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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Stock-Markets

Monday, December 03, 2018

Global Economic Perceptions Are Shifting - Asia China Markets Risks / Stock-Markets / Asian Economies

By: Chris_Vermeulen

The continued efforts of our research team to identify and quantify the possibility that the capital shift which has taken place over the past 18+ months may be shifting to other assets is in the interest of all global investors.  Is there a new, more opportunistic investment that will take away from the capital that has been rushing into the US equity markets over the past 2+ years or is the capital shift towards the US equity markets still intact?  These are the questions before us and these are the questions that will determine if the US equity markets continue to rally or continue to top out.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, December 03, 2018

Weekly Charts and Update on Equity Markets, FX Trades and Commodities / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018

By: FXCOT

Japan’s Nikkei 225, China’s Shanghai Composite and South Korea’s Kospi stock indexes gained 2.2%, 2% and 1.6%, respectively. The Chinese yuan rose 0.36% to about 6.925 per U.S. dollar. Ahead of the U.S. open, S&P 500 futures also climbed 1.5%. President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping approved the deal on Saturday in Buenos Aires. It offers Beijing a reprieve from a planned increase in tariffs, scheduled for Jan. 1, on $200 billion in Chinese goods exports to the U.S. Tariffs were scheduled to rise to 25% from 10%.

We have been long equity markets in Novemeber from 2640 here: Be long S&P Since our trade, the equity markets have rallied over +4% in Novemeber.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, December 03, 2018

Stock Market Key (Short-term) Support Holds / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX: Long-term trend – Bullish, but correcting within the long-term bull market trend.

Intermediate trend –  bearish correction has started which could retrace as low as 2200 before it is complete

Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts.  It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends

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Stock-Markets

Monday, December 03, 2018

Stocks Bull Market Tops Are a Process / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Troy_Bombardia

The U.S. stock market rallied last week and is now sitting just under its 200 day moving average.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, December 03, 2018

More Late-cycle Signs for the Stock Market and What’s Next / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Troy_Bombardia

The S&P 500 is sitting right under its 200 day moving average right now. The stock market is demonstrating various late-cycle signs. These late-cycle signs are not immediately long term bearish, but it demonstrates that the long term winds will change in 2019.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, December 02, 2018

A Post-Powell View of USD, S&P 500 and Gold / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018

By: Gary_Tanashian

The Fed blinked. This was not news to Macro Tourist Kevin Muir or readers of Biiwii.com, which is very pleased to publish his work.

Fed Finally Blinks

Amid a weakening global economy, gathering signs of weakening in the US economy and a dump in inflation expectations, Jerome Powell implied that the Fed may be going on hold for a while after a December rate hike.

This graph from SG Cross Asset Research/Equity Quant by way of Kevin Muir’s article attempts to show that the accumulated rate hike tightening and “shadow” tightening as a result of QE suspension has now met or exceeded the levels that preceded the last two economic recessions.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, December 02, 2018

Elliott Wave: SPX Decision Time Is Coming Soon / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading

By: ElliottWaveForecast

The SPX Index is trading within a Blue Box in our system, these boxes are areas in which the Market needs to define whether it will become an Impulsive sequence which runs in 5-9-13 waves or corrective sequence in which runs in 3-7-11 waves. Many traders who follow The Elliott wave Theory understand the idea of 5 waves followed by 3 waves back as shown in the following chart.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, November 30, 2018

Global Economic Perceptions Are Shifting Imnplications for Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Our researchers spent a good portion of the holiday weekend researching a continued capital shift that is taking place in the US equities markets and throughout the global market.  Over the past 20+ months, a massive capital shift has taken place where investment capital fled weaker global economies and rushed into the US stock market because of a tremendous value opportunity that existed at that time.  Technology, Biotech and many others equity sectors were skyrocketing – in some cases 2~3% a month.  This ROI, along with the benefit of a stronger US Dollar, created a very unique environment where foreign capital could rush into the US markets, land pretty much anywhere and become relatively safe from foreign risks/devaluation.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, November 30, 2018

The US Economy is Getting Worse. What this Means for Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Troy_Bombardia

The U.S. economy is starting to deteriorate, which is what typically happens in the last year of a bull market.

Let’s determine the stock market’s most probable direction by objectively quantifying technical analysis. For reference, here’s the random probability of the U.S. stock market going up on any given day, week, or month.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, November 29, 2018

Stocks Rallied, New Uptrend? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Paul_Rejczak

Stocks rallied on Wednesday following breaking out above their week-long consolidation. The S&P 500 accelerated higher after breaking above 2,700 mark. Will the uptrend continue? Or is this just another advance within a consolidation following the October sell-off?

The U.S. stock market indexes gained 2.3-3.0% on Wednesday, as investors sentiment much improved following breaking out above the recent trading range. The S&P 500 index got back above the level of 2,700. It currently trades 6.7% below September the 21st record high of 2,940.91. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 2.5% and the Nasdaq Composite gained 3.0% on Wednesday.

The nearest important level of resistance of the S&P 500 index is now at 2,750, marked by some previous local highs. The resistance level is also at 2,780-2,800, among others. On the other hand, the level of support is at 2,680-2,700, marked by the recent resistance level.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, November 29, 2018

The Fed Will Probably Stop Hiking Rates in 2019. What’s Next for Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Troy_Bombardia

Well that was quick. Less than 2 months ago Fed chairman Powell said that interest rates were “far below neutral” (implying that rates needed to be hiked much more). After the stock market has fallen 10%, Powell now thinks that “interest rates are close to being neutral” (implying that fewer rate hikes are needed).

The stock market rallied on this news.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, November 29, 2018

Stock Market Santa Rally Still a GO to Dow 27,000? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Virtually immediately after I posted last weeks Dow trend forecast updatethat we were a GO for the Santa rally, the Dow decided to take a tumble by falling to a low for the week of 24,285 a sizeable 1100 point drop since my last update. So is the the Santa rally still a go or has fundamental damage been done for the prospects for a Santa rally?

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, November 28, 2018

Watch This Picture As Asset Prices Fall / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018

By: F_F_Wiley

“It is high time we rediscovered the role of the financial cycle in macroeconomics.” —Claudio Borio, Bank for International Settlements

In May, we queued up the b-side of a record describing America’s balance sheet—we looked at the mix of lenders instead of the usual “a-side” analysis of the borrowers.

We showed that the balance sheet includes four types of lenders—banks, the Fed, foreigners and prior domestic saving—as in the updated chart below. And the “prior domestic saving” category, since you asked, is mostly households, pension funds and insurance companies investing in bonds and bond funds.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, November 28, 2018

Four Reasons Why a US China Trade Deal Isn’t Coming This Weekend… / Stock-Markets / Protectionism

By: Graham_Summers

Stock markets are rallying today on the belief that somehow the US and China will sign a trade deal at the upcoming G-20 meeting.

Investors are buying this narrative despite the facts that…

1)   The Trump administration has already admitted that a deal is highly UN-likely.

2)   The Trump administration has also admitted that the next round of tariffs (25%) will hit in January (meaning no deal by then).

3)   The US and China have yet to reach ANY kind of remote agreement on anything. Indeed, they don’t even appear to be openly negotiating at the moment.

4)   Large-scale trade deals that resolve decades-old structural issues between the two largest economies in the world do NOT get resolved by a 1-on-1 face to face meeting that lasts a few hours.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, November 28, 2018

Are We Approaching A "Once-In-A-Century" Type Stock Market Event? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Avi_Gilburt

As many of you know, I will often read articles written by others -- along with the comments -- to gauge the overall sentiment of the market from an anecdotal perspective. During one of my recent perusals of articles, I noticed a quote of the following statement by Sir John Templeton:

"For 100 years optimists have carried the day in U.S. stocks. Even in the dark 70's, many professional money managers, and many individual investors too, made money in stocks, especially those of smaller companies.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, November 28, 2018

When Will the Stocks Bull Market End? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Troy_Bombardia

As we approach the final month of this year, it’s worth reflecting on our thoughts and actions over the past year. Reflection is how you become a better investor and trader.

I posted the following chart in December 2017. Interesting how this year’s max drawdown is pretty much inline with the average drawdown of -12%

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, November 27, 2018

The Yield Curve Will Invert Soon. What’s Next for the Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Troy_Bombardia

December is almost here, and some traders are looking forward to the Santa Claus Rally. We demonstrated that seasonality is not consistent. Hence, seasonality factors are of secondary importance.

Let’s determine the stock market’s most probable direction by objectively quantifying technical analysis. For reference, here’s the random probability of the U.S. stock market going up on any given day, week, or month.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Stock-Markets

Monday, November 26, 2018

Stock Market Sentiment Improves - Upward Reversal or Just Another Bounce? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Paul_Rejczak

Stocks slightly extended their downtrend on Friday despite a long-holiday-weekend shortened trading session. The S&P 500 index traded closer to its late October low. Will it reverse upwards off the support level?

The U.S. stock market indexes lost 0.5-0.7% on Friday, as investors' sentiment remained bearish following the recent declines. The S&P 500 index fell slightly below its Tuesday's local low. It got closer to the late October low of 2,603.54. The index is currently trading 10.6% below September the 21st record high of 2,940.91. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.7% and the Nasdaq Composite lost 0.5% on Friday.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, November 26, 2018

Trading Charts and Setups: Chances of a FED Interest Rate Hike Falling / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018

By: FXCOT

As equity markets make a topping formation and US 10 year yield retest 3% level, the chances of a FED hike in 2019 is declining. Govt pressure will build up on Powell into 2019 and we believe this will damage FED ability to freely raise rates even if they wish to. We highlight a few key charts and setups to watch out for as you start a new trading week.

2018 has been a difficult years for every single asset class. The mutual fund industry is bleeding and hedge fund managers are struggling to stay afloat. Traditional investment models do not work any more. This is a year in which both bonds and stocks fell together. Traditional models work on shifting money from one asset class to another. However this year, all classes bled. This year, set apart the genius managers from the ordinary. Fxcot trading system which is primarily a EURUSD, USDJPY trading system has made over 90% this year which is truly incredible given the performance of hedge funds.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, November 26, 2018

These 'Facts' About The Stock Market Will Continue To Get You Whipsawed / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Avi_Gilburt

I have been getting such a chuckle from the market of late.

As the market made its way down to our 2600 target region towards the end of October, more and more market participants and analysts became more and more bearish. In fact, the bearishness was palpable as we approached 2600SPX.

However, our analysis suggested that the market should bottom in the 2600SPX region, and begin a corrective rally, which then topped at 2815SPX.

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