Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Thursday, April 11, 2013

Why Bank Bail in and Bail out Wont Work. Case study Iceland and Greece / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2013

By: Sam_Chee_Kong

As most of us can remember that Iceland was the first country that went down during the last Global Financial Crisis in 2008. During that time Iceland had done something remarkable and that is during the five years prior to the crisis, managed to transform its economy from a fishing industry to a mega hedge fund country. Many of its citizens left their traditional trade which is fishing to become fund managers and salesman. As a result Iceland’s banking assets (physical assets + Loans + Reserves + Investment securities) grown to more than 10x its GDP of $14 billion.  With such high leverage, when the financial crisis struck it is unable to defend its economy and hence its house of cards collapsed.

The purpose of this article is a post-event analysis of the performance of the Icelandic economy that refuses a bailout as compared to Greece which went for a bailout with the injection of funds from Troika. To simplify matters, we shall coin the bail-in and bail-out as (BIBO) for short. Of course in the short term it helped stabilized the Greek economy for a while but we want to know to what extent it had transformed the Greek economy in the long run with the accompanying terms and conditions and austerity measures. In this article we shall compare the performance of both the economies of Iceland and Greece with the economic indicators or metrics below from the year 2002 to the present. We believed we have been fed with too much toxics by the mainstream medias which are also own by them that capitalized on the age old investment axiom of good-to-good.

Wednesday, April 10, 2013

Stock Market SPX Final Thrust Higher / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

Several EW analysts have taken a stab at labeling the wave structure on the SPX. Every one has completely missed the Broadening Top structure. As a result, they are mis-labeling the waves, IMO. Broadening Tops are known to be completely populated with corrective, a-b-c waves. That is still so, especially in the final thrust, which I have labeled.

Wednesday, April 10, 2013

German DAX – Different Country, Different Culture. People Are People / Stock-Markets / European Stock Markets

By: Michael_Noonan

The one common denominator that crosses all cultures, even religions, is money. It is the global equalizer. We take a look at the DAX, Germany’s stock market. Do the “precise” Germans fare any better at investing than at, say, building cars?. Likely not. Money goes to the core of the human psyche as the fundamental driver for tapping into the fear/greed element from which few escape, at least when it comes to investing.

Unfortunately, DAX does not have volume, a vital element that shows the ebb and flow of two incredibly important principles, supply and demand. Why it volume so important? It shows the effect from the cause factor of investors/traders making buy/sell decisions.

Wednesday, April 10, 2013

Taking Economic and Market Statistics and Data Distortion at Face Value / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2013

By: John_Mauldin

Last Friday I was in Sonoma, California, for Mike Shedlock’s investment conference. The weather was grey and gloomy, but the conversation was animated and bright. I was fully engaged the whole day and never more than when John Hussman was speaking, commenting, or asking tough questions. John and I have talked on the phone and corresponded for years but had never met. What a consummate gentleman and scholar. We felt like we had been old friends for years and committed to finding opportunities in the future to get together and compare notes in person.

John is no stranger to long-time readers of Outside the Box, as he has probably been the source of more OTBs than any other writer. John and I share a common foe that focuses our attention: a weekly deadline that we sometimes battle long into the night. This week John shares with us some of the insights he presented in Sonoma. One quick quote that I bet will spark your interest:

Tuesday, April 09, 2013

Stock Market Long Cycle- Part II / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis

By: Ed_Carlson

In last week's Commentary I showed how Lindsay's long cycle divided the historical chart of the Dow into what we normally refer to as secular bull and bear markets and noted how closely related each cycle was in its time duration. I also pointed out how the cycle lows Lindsay identified were somewhat different than what other analysts use but that he did so using very specific, rules-based methods to identify those cycle lows rather than just "eye-balling" a chart. These rules are explained in the book An Aid to Timing. Using this approach enables us to forecast the low of the current secular bear market (2023).

Tuesday, April 09, 2013

Euro and Gold Topping, Japan Not in Control of its Destiny / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2013

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

It appears that XEU has finally completed its Intermediate Wave [2] and is ready for a strong Wave [3]. XEU has both a Broadening Top and a Head & Shoulders pattern to help Wave [3] along.

Tuesday, April 09, 2013

Stock Market Head and Shoulders Pattern Top / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

SPX extended a bit more than I had anticipated, but my “irregular correction” label stuck.

SPX now has a small Head & Shoulders formation with a Minimum target of 1505.34. That may just be a start, IMO. The February low was 1485.01 and the SPX may be more apt to match that low. This may set up a new Head & Shoulders patterm with a target of 1390 or lower.

Tuesday, April 09, 2013

Stock Market From Hollow To Green..... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013

By: Jack_Steiman

Friday was the big opportunity the bears had been waiting for, really nasty employment data to go along with a huge gap down. There it was. All for the taking. Seize the day you bears! No dice. They seized nothing. They let it get away. They had their knee on the throats of those bulls but let them up again. Give the bears credit though. They tried again today. The futures were up nice early but gave way as the morning wore on pre market. We opened a drop higher but it took only moments for the market to sell across the board. It started to look as if the bears were about to laugh their way to head fake from Friday, but, once again, it didn't last in terms of the selling.

Monday, April 08, 2013

Japan's Stocks Bull Market Almost No One Loves / Stock-Markets / Japanese Stock Market

By: Investment_U

Alexander Green writes: The Tokyo market is up nearly 40% over the last six months. This is the strongest bull market in the developed world right now. Yet most American investors are missing it entirely.

Don’t be one of them. This is likely the beginning of a major bull market with plenty of room to run. Let me explain why and give you three great ways to play it.

Monday, April 08, 2013

Japan Hyper QE Inflation Wars, Bank of England's Bail-in Secret, Buy Gold, Silver? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2013

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Many Gold and Silver commentators have repeatedly been shocked into silence as their expectations for a mega bull run to $2,000 continues to not only fail to materialise but the market's appear to have gone mad in the wake of Cyprus's banking system exploding in spectacular style resulting in the overt theft of a growing percentage of deposits that could reach as high as 85% as the following real life example illustrates to what an 85% theft of this customers bank balance at Laiki Bank actually looks like -

Monday, April 08, 2013

Will there be Stock Market Shock and Awe this Week? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

Those of you who followed me on YorbaTV on Thursday have a leg-up on what’s happening. On Friday, we broke the daily Ending Diagonal pattern with an immediate target of 1343.35 (November 16 low). In fact, my Cycles Model also agrees by suggesting an initial low near Cycle Bottom support at 1333.74. Things could start speeding up from here.

Monday, April 08, 2013

Stock Market Top Formation in Place / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX: Very Long-term trend - The very-long-term cycles are in their down phases, and if they make their lows when expected (after this bull market is over), there will be another steep decline into late 2014. However, the severe correction of 2007-2009 may have curtailed the full downward pressure potential of the 40-yr and 120-yr cycles.

Intermediate trend - The uptrend from 1343 appears to have topped

Sunday, April 07, 2013

Stock Market S&P Bear Calls Have ALL Missed / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013

By: Michael_Noonan

Salivating Bears have been calling for a market top for over 4 years, now, and none have been right. The sentiment is understood but misplaced. This goes to show how markets are not predictable, but people are. So many want to exercise the FILO inventory premise: First In Last Out. It is so difficult to check egos at the door for there is a huge difference in being right and being profitable.

Sunday, April 07, 2013

Sign That a Stock Market Boom Is Headed Our Way / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013

By: DailyWealth

Dr. David Eifrig writes: Last week, I showed you a handful of charts that dispel a common misconception... one that is keeping thousands of retirees up at night.

I dispelled the idea that the U.S. economy is running off the rails... that we are in a recession, or worse, a depression.

Sunday, April 07, 2013

These Insiders Are Fleeing the Stock Market… Should You Too? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013

By: Investment_U

Alexander Green writes: The financial media is full of scary new reports indicating investors should cut back on stocks or flee the market altogether. The reason? SEC data show a high ratio of insider selling.

I’ve been following insider activity in the stock market for decades, and while officers and directors are the epitome of “smart money,” the mainstream media – as usual – is painting an incomplete picture.

Saturday, April 06, 2013

Stock Market Downtrend Likely Underway / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013

By: Tony_Caldaro

An interesting week to say the least. Despite making new uptrend highs at SPX 1574 on Tuesday, then plunging to 1540 by Friday, many pundits are still guessing the direction of this market medium term. For the week the SPX/DOW were -0.55%, and the NDX/NAZ were -1.50%. Asian markets lost 1.1%, European markets lost 2.1%, and the DJ World index lost 1.3%. On the economic front, despite the disappointing Jobs report, the week ended with positive reports slightly ahead. On the uptick: construction spending, factory orders, auto sales, consumer credit, the monetary base, and both the unemployment rate and trade deficit improved. On the downtick: ISM manufacturing/services, the ADP index, monthly payrolls, the WLEI and weekly jobless claims rose. Next week we get to read the FOMC minutes, and receive reports on retail sales and consumer sentiment.

Saturday, April 06, 2013

Stock Market Big Gap Down But NO Follow Through....Hollows Abound..... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013

By: Jack_Steiman

The bears finally got the news they so sorely needed. The market wasn't ready for another disappointment regarding economic slowing, but the number on the Jobs Report was quite poor. 88,000 jobs created instead of the 200,000 that was expected. The futures weren't very happy in front of the report and certainly wasn't happy after it. The futures fell hard allowing for a large gap down open. The real question once the large gap down occurred was whether the market would have a day that saw the gap and run lower, or would it be gap and reverse some, allowing for hollow red candles.

Saturday, April 06, 2013

Riding the Big Profits Kahuna for How Much Longer? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2013

By: DeepCaster_LLC

Indeed, the Equities and Bond Markets have been riding The Big Kahuna of Fed, ECB, Bank of England (and now the Bank of Japan’s) Q.E. et al. for several Years Now.

But for how much longer can Investors expect to ride these Market Boosting Central Bank Injections and other Interventions before Disaster strikes and the use of QE reveals itself to be clearly Counter Productive.

Saturday, April 06, 2013

The Time is Now for Your Income Plan / Stock-Markets / Investing 2013

By: Don_Miller

I have a friend who says, “Why make a decision today if it can be put off until tomorrow?”

While that might sound cute, waiting until the transmission on your car is totally broken and having the vehicle towed to a dealer for a trade-in certainly isn’t the optimal way to negotiate the price of a new vehicle. You can’t drive around and shop at other dealers to get a decent price.

Saturday, April 06, 2013

The Real Stock Market SPX Record Highs / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013

By: Zeal_LLC

The US stock markets enjoyed an incredible first quarter, with the flagship S&P 500 stock index (SPX) surging 10.0%.  New cyclical-bull highs were achieved on an amazing 3/7ths of all Q1’s trading days!  But the most interesting one was certainly the last.  On Q1’s final trading day, the SPX edged up to a new all-time record high.  Though celebrated with great fanfare, adjusted for inflation it was far from a record.