Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Tuesday, March 11, 2008
Plan to Save the US Financial System From Collapse / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2008
By: John_Mauldin
Caroline Baum is one of my favorite financial columnists, who writes with a voice of calm reason. She writes for Bloomberg, and I encourage you to read her regularly. This week she touches on the problems in the markets and the continuing calls for government intervention.
Things are coming loose in an ever-widening array of markets in the financial world. No one is suggesting that the subprime problems will be contained, as almost every authority figure did last summer. We now know that everything is seemingly connected, a theme that I have written about for years.
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Tuesday, March 11, 2008
Stock Markets To Follow Housing and Unemployment Sharply Lower / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: Ty_Andros
BEWARE: The Ides of March, aka FIRESTORM! Volatility is opportunity and we are seeing it in spades. The markets are jumping and thus creating juicy opportunities for the prepared investor. Currencies, interest rates, stocks and commodities are roaring all over the place. The moves are big but in general quite ORDERLY. This is set to continue as far as the eye can see. It also provides you with a measuring stick to how well you and your investment advisors have done in preparing to capture these opportunities and not be harmed by them. Just look at your portfolio bottom line and that will tell you whether you and your advisors get an A for excellent, something less or even an F for failure. Take note!
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Monday, March 10, 2008
UltraShort S&P Climbs to New Recovery High / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Paulenoff
Although the ProShares UltraShort Inverted SPY ETF (AMEX: SDS) has climbed to a new recovery high at 70.52 today, my work continues to warn me that unless the buyers propel the price structure into a vertical thrust right from here, the likelihood is that the SDS will reverse from the channel resistance line and make another attempt to swoon towards the 68.00 support area, which is why I don't want to be long the SDS "up here."Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, March 10, 2008
Stock Market Pricing in a Recession / Stock-Markets / Recession
By: Paul_J_Nolte
Investors are beginning to price into the markets a recession. The non-farm payroll figures out last Friday were worse than the street expected, showing a loss in jobs that for many, solidified a recessionary outlook. Calls for more rate relief from the Fed pushed the expectations for not just a half percent cut in rates later this month, but a strong likelihood of three quarters, if not a full percent cut. While a nice thing to do to get the economy going, the impact of any rate cut this month will not likely be felt until early 2009 due to the lag effect of changes in monetary policy. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, March 10, 2008
Credit Crunch of 2007 Turning Into Credit Collapse of 2008 / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Money_and_Markets
The Credit Collapse of 2008 has begun. The place is every home, business and government. The time is now.
The credit collapse is not just an ordinary recession that repeats itself with each new business cycle of the 21st century. Nor is it the Great Depression returning to haunt us from the depths of the 1930s.
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Monday, March 10, 2008
Stock Market Hit by "V" for Vendetta Long-term Pattern / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Joseph_Russo
V for Vendetta is a 2006 film set in a dystopian future United Kingdom, where “V”, a mysterious anarchist wearing a Guy Fawkes costume, works to bring down an oppressive fascist government, profoundly affecting the people he encounters.
The following are some notable quotes from the film:
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Monday, March 10, 2008
Stock Market Expected to Trend Lower Into April 08 / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend - Election years that fall in the 8th year of the Decennial pattern call for consolidation in the early part of the year followed by a strong finish. But the 6-yr cycle which is scheduled to bottom in late Summer/early Fall could also play a restraining role, followed by an eventual bull market top in 2009-2010.
SPX: Intermediate trend - an extended intermediate-term consolidation is in process with a potential low in mid-April.
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Sunday, March 09, 2008
Financial Markets Vulnerable Due to Credit and Energy Crisis / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Brian_Bloom
Society at a crossroads - On February 12th 2008, this analyst took a decision that prevarication was no longer an option. A judgement call was needed and the judgement call was made, as follows: “Despite many conflicting signals from many different quarters, this analyst believes we have entered a Primary Bear Market for Industrial Equities.”. On that day the Dow Jones Industrial Index stood at 12,240.01.
Of course, it was to be expected that the authorities would fight the Bear with everything at their disposal, but the core issue seemed to be that the state of mind of the investing public had turned negative.
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Sunday, March 09, 2008
Stock Market Technically Damaged: Is a Crash & Economic Depression Coming? / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: Robert_McHugh_PhD
This week saw a new all-time low in the Dollar, new all-time highs in Gold and Oil, but the damage continues in stocks. There was a lot of technical damage done to stock averages Friday. We got confirmation of 18 month, very Bearish Head & Shoulders tops patterns in several indices, as prices completed their right shoulders and fell decisively below necklines. These patterns are huge, and the downside targets are 20 percent below where we stand now in several averages. In other words, these patterns are calling for a stock market crash. These patterns are saying that the Bear Market is nowhere near over . Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, March 08, 2008
Stocks Primary Bear Market- Dow Industrials vs Transports / Stock-Markets / Dow Theory
By: Tim_Wood
From a Dow theory perspective, the primary bearish trend confirmation that occurred on November 21, 2007 remains intact. According to Dow theory, it's the close that counts and up until March 7, 2008, the averages have both been operating within the boundaries of the previous two secondary high and low points. According to Dow theory such movement is of no forecasting value. In other words, once the trend is authoritatively established it must be considered to be intact until it is reversed and price movement between two secondary high and low points does not reverse the trend. Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, March 08, 2008
Stock Market Downtrend to Continue- No Sign of a Bottom / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Burk
The good news is: When this decline is over the market will be setup for an extend rally.
Short Term
After a bottom has been reached downside volume diminishes quickly.
Saturday, March 08, 2008
Stock Markets Set to Plunge to Depths Not Seen Since the 1990's / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: Alex_Wallenwein
Super-Dangerous Dow-Gold Divergence - Gold's been going up and the Dow has been dropping for months, now. If this persists for more than maybe two more months, it can spell utter doom for global equities markets - and will cause a huge explosion in precious metals prices and shares. Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, March 08, 2008
US Home Owners Debts Exceed Equity / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
The pace of expansion of all forms of debt is decelerating in the fourth quarter of 2007. Domestic non-financial debt rose 8% as a whole over 2007, .75% lower than in 2006. That may not seem like a slowdown, but consumers are changing course at the fastest pace, slowing from a pace of 6.75% annualized growth of debt in the third quarter to 5.5% in the fourth quarter. For the year, household debt rose at 6.75% compared to 10.25% in 2006. State and local government debt expanded at a rate of 9.75% for the entire year, while the Federal Government claims to have expanded its debt burden by 5%. I don't believe that last figure, since much of the Federal Government spending is “off the books.” Read the report and weep. We're all a bunch of debt junkies. Kicking the habit will be very hard. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, March 07, 2008
Market Forecasts- US Dollar, Euro, Yen, Gold, Commodities / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Christopher_Laird
So much is happening with the USD and the critical US credit markets, as well as with gold and commodities. Now that the USD broke below the key 73 level on the USDX (US dollar index basket of currencies, heavily Euro weighted) many key issues come to the fore for gold and commodities.
Euro, commodities
First, the EU is still rather firm on interest rates, but they have a lot of pressure as the Euro breaks over 1.50. The ECB and EU have previously made comments that they could intervene in currency markets if the Euro breaks above 1.50 . Any indication that can happen will cause a significant USD turnaround. That would then apply to gold and oil as well, as these have risen so much recently and are due for profit taking (or that pressure is there). So, the Euro situation needs to be closely tracked, as any significant change in policy can cause oil, gold, and commodity profit taking.
Friday, March 07, 2008
Ominous S&P 500 Stock Market Chart- Warning of Oct 2002 Target / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: Mike_Paulenoff
The very big picture of the S&P 500 chart -- (AMEX: SPY) for traders of the ETF -- shows the making of a giant double-top pattern that could be on the verge of downside acceleration that breaks the January low at 1270 and begins to fulfill its "natural potential" on the way towards a revisit of the 2002 low. Yes, that is an extreme forecast, but that is the look that this pattern exhibits. No, it will not happen in a straight line, and more than likely any decline in the SPX that violates the January 2008 low at 1270 will find support at the 50% support area of the entire 2002-2007 bull move, which is at 1174.00. Be that as it may, this is a very ominous longer-term chart picture. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, March 07, 2008
Stock Market Forecast and Outlook for March 2008 / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Hans_Wagner
If you want to beat the market, you need to invest with the trend. In looking at the trend, I believe it is best to begin with the big picture in mind and then work our way down to weekly and then daily views of the charts. You will notice that the chart and the value of the indicators change as we move from a monthly to a weekly and then a daily chart. This is a normal part of the technical analysis.
Let's start with the long term view of the S&P 500. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) seems to be a good indicator of the cyclical bull and bear markets. In addition, the 78 week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) acts as support in a bull market and resistance in a bear market.
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Thursday, March 06, 2008
Capital and Debt Markets Crisis- Investors Four Critical Questions / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Doug_Wakefield
Does tracking the major US equity markets give us a full grasp of the amount of risks in our capital markets? Absolutely not. Consider this: Over the last 14 months, from the end of 2006 to the last day of February of 2008, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the NASDAQ 100 are only down 1.58% and .63%, respectively. But, if we look at some of the major SECTORS of our economy, we get a different picture. For example, over the same timeframe, the retail index ($RLX) is down 22.85%, the housing index ($HGX) is down 42.55%, the brokerage index ($XBD) is down 24.90%, and the banking index ($BKX) is down 29.91%, while the healthcare index ($HCX) is only down 2.32%. So, four major areas of our economy are down substantially, and neither the Dow nor the NASDAQ 100 has reflected this reality.
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Thursday, March 06, 2008
Credit Crisis Mega Opportunities as Everything is Repriced to True Values / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Ty_Andros
I can't tell you how wonderful it is to be alive in today's markets. This past week was one of great importance as the markets really signaled enormous new realities which now have to be priced in over the coming years. Volatility is opportunity and it is abundant . What makes it even juicier for the prepared investor is that it is now apparent on WEEKLY and MONTHLY charts, signaling the enormous timeframes in which we are anticipating BIG MOVES! We're only in the second inning in a 9-inning ballgame. Re-pricing of everything to its TRUE VALUE is underway and creating mega opportunities for prepared investors. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, March 05, 2008
Counter Trend Rally in Stock Market S&P 500 Index / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Paulenoff
The plot thickens. In this morning's posting we discussed the likelihood of upside follow-through from yesterday's low at 1307.00 in the S&P 500 e-Mini contract, but that the index would have to hurdle and sustain above 1348.50 to trigger upside acceleration towards the op of the Feb-Mar range. As it turned ou, the e-SPH peaked so far at 1345.00 prior to its mid-session AMBAC swoon. More vital, however, is that the pattern carved out from 1307 to 1345 does NOT exhibit particularly bullish form.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, March 04, 2008
Stocks on the Brink of a Bear Market / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
At the end of January, I wrote the article entitled, A Probable Path Revealed . In that article, I suggested that the January23 rd low was just the ending of wave (i) of C. After a brief rally, I expected waves (iii), (iv) and (v) to proceed. Well, the rally wasn't brief. But it appears that wave (ii) is now complete. Rather that using Elliott Wave, I have been keeping a chart of the DJIA with the head-and-shoulders neckline (red), the trendline of the advance from March 2003 and the Fibonacci retracements. They tell a compelling story at a glance.Read full article... Read full article...