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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Interest-Rates

Saturday, April 29, 2023

Corporate Bonds: "The Next Shoe to Drop" / Interest-Rates / Corporate Bonds

By: EWI


"The neckline has been broken over the last few days"

A "calamity" is likely ahead for corporate bonds, says our head of global research, Murray Gunn.

Some of Murray's analysis involves the head and shoulders, a classic technical chart pattern. In case you're unfamiliar with it, here's an illustration along with an explanation from one of our past publications:

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, April 18, 2023

US Treasury Bond Market Yield Curve / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Nadeem_Walayat

That was one hell off a drop in the 2 year yield yesterday, went straight from 5% to 4%. Now US rates are on par with where they were when the S&P was trading at 4200, of course it's not as simple as that, the rate fell in response to the Fed bailout of the banking crime syndicate. Still this should be positive for stocks.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, April 12, 2023

Interest Rates Should Continue To Fall, Eventually Setting Up A Bond Market Crash / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Avi_Gilburt

If you have been reading my public articles on TLT over the last half a year, then you would know of my expectation to see the bond market rally into 2023, and rates falling into 2023.

When I first put this expectation out last year, many (even some of my own clients) thought I was simply crazy. With rates skyrocketing towards 5%, most were quite certain that we would easily eclipse that point, and move well towards 6% and even higher. And, of course, the reason most maintained that expectation was due to the Fed’s public position of continuing to raise rates.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, April 01, 2023

The Fed Knew / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: Richard_Mills

Should we leave the creation of new money in the hands of bankers or place its creation solely with our government?

“The financial system used by all national economies worldwide is actually founded upon debt. To be direct and precise, modern money is created in parallel with debt…

The creation and supply of money is now left almost entirely to banks and other lending institutions. Most people imagine that if they borrow from a bank, they are borrowing other people’s money. In fact, when banks and building societies make any loan, they create new money. Money loaned by a bank is not a loan of pre-existent money; money loaned by a bank is additional money created. The stream of money generated by people, businesses and governments constantly borrowing from banks and other lending institutions is relied upon to supply the economy as a whole. Thus the supply of money depends upon people going into debt, and the level of debt within an economy is no more than a measure of the amount of money that has been created.” Michael Rowbotham, ‘The Grip of Death’

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, February 26, 2023

Fed President Worried the Fed Risks a Repeat of the 1970s / Interest-Rates / Inflation

By: MoneyMetals

Gold and silver markets drifted lower again this week as investors braced for additional Fed rate hikes to come.

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve released the minutes from its latest policy meeting. Policymakers agreed on the need for additional increases in interest rates. They settled on just a 0.25% bump up at their last meeting. But some dissenters called for a larger 0.5% hike.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, December 30, 2022

Major Fed Myth: Debunked - Fed is Reactive in Setting Rates – Not Proactive / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: EWI

The days of near-zero interest rates are long gone -- at least for now.

As we look back on 2022, we know that it's been a year of rising interest rates, and many observers say it's all due to the Fed.

But it's a flat-out myth that the Fed determines the trend of interest rates. The market does. The Fed merely.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, December 26, 2022

US Debt Jubilee / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: Richard_Mills

A cross-the-board ‘Debt Jubilee’ might sound radical, but a reading of history shows that retiring debt can actually make a country’s economy, and its indebted citizenry, all the better for it. There is even a relatively recent example. In 2000, U2 front man Bono launched a campaign to provide debt relief to developing countries. The Jubilee 2000 coalition managed to get the G8 to agree to write off $100 billion in debts that developing countries owed to developed nations.

The term ‘Jubilee’ comes from the Old Testament. The book of Deuteronomy refers to a sabbath year during which any slaves would be freed, and everyone would be allowed to return to their family farms and live off the land. During the Jubilee, all debt obligations would be forgiven — such as land or crops that debtors had pledged to creditors.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, December 24, 2022

Why the Fed Intertest Rates Pivot will Happen Faster than People Think / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Richard_Mills

Most market participants see the Fed’s tightening policy as similar to what Paul Volcker’s Fed did in the late 1970s, when double-digit inflation necessitated a cycle of rate hikes that brought the federal funds rate to 20%. Volcker succeeded in taming inflation but the price was the 1982 recession, considered one of the longest and worst in economic history.

There is one crucial difference between 1982 and 2022, and that is the debt. According to the FRED chart below, the US debt to GDP ratio in 1982 was around 35%. Today it is more than three times higher, at 120%.

This severely limits how much and how quickly the Fed can raise interest rates, due to the amount of interest that the federal government must pay on its debt.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, November 24, 2022

Why INTEREST RATE HIKES Are INFLATIONARY! / Interest-Rates / Inflation

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Unfortunately I will have to leave this mostly for next time. But basically INTEREST RATE HIKES to bring INFLATION DOWN! Is NOT going to work because INTEREST RATES DO NOT CONTROL the RATE of INFLATION. So that which academics have built their whole careers on is BS! All I hear is Volcker raised rates that brought inflation down and so rinse and repeat, was it Interest rates that killed the Inflation of the 1970's? Are you sure your not lapping up the propaganda which is ECONOMICs perpetuated by the propaganda arms of Governments called central banks who's primary remit is to put up a smoke screen of misinformation so as to allow governments, to get away with printing money!

As I have voiced for well over a decade, Inflation is a function of governments PRINTING MONEY, of which QE is part of the equation i.e print money to monetize government debt, which despite all of the noise continues to this very day! Governments printing money on an epic scale for which the smoking gun is the Governments deficit spending, the US Federal Government is spending $1.4 trillion more than it earns in revenue that is PRINTING MONEY! For the UK it's about £120 billion,

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, November 24, 2022

Are I-Bonds Predicting a drop in Inflation ? / Interest-Rates / Inflation

By: Nadeem_Walayat

A patron commented - Interesting take on inflation: the US Treasury I-bonds (which one can invest $10k each year) will pay an annualized interest from November 1, 2022, through April 2023 of 6.89%, down from the 9.62% rate offered since May 2022. Probably an indicator that the inflation stats that are forthcoming will show we’ve peaked. https://treasurydirect.gov/savings-bonds/i-bonds/i-bonds-interest-rates/

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Interest-Rates

Monday, November 07, 2022

Powell May Be Planning a Post-Election Fed Pivot / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: MoneyMetals

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) took a dive last Friday following a middling jobs report. Could the move be the start of a bigger breakdown?

The DXY, a measure of the dollar’s relative strength versus a basket of foreign currencies, peaked in late September. Since then it has fallen into a sideways trading range, failing to make new highs despite another jumbo rate hike by the Federal Reserve last week.

Currency traders may be looking ahead – specifically to the likelihood of a U.S. economic downturn in 2023. The potential of another housing-led Great Financial Crisis also looms.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, November 06, 2022

The 78 Year Interest Rate Cycle - Why Investors in U.S. Treasuries Face Major Risk / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: EWI

Rising rates will be "disastrous" for governments, other debtors and creditors

The market for U.S. Treasuries is the biggest bond market in the world, and it appears that potentially big trouble may be afoot.

Earlier this month, none other than the U.S. Treasury Secretary herself (Janet Yellen) acknowledged ...

... "a loss of adequate liquidity in the [U.S. government debt] market."

Then, in a statement last week, Bank of America strategists expressed concerns about ...

... "large scale forced selling [of U.S. Treasuries]."

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, November 03, 2022

Fed Hawkish Interest Rate Pivot / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Michael_Pento

This latest bear-market bounce was predicated on good seasonality, the hopes for a typical mid-term election boost, and the rumors of a Fed pivot. Wall Street always finds a narrative for rallies in a bear market. But the negative economic and liquidity cycles remain unchanged: The Fed is hiking rates into a recession. Powell may have done his last 75bp rate hike on November 2nd. But another 50bp hike is likely coming in December, and then the regular 25bp variety is coming in February. Meanwhile, $95 billion per month of Quantitative Tightening is rapidly destroying the money supply.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, November 02, 2022

SMASHED Bond Markets Brewing Opportunity / Interest-Rates / International Bond Market

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The consensus script is that when stocks fall bonds go up, instead 2022 saw that consensus view blown apart as the below chart illustrates. In fact bonds have NEVER under performed stocks during a downturn, not even during the raging inflation of the 1970's!

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Interest-Rates

Friday, October 28, 2022

FED Balance Sheet QE4Ever / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Not to forget the inflation mega-trend courtesy of rampant central bank money printing to monetize government debt coupled with the fake inflation indices where up until recently the Fed had succeeded in hoodwinking the masses that US inflation was just 1%. Instead at that time I warned it was more like 6%! Now it's more like 14%. Anyway the money printing binge now totals $8.8 trillion, up from $4 trillion at the start of 2020 and down from a a peak of $9.62 trillion in the so called Taper. We saw how the taper of 2019 went which at the time I warned would eventually resolve in the Fed Balance sheet DOUBLING. of course I was not expecting it to happen the very NEXT YEAR in 2020!

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, October 26, 2022

TIPS BONDS FAKE INFLATION PROTECTION! / Interest-Rates / Inflation

By: Nadeem_Walayat

How to protect one self form INFLATION! Well what the investment industry sold to their clients were Inflation Protected Bond funds! The sales pitch went that when Inflation soars and regular bonds fall don't worry you are protected so given that inflation has taken off like a rocket have these bond funds delivered on their sales pitch?

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, October 26, 2022

When Will the Fed Throw in the Towel on Rate Hikes? / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: MoneyMetals

The Federal Reserve finally stopped referring to inflation as “transitory” earlier this year and got serious about trying to control the painful rise in prices it has caused. Officials have jacked the Fed funds rate up by 3% since March.

Thus far they have been willing to inflict pain upon financial markets. The S&P 500 lost roughly 20% of its value since the end of March.

The aggressive tightening has also pushed the Federal Reserve note “dollar” higher relative to other major currencies.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, October 23, 2022

US interest Rates and Inflation / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Nadeem_Walayat

US market interest rates LEAD the inflation rate. even more so than that which the below graph implies as there is a couple of weeks delay in release of inflation data. And then there is the smoke and mirrors inflation game that the Fed plays i.e. core inflation vs CPI, core is CPI less food and energy because obviously people can survive without food and energy so are excluded so that the Fed gets a more manageable inflation number so as to make their job easier than if they had to cope with a truer inflation rate.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, September 26, 2022

Is Powell Bent on Wrecking the US Economy? / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: MoneyMetals

Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell has taken a turn to the dark side.

After years of pleasing everyone on Wall Street and in Washington, D.C. with ultra-loose monetary policy, Powell has, for now, decided to recast himself as the villain. He now seems intent on crashing markets, killing jobs, and driving the economy into a deep recession in the name of fighting the inflation he helped unleash.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, August 20, 2022

Mixed Messaging from the Fed Causing Confusion in Markets / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: MoneyMetals

Precious metals markets are giving up ground this week as investors react to the latest musings from the Federal Reserve.

On Wednesday, the Fed released the minutes from its latest policy meeting. Officials acknowledged some of the warning signs of a weakening economy. That suggests they are likely to scale back future rate increases rather than implement additional 75 basis-point hikes.

But policymakers also admitted that inflation is still running uncomfortably high and seem poised to continue tightening to some extent.

Mixed messaging from the Fed caused confusion among investors. Some interpreted the Fed's comments as hawkish while others saw them as more dovish than expected. Perhaps central bankers themselves are confused and don't really know what they should be doing next.

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