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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Stock-Markets

Wednesday, December 27, 2006

Emerging Markets outlook for 2007 - India, China, Russia, Eastern Europe and Brazil / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Emerging markets have by and large boomed during 2007. With indices such as India's Sensex up more than 50% on the year, though the year ends on a cautionary note ,given the recent actions by Thailand's regime that sent their stock market reeling. So even though the long-term fundamentals are still strong for India, China, Russia, Brazil etc, the first half of 2007 could become a corrective period for the emerging markets, as they end the year on high valuations and growth expectations. Many investors have only recently started to enter these markets, and they may be disappointed by performances during the first half of 2007. The key here is to invest for the long-term growth so well beyond 2007.

Emerging Markets forecast for 2007 - India, China, Russia, Eastern Europe and Brazil

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, December 27, 2006

Emerging Markets - Chinese Red-chips Soar into Orbit, is Gold Next ? / Stock-Markets / Analysis & Strategy

By: Gary_Dorsch

2006 was a year of extreme volatility in the global money markets. Once again, the biggest stock market winners were the emerging giants of Brazil, China, India, and Russia, the so-called BRIC countries. Together, the BRIC account for 50% of the world's population, yet their rapidly growing economies account for only 13% of global economic output. The four emerging markets have been star performers, while European, Japanese and the US markets lag behind their blazing trail.
 
The global economy produced around $36.7 trillion in goods and services in 2006, with emerging economies expanding an average 7% this year, largely as a result of high commodity prices, and booming demand in China and India, the World Bank said. The pace of expansion in emerging economies could remain above 7% in 2007, lead by 9.5% growth in China, 8.5% growth in India, and exceeding the 2.6% average growth rate of high-income countries in Europe, Japan, and the US.
 
 Emerging Markets - Chinese Red-chips Soar into Orbit, is Gold Next ?
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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, December 26, 2006

Dow Jones Stock Market forecast for 2007 / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Dow Jones forecast for 2007 - If you have followed my last article on the Dow Jones (17th December 06), you will be aware that I am expecting a sharp drop in the stock markets starting January 2007. As the year draws to an end, I am able to further clarify the scenario that the Dow Jones is expected to play out during 2007.

The rally to new highs in the Dow jones and new five year highs in other indices has not been followed by confirmation in the Dow Transports, whilst the rallies have also been accompanied by record low VIX readings, suggesting investor complacency.

Now in the run upto the new year, the media seems to be filling up with stories of how well the stock markets are expected to perform during 2007. Supporting evidence such as soft landing of the US economy, and that 2007 is expected to be the strongest in the presidential cycle. Unfortunately as my article of 22nd October pointed out, the Dow Jones has decided to make ADJUSTMENTS to the presidential cycle, which has significantly negated its overall effect in terms of trend. We basically have enjoyed much of the expected PLUS that's expected during 2007 already in the latter part of 2006 !, So this implies a much weaker 2007.

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, December 23, 2006

A lesson from History Thailand's stock and currency market compared with 1997 / Stock-Markets / Analysis & Strategy

By: Money_and_Markets

Nine years, five months, and twenty days ago, Thailand revalued its currency, the baht. That one small move ultimately brought down stock markets, currencies, and economies throughout Southeast Asia and the world.

Now, Thailand is in the news again — implementing capital controls on international investors. Those rules would lock up a chunk of foreign investors' funds for a year in an attempt to curb currency speculation. But the circumstances of this new situation couldn't be more different from those of 1997. Instead of being provoked by a strong U.S. currency, Thailand is reacting to a weak dollar. That speaks volumes about just how far the once-mighty greenback has fallen.

Today, I want to look back at the fateful days of the 1997 Asian contagion ... compare it to the current situation ... and, most importantly, explain what it means for your investments.

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, December 23, 2006

Weekly Stock Market Technical Analysis Report / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Mike_Burk

The good news is that the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and S&P 100 (OEX) closed at all time highs last Tuesday.

Short Term
During an up market the major indices seldom move downward for more than 3 consecutive days.

The chart below shows the S&P 500 (SPX) in red and an indicator showing the percentage of the last 3 trading days that have been up. The indicator reaches the top of the screen when there have been 3 consecutive up days and it reaches the bottom of the screen when their have been 3 consecutive down days. The chart covers the past 6 months and has vertical dashed lines drawn on the 1st trading day of each month. The SPX was down the last 3 trading days of last week. The last time that happened was in early November which, like last week, was also a seasonally strong period.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, December 20, 2006

Three Markets Trumping the Dow Jones , China, Brazil and Austrailia ! / Stock-Markets / Investing

By: Money_and_Markets

Normally, by this time in December, I'd be with Elisabeth's family on our farm in Brazil. But this year, they've decided to come here to spend the holidays with us, and I'm glad they did. I've lived overseas for many years — two years in Japan, twelve in Brazil. I've crisscrossed Europe and Latin America. I've visited Australia and China. And I've loved every moment of it. But never in my lifetime have I been in a country that provides the same combination of opportunity, security and freedom as the United States. So for me, there's no better place to live. But for my investment dollars, it's a different story ...

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Stock-Markets

Monday, December 18, 2006

Last Warning! Three-Pronged Collapse ... Stocks, Bonds and Real Estate / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Money_and_Markets

Today I want to give you one final warning on the crisis I see coming. I've told you some of this before, but I feel it's so important that it needs to be repeated one last time. Gold's rally back over $600, and recently to more than $640 an ounce, is telling us — in no uncertain terms — that a financial crisis of major proportions is about to strike.

The dollar is telling us the same thing — that the “full faith and credit” of the U.S. Government is plunging ... that all is not well. Just look at how the dollar has been falling against many of the world's currencies ...

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, December 16, 2006

The VIX forecasts a sharp drop in Share prices in January 2007 / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Firstly What is the VIX ? This is an index of implied volatility of the Chicago Board Options on the S&P 500 stock index, The exchange calculates the implied volatility of eight at-the-money or near-the-money strikes (both puts and calls) with a weighted average time to maturity of 30 days. Basically the VIX is a measure of fear in the market. It rises when investors are fearful, as more options are bought, and falls when investors feel less fearful, so buy less options to manage their stock market risk.
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Stock-Markets

Saturday, December 16, 2006

Weekly Stock Market Technical Report / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Mike_Burk

The good news is the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at another all time high last week while the Wilshire 5000 and S&P 500 (SPX) hit a multi year highs.

Short Term
Momentum of downside volume is an indicator that works pretty well from time to time. The chart below is an update from last week covering the past 6 months showing the NASDAQ composite (OTC) in magenta and momentum of NASDAQ downside volume in green. Dashed vertical grey lines have been drawn on the 1st trading day of each month. The indicator has been plotted on an inverted Y axis so increasing downside volume pushes the indicator downward (up is good).

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, December 14, 2006

Graphic Illustration That Scam Lovers Are the Real Turkeys - S&P PE Ratio and Earnings / Stock-Markets / Analysis & Strategy

By: Jas_Jain

Let me remind everyone that all commentaries on politics, economics and investments are about the behavior of the participants, leaders and the led. For the past dozen years, Americans have displayed clear signs of blind faith in one particular human institution - the so-called stock market, which was turned into the Scam Market via the Scam Options fraud that was initiated by collusion between the Corporate Chieftains and the regulators, the Congress and the SEC, who are supposed to protect the investors. Those who still have faith in the current Scam Market, despite all the abuses that has come to fore, are Scam Lovers.
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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, December 13, 2006

India's Sensex Index tumbles by nearly 10% from highs, a buying opportunity ? / Stock-Markets / Analysis & Strategy

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The indian stock market has stormed ahead to new highs , after recovering from the dip during the summer. The market finally paused for breadth as profit taking took the index about 10% lower. The Banking sector led the decline in Bombay including sharp falls in ICICI Bank and HDFC Bank, which was a result of the Reserve Bank of India's decision to tighten liquidity by raising the cash reserve ratio of Banks.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, November 22, 2006

FTSE 100 falls to 6160 on oil price fall and MPC minutes / Stock-Markets / Strategic News

By: Phillipa_Green

Despite moving higher into mid-day, the FTSE slumped to close 42 points lower on the back of a $2 drop in the price of Crude OIl to $55 and fears of a rate rise. A large part of the decline was attributed to declines in a few stocks, namely, DSG, BP, RDSB, Vodafone and HSBC, which pulled the rest of the market lower later in the day on the back continuing worries about the US Economy. Also many stocks went ex-dividend today which further depressed prices. Read full article... Read full article...

 


Stock-Markets

Wednesday, November 22, 2006

Best investing books - Reminiscences of a Stock Operator / Stock-Markets / Resources & Reviews

By: Nadeem_Walayat

http://www.certz.com/exam?linux+

$14 (32% discount)

Reminiscences of a Stock Operator' by Edwin Lefèvre is probably one of the best and well known books on the subject of financial speculation, the book was published as the fictional biography of “Larry Livingston,” but is actually an biography of Jesse Livermore, one of the first famous stock & commodity traders ever. The man started trading after working as a boy in a brokerage house and trading in several of the tiny brokerages called “bucket shops” where small time traders would bet against the house, and eventually went on to become one of the most influential and widely-known traders of his day. He made, lost, and re-made millions at a time.

What you will get from the book are some classic mistakes and the lessons learned from them; some of the best catch phrases in the business; insight into how the markets were manipulated then and probably still are now. One of the most important lessons mentioned in the book is that a trader does not have to be invested in the market all the time.

This is the book from which almost every subsequent general trading book is derived. If you have ever wondered where the trading rule "Never average down" came from, just turn to page 154. Where did the comparison between greed and fear first originate ? Look to page 130.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, November 17, 2006

The risks of Investing in Lebanon / Stock-Markets / Analysis & Strategy

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Following the withdrawal of Israeli forces in 2000, Lebanon experienced a boom in construction as the war ravaged country was rebuilt. A large amount of this reconstruction was destroyed during the war and reoccupation of Lebanon by Israel during 2006. More than the loss of infrastructure, the country has suffered a loss of financial confidence and a slump in stock prices, as once more Lebanon is destablised by political uncertainties as the country divides along religious lines such as the Shites, Sunnis, Druse and the Christians .

Beiruit Stock Exchange Index - The risks and rewards of Investing in Lebanon

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, November 11, 2006

FTSE100 and Dow Jones show signs of having Peaked following US Elections / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The US Mid-term election has come gone, with the stock markets having on cue rallied into the election, now post election the stock markets are starting to waver and could be heading for significant sell off during the traditionally strongest period for stock market gains. Many novices and professionals alike have taken the recent rally to beyond 12,000 in the Dow Jones and to above 6,200 in FTSE 100, as a sign of a Bull Market breakout and a signal to buy.

FTSE100 and Dow Jones show signs of having Peaked post US Elections

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Stock-Markets

Monday, November 06, 2006

Time to invest in Iraq ? / Stock-Markets / Analysis & Strategy

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Usually the best time to invest is when all the news is bad. Given the current situation in Iraq of escalating sectarian violence, one could assume that, that stage has now arrived, with the verdict on Saddam Hussein representing a turning point for the country.

The potential for iraq lies in its vast oil and gas wealth, coupled with an predominantly educated population and low starting GDP growth, with financial help and support from the worlds larges economy (USA), the scene is set for a long-term investment opportunity in Iraq.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, October 22, 2006

US Presidential Cycle Mid-term Election and the Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Nadeem_Walayat

As the Dow Jones hits new highs above 12,000 for the first time, we take a look at what the market should be doing in terms of the long established US Presidential Cycle as we approach the Mid-Term Elections in November.

The Period November 2005 to November 2006, marks the 2nd year of the Presidential Cycle, this period is typically characterised by a general decline in optimism by investors as the president and Congress begin trying to manage difficult budget related issues and generally go about the 'boring' task of running the government.

US Presidential Cycle Mid-term Election and the Stock Market

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Stock-Markets

Monday, October 16, 2006

FTSE 100 Closes at 5 year high of 6172.4 / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The FTSE 100 built on last week's gains to close 15.1 points higher at 6172.4, its highest level since February 2001 as the market took its cue from the US and Asian stock markets.

FTSE 100 Closes at 5 year high of 6172.4

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Stock-Markets

Friday, October 13, 2006

Dow Jones Makes a Fake New High Whilst most of its Component Stocks Don't ! / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets

By: Nadeem_Walayat

As the Dow Jones posts new record highs this month, there is something strange going on with the Dow components where most of them are NOT making new highs !!!

So how many Dow Components are making NEW ALL TIME highs this month ?
FIVE ! That's 5 out of 30 are making new all time highs - WHILST the Index makes NEW highs

How many trading more than 10% below their all time highs ?
TWENTY - Two thirds of the Dow Stocks are trading more than 10% Below their all time highs.

How many are trading more than 20% below their all time highs ?
EIGHTEEN - More than half the Dow 30 Stocks are trading 20% Below their all time highs.

And here's a real shocker ! How many stocks are trading more than 50% ! Below their all time highs !
FIVE DOW STOCKS are trading more than 50% below their all time highs - THATS the same number making new all time highs !

So where am I going with this analysis ? ...... In the run up to the US Election the Dow Jones is Making NEW All time highs, when most of its components are nowhere near making new highs, does this or does this not smell of market manipulation ?

The situation is even worse when you consider the stocks that have been REMOVED from the index ! I.e. Eastman Kodak off 75%, International Paper off 45%. Those that say the markets are not manipulated, then who do you explain these facts ?

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Stock-Markets

Monday, October 09, 2006

Dow Jones Hits New Highs in Lead up the Mid-term Elections / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The Dow Jones has fulfilled the price pattern identified in the July Analysis , having strongly marched higher as buyers rely on the pattern of buying into the run up to the Election as a self fulfilling prophecy, despite the bad news around growth, inflation and interest rates.

The Dow is likely to continue to hold into the Elections and then correct. The degree of correction depends on how high the market goes between now and the elections, but regardless of the results a correction is expected, as both the Dow and other Stock Markets squeeze in the usual Seasonal bull run into December into October instead.

Dow Jones Hits New Highs in Lead up the Mid-term Elections

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