh gold products
– Peak gold: We tell Beijing’s largest TV network that Welsh gold is limited but so too is gold everywhere
Friday, May 18, 2018
Three Drivers of Gold Price / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
We cannot value gold. It does not generate any cash flows, which we could discount. But it doesn’t mean that the price of gold changes randomly. Market sentiment is powerful in the precious metals market – but the same applies to other markets (after all, humans are emotional creatures). However, it does not operate in a void. Actually, there are some important fundamental drivers at work. Just like in the cosmos. It seems to be empty space – but gravity works there. Similarly, the precious metal market seems to be very emotional and without any logic, but when you look closely, you will discover important forces in action. What are they?
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, May 18, 2018
Natural Gas Flashes Buy Signal with Cycles Confirming / Commodities / Natural Gas
Our research team has been following the energy sector quite intensely with Oil and Natural Gas making an impressive move. A little known seasonal pattern in Natural Gas has setup recently and we have alerted our members to this play which is already up over 16%. Our advanced price modeling systems and Adaptive Dynamic Learning Cycles have recently triggered another buy entry point which we share in this article but first look at the seasonal chart showing the month which Natural Gas is generally strong.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, May 18, 2018
We FINALLY Got Our Pullback In Gold GLD ETF / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
As the title notes, we are finally getting that 5th wave down in the GLD after weeks of meandering. Moreover, not only are we getting that 5th wave down, the 3rd wave within this 5th wave down extended beyond the 3.618 extension of waves i and ii down. And, such a strong extension is certainly doing its job in getting even more people souring on this complex.
Moreover, as I am reading out there in the blog-world, it seems many are turning quite negative with gold breaking below its 200DMA. Clearly, this is EXACTLY what we want to see to strike a bottom in the complex.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, May 18, 2018
GOLD Bullish Opportunity – Unrivaled for years to come! / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
Hello everyone,
Well, the headlines were piling on strong today with doomsday predictions for GOLD and pie in the sky predictions for Crude oil!
Of course this is perfect timing as usual because;
Extreme sentiments always appear at the end of a trend,
when people tend give in to the unrelenting price move, which has already happened!
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, May 18, 2018
Gold Market in First Tertile of 2018 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
The first four months of 2018 were positive for the gold market. The price of the yellow metal has gained about 2 percent in that period. As one can see in the chart below, the rally started in mid-December.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, May 17, 2018
IEA: High Oil Prices “Taking A Toll” On Demand / Commodities / Crude Oil
Geopolitics has taken over the oil market, driving oil prices up to three-year highs. The inventory surplus has vanished, and more outages could push oil prices up even higher. Yet, there are some signs that demand is starting to take a hit as oil closes in on $80 per barrel.
In the IEA’s May Oil Market Report, the agency said that OPEC might be needed to step in and fill the supply gap if a significant portion of Iran oil goes offline. Saudi Arabia suggested shortly after the U.S. announced its withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal that OPEC would act to mitigate any supply shortfall should it occur.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, May 17, 2018
Gold Price No More Subtleness – It’s Show Time! / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
On May 1st, we knew that the precious metals sector was starting a 2-week rally based on cyclical turning points, apex-based reversals, and True Seasonality for May. The rally is over, the profits cashed in… And growing once again thanks to the new short position. What’s in store for the rest of the month and the next few ones? Something epic.
Let’s start todays’ analysis with the two most important short-term reasons due to which the outlook for the precious metals sector just became very bearish.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, May 17, 2018
Silver’s Long Consolidation Looks Like a Launching Pad / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
The primary trend for gold and silver over the past year and a half has been the absence of any clear direction in prices. Metals markets have been stuck in consolidation mode. Yet for silver, in particular, that consolidation has formed a clear and potentially powerful pattern.
The silver market’s consolidation has formed a symmetrical triangle pattern. Prices are now nearing the apex of that triangle. The pattern cannot hold much longer – it must soon break in one direction or the other. And when it does, the move that follows should be sudden and sharp in one direction or the other.
Wednesday, May 16, 2018
Key Gold Correlation Is Back! / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
It’s back. The crucial correlation returned to the gold market. Does it herald important shifts in trends?
Real Interest Rates Are Back in Town
One of the biggest developments in the gold market during the first four months of 2018 was the breakdown of the traditional negative correlation between real interest rates and the price of bullion. As one can see in the chart below, the price of gold was uncorrelated or even moved in tandem with long-term, inflation-indexed U.S. Treasury yields in Q1 2018.
Wednesday, May 16, 2018
The Coming Copper Crunch / Commodities / Copper
Copper had one of it best years ever in 2017, rising 27% on the back of supply disruptions and steady demand from China, by far the largest copper consumer.
Commodities analysts are usually wrong about copper supply, always predicting a glut in the market for the ubiquitous metal used in everything from piping for plumbing to wiring in houses, to components of electric vehicles. What they fail to account for is the inevitable stoppages at the major copper mines due mostly to strikes and weather problems.
In 2017 however they were right. In January last year a collection of analysts - BMI, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup and TD - were all bullish on copper, saying that after a terrible 2015 and 2016, it would be the strongest performing metal of 2017 with predictions of up to $6,200 a tonne come mid-year. By the end of 2017 copper futures trading on the London Metal Exchange (LME) were at their highest in four years, $7,236.50 a tonne or $3.28 a pound. Copper wasn’t the best performing metal of 2017 (that would be cobalt) but it was third behind palladium.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, May 15, 2018
The Missing Link for Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
Last week we discussed the fundamentals of Gold, which do not appear bullish at the moment. Real rates (and yields) are rising and investment demand for Gold is flat. That in itself is a temporary but big missing link. However, we are referring to the missing link in the context of intermarket analysis. Gold is an asset that performs best when its outperforming its competitors. That’s true of any asset but especially Gold because it traditionally has been a counter-investment or an anti-investment. While Gold is firmly outperforming Bonds and showing strength against global currencies, it remains neutral to weak against global equities.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, May 14, 2018
Gloomy Scenarios for the Fed That Should Boost Precious Metals / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
Mike Gleason: It is my privilege now to welcome in Craig Hemke of the TF Metals Report. Craig runs one of the most highly respected and well-known websites in the entire industry and has been covering the precious metals for a decade now, and he puts out some of the best analysis on banking schemes, the flaws of Keynesian economics, and evidence of manipulation in the gold and silver markets.
Craig, it's been entirely too long. Thanks for joining us again, and how are you my friend?
Craig Hemke: Oh, Mike, it's always a pleasure. Thank you for having me back on. I'm a little more grayer, more wrinkles, all that kind of stuff in the last time since we've spoken, but that's what these markets will do to you, that's for sure.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, May 14, 2018
Precious Metals and Miners NUGT – The Sleeping Giant Trade / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018
Throughout this year, many analysts have focused on the price of Gold, Platinum & Silver markets for insight to the fear levels that exist in the global markets. Demand for Gold and Silver have been near historically high levels for the past 12+ months and the ratio of Gold to Silver has continued to show that Silver is extremely undervalued in relative value to Gold. We’ve highlighted these facts in previous articles to our readers.
The recent news regarding economic and political concerns regarding a wide range of Emerging Markets and established economies, we believe, has continued to drive upward price pressures in the precious metals markets. We feel the Metals & Miners are setting up a unique opportunity for patient and skilled traders/investors. Possibly, the opportunity of a lifetime if our analysis is correct.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, May 13, 2018
The Truth About Gold That Neither Bugs Nor Bulls Want to Admit / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
Let’s talk about Gold as an investment.
Gold is one of the most divisive asset classes on the planet. Stock-centric investors such as Warren Buffett think it’s a worthless “pet rock” that fails to appreciate in value. Gold bugs, on the other hand, revere the precious metal with an almost religious-like ferocity.
Both of these views are misguided particularly when you apply them to a framework that involves TIME.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, May 13, 2018
Silver Forecast 2018 and Beyond, Investing for the $35+ Price Spike! / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
Silver the poor mans gold has so far failed to show any spark of life this year, opening the 2018 at $17.20, and then briefly rallying to a February peak of $17.60 before turning and remaining negative for the year, under performing Gold which has managed to remain positive for the year as both precious metals have effectively flat lined since their February highs, with Silver remaining stuck within a tight trading range of between $16.90 and $16.10 which is a far cry from the bullish expectations of many Silver bugs at the start of the year.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, May 12, 2018
Trump’s Iran-Decision Did-not and Won’t Affect Oil Prices / Commodities / Crude Oil
:Unless U.S.A. decides to go to War to Impress Stormy Daniels.
- By some reports, President Trump’s Iran-decision caused oil prices to “jump 3%”. Actually that was intra-day; the change day-on-day was 1.7%. The probability the mini-jump was not caused by the announcement is 59%; since the null-hypothesis needs less than 5% to be called “statistically-significant”, that’s not. The probability is 86% if you do four-day changes, i.e. even less probable.
- The day after Benjamin Netanyahu made his presentation on Iran, oil prices dropped 2.8%; which, intriguingly, is “statistically significant” (P>[t]=0.0438*); perhaps the markets’ take; was that they figured the likelihood of an interruption in Iranian oil supplies, or a war, was less likely, after they heard the presentation?
Friday, May 11, 2018
Navigating The Bullish Crude Cycle / Commodities / Crude Oil
From A Technical Analysis PerspectiveCrude remains short-term bullish as long as the nearest WTI contract trades above the blue dotted horizontal support region.
Oil ran up and made higher highs inside the pale blue trend channel. The progress got confirmed by geopolitical newsflow. Moreover, the most important commodity price gained despite a stronger US dollar. A breakout above the January 2018 high got further traction after being retested at the end of April 2018. Oil prices surpassed the solid blue trendline spanning back to June 2016 this trading week. We asses that as a fake breakout as part of a leading diagonal. Oil prices are likely to correct into the 66.50-67.00 region before resuming the uptrend.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, May 11, 2018
The Precious Metals Conundrum / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
First published on Sun May 6, 2018 for members of ElliottWaveTrader.net: A sideways correction lasting a year and a half certainly does a lot to sour investors on a market. And, even though we have not dropped below 20 in GDX this entire time and the GLD has been consolidating just under its breakout region for months, the bearishness and frustration in the complex is palpable. In fact, I have even seen people calling for sub $1000 gold again, and we have not even broken a single support level yet. For me, this is a head scratcher.
Read full article... Read full article...