Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Wednesday, September 11, 2013
How This Week’s Fed Meeting Could Impact Your Portfolio / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: InvestmentContrarian
Sasha Cekerevac writes: All eyes are on this week’s important Federal Reserve meeting, in which many analysts expect that the Federal Reserve will decide to begin to lower its $85.0-billion-per-month asset purchase program.
But things might not be that easy, since the report on job creation released last Friday is showing signs of deceleration.
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Sunday, September 08, 2013
David Stockman on his Book and the Bailouts / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis Bailouts
By: MISES
Mises Institute: In the book, you oppose Bernanke’s view of the Great Depression, which you point out relies heavily on the views of Milton Friedman.
David Stockman: Bernanke has cultivated this idea that he is a brilliant scholar of The Great Depression, but that’s not true at all. What Bernanke did was basically copy Milton Friedman’s misguided and very damaging theory that the Federal Reserve didn’t expand its balance sheet fast enough by massive open market purchases of government debt during the Great Depression. Bernanke therefore claimed that monetary stringency deepened and lengthened the depression, but in fact interest rates plummeted during the crucial 1930-1933 period: credit contracted due to genuine and widespread insolvencies in the agricultural districts and industrial boom towns, causing bank deposits to shrink as a passive consequence. So Bernanke had cause and effect upside down — a historical error that he replicated with reckless abandon in response to the bursting of the housing and credit bubble in 2008.
Sunday, September 08, 2013
The Fed Has Wasted Trillions and the US Will Default / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: Graham_Summers
The facts are now becoming abundantly clear, that the forecast we’ve maintained for well over two years has been validated: the US is in a DE-pression and both Washington and the Federal Reserve have wasted trillions of Dollars.
The reality is that what’s happening in the US today is not a cyclical recession, but a one in 100 year, secular economic shift.
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Saturday, September 07, 2013
PIMCO's Gross: Fed Will Still Taper After Jobs Report / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing
By: Bloomberg
PIMCO's Bill Gross appeared on "Bloomberg Surveillance" today, telling host Tom Keene: "I think Bernanke and company are committed to a taper...It will be taper lite as opposed to a strong tapering." Transcript below.
Gross on today's jobs report being the new normal:
"Yes, it sure was. And I guess the revision of last month was the biggest shocker. And the fall, of course, as you mentioned in terms of the participation rate from 63.4 to 63.2. You know, the unemployment rate is down, for those that focus on the unemployment rate, it is 7.3 percent. They would simply suggest we are closer to tapering and closer to a fed funds increase at some point. But I would suggest otherwise, that it is really a weaker economy as evidenced by today's report."
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Tuesday, September 03, 2013
Bond Markets Offer No Protection From Stock Market Risk / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: EWI
Bond yields spike to a 2-year high
Two months ago, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said he was puzzled by the upward surge in Treasury yields. And bond yields are even higher now, reaching a two-year high on August 15.
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Thursday, August 29, 2013
Higher Interest Rates - Bond Vigilantes Hold Upper Hand Over Central Banks / Interest-Rates / International Bond Market
By: Gary_Dorsch
Whenever former Fed chief Alan Greenspan was praised for delivering a clear message on US- monetary policy, he used to reply, "I guess I should warn you. If I turn out to be particularly clear, you've probably misunderstood what I've said." On June 7th, Greenspan set off the alarm bells on Wall Street by telling viewers of CNBC that the time had arrived for the Fed to begin tapering its $85-billion a month bond buying binge, even if the US-economy isn't ready for it. "The sooner we come to grips with this excessive level of assets on the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve, - that everybody agrees is excessive, - the better," he said in a "Squawk Box" interview. "There is a general presumption that we can wait indefinitely and make judgments on when we're going to move. I'm not sure the market will allow us to do that."
Wednesday, August 28, 2013
The Global QE Exit Crisis, Guidance Schmidance / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing
By: John_Mauldin
In last week's Outside the Box, which included a paper from the San Francisco Federal Reserve on the effectiveness of quantitative easing, I wrote, "What [authors] Cúrdia and Ferrero are really saying is that the latest round of QE, massive as it has been, has not had all that much effect on the economy, and that other factors should be taken into account. I'm sure this thesis is somewhat controversial, and I look forward to seeing what QE proponents like David Zervos over at Jefferies have to say about it."
Monday, August 26, 2013
Will the Last Person to Exit the Treasury Market Please Turn Out the Lights / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Michael_Pento
Wall Street and Washington love to spread fables that facilitate feelings of bliss among the investing public. For example, recall in 2005 when they inculcated to consumers the notion that home prices have never, and will never, fall on a national basis. We all know how that story turned out. Along with their belief that real estate prices couldn't fall, is one of their favorite conciliatory mantras that still exists today. Namely, that foreign investors have no choice but to perpetually support the U.S. debt market at any price and at any yield.
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Sunday, August 25, 2013
The Truth about the Real Size of the US National Debt / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: Pravda
Everyone got used to the largest officially announced U.S. national debt of 16 trillion dollars. Moreover, despite the dire predictions, the global economy seems to be more or less stable, and recently liberal media have been happily reporting GDP growth in the United States and the European Union. However, it is not all that great.
Saturday, August 24, 2013
U.S. Treasury Bonds Are Oversold / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Sy_Harding
Has there ever been an asset class bombarded by such intense negativity in such a short period of time? Fed Chairman Bernanke’s warning in May that the Fed would soon begin to ‘taper’ its QE bond-buying stimulus program brought ‘The End of Bonds’ headlines out in force. And bond investors responded.
Friday, August 23, 2013
Shorting U.S. Treasury Bonds, Your No1 Choice for Big Gains / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Money_Morning
Keith Fitz-Gerald writes: As I'm writing this, halfway through Wednesday's session, stocks are in danger of closing in the red for a fifth straight day. And this is all you'll hear about today.
Yet bonds are telling you the real story.
In fact, at this point, they are the next best thing to the Holy Grail if you've got the right perspective and understand what's happening.
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Friday, August 23, 2013
Major Bond Market Top, Dangerous Myths About Rising Yields / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: EWI
Myth 1 of 3: Bond Yields Are Rising Due to the Fed's Insinuation at Tapering
Editor's note: The following article is the first in a series of three, reprinted with permission from market-leading financial forecasting firm Elliott Wave International. To read the full three-part report now, follow this link and download it for free
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Wednesday, August 21, 2013
Dangerous Myths About Rising U.S. Treasury Bond Yields / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: EWI
Myth 1 of 3: Bond Yields Are Rising Due to the Fed's Insinuation at Tapering
Editor's note: The following article is the first in a series of three, reprinted with permission from market-leading financial forecasting firm Elliott Wave International. To read the full three-part report now, follow this link and download it for free
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Wednesday, August 21, 2013
What Has QE Actually Accomplished? / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing
By: John_Mauldin
The market is obsessed with “tapering.” The assumption is that all the “juice” in the economy is somehow the product of the Federal Reserve's actions. The headline on the front page of the Wall Street Journal today reads “Fear of Fed Retreat Roils India.” I suppose one has to come up with some kind of reason to explain the convergence of emerging equity markets and those of the US. My friend Dan Greenhaus over at BTIG sent out this ugly graph (if you are an emerging-market investor) this morning:
Tuesday, August 20, 2013
QE Party is Ending, Rising Interest Rates Means the Fed Could Go Bankrupt / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Graham_Summers
The QE party is ending. And the following hangover is going to be brutal.
Since 2007 the Central Bankers of the world have operated under the belief that they can hold the financial system together by engaging in round after round of Quantitative Easing (QE) without losing control of the bond markets/ interest rates.
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Tuesday, August 20, 2013
Rising Treasury Yields, Tight Money Has Already Started / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Clif_Droke
Aside from the fact that the 10-Year Treasury Yield Index (TNX) is rising, one reason for the recent equity market sell-off is the uncertainty generated by the Fed's latest announcement concerning the future of QE3.
At its latest press conference, Fed Chairman Bernanke indicated the central bank could start winding down its $85 billion/month asset purchase program in September. This has understandably caused a certain amount of consternation on Wall Street, especially given the feeling among many traders that QE has been largely responsible for the stock market's rebound.
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Tuesday, August 20, 2013
Fed QE Taper Talk, Act 2 / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing
By: Axel_Merk
While the Fed’s taper talk has been tapered and then un-tapered, the market may now be tapering the Fed rather than vice versa. Let’s assess Act 2 of the taper talk and the implications for the markets, including the dollar and gold.
Monday, August 19, 2013
The Fed Can’t Afford to Taper QE / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing
By: John_Handbury
The Federal Reserve Bank’s balance sheet looked pretty healthy in May this year. On the asset side of the balance sheet is the large amount of paper that the Fed has bought to supposedly stimulate the economy. This consists mostly of treasury bonds and notes and mortgage-back securities of a value approaching $3 trillion.
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Friday, August 16, 2013
Is the U.S. 30 year Treasury Bond Market Top Finally In? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: WavePatternTraders
After hitting my long awaited target, the reversal we have seen over the past 12 months strongly suggests a multi-decade top is now in for bonds.
Wednesday, August 14, 2013
U.S. Debt Nears a Tipping Point, Dire Economic Consequences / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: Money_Morning
Garrett Baldwin writes: As U.S. debt as a percentage of GDP hovers at levels not seen since World War II, concerns are growing that the American economy is susceptible to a debt crisis in the near future.
Here's why people are worried: If interest rates return to normal levels of around 5% as the U.S debt approaches $20 trillion, then servicing that debt each year will cost taxpayers $1 trillion.
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