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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Stock-Markets

Monday, December 28, 2015

Chinese Markets Short Term Mess But Long Term Opportunity? / Stock-Markets / Chinese Stock Market

By: Sol_Palha

A bird doesn't sing because it has an answer, it sings because it has a song. Maya Angelou

In the short term, China is still a mess, and the reasons are all but obvious.  Greed and stupidity fuelled the bubble that popped back in June of this year.  Some estimates put the number of individuals opening new accounts without high school diplomas at over 60%. Secondly, a large portion of these investors were playing the markets with borrowed money, otherwise known as trading on margin. Making matters worse to circumvent the limits placed by regular margin trading, many turned to the shadowy banking sector, where one could borrow up to ten times the value of one’s stock holding. At the height of the mania over 500,000 new brokerage accounts were being opened per week, a clear sign that the masses were ecstatic and believed that the market could only trend higher. When you couple Greed with stupidity, the result is always unpleasant.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, December 28, 2015

Stock Market Aggressive Sell Signals / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

SPX appears to be testing the trendline of its Orthodox Broadening Top formation and is expected to make a small bounce. At this moment, I would call the status of its current position as an aggressive sell signal, while a drop beneath the trendline at 2041.00 would turn it to a confirmed sell.

The famous stock trader, Jesse Livermore once said, “Money is made by sitting, not trading.” In this case, a short position carried since our first sell signal in early November still has value, while attempting to trade the Triangle would have led to a series of frustrations, if not losses.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, December 28, 2015

SPX, TNX Both Threatening a Breakdown / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2015

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

Good Morning!

The SPX Premarket is down nearly 8 points as I write. It is possible that it has formed another Triangle formation, just as it did prior to the August panic. If so, we may see a break to the downside sometime this week. Most other analysts are focused on the idea that this is bullish. A break of the lower trendline will be proof that it isn’t.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, December 28, 2015

Stock Market No Clear Short-Term Direction - Topping Pattern? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Paul_Rejczak

Briefly: In our opinion, no speculative positions are justified.

Our intraday outlook is now neutral, and our short-term outlook is neutral:

Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): neutral
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): neutral
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): bearish
Long-term outlook (next year): bullish

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Stock-Markets

Monday, December 28, 2015

Crude Oil, SP500, Exxon Mobil - When Will They Bottom? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2015

By: Chris_Vermeulen

A full blown bear market in energy resources and energy stocks has been underway since mid-2014. History shows that the price of crude oil typically bottoms before the broad stock market. And oil related stocks bottom at the same time or later than the broad market.

The monthly chart below shows how oil bottoms several months before the stock market does. This provides us with some insight on when we should start to expect a bear market to end in the US stock market.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, December 28, 2015

Stocks Bear Market is On Hold For Now / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX: Long-term trend - Still Bull Market?

SPX: Intermediate trend - The index may have made a secondary top at the 2104 level and started another decline of intermediate duration.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discuss longer market trends.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, December 27, 2015

Stock Market, GDX Topping Again? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Brad_Gudgeon

Since it is still the Holiday Season, I am making this article brief. The SPX is at the 16 TD top 3 TD as of Christmas Eve. There is an 8 TD top due Dec 30 2 TD's with the moon in Leo/Virgo on the 29th. On the 29th, Mercury squares Mars, and again this will happen on the 5th of January (these are negative). Last time we had a top like this (moon in Leo/Virgo) was Dec 1/2. Christmas Eve was the 4/8 TD low, so we may see a pop up on Monday. It looks similar to the late July top right now, so it could go into Dec 30 and as high as 2092/95. The Put/Call ratios are also very similar to that time frame.

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, December 26, 2015

Deflation is Backā€¦ Will It Lead to Another Market Crash? / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash

By: Graham_Summers

Central Bankers are flummoxed.

Having cut interest rates over 600 times since 2009 (and printed over $15 trillion), they’ve yet to generate the expected economic growth.

Despite these failures, the ECB, and the Bank of Japan are currently engaging massive QE programs. The Fed is the only major Central Bank not rapidly expanding its balance sheet.

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, December 26, 2015

Stocks Bull Market Continues / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Tony_Caldaro

The market started the week at SPX 2006. On Monday the market gapped up at the open, traded back down to SPX 2006 then closed where it opened at 2021. Tuesday and Wednesday displayed gap up openings as well, as the market traded up to SPX 2065. Thursday’s half day trading was quiet, but the rally hit SPX 2067 before ending the week at 2061. For the week the SPX/DOW gained 2.65%, the NDX/NAZ gained 2.50%, and the DJ World index gained 2.30%. Economic reports for the week were positive. On the uptick: the FHFA, PCE, personal income/spending, consumer sentiment, plus weekly jobless claims improved. On the downtick: Q3 GDP, existing/new home sales, and Q4 GDPn. Next week is of course is the New Year, markets will be closed Friday, and reports will be highlighted by the Chicago PMI and Case-Shiller.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, December 24, 2015

Stocks in Interest Rate Hike Cycles / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Zeal_LLC

The stock-market outlook in 2016 is riddled with great uncertainty following the Fed ending its 7-year-old zero-interest-rate policy.  With the first rate-hike cycle in nearly a decade just getting underway, traders are anxiously wondering how it will impact the stock markets.  While raising rates out of ZIRP is radically unprecedented, stock-market reactions during past rate-hike cycles still offer some interesting insights.

The Federal Reserve’s monetary-policy decisions are no longer peripheral concerns for stock-market fortunes.  Thanks to the Fed’s extreme easing of recent years, its actions have usurped everything else to become the stock markets’ overwhelmingly dominant driver.  And unfortunately the wildly-outsized upside impact on stock prices by the uber-dovish Fed is highly likely to portend proportional downside.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, December 24, 2015

Stock Market End of Year Winning Trade Forecast / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Yesterday December 23rd we closed out a nice winning trade in XLE energy sector. If you have not yet closed the trade can should do so today and will locking an even larger gain of 4-5% return in only three days.

The stock market closes early today at 1 pm ET. Today volume will be light and its not worth sitting around watching or trying to trade in my opinion. The best trade for today is to spend quality time with your family and friends.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, December 24, 2015

S&P 500 Clears Huge Moving-Average Resistance... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Jack_Steiman

So what do we make of today's move above two critical, exponential moving averages on the S&P 500. Price talks. Emotion gets in the way. Play what you see. So today we see that the S&P 500 has made the move above those critical moving averages, but we saw this a week back and then the market collapsed right back down. A head fake. Is this head fake number two? Only time will tell. The oscillators are strong on this particular move, so other than short-term overbought, it should try to hang in there better this time. Should is the key word, if we can unwind overbought without too much price erosion that would be a good thing for the bulls to hang their collective bullishness on. How any stock or index pulls back from overbought can be just as if not more important in how it goes higher. If the oscillators pull back to the near neutral zone and price holds this gap up that would be bad news for the bears. You only know when it's occurring, but the move today does seem better than last week's attempt to clear those moving averages due to better looking oscillators.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, December 23, 2015

Stock Market Risk On? Risk Off? Find Out Where Your Money Lies / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: EWI

A peek at the new free report from the editors of our Financial Forecast Service

It's almost Christmas, "the hap-happiest season of all." Yet, here's a sobering fact for U.S. investors: S&P 500 stocks are actually lower now than at the end of last year (chart: Google Finance):

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, December 23, 2015

Stock Market SPX Being Repelled by Resistance / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

SPX challenged its trio of resistances this afternoon. The Intermediate-term was the last to be challenged at 2064.18. The 50-day was at 2063.14 and the 200-day (not shown) is at 2061.50. A decline beneath that final level appears to have put SPX back on a sell signal.

SPX has now reached breakeven with the December 31. 2014 close at 2058.90. What comes next?

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, December 23, 2015

Stock Market Breadth-less, Volume-less Rally May be Over / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

Good Morning!

The SPX Premarket appears to be marginally higher than yesterday’s print high. Whether today’s opening and subsequent prices stay beneath yesterday’s high remain to be seen.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, December 23, 2015

COT Report in the Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Submissions

Sasafuturestrading writes: The COT report is issued on Thursday evenings by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.  What it does is break down the amount of buying and selling done by three groups: Commercials, Large Traders, and Small Traders.

The largest powers in the marketplace are the Commercials.  These are the large users and producers of the commodity.  They do not use the commodity markets to speculate or directly make money in the markets. They are producers and users of the commodity, so they sell forward or hedge their production/demand. They use the markets for selling and delivery, not speculating.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, December 23, 2015

SPX May be Turniing at the 50% Retracement Level / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

I am remiss in not bringing up the Orthodox Broadening Top trendline as a potential target for this retracement. It appears that SPX may have just turned at 2042.74 while the exact location of the trendline is at 2041.61. The 50% retracement point is 2041.57. While I did mention the 50% level this morning, I had not recently calculated the position of the trendline. Now that I have located it properly in the chart, you can see how many times (at least 5) it has provided support in the past month. Today it finally appears to act as resistance.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, December 22, 2015

Is The BBC Global 30 Index Signalling a Stock Market Top? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Sol_Palha

"A wise man is he who does not grieve for the thing which he has not, but rejoices for those which he has." ~ Epictetus

Much the same way many experts felt that the NYSE was issuing a series of death signals, there are just as many who share the same sentiment towards the signals the Global BBC 30 Index is supposedly issuing. This index is thought to provide a more accurate reflection of what is going on in the markets as it is based on the economic data of 30 of the world's largest companies. In today's world where manipulation is the order of the day, over-reliance on such an index might not be the most prudent of actions. It has, however, confirmed that volatility levels have surged to the moon, but of course, we already knew this would occur as this was predicted well in advance by the Market volatility indicator (V-indicator).

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, December 22, 2015

Stock Market Retracement Not Yet Complete / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Sol_Palha

SPX appears to need one more probe higher to 2033.00 – 2035.00. Of note is that the Fibonacci retracement of 38.2% is at 2033.27, so this retracement appears to be quite muted, compared to earlier ones. Of course, it may go higher, so the 50% retracement is at 2041.57, just in case...

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, December 22, 2015

Stock Market Reversal Day / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

Good Morning!

SPX appears to have completed an impulse from its Thursday morning high. The correction, which is nearly complete, appears to be a flat one, indicating a further decline ahead. Today is a Pivot day, suggesting a reversal may be about to take place.

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