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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Interest-Rates

Sunday, May 28, 2017

Subprime 2.0: Lending a $1 Trillion to People With No Proof of Job or Income / Interest-Rates / Financial Crisis 2017

By: Graham_Summers

SubPrime 2.0 is proving far worse than even we suspected.

If you’ve not been following this story, our view is that the auto-loan industry is Subprime 2.0: the riskiest, worst area in a massive debt bubble, much as subprime mortgage lending was the riskiest worst part of the housing bubble from 2003 to 2008.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, May 25, 2017

The Yield Curve Is the Best Recession Indicator / Interest-Rates / Recession 2018

By: John_Mauldin

By Shannara Johnson : Every investor wishes he had a crystal ball. But there’s one thing, says David Rosenberg, chief economist at Gluskin Sheff, that has predicted imminent recessions without fail.

Speaking at the Strategic Investment Conference in Orlando, Florida, Rosenberg pointed out that since 1950, there have been 13 cycles where the Federal Reserve tightened interest rates… and 10 of them ended in recession.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, May 16, 2017

German - US Bond Market Spreads and Sentiment / Interest-Rates / Germany

By: Ashraf_Laidi

Putting aside hard and soft data, yield differentials continue to command FX markets as the German-US 10 year yield spread breaks above its 200-day MA for the 1st time since August to hit -1.90%. The story, however, is not only in the break of the average, but also in the fact that the formation of the spread consists of higher lows and higher highs since the December bottom, which is the same formation for EURUSD, gold and most "anti-USD" instruments.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, May 16, 2017

Ransomware Attack, Debt - You’d Think We’d Be A Little More Worried… / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis 2017

By: John_Rubino

By now everyone with an Internet connection is aware of the “ransomware” attack that shut down hundreds of thousands of computers over the weekend.

The fact that the onslaught is just beginning — as the military-grade hacking tools developed by the NSA and recently leaked are weaponized by hackers and released into the wild — should, you’d think, be worrisome.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, May 15, 2017

Bernanke’s Confetti Courage / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: Michael_Pento

Former Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s book titled “The Courage to Act” is now available in paperback. This isn’t a surprise because, after all, his proclivity to print paper encompasses the totality of what his courage to act was all about. The errors in logic made in his book are too numerous to tackle in this commentary; so I’ll just debunk a few of the worst.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, May 15, 2017

The Fed’s Massive Debt Bubble in Picture Form / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: Graham_Summers

As we’ve been outlining over the last few weeks, the auto-loan industry is increasingly looking like Subprime 2.0: the needle that will pop the credit bubble.

Since 2009, roughly 1/3 of all new auto-loans have been subprime. That in of itself is bad, but we are now discovering that the industry in general has a problem with fraud (shades of the Housing Bubble) as well.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, May 11, 2017

What’s the Fed Factor in US Treasury Bond Yields? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Harry_Dent

I hate taxes.

I don’t begrudge paying for a functioning government, it’s the dysfunctional favoritism that ticks me off.

This amorphous blob in Washington sucks dollars out of my wallet and then tells me not to worry about how it’s spent, even as I watch the government hand my dollars out like candy.

I’m still beside myself about General Motors.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, May 09, 2017

America Needs a Debt Cut Before a Tax Cut / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: Michael_Pento

President Donald Trump has finally unveiled his broad blueprint for tax reform. Well, at least let’s call it a sketchy outline of one. It would take the top income tax rate for small businesses from 35% to 15%. Theoretically, a business that makes $500k in taxable income, which had been paying roughly $175k in Federal taxes, would then pay closer to $75k. This means our business in this example, which saved 100k in Federal taxes, would have to grow its taxable income to $1,166.666, or by 133% to provide the government with revenue neutrality.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, May 04, 2017

Debt is Financial Life – Nonsense! / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis 2017

By: DeviantInvestor

Examine the picture below. The global economy thrives on debt and credit. We purchase essential products using debt/credit. The U.S. dollar bill is a debt of the Federal Reserve. All debt based assets have counter-party risk.

The St. Louis Federal Reserve publishes data on “Total Debt Securities” in $ millions. Note the rapid rise since 1971 after President Nixon encouraged rapid devaluation of the dollar.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, April 29, 2017

Recall This US Bond Trader Chart? Here's What Happened / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: EWI

Our three recent Treasury Bond charts combine to show you trader sentiment, price action and important near-term turns and trends.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, April 27, 2017

Are UK Consumers Taking Too Much Debt? / Interest-Rates / UK Debt

By: Nicholas_Kitonyi

The UK lending market has benefited from the reduced lending rates after the interest rate was reduced to an historical low. The UK base interest rate was cut in half in August last year to 0.25% in a bid to stimulate economic growth and it has remained at this level for the last eight months. This affected the UK Prime Lending Rate, which fell to 1.25% from about 1.55% in July and has since remained fixed at this level.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, April 25, 2017

US Treasury Bond Yields / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Ed_Carlson

TNX – the yield on the 10yr US Treasury note -  gained 0.22% last week closing at 22.37 but 14-day RSI remains below its own 20-dma; bearish. The break of support at 23.35 (now resistance) has opened a door for a return to 20.00.

The monthly chart below shows how the long-term trend line has turned back the rally in TNX on numerous occasions. However, as the monthly Coppock Curve failed to confirm the 2012 low during the 2016 test of that low we’ve probably seen the low of the +30yr decline in interest rates.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, April 19, 2017

The Fed Must Be Reading Our Work / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: Rodney_Johnson

It’s too much of a coincidence. Fed officials must be reading our work.

OK, they don’t really have to be… but if they don’t, they should.

It’s not that we deserve credit for what comes next at the Fed, but I was glad to read the details last week in the nitty-gritty of the Fed’s minutes of its March meeting. (You would’ve had to have read it there; Fed chair Janet Yellen didn’t talk about it at all in her post-meeting press conference.)
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Interest-Rates

Monday, April 17, 2017

Fed Will Cause a 2008 Redux / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Michael_Pento

Truth is a rare commodity on Wall Street. You have to sift through tons of dirt to find the golden ore. For example, main stream analysis of the Fed's current monetary policy claims that it will be able to normalize interest rates with impunity. That assertion could not be further from the truth.

The fact is the Fed has been tightening monetary policy since December of 2013, when it began to taper the asset purchase program known as Quantitative Easing. This is because the flow of bond purchases is much more important than the stock of assets held on the Fed's balance sheet. The Fed Chairman at the time, Ben Bernanke, started to reduce the amount of bond purchases by $10 billion per month; taking the amount of QE from $85 billion, to 0 by the end of October 2014.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, April 11, 2017

Who’s Liking the US Interest Rate Hike Most? / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Nicholas_Kitonyi

As investors prepare for what looks like a potentially second rate hike within the first half of 2017, there are those who are still questioning the overall impact of increased interest rates on the economy.

By trade, stock market investors gain more when interest rates are higher. This is simply because capital risk assets will reflect the interest rate hike. However, as per the most recent rate hike, things seem to be a little different.

The stock market rallied from late January when a rate hike during the first quarter of the calendar year became more feasible with every Federal Reserve minutes pointing towards an increment.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, April 05, 2017

US Debt Ceiling Shutdown: What Would Happen if the Government Shut Down For Good? / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: Jeff_Berwick

It’s that time of year again where the US government acts like it will “shut down” and argues about nonsensical things to try to make people believe they are somehow necessary.

In 2015, Congress suspended the ceiling, which let the government borrow as much as it wanted through March 15, 2017. On that date, the total national debt was $19.846 trillion, and the government can't exceed that limit without approval from Congress.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, April 04, 2017

All Eyes on US Bond Market Yields / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Mike_Paulenoff

After the first day of trading of April, a relatively uneventful one for the equity markets in general, the most consequential market for me is 10-year yield!

Yield continues to exhibit weakness, and is bearing down on a critical 5-month support level at 2.30%, which if violated and sustained, will trigger downside continuation signals that project to 2.10% optimally, and possibly to 2.00% prior to the next upmove (in yield).

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, March 23, 2017

Trading with Elliott Waves Doesn't Have to Be Complicated / Interest-Rates / Elliott Wave Theory

By: EWI

Start simple, with the basic 5 "core" Elliott wave chart patterns

Jeffrey Kennedy, a recognized expert in Elliott wave analysis and forecasting, explains why the Wave Principle is such a reliable and powerful way to forecast the financial markets.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, March 23, 2017

Low Interest Rates Helping Australia Transition from the Mining Boom / Interest-Rates / Austrailia

By: Nicholas_Kitonyi

Australia’s transition from its reliance on mining exports to other sectors appears to be gathering pace as more businesses continue to take advantage of the low interest rates.

The Reserve Bank of Australia reduced the base interest rate, popularly referred to as the cash rate, twice last year from 2% to 1.75% and again to 1.5%. The cash rate remains fixed at 1.5%, which when compared to many developed countries is still one of the highest.
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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, March 22, 2017

MSM Bond Market Full Nonsense Mode as ‘Trump Trades’ Unwind on Schedule / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Gary_Tanashian

I’ve been watching the herds to try to determine just when the interest rate topic among the best and brightest (as chosen by the media) would start to pivot from ‘rising rates!’ hysterics that have been locked and loaded in the public psyche since the US election to a sort of ‘rut roh, maybe we got played again… ‘ realization that Rome – and a Great America – are not built in a day.

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