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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Tuesday, June 25, 2013

Deflation By Any Other Name Would Smell As Foul / Economics / Deflation

By: Raul_I_Meijer

Over the past two weeks or so, we've been seeing a very clear portrait of how sick our economies are. Not that you would know it from reading the press. The term deflation pops up only very cautiously. Could that be because people don't understand what's going on? Or are they simply afraid of the word? This is the real thing, guys. And it's going to hurt.

Money (actually: credit) has shifted out of emerging markets by the trillions. So where did it go? Not into bonds, stocks or precious metals. Money shifted out of there too, and also by the trillions. Money isn't going anywhere, it's going "poof". It's vanishing and will never be seen again.

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Economics

Monday, June 24, 2013

The Deflationist Error / Economics / Deflation

By: Alasdair_Macleod

Many people believe there is a significant risk that the Irving Fisher debt-deflation theory of great depressions is still an economic threat today. They overlook the fact that Fisher published his theory examining debt-deflation events under a gold standard, which does not apply today. Financial credit contractions therefore take a different appearance.

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Economics

Sunday, June 23, 2013

Keynes And The Cult Of Economic Doom / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Andrew_McKillop

FERGUSON APOLOGIZES
Iconic history don and bestselling author Niall Ferguson apologised "unreservedly" for "stupid and tactless" remarks in which he implied that John Maynard Keynes did not care about future generations – “in the long run we are all dead” - because Keynes was a childless homosexual. As we know to our present and future cost, Keynes was more concerned about ultra low short-term interest rates and vast government handouts, financed by borrowing. Ferguson claims his disagreement with Keynes, his opposition to deficit spending and the economic philosophy called “Keynesianism” was nothing to do with Keynes' sexual orientation. Ferguson said his real point was: “The point I had made in my presentation was that in the long run our children, grandchildren and great-grandchildren are alive and will have to deal with the consequences of our economic actions." On that score we can only agree.

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Economics

Saturday, June 22, 2013

France On its Way to Becoming the New Greece / Economics / France

By: John_Mauldin

The France that I see as I look out from the bullet train today is far different from the France I see when I survey the economic data. Going from Marseilles to Paris, the countryside is magnificent. The farms are laid out as if by a landscape artist – this is not the hurly-burly no-nonsense look of the Texas landscape. The mountains and forests that we glide through are glorious. It is a weekend of special music all over France, and last night in Marseilles the stages were alive and the crowds out in force. The French people smile and graciously correct my pidgin attempts at speaking French. I have found it diplomatic not to mention that I think France is in for a very difficult future. Why spoil the party?

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Economics

Thursday, June 20, 2013

Is GDP Economic Growth a Hoax? What are they Hiding? / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Sam_Chee_Kong

There is always an assurance from our Government that the economy is doing fine, jobs are recovering, wages are going up and prices are under control. We are never been told what actually happened behind the scene or problems our economy is facing. Through propaganda by the media we are persuaded that everything is in the safe hands of the Government.

Even when economies around us are collapsing we are led to believe that our economy is the strongest, our share market is the best performing, our economic fundamentals are the best or in short we are the best managed economy. We are given the impression that our economy is ‘invincible and different from others’. But the problem is whether our economy is living up to what was preached by our Government. Is there a way to gauge the real performance of our economy other than relying on figures published by them?

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Economics

Wednesday, June 19, 2013

China's Innovation Hurdle Points to Withering Economy / Economics / China Economy

By: John_Mauldin

All weekend long and this morning as I wake up in Monaco, the number of disparate publications screaming at me about problems in China is just overwhelming. Then I get myself up early to hear a speech by the esteemed British economist Charles Dumas of Lombard Street fame, and I am confronted with even more China. I have been watching China for a long time, expecting a crisis, as I readily admit I simply do not understand a country that has defied so many of the economic laws of gravity for so long. Some kind of return to normal economic paradigms seems almost mandated, but the question has always been when. Have the Chinese discovered some new control mechanism, found some different levers to pull that they should share with the rest of the world, or will we see them revert to something that looks more like whatever it is that passes for "normal" these days? My bet has always been the latter.

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Economics

Sunday, June 16, 2013

Revenge of the Minsky Moment, Economists Are Still Clueless / Economics / Economic Theory

By: John_Mauldin

Economists set themselves too easy, too useless a task if in tempestuous seasons they can only tell us that when the storm is past the ocean is flat again. - John Maynard Keynes, A Tract on Monetary Reform

There can be few fields of human endeavor in which history counts for so little as in the world of finance. Past experience, to the extent that it is part of memory at all, is dismissed as the primitive refuge of those who do not have insight to appreciate the incredible wonders of the present. - John Kenneth Galbraith

Hitler must have been rather loosely educated, not having learned the lesson of Napoleon's autumn advance on Moscow. - Sir Winston Churchill

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Economics

Friday, June 14, 2013

France’s Economic Cul-De-Sac / Economics / France

By: David_Howden

Over a year ago, in the midst of an ongoing economic crisis, François Hollande celebrated his victory over Nicolas Sarkozy in France’s presidential elections. Hollande became the leader of a country in economic turmoil. In the past year, he has had relatively free rein to carry out his economic agenda, since the Socialist Party he leads has a majority in the French Parliament.

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Economics

Friday, June 14, 2013

What's Going on with Inflation Today... and What to Do About It / Economics / Inflation

By: DailyWealth

Dr. David Eifrig writes: Every month, about 300,000 Americans celebrate their 65th birthday. This is the age most of us think of when we hear "retirement."

The arch nemesis of those newly minted retirees is inflation.

Most folks looking to retire need safe investment income. This traditionally comes from owning bonds, which pay a fixed rate. But if your income stream is fixed... and the price of goods and services shoots higher... your cash stream is worth less. If you're relying on that income for your retirement, you could be in trouble.

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Economics

Thursday, June 13, 2013

Iran’s Inflation Bogey / Economics / Inflation

By: Steve_H_Hanke

With Friday’s Iranian Presidential election fast approaching, there has been a cascade of reportage in the popular press about that opaque country. When it comes to economic data, Iran has resorted to lying, spinning and concealment – in part, because of its mores and history, and more recently, the ever-tightening international sanctions regime. In short, deception has been the order of the day.

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Economics

Thursday, June 13, 2013

S&P Credit Ratings Agency Upgrades U.S. Economic Outlook - Wrong Again! / Economics / US Economy

By: Money_Morning

Martin Hutchinson writes: If you're not familiar with the term "putting lipstick on a pig," well I think there is an apt example at play again from the people who seem to be experts at applying the lipstick.

Standard and Poor's this week raised the outlook for the U.S. credit rating from "negative" to "stable," citing reduced fiscal risks and policymakers' willingness to sustain growth.

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Economics

Wednesday, June 12, 2013

What’s Really Holding Back the U.S. Economy / Economics / US Economy

By: InvestmentContrarian

Sasha Cekerevac writes: There continues to be much speculation over when the Federal Reserve will begin to reduce its asset purchase program and lower the level of monetary stimulus. The biggest concern for both the Federal Reserve and the nation is the level of job creation.

Last week, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its monthly report on the level of non-farm job creation, which was as expected: neither too hot nor too cold, with a total of 175,000 new jobs created for the month of May. (Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, June 7, 2013.)

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Economics

Wednesday, June 12, 2013

The Risk of Government Economic Policies and the Rationing of Retirement / Economics / Economic Theory

By: John_Mauldin

In addition to our own, there is another conference I normally go to every spring; but sadly, I missed it this year. Rob Arnott of Research Affiliates indulges me and lets me attend the annual Research Affiliates Advisory Panel he conducts at some exclusive location (usually but not always) in Southern California, in close proximity to one or more fabulous gourmet establishments. And he is an oenophile of the first rank, a pastime that at one time in my life was a huge attraction. I now just live vicariously when he orders wine.

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Economics

Wednesday, June 12, 2013

Is Japan's Economy Heading for Another Lost Decade? / Economics / Japan Economy

By: Frank_Shostak

Recently various commentators have been warning Euro-zone policymakers that they needed to boost stimulus policies in order to avoid a Japanese-style lost decade. To support their case, they point to the years 1991 to 2000. The average growth of real GDP in Japan during that period stood at 1.2 percent versus the average growth of 4.7 percent during 1980 to 1990. In terms of industrial production, the average growth stood at 0.1 percent versus 4.1 percent.

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Economics

Wednesday, June 12, 2013

Is Economic Austerity Responsible for the Crisis in Europe? / Economics / Economic Austerity

By: MISES

Martin Masse writes: Most European economies have been in recession, or close to it, since the beginning of 2012. Unemployment rates are reaching record highs. Meanwhile, a debate has been raging about the deleterious effects of “austerity” measures. Various heads of government, finance ministers, and European Union officials have declared that austerity has gone too far and is preventing a recovery.

Keynesian economists like Paul Krugman are seeing this as unassailable proof that stimulus policies adopted when the financial crisis started in 2008-09 should never have been reversed and replaced by austerity measures, notwithstanding the explosion of public debt that they entailed.

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Economics

Tuesday, June 11, 2013

The Nonsense Behind State Economic Intervention / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Alasdair_Macleod

Both Keynesians and monetarists believe that increased government spending, or more money injected into the economy, is sometimes necessary. The intervention is in the form of unfunded government spending, artificially low interest rates to boost demand for money and bank credit, or a drive to make the currency “competitive” by lowering it. These methods have been tried unsuccessfully time and again, and they must be denounced if we are to understand our true economic condition.

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Economics

Tuesday, June 11, 2013

Here's Your Inflation / Economics / Inflation

By: Michael_Pento

Wall St. Pundits have summarily exculpated Ben Bernanke from the negative effects derived from artificial interest rates and massive increase in the Fed's balance sheet. Specifically, most market commentators now claim with certainty that the central bank's unprecedented manipulation of markets has been done without creating any inflation.

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Economics

Sunday, June 09, 2013

Finding Japanese Optimists in the Demographics of Doom / Economics / Japan Economy

By: John_Mauldin

As kids, not knowing that we were being politically incorrect on so many levels, we would shout “Geronimo!” when we were playing war or getting ready to do something reckless. (For those not familiar, Geronimo was a rather fearsome Apache chief who plagued Mexico and the American cavalry.) Sam Houston and his fellows cried, “Remember the Alamo!” as they rode down upon Santa Ana at San Jacinto. The British went to battle with “God Save the Queen [or King]!” Confederate soldiers took up the rebel yell as they charged live bullets and fixed bayonets. Every good war movie has its own memorable moment of the battle charge.

In Japan, the term Banzai! literally means “ten thousand years” and can be used to wish someone long life and happiness. But during World War II, “Banzai!” was shouted in battle. It was the Japanese equivalent of "Long live the king!" – but to soldiers on the other side it came to mean a suicidal, hell-for-leather attack.

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Economics

Friday, June 07, 2013

Massive QE: Economic Death by Insulin Overdose? / Economics / Quantitative Easing

By: DK_Matai

When one observes the present market volatility one is minded to think of insulin as a metaphor for QE. Insulin, like Quantitative Easing (QE), in large quantities is a killer. Insulin is much more subtle and effective than arsenic or any other fatal poison. When the victim dies because of a deliberate insulin overdose it is difficult to diagnose the cause of their death in a post-mortem. With arsenic or any other fatal poison it is easy because it leaves traces.

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Economics

Friday, June 07, 2013

How the Fed Has the U.S. Economy Hooked on Monetary Cocaine” / Economics / Quantitative Easing

By: InvestmentContrarian

George Leong writes: The debates continue on whether the Federal Reserve should or should not begin to take its foot off the money-printing pedal. We will likely find out on June 14, which is when the Fed meets.

I know those seeking income from bonds want higher yields because it’s hard to survive when you are making only about one percent from a five-year U.S. government bond.

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